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ALIBABA, SPECULATION MODE ON!Alibaba Group Holding Limited, also known as Alibaba Group and Alibaba.com, is a Chinese multinational technology company specializing in e-commerce, retail, Internet, and technology. Strong divergence on the monthly. The price level at which Alibaba now stands has always been characterized by high volatility in the past. The market has always reacted with a reabsorption over 60% of the time in the past at this level. This opens the scenario to an interesting short-term speculative operation which, in the event of a positive outcome, could turn into a medium-term operation on an asset which, ignoring short-term problems, creates several points of GDP for the Chinese economy. High risk transaction, the investor should consider the volatility of the underlying and the riskiness of the transaction in managing this asset.
NYSE:BABALong
by UnknownUnicorn25541012
SF Holding Announces H1 2021 Financial ResultsDuring the six months up to and ending in June, the company generated CNY 88.34 billion in operating revenue, up by 24.2%. According to SF Holding's financial announcement for the first half of 2021: - Operating revenue rose by 24.2%, reaching CNY 88.34 billion. - The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was CNY 760 million (drop 79.8% year-on-year), of which the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 and Q2 was CNY -989 million and CNY 1.75 billion, respectively. - The express logistics business volume was 5.13 billion tickets, achieving a year-on-year increase of 40.4%. The average increase was 59.5% over the past two years, higher than the industry's average growth rate of 33.4% in the same period. - The reported revenue of SF Express was CNY 61.1 billion. The total revenue of the new business segment increased by 43.77% year-on-year, contributing more than 48% of the revenue increment, and the proportion of revenue increased from 26.69% to 30.89% in the same period of 2020. - The revenue of SF Express business reached CNY 11.51 billion, through the cooperation mode of SF Express direct sales network, Shunxin Jetta Franchise network and other resources. The increasing portion for the overall LCL volume, the direct sales network volume and the franchise network volume was 81.3%, 88.7% and 62.5%, respectively. - SF's local emergency delivery business realized a tax-free operating income of CNY 2.241 billion (up 77.12% year-on-year), which was higher than the average growth rate of the industry. - By the end of the reporting period, the number of one-stop home service orders of SF Express had increased by more than 400% year-on-year, and the service timeliness rate reached 99.29% high, the service category had increased by 45% year-on-year. - SF cold chain business (including food cold transportation and pharmaceutical logistics) achieved an overall tax-free operating revenue of CNY 3.72 billion (up 14.79% year-on-year), while the supply chain business realized an operating income excluding tax of CNY 5.29 billion (up 79.02% year-on-year). - SF International Express's tax-free operating revenue reached CNY 3.28 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.94%, covering 78 overseas countries and regions. During the reporting period, SF International opened 8 new flows and 9 new international all-cargo aircraft routes. - By the end of the reporting period, SF Holding had accumulated total assets of CNY 133.39 billion, increasing by 20% compared with that of the end of 2020. The net assets attributable to shareholders of listed companies were CNY 56.68 billion (up 0.42%). Meanwhile, the liability ratio increased from 48.94% on December 31, 2020, to 57.04% on June 30, 2021.
SZSE:002230
by EqualOcean
JD.com Published 2021 Q2 Financial ResultsThe overall revenue performance is positive. According to JD's (JD:NASDAQ) financial announcement for the second quarter of 2021: - The net income rose by 26.2%, reaching CNY 253.8 billion. - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders was CNY 790 million, compared with CNY 16.4 billion in the same period in 2020. While under non-GAAP, it was CNY 4.6 billion, down from CNY 5.9 billion in the same period last year. - The operating revenue slumped to CNY 300 million from CNY 5 billion in the same period last year. - As of June 30, 2021, the number of employees in JD.com listed companies and non-listed companies was nearly 400,000, becoming the company with the largest number of employees in domestic private enterprises. - For the twelve months ending June 30, 2021, JD’s cash flow was CNY 38.9 billion (up from CNY 26.3 billion previously). - Excluding the impact of JD Baitiao on the operating cash flow, the free cash flow for the twelve months ending on June 30, 2021, was CNY 31.9 billion, compared with CNY 22.7 billion in the same period last year. - For the twelve months ending June 30, 2021, the number of active purchasers of JD.com was 532 million, achieving a net increase of 115 million over the same period last year. It also set a record for attracting 32 million new users in a single quarter. Among them, more than 70% of the products purchased by active users are delivered to third- to sixth-tier cities.
