Get started

Chinastocks

China comes back to life, experts calculate lossesChina yesterday began to actively restore economic and industrial activity in the country. Judging by official figures, the epidemic has begun to decline, so there is reason to believe that the worst is over. In this light, yesterday's growth in demand for risky assets is generally explainable. Perhaps the global economy in general, and China in particular, will get off easily. At least Bloomberg analysts believe that the impact of the epidemic on the economy will be extremely short-term. Although they note, in the first quarter of China's GDP growth will slow down to 4.5%. In general, the uncertainty with economic damage is likely to be a factor restraining another bout of unbridled optimism in the financial markets. The fact is that its scope can be more serious and tangible. For example, Simon McAdam from Capital Economics believes that the coronavirus will cost the world economy $ 280 billion and ultimately lead to the fact that the world economy in the first quarter of 2020 will not grow for the first time since 2009. JPMorgan analysts expect China’s GDP to grow by only 1% y/y in the first quarter (they predicted an increase of 6% y/y before the epidemic). Goldman Sachs expects the coronavirus to subtract 2% from the global GDP. And Morgan Stanley recently proposed how to measure the real extent of the downtime of the Chinese economy - by analyzing the level of air pollution. According to their calculations, air pollution in Guangzhou, Shanghai, and Chengdu is only 20-50% of historical values. This may mean that human activity here (transportation and industrial production) is only 50-80% of the usual. In general, the optimists or pessimists will determine the dynamics of prices in financial markets on who ultimately turns out to be right. Uncertainty just hangs in the air, which means that for now, it is better to trade inside the day with small stops. We will look for points to buy gold and the Japanese yen intraday. We will sell oil at the time of its growth. Also, we will buy the British pound. Yesterday's data on GDP (+ 1.1% y/y against the forecast of 0.8% y/y) and industrial production (+ 0.1% against the forecast + 0.3%) did not give rise to sales and important support 1,29. So, a rebound up is quite likely.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
4
Oil and world are in danger, a pound in anticipationTraditionally, we start the review with news about the coronavirus epidemic. Once again, we note that the matter is even on its scale - thousands of times more people die from ordinary flu, and hundreds of thousands of times more get sick each year. The point is the problems that this epidemic has on the global economy. A number of key industrial centers in China have been completely or partially idle for the third week. Each such day is further destruction of the global supply chain, and if there are still enough stocks in warehouses, then every day the risk of a shortage of materials to continue the activities of companies becomes higher, as well as the scale of losses. One of the main victims this week maybe oil. We wrote that last week OPEC+ was able to tentatively agree to reduce oil production by another 600K b/d. But yesterday information appeared that Russia could refuse this. And here, even in Libya, the warring parties are close to signing a peace treaty, which is fraught with the return of several hundred thousand barrels per day to the oil market. And all this is happening against the backdrop of a sharp drop in oil demand from China. Not surprisingly, some experts predict an oil drop of at least 10% in the foreseeable future. In general, oil sales this week remain our basic trading idea. Returning to the current figures on the scale of the epidemic, we note that the number of deaths is approaching 1,000, and the number of cases is close to 50,000. Once again, we recall that these are official statistics. The main mass of experts converges in opinion, that the figures are underestimated by several times to several tens of times. In connection with such a development of events, we cannot but recall our recommendation to sell the Russian ruble. The conditions for this are almost ideal, especially when you consider that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation lowered the rate again last week and plans to do this further in 2020. Today, in terms of macroeconomic statistics, it will be interesting primarily for the British pound. Data on GDP and industrial production can trigger a surge in volatility in pound pairs. Given that in recent days, the pound was already under strong downward pressure, weak data will almost certainly trigger a new wave of sales. But at the same time, good numbers can give a start for strengthening the pound - points for its purchases are very attractive. In general, today you can try news trading, with pending orders or enter after the news, playing back a fundamental positive or negative.
