Chinastocks
COVID Zero Softening ? $BABAI'm following $BABA since a while for now and I think that is one of the biggest companies in the sector. China has a lot a potencial but we have to achive some millestones before we breakout this endless falling we're suffering. I'm LONG $BABA from this point. Perhaps until 85$ where the POC developes.
LKNCY - Breakout Entered Advance StageLKNCY has made a powerful breakout from its accumulation zone. This breakthrough came on the back of strong quarterly earnings, positive net income, and growing revenue.
INTRODUCTION:
LKNCY is a strong rival of Starbucks in China. It is rapidly adding new stores, reaching the nationwide number of nearly 8,000. In contrast, Starbucks has 6,000 stores in China despite its decades-long presence.
BREAKOUT & ADVANCE STAGE:
When a stock enters Advance Stage (called as Stage-2), its movement gets fast particularly when it is supported by strong earnings. LKNCY stayed in Accumulation Zone (Stage-1) rangebound for almost 2 years while the company did not post positive earnings for many years. But now, it has broken the resistance of accumulation stage, and entered advance stage on the back of impressive quarterly earnings.
EARNINGS GROWTH
Luckin's post-quarter revenue is up 18% while post-quarter earning has expanded a whopping 561%. Its earning trend and footprint growth in China shows it to be a truly growth stock. It has had negative margin for the past few years which kept its price growth lurking and slow. However, its revenue growth has never slowed down because of its rapid expansion and widening customer base.
FUTURE PROSPECTS
Although not enough data is available about the future growth of LKNCY, its current growth trend reveal good prospects for the future. Its technicals are sound and financials are rapidly improving.
HSI Anticipating lower high Weekly Analysis, looking for a lower high compared to 22565 with Weekly Hidden Bearish Divergence on both RSI & MACD
Using retraces for entries, tight stop at the .786 in case of possible reversal and full position at the .886
If you agree or disagree with the setup, please let me know and explain ! We're all here to learn and grow off each other!
PDD is following Up-Trending ChannelAfter following long-term down-trending channel, PDD has now taken successful reversal.
It is now:
1. Following an up-trending channel
2. Has completed Golden cross (50 MA crossed above 200 MA)
3. Has support of positivity in Chinese market
4. Has support of improving financial performance
Have any questions? Please feel free to ask in the comments.
Refer my previous article to know more about PDD.
PDD - Read to Fly?
PDD is ready to fly. Here are some solid reasons:
REASON 1 - Accumulation Completed
Down since February 2021, this e-commerce platform of China has taken a reversal. Entered accumulation zone in March 2022, now enough buying volumes and positive earnings have pushed it out of the accumulation zone. Breakout has occurred at 73 USD key price level, and so now stock seems to have entered advance zone while the key long-term resistance (All Time High) is at 214 USD - a gain of more than 100% possible.
REASON 2 - Higher Revenues & Net Income
The real fuel is provided by better earnings and further higher expectations in the future. Revenue has grown 23% in TTM while income has swelled 260% in TTM - both are impressive signals of continued growth. Further pedestal is provided by positive expectations of end of lock-down in China which can open-up locked industrial growth.
Risk
Still caution is needed as markets aren't out of wood.
FUTU - Breakout for Big Jump (150% Gain)Futu - a Chinese online brokerage & wealth management platform has finally broken its resistance of accumulation zone forming an ascending-triangle chart pattern.
This stock has tremendous potential. Let's know why:
1. Accumulation Completed
Futu entered accumulation stage (stage 1) somewhere in December 2021 following a steep fall inline with general market decline. Its growth was contained. But after a long accumulation period of about 1 year it has finally broken its accumulation zone with ascending triangle pattern, and has swiftly entered advanced stage (stage 2). One word of caution here: Buying volumes are not so high, but golden cross is imminent.
2. Earnings
Futu's revenues, which had slowed down in FY-2022, have again geared up with PQ growth of 11% in the recent quarter. Likewise, net income has grown 17%. These increases are not so high as they were in the previous years when Futu did mind-boggling growth, but mild gains are quite possible. Moreover, as it is a fast growing brokerage platform, its growth will resonate with the general market growth.
China A50 set for a corrective bounce?The China A50 has rallied over 13% since the October low and has since retraced to the 61.8% Fibonacci level. An elongated bullish Pinbar formed yesterday which shows strong demand around the bullish engulfing candle and marking a potential swing low within a bullish retracement channel. We are now looking for a break above 12,350 to assume bullish continuation and a move back towards the 13,000 resistance zone.
This could be the final move of a 3-wave correction, before it reverts to its bearish trend.