NASDAQ:JD
by EqualOcean
Growing Stocks to Watch in the Chinese Market: (NFH:NYSE)● The regulatory and other uncertainties in the Chinese market directly impact sectors like fintech, gaming and education. ● Winners will be companies that have benefited from the regulatory change or captured the newly emerging opportunities. ● We are bullish on Hailiang Education, WiMi Hologram Cloud, 360 DigiTech and New Frontier Health and will explain the reasons in this article. New Frontier Health (NFH:NYSE) New Frontier Health, the parent company of one of Asia's largest high-end medical service providers – United Family Healthcare, offers customized healthcare services. The company includes over 600 full-time doctors from 25 countries, over 1,000 part-time specialists and over 1,000 nurses. In early 2020, the COVID-19 outbreak affected the company's business. resulting in a lower income level at the pediatric and O.B departments that year. However, it is clear now that New Frontier is recovering from the pandemic with growing revenue, narrowing net losses and upping EBITDA, while it has been dropping operating expenses. It is proven that the overall operational efficiency and profitability have been improved. In February of 2021, the buying party of New Frontier made a privatization offer to buy back all the common stocks at USD 12 per share, to delist the company from the NYSE. The next step will be the IPO on the Hong Kong bourse. Aging China presents new growth opportunities for private healthcare companies. the planned exchange 'migration' may also help the company to overcome undervaluation in the US capital market and gain more recognition from the local investors in Hong Kong. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NLong
by EqualOcean
Growing Stocks to Watch in the Chinese Market: (WIMI:NASDAQ)The regulatory and other uncertainties in the Chinese market directly impact sectors like fintech, gaming, and education. Winners will be companies that have benefited from the regulatory change or captured the newly emerging opportunities. WiMi Hologram Cloud (WIMI:NASDAQ) WiMi Hologram Cloud is one of China's top holographic Cloud technical solution providers that focuses on AR automotive HUD software, 3D holographic pulse LiDAR and holographic microelectronics. Frost & Sullivan, for instance, described WiMi's holographic AR application platform as one covering the most comprehensive set of AR products in China. WiMi reported a 140% year-over-year increase in revenue from CNY 319 million in 2019 to CNY 766 million in 2020. The net income before the impact of stock compensation expenses was CNY 40.3 million in 2020, presenting a decreasing trend mainly due to a 362.8% increase in R&D expenditure. Also, with the increasing application solutions demand on the 3D vision-related semiconductors, WiMi broke into the market. WiMi's 56% of the 2020 revenue was contributed by its semiconductor business, which was just launched in July of that year. Along with the rise in the Chinese semiconductor industry that is vigorously supported by the state, the business is going to build a new growth curve for WiMi. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NASDAQ:WIMILong
by EqualOcean
Growing Stocks to Watch in the Chinese Market: (QFIN:NASDAQ)Analyzing four small-cap opportunities appearing amid the regulatory storm. 360 DigiTech (QFIN:NASDAQ) 360 DigiTech is a tech-empowered digital platform. By using data-driven technology, it enables financial institutions to provide better and targeted products and services to a broader consumer base. Unlike many of its peers, the company is a pure SaaS platform that generates considerable revenue from technology services. In the third quarter of 2020, 360 DigiTech brought its net tech income to around 50% of the total income for 2020. Embedded finance is a to-B business that is featured in 360 DigiTech's core strategy. It stands for tech-powered services, especially those in the risk management area. It is embedded into other Internet businesses, like Du Xiaoman Financial, DidiChuxing, Meituan, Xiaomi Finance, JD Digits, reaching tens of millions of potential users in a variety of consumer scenarios, such as online shopping, transportation and food delivery. Also, 360 DigiTech's to-B business has seen an expansion of the client base that has helped the company maintain the leading position in the sector. We believe to-B business is the technological advancement that will support the company to maintain its high and steady growth in the future. What is more, the latest antitrust regulation wave is going to further benefit smaller fintech platforms, represented by 360 DigiTech. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
NASDAQ:QFINLong
by EqualOcean
Growing Stocks to Watch in the Chinese Market: (HLG:NASDAQ)Analyzing four small-cap opportunities appearing amid the regulatory storm. In May 2021, a public company in China valued at CNY 3 billion was rejected by the investors for a roadshow, because it is considered a small-cap share with limited liquidity. This fired up the capital market in China and brought the topic to debate again: should we treat a company solely based on market capitalization? We think it is rather irrational to determine the long-term value of a company based on its current market cap. In this article, we will analyze four Chinese small-cap companies with outstanding capabilities and future prospects. Hailiang Education (HLG:NASDAQ) Hailiang Education is one of the largest educational service providers for primary, middle and high schools in China. By the end of March 31, the company had 41 schools in its network, of which 13 were owned or sponsored and 28 were under full management. With the strategy of deploying in both domestic and international education, Hailiang Education has a continuously growing student scale and improving educational outcomes, which serve as its main engine to lead China's education sector. Among the most popular players in the K12 private school sector in China, Hailiang Education has been generating the highest revenue for its investors. In the past years, Hailiang Education has been actively acquiring and cooperating with more private schools both domestically and globally to expand its network. K12 Education is critical for China which has set education development as a strategic priority. Therefore, the future market is expected to be substantial for Hailiang Education. What is more, the state has lately restricted off-campus educational training courses. This move will effectively shift many domestic educational companies into a non-profit model. Under these circumstances, Hailiang Education, a private school operator, is expected to benefit hugely. For the full article with the charts, please visit the original link.
