China A50 holds its ground despite weak sentimentAU wages came in weak, The RBA hinted that they think they're done tightening in the minutes, The PBOC cut rates (again) and a slew of data from China once again misses the mark. And all in a 30-minute period! I think we’re fast approaching a phase where bets will be on for another round of stimulus. The China A50 is holding its ground above 12,600 and AUD/USD has managed to hold above yesterday’s YTD low despite the weak data. There’s a floor under these prices, and any rumours of stimulus could potentially light the bullish match for these markets to bounce.
Economic data from China continues to disappoint, with retail sales, industrial production and fixed-asset investment data all missing the mark today. This follows on from disappointing trade figures for Q3 with imports and exports contracting at a much faster pace than feared, and loan demand falling to its lowest level since 2009.
Yet somehow, the China A50 is still holding above the 12,400 base it formed in Q2 (despite negative headlines) before falling on news of stimulus. Are we about to witness a similar scenario? Perhaps.
The PBOC announced that they have cut rates for a second month in three, a move not expected by the majority of economists. But it does suggest there is some panic, and with that comes hopes of more stimulus. If a market can’t go lower on bad news, it may not take much ‘good’ news to help it rally.
A bullish hammer formed on the daily chart on Monday and prices are holding above its low despite the negative sentiment. We therefore see the potential for a rally to at least 13k, either on hopes of stimulus (or confirmation of it).