Long
by Trade24Fx
NFP Day, Coronavirus Chronicles, Pound WeaknessThe main event of today will be the publication of official statistics on the US labor market. On average, experts expect a gain of 162K. This is more than it was in the previous month, but less than the average value for the last couple of years. In general, it is worth noting that the trend towards a decrease in the number of newly created jobs with each new publication of data is becoming increasingly apparent. After the peak values of 2014 (then about 3 million new jobs were created during the year), the indicator was constantly decreasing, with the exception of 2018, when Trump's tax reform affected, but already in 2019, the effect had exhausted itself. So the US labor market in 2020 looks rather vulnerable. Especially in light of the coronavirus epidemic, which continues to gain momentum: the number of deaths is close to 600, and the number of deaths is close to 30,000. Quarantine continues, and more and more countries completely or partially interrupt a transport connection with China. In this light, data on the US labor market may well be unpleasantly surprising. The only thing that holds us back from frankly negative forecasts is the excellent employment figures from ADP (+ 291K). Although they can play a trick on the dollar because against the background of such numbers, almost any statistics on the NFP will seem weak. In total, we will not be surprised at the weak NFP figures, but we would not dare to put on this forecast. Instead, we offer traditional news trading in a pair of USDCAD. Recall that in parallel with the data from the United States will be published statistics on the labor market of Canada. That is, the USDCAD pair has a chance of a double impulse with no obvious direction. So a minute before the publication of data, we place pending orders such as stop orders for purchases and sales at 20-25 points from the current price at that time. And just waiting for the data. If there is a situation with data overlay (positive for the Canadian dollar and negative for the American or vice versa), then we remain in position until the end of the day. To other news and events of yesterday. In the foreign exchange market, the pound was under pressure amid growing investor concern over the outcome of trade negotiations between the UK and the EU. We believe that the parties will agree. In the end, the United States and China were able to enter the first phase, let alone Britain and the EU. So pound purchases remain one of our favorite forex positions. For other assets and markets, buying gold and the Japanese yen is still a priority. But with oil we, perhaps, will wait a while. The asset can not decide who it is - buyers and sellers - so we'll wait for more clarity. Moreover, Saudi Arabia and Russia have been agreeing on something for three days. The outcome of the negotiations could potentially blow up the oil market.
Long
by Trade24Fx
2
The markets illogicality the and trading anomaliesTuesday was another recovery day in the financial markets. In general, all this is rather strange and illogical. Markets first fall on the news of coronavirus and the epidemic. Logically and explainable, we will not go into details, and once again build logical chains of consequences. We did this in previous reviews. But upon the receipt of news that the epidemic is developing and becoming the largest in the last 20 years (the number of deaths exceeded 400, and the cases of 20,000), markets begin to calm down instead of continuing to work out a fundamental negative. This can be seen from the dynamics of the stock markets (Nasdaq updated new historical highs, and Tesla shares seem to have forgotten what gravity and common sense are), gold is declining, risky assets are recovering, VIX Fear Index is falling by more than 10% in day, and the Chinese stock market is adding 1-2% per day. The main problem in this chaos is not to lose one’s head and not to succumb to general madness. Ultimately, you need to work not with current prices and their dynamics, but with facts. And the facts are that the epidemic has already caused enormous damage and will continue to cause it. Yes, the extent of the damage is unclear and perhaps it will be partially leveled in one way or another. But it is applied and this is a fact. So, starting from the facts, we consider current prices in the financial markets to be abnormal. Based on the concept of “regression to the average,” prices will sooner or later have to return to their moderately adequate state. Accordingly, today we will buy gold with redoubled energy and volumes (for less aggressive traders, we can recommend selling a pair of USDJPY - the points for sales are simply excellent). Stock market sales remain our No.1 trading idea. Oil sales (WTI benchmark) from 51.20 also seem to be a balanced transaction (stops above 51.20 with profits in the region of 45 or even lower make the transaction extremely attractive). At the same time, we are acting with an eye on OPEC activity. If the cartel decides to intervene, and oil goes above 51.20, then a stop coup is quite possible. Speaking of other news and macroeconomic statistics, we note that today will be published US employment data from ADP. Although the focus of the markets is traditionally focused on the official figures, which will be published on Friday, strong deviations in the fact from ADP from forecasts can provoke significant movements in dollar pairs.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
2
Markets relax again amid concerns over global economyMonday was a very busy day in the financial markets in terms of price dynamics. The tone was set by China, which opened its stock markets after a long vacation. Expectedly, the market collapsed despite unprecedented restrictive measures by the Government and an infusion of nearly two hundred billion dollars from the Bank of China. The Shanghai Composite Base Index lost $420 billion in value over the day. Experts, meanwhile, note that China is well suited to act as a catalyst for a new global crisis (until recently, the States have done it well). The fact is that in recent years, the role of China in the global economy has grown dramatically. Today, it accounts for about a third of world growth, which is more than the share of the United States, Europe and Japan combined. So if Goldman Sachs analysts are right (they forecast a decline in China in 2020 at 0.4%), then the global economy will face serious problems. Despite the sales in China and the next anti-record coronavirus epidemic, investors again relaxed and calmed down. This already happened last week and turned out to be nothing more than a pause in the main movement. So, such gold descents as yesterday, we recommend using the asset for purchases. Moreover, by itself, the gold market could face a shortage. The fact is that the volume of gold mining in the world in 2020 decreased for the first time in 10 years. All easily recoverable metal has already been mined, which only strengthens the current negative trends for the offer of an asset. The pound dipped well yesterday. Although not the fact that this is its absolute minimum. The fact is that Great Britain and the EU, after the official withdrawal of the first from the Union, switched to the most important thing - the trade agreement. And then, predictably, the parties faced a problem. However, we have already gone through all this over the past 3 years. The parties will exchange threats, raise rates, put pressure on each other in an attempt to win the most favorable conditions for themselves. Given that the period until the end of the year, the pound is waiting for a difficult 8-9 months. We continue to believe that the parties will agree on how this ultimately happened with Brexit. And so we will use the pound's descents as an excuse for his purchases. At least the point 1.2980-1.3000 looks too attractive not to risk buying from it. But with mandatory stops, because it is likely that the pound can be bought even cheaper. Oil (WTI benchmark) yesterday fixed below the support of 51.20. In general, the situation looks rather threatening for buyers, especially since the background is generally favorable for further sales (oil demand in China collapsed by 3 million b/d, which is about 20% of its total consumption).