HLong
by EqualOcean
ZTO Express' Revenues Reach CNY 7.3 Billion in Q2 2021The cumulative revenue of the delivery firm for the first half of 2021 has reached CNY 13.798 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.72%. - The company's revenue in Q2 2021 was recorded CNY 7.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.4%. - Gross profit was CNY 1.674 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4%. - Net profit was CNY 1.272 billion, down 12.5% year-on-year. Zhongtong express said that the decrease in gross profit in the second quarter of 2021 was due to the combined impact of business volume growth, price decline and cost rise due to the expiration of preferential policies during the epidemic. The gross profit margin decreased to 22.8% compared with 27.6% in the same period in 2020 is due to the combined impact of the decline of single ticket revenue of core express business by 5.9% and the increase of single ticket cost by 1.7%. - The core express service revenue of ZTO Express increased by 18.1% year-on-year to CNY 6.65 billion, accounting for 90.8% of the total revenue. - The freight forwarding service revenue decreased by 32.9% year-on-year to CNY 48.56 million - The sales revenue of materials decreased by 2.2% year-on-year to CNY 48.65 million. - The parcel volume was 5.77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 25.6%. - As of June 30, 2021, the firm had more than 30100 outlets for delivery; The number of direct network partners was more than 5450. - The total operating cost in the second quarter was CNY 5.65 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.0%. - It is expected that the annual package volume in 2021 will be in the range of 22.95-23.8 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 35% - 40%.
NYSE:ZTO
by EqualOcean
Vipshop Announces Q2 2021 Financial ResultsIn Q2 2021, the company generated CNY 29.6 billion in revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 22.8%. According to Vipshop's Q2 2021 financial announcement: - Revenue rose by 22.8%, reaching CNY 29.6 billion. - Net profit hit CNY 1.1 billion, representing a year-on-year decline of 26.7%. - As of June 30, 2021, Vipshop had cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash of CNY 16.5 billion. - In Q2 2021, the company had a total of 51.1 million active users, showing a year-on-year growth of 32%, and the size of its VIP paid membership increased by nearly 50%. - Moreover, GMV exceeded CNY 48.1 billion, representing a rise of 25%, while the number of orders reached 222 million, showing an increase of 30%. - The firm's total operating expenses were CNY 4.8 billion (up 26.3%), accounting for 16.4% of total net revenue compared with 15.8% in the same period of 2020. - Among them, its fulfillment expenses hit CNY 2.1 billion (an increase of 23.5%), marking up 6.9% of total net revenue compared with 7.0% in Q2 2020. - At the same time, Vipshop's marketing expenses reached CNY 1.4 billion (up 40%), taking up 4.8% of total revenue compared with 4.3% in the previous year; technology and content expenses were CNY 370 million, increasing 21.3% year-on-year; and its general and administrative expenses hit CNY 1.0 billion (a growth of 24.2%), accounting for 3.4% of total net revenue compared with 3.3% in the same period in 2020.
