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China50 to see a limited rally?CHN50 - 24h expiry - Buying pressure from 12830 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. With the Ichimoku cloud resistance above we expect gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 13100 level. We look to Sell at 13095( stop at 13205) Our profit targets will be 12825 and 12765 Resistance: 13180 / 13660 / 14440 Support: 12790 / 12400 / 11845 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:CN50USDShort
by OANDA
Dollar vs Yuan Divergence US Dollar vs Yuan or US Dollar vs Offshore Yuan, technically they are establishing divergence. Above chart is my projection in time to come. When Dollar vs Yuan moves lower, this means we are seeing a weaker Dollar and a stronger Yuan. See the following link for its video version. The Chinese yuan, also known as RMB, is the official currency of China. It is used both onshore in mainland China and offshore in international markets. The offshore yuan, also known as the CNH (Chinese yuan - Hong Kong), is the version of the yuan that is traded outside of mainland China. It is traded in offshore financial centers, such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and London. The offshore yuan is not subject to the same restrictions and regulations as the onshore yuan. The main difference between the onshore and offshore yuan is that the onshore yuan is subject to capital controls imposed by the Chinese government, while the offshore yuan is not subject to these same restrictions. This means that the offshore yuan is more freely tradable and can be used for a wider range of international transactions, such as international trade and investment, while the onshore yuan is more restricted in its use. Offshore Yuan - Standard-Size USD/Offshore RMB (CNH) Outright: 0.0001 per USD increment = 10 CNH MICRO USD/CNH FUTURES 0.0001 offshore Chinese renminbi per USD CNH Option Google search: USD/CNH Monthly Options Contract Specs - CME Group Google search Frequently Asked Questions: USD/CNH options - CME Group Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME:CNH1!Short
by konhow
2
'Can China’s Long-Term Growth Rate Exceed 2–3 Percent?' SummaryThis is a summary of Michael Pettis' 'Can China’s Long-Term Growth Rate Exceed 2–3 Percent?' carnegieendowment.org As the text was quite long, this summarizes some critical points. China's high investment share of GDP and growing debt burden are interrelated, stemming from an investment-driven growth model that began in the 1980s when the country needed significant investment in infrastructure, urban property development, and manufacturing facilities. High domestic investment required high domestic savings, leading to a rapid savings increase by constraining household consumption and income growth. Policymakers now recognize the need to rebalance China's economy towards domestic consumption. High investment levels initially benefited the Chinese economy, as productive investment grew at the fastest pace in history. However, a successful development model should make itself obsolete, and China has closed the gap between its actual investment level and the level its businesses and workers can productively absorb. As productivity benefits of additional investment decline, more investment begins to generate less economic value than the value of employed resources. This can be observed in China's increasing debt numbers. Countries that followed this growth model experienced a period of rapid, sustainable growth with stable debt levels, followed by a period of rapid, unsustainable growth driven by a surging debt burden. China entered this phase around fifteen years ago. Therefore, the investment share of China's GDP must decline sharply in the next few years, as the conditions that made high investment levels sustainable no longer exist. Historical precedents suggest that reducing the investment share of GDP to a sustainable level is better for the economy's long-term health, growth, and stability. In this context, rebalancing the Chinese economy will require significant adjustments in its economic structure. Beijing must focus on boosting domestic consumption, though this would likely result in a decline in China's annual GDP growth to around 2-3 percent for many years. The current investment share of GDP is extraordinarily high, making it difficult to reduce it without significantly affecting overall economic activity. Policymakers in Beijing have increasingly called for an expansion in the role of consumption, but there are significant political constraints in implementing such policies. Rebalancing would require consumption to grow faster than GDP and GDP to grow faster than investment. This implies transferring income from governments and businesses to households, a process that has not yet seen concrete proposals. The decline in growth will be unevenly distributed, with local governments bearing the brunt of the adjustment while ordinary Chinese people experience less impact. This also means that sectors of the global economy that depend on Chinese investment growth will be more affected, while those reliant on Chinese consumption will be less impacted. China's investment share of GDP currently stands at around 42-44 percent, which is unsustainable in the long run. For the purposes of this analysis, it is assumed that China should reduce its investment share to 30 percent over ten years, a level typical of rapidly developing economies. As investment declines, the consumption share of GDP must rise. Michael presents five scenarios under which China can rebalance its economy: A. Rebalance with a surge in consumption: China's consumption would need to grow by 6-7% annually, while investment grows by 0-1% annually, resulting in a GDP growth rate of 4% over ten years. However, this requires politically difficult income transfers from local governments and wealthy individuals to households. B. Rebalance while maintaining current consumption growth rates: Consumption growth would remain at 3-4%, with investment contracting by 1-2% annually. This would lead to an average annual GDP growth rate of 1.5% over ten years. C. Rebalance with a sharp decline in consumption growth: If consumption growth drops to 1-2% annually, the investment must decline