Long
by Trade24Fx
The epidemic continues, Carney's last word, Brexit dayAs we warned in our two previous reviews, investors relaxed clearly prematurely. Actually, the dynamics of underlying assets on Wednesday confirmed this. And the front pages of publications clearly indicate what investors should think and worry about now - the coronavirus epidemic. Yesterday we wrote that its scale has already exceeded SARS, and the epidemic is still in full swing. The number of deaths has already approached two hundred, and the number of cases is clearly aimed at overcoming the 10,000 mark. Meanwhile, analysts are accelerating the theme of global recession and coronavirus as a trigger. We already wrote earlier that there are prerequisites for this and current events are really great for the role of a catalyst. In general, our recommendations on buying safe-haven assets are still working and their decline on Tuesday was only a great opportunity for cheaper purchases. But back to the events of yesterday. The Bank of England left the bet unchanged. Since the price of the pound at the start of the day partially took into account a possible decrease in the rate, its increase upon the announcement of the decision by the Central Bank was an attempt to exclude this component from the price equation. Actually, our recommendation to buy the pound worked at 100%. For the current head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, this was the last meeting. Already in March, he will be replaced by Andrew Bailey, who previously served as Executive Director of the British Financial Supervisory Authority. Well, do not forget that today is Brexit day. On January 31, 2020, Great Britain leaves the European Union. Note that Brexit was and remains the main driver of pound movements. Moreover, it is precisely the “soft” scenario that is being implemented. Recall that when the markets were just thinking about the possibility of a “soft” Brexit, the pound was worth 1.41-1.43. From this position, its current prices look like great opportunities for medium-term purchases with very ambitious goals. The US GDP for the fourth quarter was 2.1%. Overall expected as it was the final reading.
Long
by Trade24Fx
12
Effects of the coronavirus grow as panic in marketsThe coronavirus epidemic is gaining momentum. At least, according to statistics. The number of deaths is already close to 100, and the number of cases is close to 3,000. China is forced to react harder. The magnitude of the effects on the economy is growing exponentially. Lunar New Year celebrations are extended for at least 3 more days. Actually, more than one review can be devoted to the chronicles of the coronavirus and attempts to assess their consequences. But we are still more interested in the reaction of financial markets and how to capitalize on this force majeure. Panic in the financial markets after the weekend intensified. The Fear Index (VIX) literally skyrocketed, increasing by more than 40% in a couple of days! So far, everything is developing exactly with our recommendations: safe-haven assets are growing in price, stock markets have rained down, risky assets like the Russian ruble are losing, oil and other commodity assets are continuing to decline. So further deterioration of the epidemic situation will obviously be accompanied by the development of these trends. Therefore, the basic trading plan is still unchanged: we buy gold and the Japanese yen, sell the Russian ruble, sell shares. As for oil (WTI brand), the support we outlined 51.20 +/- is clearly the goal of the current movement. If events will develop as they develop, and the asset will be able to break through this support, then oil sales may well become uncontrolled. But until this happens, 51.20 seems to be a good point for shopping (for aggressive traders, conservative in place, we would wait until the markets calm down). Today, quite important statistics for the United States will be published (orders for durable goods and the level of consumer confidence), but let's be realistic - everyone is not up to it now.
Short
by Trade24Fx
RH - positive and likely uptrend continuation - cyclic toolsNYSE:RH This time its time to look at RH RH has been moving upwards and forming an uptrend since early June 2019. A quick look on the chart and we can establish a few key support/ resistance lines Support 1 : 218.23 Support 2 : 206.60 Support 3 – 192.12 Support 4 : 171.34 Resistance – Stop buy entry level : 228.72 Resistane 2: 243.84 There seems to be chart formation happening. On breakout above 229, one could expect a continuation of trend Upward Price target- 270 Interestingly, price seems to be making a trough or a intermediate corrections on the trend every 14 days. If this is the case, then yesterdays price close could be a near time low for the 14 day cycle. Next important day to look for is 30th Jan and then 13th Feb 2020 for next low on the cycle. Interesting times ahead given that US and China trade wars seems to be moving in the positive direction Please note this is not an offer to advisory, please consider account size and risk management tools If you like what you see, please share a thumbs up!