NYSE:VIPS
by EqualOcean
360 DigiTech's 2021 Q2 Revenue up 20%, Net Income up 76.6%On August 19, Chinese online fintech platform 360 DigiTech released its 2021 Q2 earnings report. The earnings report showed that the company's revenue for the quarter was CNY 4 billion, up 19.8% year-over-year, and net profit was CNY 1.55 billion, up 76.6% year-over-year. 360 DigiTech shares rose 6.21% on that trading day. Founded in July 2016, 360 DigiTech is a data-driven, AI-enabled third-party financial technology platform owned by domestic Internet security giant 360 Group. The company was listed on NASDAQ in the US on December 14, 2018. During this second quarter, 360 DigiTech's net revenue from credit-driven services was CNY 2.441 billion, down 20.8% year-over-year; net revenue from platform services was CNY 1.597 billion, up 516.6% year-over-year. The financing revenue was CNY 488 million, down 22.3% year-over-year; and revenue from secured debt release was CNY 1.352 billion, up 25.5% year-over-year, mainly due to an increase in the average outstanding balance of off-balance-sheet capital loans during the period. As of June 30, 2021, 360 DigiTech's platform had connected 108 financial institution partners and 176 million consumers with potential credit needs, up 18.1% year-over-year; cumulative users approved for credit lines were 34.7 million, up 25.3% year-over-year; and cumulative borrowers, including repeat borrowers, were 22.3 million, up 25.3% year-over-year. The company's financial institutions contributed 88.7 percent of loans originated by repeat borrowers during the second quarter. In the second quarter of 2021, the company's partners, such as financial institutions, originated more than 27.71 million loans through the platform, with total loans of USD 88.452 billion, up 50.2 percent year-over-year. Among them, the balance of loans for technology solutions such as light capital was CNY 58.187 billion, an increase of 186.4% year-on-year; financial institutions issued about CNY 7.1 billion of credit lines to micro and small enterprises through the company's platform, an increase of 22.4% year-on-year. The weighted average maturity of loans issued by financial institutions on 360DigitaTech's platform lasted approximately 10.66 months, compared to 9.57 months for the same period in 2020. As of June 30, 2021, the company's 90-day+ delinquency rate for loans originated by financial institutions on its platform was 1.19%. In addition, 360 DigiTech reported its total operating costs and expenses of USD2.148 billion for the period, down 8.4% year-over-year and up 5.2% sequentially. The company is expected to continue its growth in the second half of this year. Therefore, the company's total loans are expected to reach between USD 340 billion and USD 350 billion in 2021, up 38% to 42% year-over-year from the previously estimated USD 310 billion to USD 330 billion.
NASDAQ:QFINLong
by EqualOcean
$BIDUThe main concern or reason for the tumble in stock price would be China’s increased regulatory scrutiny over tech firms during the past few months. On top of that, people also might be worried about delisting threats for Chinese companies by U.S. regulators. But on the other hand, people should look at how $BIDU is expanding its horizons, for instance, the company ventured into AI space last year, and also launched an autonomous taxi service in China. Yet, the stock price doesn’t seem to reflect optimism or an open mind to Baidu’s evolving business. $BIDU has two strong support levels on the major timeframes. $137 & $80. I suggest keeping your eyes on these levels for an opportunity to go long. Price also oversold on the daily & nearly the weekly. - Factor Four
NASDAQ:BIDULong
by TheBlankFund
4
The Crisis every investor is waiting for. What you gonna do? #2What to do in the next 6-9 months with existing risk factors? Educate yourself to come to a conclusion. Do not blindly follow "experts". In the current situation we are facing several risks to the stock market. I listened to a lot of so called experts. They tell you what sounds great, what you want to hear. Most of them get paid for being on the show even it is a ZOOM call without pants. They talk anything and get paid. Do they do any research or do they collect opinions off FB and Twatter? My experience is stop listening to background noise. Improve your own skills and do research and LEARN economics and financials. The Market commentary will always be totally diametric. As a seller of an asset in a trade and the buyer of the same asset have both diametric expectations of the market. So find your own. There are a few good YouTuber out there I listen regularly in but even though I like them and they put positive thoughts into my head do not trade what they say. You can take the idea but you MUST do your own research. It is said that any stock pick of an "expert" is as got as letting a chimpanzee chose any trades. The outcome for the Chimps is better by a bit. If you killed your account in the process come back and let me know how it worked out. Or after you lost your first account of $20,000.00 and you got up again, we can talk about your baptizing. All good traders lost a huge amount of money before they made it right. Having said this I can only encourage people to get financially literate. Brokers and charlatan educators rigging against you. They make huge money and you lose 90% of the time 90% of your money within 90 days. Please be advised, I am not a financial adviser. I am not recommending any trades. I might be just