by nearly 3% annually, leading to flat GDP growth. D. Rebalance with a sharp contraction in GDP: This scenario involves a short-term, severe GDP contraction but is considered politically disruptive and unlikely. E. Rebalance over a much extended period: If China takes 15-20 years to rebalance, with consumption growth at 3-4% annually, GDP growth will drop to 2% and 2.5%, respectively. Key points include the limited ways China can rebalance, the difficulty in maintaining a high investment share indefinitely, and the necessity of a surge in consumption growth for a more balanced economy. Rebalancing will involve slower GDP growth without faster consumption growth, driven by significant and politically challenging income transfers. In conclusion, China's rebalancing process will require significant adjustments in its economic structure. The country must reduce its reliance on investment and increase the role of consumption in driving growth. However, the political constraints and the impact on various sectors of the economy make this a challenging task for policymakers. The five scenarios presented illustrate the complexities of the rebalancing process and emphasize the need for a well-thought-out and carefully executed strategy. China's future economic health depends on its ability to navigate these challenges and transition to a more sustainable growth model. Beijing must strike a delicate balance between addressing political constraints and implementing policies that promote consumption growth while minimizing the negative impacts on various sectors and local governments. Moreover, the global economy is intricately connected to China's growth trajectory. As China undertakes the rebalancing process, the repercussions will be felt in sectors reliant on Chinese investment and consumption. Businesses and governments worldwide must closely monitor the situation and adapt to these changes. This analysis highlights the importance of understanding the complexities of China's rebalancing process and its implications for the Chinese and global economies. As China grapples with these challenges, the world must brace itself for the changes arising from this monumental shift in the world's second-largest economy. Only time will tell if China's rebalancing efforts will successfully pave the way for a more stable and sustainable economic future.
CAPITALCOM:CN50
by BitcoinMacro
Lower correction expected from CN50.CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 13045 (stop at 12975) There is no sign that this bullish momentum is faltering but the pair has stalled close to a previous swing high of 13369. Price action looks to be forming a top. A lower correction is expected. Short term bias is mildly bullish. We therefore, prefer to fade into the dip with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back higher. Our profit targets will be 13245 and 13660 Resistance: 13660 / 14440 / 15080 Support: 13180 / 12790 / 12400 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
CLong
by VantageMarkets
CN50 to break lower?CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell a break of 12812 (stop at 12875) Selling pressure from 13020 resulted in all the initial daily gains being overturned. The current move lower is expected to continue. Previous support located at 12812. The medium term bias remains bearish. Further downside is expected, however, due to the strong support below we prefer to sell a break of 12812, which will confirm the bearish sentiment. Our profit targets will be 12630 and 12400 Resistance: 13180 / 13660 / 14440 Support: 12790 / 12400 / 11845 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
CShort
by VantageMarkets
Furthside downside is expected from CN50.CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Sell at 13180 (stop at 13260) Buying pressure from 13031 resulted in prices rejecting the dip. The current move higher is expected to continue. The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited. We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower. Further downside is expected although we prefer to sell into rallies close to the 13180 level. Our profit targets will be 12950 and 12790 Resistance: 13180 / 13660 / 14440 Support: 12790 / 12400 / 11845 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
CShort
by VantageMarkets
CN50 to find support at previous resistance?CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 13350 (stop at 13245) Although the bulls are in control, the stalling positive momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. A lower correction is expected. The 50% Fibonacci retracement is located at 13357 from 13116 to 13599. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 13350 level. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 13660 and 14440 Resistance: 13660 / 14440 / 15080 Support: 13180 / 12790 / 12400 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
CLong
by VantageMarkets
Hang Seng bounced strongly! Is the China bull back?Something bullish is happening in China, potentially primarily due to the reopening and all the liquidity injections by the PBoC. China never raised rates while slowly adding liquidity to markets. We saw a significant capitulation when Xi became emperor for life by removing everyone that could potentially cause trouble to him from the CCP, as well as when we first saw the first sanctions on China by the US. It's clear that the US and China are in a cold war, and the US will keep imposing sanctions on China... Many of which might come back to bite it. Now there is talk about capital controls, yet China holds many US bonds and has been part of why inflation stayed low for so long. Of course, China has many issues, but so does the US, and what they both have in common is that they will have to print a ton of money. What's critical here is that the Hang Seng has been trending lower for a while, especially since China started taking 'back' Hong Kong, but then started bottoming around peak China fears (never reopening + Taiwan invasion). For now, an invasion seems unlikely, and all the concerns about capital controls could not have the result everyone thinks they will. The market is incredibly oversold, and Chinese investors may be forced to repatriate their capital and start investing there. ''The Hang Seng