NYSE:RHLong
by LoveForCharts
[ Short ] Cathay PacificLiving in Hong Kong, I am seeing the protests re-emerge literally outside my flat. I do believe this will have a continued impact on tourism here in the S.A.R.; notably from Mainland Chinese. HK Tourism I believe the move which began on 8 OCT is a result of the "Phase 1 of the Trade Deal." ( same day as Trump started it ). While I believe greater "USA election related progress" will be made on that front, the protests are not stopping & have been / exp. to continue to have a direct impact on this particular equity. As of now, this ~3 month retracement represents a ~1.5 standard deviation from the mean looking back on the past 20 Yrs. Further relevant items below: Would love to hear any / all comments & suggestions; notably on the Target / Time Horizon albeit any / all would be appreciated. Cheers.
HKEX:293Short
by sobcza123
1
VIPS run should continue after pullback from overboughtChinese retailer VIPS has been on a massive run lately, and is now pulling back from overbought on the weekly. The stock has formed two upward trend lines, one steeper than the other. We may break the steepest trend line and bounce from the secondary one. VIPS started 2019 at a low valuation, and over the course of the year has seen a roughly 100% increase in its earnings forecast. The share price has risen accordingly, but the stock remains significantly undervalued according to S&P Global Intelligence, with a valuation rating of 86/100. VIPS has posted huge earnings beats on its last five earnings reports. The company next reports earnings on February 18, 2020. Judging from the current earnings forecast, I judge that the share price is likely to hit $30 per share by 2021. The stock has a 9.5/10 analyst summary score and fairly bullish options volume even after the huge run it's been on.
NYSE:VIPSLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
China 50 Reversal PatternThe daily chart of the China 50 gave us a reversal trigger on a Friday. Going forward this week would ideally like to see how the market opens to see if it can give us a pullback. The market structure is apparent. Higher lows and higher highs. We hit a resistance and from here the higher lows (uptrend) began to weaken. From here, we created and confirmed our first lower high with the break of the neckline on the head and shoulders pattern. I would watch to see how price reacts at the 13400 zone, but main target would be 13000.
FOREXCOM:CHINA50Short
by Uncharted-FX
China A50, longChina A50 gave a buy signal on Nov 1st 2019 on day charts, as indicated on charts. As we see now, price has formed a higher high and we will deep dive into the hourly and monthly charts for cues. Look out for retracements and if price continues to make a higher Low, then treat it an entry point to buy more Adding my earlier studies for different perspectives on charts If you like what you see, please share a thumbs up and a comment in the section below If there is any specific chart to be reviewed, share the details below and I will try and revert at the earliest Lets discuss! Cheers
OANDA:CN50USDLong
by LoveForCharts
CQQQ, on weekly charts gaining strength - buy set upAs seen on the weekly charts, CQQQ seems to be changing directions. Bullish divergence seen recently as indicated in the chart and price getting into an uptrend, recent week high also broken and price now eying the 52.31 level breakout. Important to see a retest and look out for price retracing and confirmation of uptrend if price makes a higher low than the most recent previous levels 2 ways to play 1. wait for higher low to be created and if next candle after that formation is positive, go long 2. Incase you want to wait for further confirmation, then wait for 52.31 levels to be breached and then go long IF you like what you see, please share a thumbs up Cheers
AMEX:CQQQLong
by LoveForCharts
Shanghai Composite: Golden Cross. Potential for an strong rise.SHCOMP is currently pulling back off a Double Top formation near July's 3,050 Resistance. The key development here is the potential to have a Golden Cross formation on 4H. Last time this pattern emerged was in mid February 2019, when again the price was pulling back after a Double Top. The result was an aggressive jump of +20%. Medium term investors can wait for the Golden Cross to take place, catch the low and then go long on the medium term. Target Zone: 3,250 - 3,400. ** If you like our free content follow our profile (www.tradingview.com) to get more daily ideas. ** Comments and likes are greatly appreciated.
SLong
by InvestingScope
4
China 50 Head and Shoulders?Seeing some weakness here on the China 50, as the buyers bid to make a new higher low has yet to succeed. If we break this 13800 zone, it will be a break of a flip/support zone. Indicating there is no strength with this break out. Be patient and await for the candle close. Here is how it looks like on the 2 hour chart: The head and shoulders is very clear. Still would await for a nice and strong close below this zone. 13500-600 is where I would see another flip zone acting as support.
FOREXCOM:CHINA50Short
by Uncharted-FX
2