a crazy guy with a wild brain. If you want to see the picture to the story, you have to go to hedgingstocks.blogspot dot com/2021/08/what-to-do-in-next-6-9-months-with.html. As a content provider I should not pay for images. I do not take money either. I listed the risk factors already. This is only my personal opinion. What factors could that be. Inflation Wage Inflation Money Supply Money circulation Housing bubble The Warren Buffet indicator China Regulations China Currency Manipulation China Delta Variance of Covid the huge wild card! WE MUST ADD WAR WITH CHINA to the equation, Taiwan And I wrote about a few of them. Inflation Wage Inflation Money Supply Money Circulation I made a research on the housing market and if we are in a bubble that is about to burst. I do not think so for the near future. But this is a very long analysis with lot of graphs that made me conclude that the housing bubble will NOT be the IED, not the roadside bomb that will bring the market down. My biggest candidates for now are The China Delta Variance of Red Covid 19 the huge wild card! Chinas potential attack on Taiwan. Inflation and hence the start of tapering by the Feds. For those reasons without explaining them any further I want to explain my perspective and the focus of my trades for the next six month. I concluded that 1. The down side risk is growing and buying dips is getting too risky. I am closing my long positions slowly. 2. Tapering might start October and being announced in September during the FOMC Two-day meeting in September 21-22. 3. This will take money out of the stock market and put it into the Bond Market. It will increase YIELDS and decrease Bond Prices. 4. The FOMC said that they will start tapering with both, reducing the artificial demand for bonds and MBS. 5. MBS, Mortgage Backed Securities are basically mortgages of smaller banks that their head quarters put together in a DEBT security and sold them to the FEDs. This is a 12 billion Dolla business per month increasing the debt burden of future generations. The banks convey the default risk to the Feds /tax payers and some interest from the mortgages. The original bank keeps a portion but very little risk. If the Feds stop buying those MBS they will give the risk back to the local banks and they will have to tighten their lending rules to reduce the increased risk of defaulting. Also this will reduce revenue with the loss of selling those MBS. Financial sector will cool down during tapering. 6. The Bond market will cool down too. Yields will rise. The Feds will reduce buying Bonds and hence the prices will fall. Since the prices of these assets are falling their yield (state guaranteed interest rate) will increase. When the yield of an assets stays the same but you pay less than face value of that asset then your yield goes up. The yield /(interest) is NOT bond to the selling price of that asset but to the face value printed on that NOTE or BOND. Thats why it is said when the Feds keeps buying bonds it keeps the prices artificially high, they are manipulated, to keep the yield down. And of course the smart money goes into the stock market. There is much more to make. Got it? (Images are available on my other blog) Here is the 10 years Bond yield 7. The Stock Market will crash with a conflict with China. Foreign countries will take their money out of China stocks and the Asia region and flee to the US Dollar buying bonds. This bond buying might counter the yield a little. But all transactions will be conducted in USD. A conflict with China will shock the Asian markets. 8. An conflict with China will force the Feds to print more money to finance war efforts, especially if they continue over a longer period of time. It will put additional pressure on inflation during and after the war. A smaller regional conflict will not have a huge impact, as we experienced already. See image. 9. Either way, with tapering the US Dollar will rise due to the above mentioned traditional reaction. 10. With an increase of Interest rates, next year as the rumors are, the banking sector will do better. increased interest rates always benefit the banks. 11. A war over Taiwan and may be an attack on Israel by Iran or vis versa, will bring the oil and all commodity prices up big time. this will have a positive impact on oil prices and a negative impact on air travel, hotels and cruisers. 12. A review of 20 major geopolitical events dating all the way back to World War II showed stocks had fully recovered losses within an average of 47 trading days (10 weeks) after an average maximum drawdown of 5%, according to a CFRA study. (images not possible here) An attack on Taiwan I consider more like of the level of the Iraq invasion or Pearl Harbor. It will send shockwaves through the market and reorganize priorities. China might be out of the window. It will have a huge impact. 12. In the case of a conflict with China, not small Iran or their proxies, the US Dollar will gain in value. Why is that? Shipping routs will be interrupted. Heavily needed Commodity Prices will rise. Oil prices will rise and so do chemical products. The US dollar would rise because it is the reserve currency of the world, and a hedge against uncertainty. Almost all petrochemical contracts as well as oil and other commodities are denominated in the US dollar. The sole exception to this rule is China. A rising Dollar will be anti inflationary. 