Index can be used as a bellwether for markets worldwide. If the gain in Hang Seng holds, that would be a bullish indicant for markets worldwide. If the low is violated, that would suggest continued decline in other markets as well. We say this because the late January and early February market peaks were a worldwide phenomenon. Stocks, Bonds and Commodities all peaked in tandem, suggesting a shift in the underlying perception of the fundamentals from one of continued growth and declining inflation to one of slower growth or recession accompanied by persistent inflationary pressures.'' Milton W Berg CFA @BergMilton I agree with Milton, and to me, this looks special. First, HSI bounced right at the Yearly pivot. The bounce came to a massive rally from the lows, which swept the double top, hit resistance, and had a decent pullback. The bounce straight into the monthly pivot, which usually acts as a magnet. So we have gone from pivot to pivot very quickly. When looking at CN50, we get an extra confirmation that something bullish is happening. Again, massive rally, significant pullback, bounce at support, reclaim yearly pivot, a break above the monthly pivot, slight pullback, and sit right above the monthly pivot. Technically both look bullish to me. Only a close of 2% below the recent lows would make me think that the market is about to keep going lower. Until then, I assume that both these markets are in a bull market and that China isn't as uninvestable as many make it seem to be. Of course, if you are a US investor, you shouldn't be investing in China, but for most of the rest of the world, China seems fine (for now). They keep getting cheap oil from Russia, they are politically stable (nobody to go against Xi), won't invade Taiwan anytime soon (based on what they saw in Ukraine), and Japan also kept printing and didn't raise rates (capital flows into China)
TVC:HSILong
by BitcoinMacro
Buying CN50 at current swing low.CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 13261 (stop at 13101) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher. Trading within a Bearish Channel formation. Our expectation now is for this swing lower to continue towards the bottom of the trend channel, to complete a correction before buyers return. Although the anticipated move higher is corrective, it does offer ample risk/reward today. Our profit targets will be 13661 and 13741 Resistance: 13570 / 14235 / 15080 Support: 13110 / 12645 / 12070 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
CLong
by VantageMarkets
BABA Alibaba Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t sold BABA when Charlie Munger did: or reentered when it was cheaper than the IPO: Now looking at the BABA Alibaba options chain ahead of earnings , I would buy the $110 strike price Calls with 2023-8-18 expiration date for about $10.20 premium. If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, I would sell at least 50%. I have chosen that expiration date to allow me to be wrong and not close the position and to have a bigger gain by the expiration date, if BABA Alibaba keeps on climbing. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:BABALong
by TopgOptions
6
Cobalt - Long; There is no such thing as a "cobalt mine"Cobalt occurs as a metal mining byproduct - mainly copper, zinc, etc. -, 80% of the world production is centered in the Democratic Republic of the Congo - which is neither democratic nor a republic, or a state. (It's claim to fame is perpetual genocides, an endless civil war, accompanied with abject poverty.) 70% of cobalt refining capacity accompanied with worldwide cobalt mining interests is held by China. In short, the DRC has the cobalt and China owns the DRC. The market recently became awash with the metal and prices promptly collapsed to multi-year lows. However, ... ... what about the "EV revolution"? ... (Which, I contend, is pure fiction on the scale as it is being imagined or rather, fantasized. But that's a longer story.) The fundamental factors - i.e. the physics/chemistry - remain the same; Lithium, the main component in almost every kind of electricity storage apparatus - i.e. batteries - is one of the least energy dense metal in the periodic table of elements. (Look at it's electron configuration and it will be immediately clear.) A pure lithium battery would be as effective as pissing into the wind. I.e. Lithium must be alloyed with something, most commonly with cobalt. Long story short, there are two (2) potential plays here; 1) Glencore (OTC:GLNCY) - Long; The main chart; Watch for that Double-top at $14, though! 2) China Molybdenum (OTC:CMCLF) - Long; Should one trust the Chinese? ... (Might care to factor that in!)
OTC:GLNCYLong
by Nemo_Confidat
Buying CN50 at trend of higher lows.CHN50 - 24h expiry - We look to Buy at 13540 (stop at 13470) Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. The trend of higher lows is located at 13455. This is positive for short term sentiment and we look to set longs at good risk/reward levels for a further correction higher. The hourly chart technicals suggests further downside before the uptrend returns. We look to buy dips. Our profit targets will be 13740 and 14235 Resistance: 14235 / 15080 / 16150 Support: 13110 / 12645 / 12070 Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Signal Centre’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Signal Centre.
CLong
by VantageMarkets
TME: VCP Pattern / PowerPlaySetup: PowerPlay VCP: 4W 14/5 2T RS: 98 Contraction 2 is setting up after the turn (trendline). China stocks are leading! The posted chart contains a VCP (volatility contraction pattern). The first label "W" stands for weekly and shows the duration of the entire consolidation. In the middle label, the percentage of contractions is indicated (for example, "15/4"), with 15 representing the -15% depth of the base and 4 representing -4% of the last contraction. The last part "T" represents the number of contractions. The light blue lines in the chart correspond to the contractions. A more detailed description can be found in Mark Minervini's books. RS stands for relative strength and measures the strength of the stock compared to the overall market. The value range is 1-99 with 99 being the highest value. The rank was generated by fyntrade.
NYSE:TMELong
by fyntrade