13. Contradicting this approach will be the wild card of the China Delta Covid. If there are more shut downs coming, more port closures and transportation chain bottle necks, inflation in the PPI and later in the CPI will increase. But the cocaine operation of the Feds (buying MBS and printing money) will continue and tapering will not start. Keep doing what we are doing, buy the dips. Then inflation will start to increase the pace, rate of inflation will rise. Conclusion We have four levels. and each of them requires different actions 1. Inflation and hence the start of tapering by the Feds. 2. Cooling of the Money Velocity, M2V, and the increase of interest rates. 3. The Delta Variance, the huge wild card! 4. Chinas attack on Taiwan. 1. Inflation and hence the start of tapering by the Feds. Go long USD, buy UUP ETF, US-Dollar ETF Go Short AUD, Australia has a huge lockdown in place and its economy also is 20% depending on China. Shorting the Aussie looks good to me. Find an Currency ETF you can trust, USD / AUD and go long, not the other way around. Sell Bear Call Credit Spreads since the markets will rise slower and the strike might not be triggered. I chose Short Call 3 Standard Deviation OTM on the QQQ and SPY then Long Call for hedging $10 above that price. Maybe with tapering you could sell at 2nd standard deviation. I am not sure about this yet. 2. Cooling of the Money Velocity, M2V, and the increase of interest rates. Go long USD, buy UUP ETF, US-Dollar ETF, rising interest rates are good for the USD. Go Short AUD, Australia has a huge lockdown in place and its economy also is 20% depending on China. Shorting the Aussie looks good to me Sell Call Bear Credit Spreads since the markets (QQQ, SPY, IWM) will rise slower and the strike might not be triggered. I chose Short Call 2 Standard Deviation OTM on the QQQ and SPY then Long Call for hedging $10 above that price. Buy Diagonal Put Debit Spreads. Go long PUT 1 standard Deviation OTM, 3 months DTE and to lower costs with buying the same PUT BUT with a shorter DTE (maybe 1 month) to cover costs, assuming that the strike will not be hit until in one month. Or Sell Calendar Spread 1 standard Deviation OTM. 3. The Delta Variance, the huge wild card! If lockdowns are announced and the economic recovery seems to slow, stagflation, the Feds money will continue to flow. Inflation will rise and the Stock Market will rise. I will do the same as above but move my strikes for the credit spreads to the third Standard Deviation and reduce DTE from 45 days to 30. Additionally to what is said you can do the following. Maybe the better choice in short term. Buy a Call Diagonal Spreads with two different Strikes and Expiration Dates. Buy Call with a DTE, maybe one month. Buy it OTM, one StandDev. Sell a shorter term Call, maybe two weeks, further OTM, maybe 5$ for the QQQ to reduce costs. You expect the short position to expire worthless at date of Expiration and the long Call still continues in the money, ITM, for the next two weeks. Buy Calendar Spreads with the same strike but two different Expiration Dates, maybe one month and 14 days. Buy it OTM with one month DTE, Sell a shorter term Call further OTM, same strike to reduce costs. You expect the short position to expire worthless at date of Expiration and the long Call still continues since the strike price is not yet hit. So be careful choosing the Strike! 4. Chinas attack on Taiwan Go long Oil ETF, COG, CABOT OIL & GAS CORP; NRT, NORTH EUROPEAN OIL ROYALTY TRUST; Refining companies (Lists not possible to post here) Integrated Oil (Lists not possible to post here) Sell shares in Chinese ETFs or companies, they will instantly lose value. Be conscious about the spread. Be careful not to buy options, they might not be respected. You can google them. Go large caps. (Lists not possible to post here) Buy USD. It is said USD will rise and so inflation. A war with China there will be no doubt that they will pump money into the system. Inflation will rise and uncertainty of foreign countries will seek save harbor in the USD How to set up a Bear Call Spread will follow . I just cannot put this all into one article. At least here is a guide line. Technicals are secondary but important. Now we could look at the charts and look how to set up the trade since we know what to look for and we will listen to the news and watch the indicators to confirm our assumptions. Be careful at those times. SPY, S&P500 market index ETF DIA, Dow Jones Market Index, ETF IMW, Small Cap Russel 2000, ETF QQQ, NASDAQ, ETF VIX, Volatility Index, reacts inverse to S&P500 AUM, AUD in USD Index UUP, USD, ETF AAPL Stocks as leading indicator for QQQ and SPY
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by Option_Crusader
BYD, China's Next Hardware GiantAccording to Wilson's report, the average price of BYD's vehicles has surpassed that of popular joint venture brand Volkswagen by about CNY 10,000. BYD is an automobile company that provides vehicles, EV batteries, semiconductors and electronics foundry services. We estimate its stock's value based on the sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) method. The company's EV and battery businesses account for most of the valuation. We consider BYD to be currently undervalued and expect a 22% upbeat. In 2020, the Chinese NEV market had a stellar performance – NIO, Xpeng and Li Auto all delivered considerable volumes of vehicles. Meanwhile, we spotlight BYD, a car maker once invested by Warren Buffett, as a best-in-class electric vehicle company. With its solid fundamentals, BYD is likely to become a major hardware conglomerate – much like Tencent or Alibaba in the consumer Internet sector. This article will examine the company's business segments, touch upon potential risks, and conduct an SOTP analysis to value its shares. Intro Wang Chuanfu incorporated BYD in 1995, inspired by the prospects of the Li-ion battery applications. Since then, he has led the company, building it into an agile manufacturing mammoth capable of starting new ventures and succeeding quickly across many fields. For one, BYD started to produce face masks in the first days of the COVID-19 outbreak and has now become the biggest mask producer worldwide. Its business segments remain the same though – those are internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, EVs, power batteries, auto semiconductors and electronics assembly services. Auto OEM BYD sells both ICE vehicles and EVs, primarily in China (but is getting more active abroad). In 2020, it sold 231,000 units of ICE cars, a year-on-year (YoY) increase of 3.8%. The parts sales accounted for a significant share of total revenue but remained less profitable. Now, BYD is full speed ahead to transform itself into an EV-based company. Because BYD didn't disclose its total ICE car sales revenue, we broke down its revenue streams and assumed the average selling price (ASP) was between CNY 100,000 to CNY 110,000. Therefore, ICE generated revenue of CNY 24 billion in 2020. We expect the ICE business will drop 10% in the next few years as the sales momentum will shift to EV. In 2022, the revenue will reach CNY 19.4 billion. With a 2x PS ratio based on Great Wall Motor and Geely Auto, the ICE business will be valued at CNY 38 billion. In the meantime, EV sales has become the most valuable business – last year, BYD sold 162,000 EVs, a YoY decrease of 12.5%. After upgrading the 'dynasty' EV series, BYD entered the middle-to-high-end market. The series adopts self-made 'blade batteries' to prevent EV from battery catching fire. The hit model 'Han,' a car somewhat similar to Tesla's Model 3 and Xpeng P7, sold 8,522 units in July, surpassing the sales volume of NIO and Xpeng. According to the 2020 financial report, BYD made CNY 24.4 billion in revenue from EV sales. We project the EV sales will increase by 100% (based on the fact that sales from January to July 2021 surpassed last year's figure) and by 25% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. We also assume the ASP will increase by 5% in 2021 and 2022 as more high-end models are delivered. For these two years, the revenue will hit CNY 51 billion and 67 billion. With a 10x 2022 PS ratio, the EV department is worth CNY 670 billion. Power battery sales is another core business for BYD alongside EVs. According to SNE research, BYD's installed capacity reached (link in Chinese) 7.8 GWh during the first half of 2021, ranking No.4 worldwide. This is 23% of CATL's installed capacity. Therefore, conservatively speaking, we estimate the market capitalization of BYD's battery division will be one-fifth of CATL's. Thus, the power battery business is worth CNY 240 billion, based on the fact that CATL's market cap had already reached CNY 1,200 billion as of August 9, 2021. BYD Semiconductors Semiconductor manufacturing is another important segment for BYD. It is set to be spun off from BYD to go public. It features auto semiconductors, which provide IGBT, smart control IC, sensors and optoelectronic semiconductors. BYD semiconductors can independently design, manufacture, package and test chips. It is the only company to achieve this in China. Based on our latest report, auto chips will be in high demand as more vehicles will be electrified in the future. As per BYD's 2020 report, the semiconductor business was valued at CNY 7.5 billion in May 2021. We believe the figure will triple while launching on the open market. It is estimated that BYD will deliver semiconductors worth up to CNY 20 billion. BYD Electronic Apart from providing high-end products, BYD also made CNY 60 billion toplines (38% of total 2020 revenue) from assembling smartphones, tablet computers and laptops. These products show low profitability similar to other electronics foundries like Hon Hai Precision. We refer to Hon Hai's 0.25x 2022 PS ratio and project 12% growth in the next two years. We calculated that BYD Electronic is valued at CNY 18 billion. To sum up, BYD is valued at CNY 988 billion. Even so, we think the estimation is a bit conservative as some assumptions aren't considered in it. BYD's EV will deploy more self-made batteries and chips, which will save a lot of costs for the company in the long term. What's more, rumors said BYD's battery had been tested by Tesla and would likely be equipped with Tesla's vehicles. This potential opportunity will significantly boost BYD's valuation in the battery division. Risks BYD's EV sales were affected by the industry's downslide in 2019 and 2020. Moreover, the EV market has been involved with intensified competition, as proved by the price slash of a few models and few companies leaving. BYD, with its comprehensive business mix, should have the means to face these challenges. Conclusion Viewed as part of the big picture, BYD is a company less profitable than some of its auto peers – one with a 2.6% net profit margin in 2020. We consider the company to have set margin improvement as a long-term goal, while also expanding in the EV battery and related battery segments. Although BYD just saw a market cap rally in the past few days, we believe it is still undervalued and has a 22% upbeat opportunity as of August 20, 2021.
OTC:BYDDFLong
by EqualOcean
$KXIN Ready for a Rally ? Merger Talk?!Scince the announcement of $KXIN that they will enter the "small Electro Vehicel" market shares are already going strong with high volume ... Now we have news about a merger and there are some rumors of possible partners in play .... technical we see some S/R flips in and we have just recently closed above another resistance ... in case we can break this resistance zone there are no doubt of a price around 5$ a share ,this is also our next bigger resistance level , after market is able to break that level we have open space all the way to 10$ a share ... Time will tell .... and always remember you are not married to the stock nor you wanna be a bag holder ;-) good luck and have a great week Trueman23
NASDAQ:KXINLong
by Trueman23
2
Niu Technologies Announces Q2 2021 Financial ResultsIn Q2 2021, the company generated CNY 944.7 million in revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 46.5%. According to Niu Technologies' Q2 2021 financial announcement: - Revenue rose by 46.5%, reaching CNY 944.7 million. - The gross profit margin was 22.7%, compared with 23.0% in the same period of 2020. - Net profit hit CNY 91.8 million, representing a 61.6% growth, and the net profit margin was 9.7%. - In Q2 2021, the company's sales volume hit 253,000 units (up 58.0%), with only 2.8% sales from overseas markets. - Among the firm's major business, the revenue of electric scooters in the domestic market recorded CNY 758 million, representing a growth of 44.9%; its overseas revenue from electric scooters hit CNY 57.7 million, increasing 1.2% compared with 2020. - The sales from low-priced models G0 and F0 represented 30.4% of total sales volume, declining from 38.2% in Q1 2021, with revenues pre scooter up 8.3% month-on-month. - At the same time, Niu Technologies' sales and marketing expenditure reached CNY 68.9 million, showing an increase of approximately 51.1%; its R&D expenses hit CNY 30.8 million, with a rise of about 28.7%. - By the end of August 16, 2021, the company's market capitalization was USD 1.7 billion (about CNY 11.0 billion), evaporating by CNY 15.4 billion.
NASDAQ:NIU
by EqualOcean
The worst is over for Chinese stocks BABAIf you are a long term investor I hope you used the panic to top up your holdings. If you are a momentum trader you still have the opportunity to ride the bounce or accumulate your position a bit later. Possible scenario for BABA but all names have something similar is as follows. I treat that panic as an exhaustion and behavioural pattern confirms that so I consider the worst is over. Personally, I played that dangerously catching falling knives and loosing hairs so my words bring some sort of hope, but from technical perspective the situation is as follows. Another option is to treat the current leg up as a retest of the previous support but usually when you have seen that sort of panic and all the papers writing the same thing - it is just over. I expect some turbulence at this resistance since bears will try to play down the move but final move is gonna be UP. The first arrow is my initial momentum play. I expect to see some kind see-saw after the first leg and the second arrow reflects my further expectations.
NYSE:BABALong
by crazywlst
The worst is over for Chinese names BIDUIf you are a long term investor I hope you used the panic to top up your holdings. If you are a momentum trader you still have the opportunity to ride the bounce or accumulate your position a bit later. Possible scenario for BIDU but all names have something similar is as follows. I treat that panic as an exhaustion and behavioural pattern confirms that so I consider the worst is over. Personally, I played that dangerously catching falling knives and loosing hairs so my words bring some sort of hope, but from technical perspective the situation is as follows. Another option is to treat the current leg up as a retest of the previous support but usually when you have seen that sort of panic and all the papers writing the same thing - it is just over. I expect some turbulence at this resistance since bears will try to play down the move but final move is gonna be UP.
NASDAQ:BIDULong
by crazywlst
2
EO500 Tracker: Tencent Boost Overseas Sales Amid COVID-19Founded in 1998, Tencent is one of the oldest big tech companies in China. The tech giant has dominated the entertainment universe, focusing on integrating its digital ecosystem. With the acquisition of Riot Games, Tencent has amplified its global influence in the entertainment and game industries. In recent years, while its funding activity in some countries, like Korea, were entertainment-focused, the firm's M&A and investment in other regions, such as India, were more comprehensive, aiming to build an ecosystem. In 2020, the company invested more than CNY 275 billion (year-on-year growth of 84%) in overseas markets, focusing on North America, Asia and Europe. Meanwhile, its overseas revenue hit CNY 33.9 billion in 2020 compared with CNY 16.7 billion in the previous year.
HKEX:700Long
by EqualOcean