LU Lufax Holding Options Ahead Of EarningsLooking at the LU Lufax Holding options chain ahead of earnings , i would buy the $2.5 strike price Calls with
2023-1-20 expiration date for about
$0.20 premium.
If the options turn out to be profitable Before the earnings release, i would sell at least 50%.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
LU Lufax Most Undervalued Chinese StockFor the China reopening thesis i think LU Lufax Holding is the one of the most undervalued stocks you can own right now! And i will tell you why!
LU Lufax Holding has a ridiculous PE Ratio (TTM) of only 1.81!
The Forward Dividend & Yield is 0.51 (21.79%)!
Last year the stock was $18.30. It has lost most than 90% of its value, while the business is growing and pays dividends.
The yield alone is a big gain, even if the price stays flat.
Last year Morgan Stanley had a price target for LU of $13 while JPMorgan Chase of $15.
3rd biggest shareholder is BlackRock, with an estimated average of $6.11.
You can but the stock now 3 times cheaper than BlackRock.
The average daily volume in the past 3 months is high, more than $10Mil daily (i think someone is accumulating).
My price target is the $7.10 resistance. I believe LU is a premium call.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Nio (NIO) | Attractive $10 vol.2Hi,
Technically speaking not the best criteria but not so bad either so I would like to share it as an idea. Combine fundamental analysis with technical, fundamental is your own thing but some technical viewpoints are:
1. The round number $10
2. Gap fill from 2020 June
3. Fibo Extension
4. Previously worked resistance level
Do your fundamentals, it should be a strong one because be ready to grab it from lower prices as well but to start building NIO positions it looks correct spot, at least technically speaking.
Good luck,
Vaido
Selling CN50 previous support.CHN50 - 21h expiry - We look to Sell at 12340 (stop at 12570)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible.
A higher correction is expected.
The bias is still for lower levels and we look for any gains to be limited.
We therefore, prefer to fade into the rally with a tight stop in anticipation of a move back lower.
Our profit targets will be 11685 and 11485
Resistance: 12270 / 12950 / 13370
Support: 11485 / 11000 / 10490
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changing in correlation between china and US stocksAdding more symbols to my indicator of correlations and finding an inversion of correlations between Us and China stocks, from a high positive correlation in the long-term (1-year, 3-months) to a less and negative correlation in the swing-term (1-Month, 1-Week).
this pivot is interesting to me
BABA MOMENTUM POSITIVEWeekly Chart - BABA
I am taking an interest in BABA here. It has been in a steep correction for well over a year and appears to have made a bullish wedge. What really has my attention is not only the price breakout above but also the momentum break. I may leave myself a little room and time here but I personally may take a heavier interest if it stays this cheap or drags sideways.
These patterns are great for trading the spikes but there are no guarantees. It's not uncommon to see a large spike up (15-30%) only to correct and go nowhere for weeks or months. A breakout does not guarantee profit.. but for me the reward outweighs the risk in this zone.
Let's see what happens.
China A50 index to fall below the 500-week moving average?China A50 index ( CN50 ), a measure of the Chinese onshore market that keeps track of 50 of the biggest Chinese A-share companies listed on the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchanges, broke a major upward trend that had been in place since 2016.
The technical picture sees the A50 index currently dominated by a descending channel pattern, having fallen 42% from its peak in February 2021, with prices now approaching a remarkable 500-week moving average.
Given the slowdown in the Chinese economy caused by the government's Zero covid policy, the downward trend in Chinese stocks has been ongoing for a while. However, the most recent sell-off has been triggered by a crumbling confidence among foreign investors as a result of Xi Jinping's reelection as president for a third term and a leadership reshuffle within the Politburo Standing Committee during the 20th National Congress.
The A50 index may not have reached its bottom yet, if the Zero-Covid policy and growing doubts about the new policymakers' plans for the country's economic future continue to dampen Chinese growth prospects. Even though the weekly RSI is beginning to exhibit extremely oversold conditions, which is extremely unusual for this market and hasn't happened since August 2011, bears still have total control over the index. But, given the wild price swings of the past few days, some technical and short-term price bounces could still happen.
The psychological 11,000 point level, which is down 7% from here, and the 10,200 point level, which was the low of January 2019 (down 14% from here), provide the next significant supports. The A50 will have dropped 50% from its peak if it reaches levels from January 2019, which might encourage some dip buying there.
Did $BABA stock BOTTOM?My experience
I owned shares of Alibaba for the last 10 months. I started buying when it dropped to $140 in November 2021, and then I started averaging costing during the downtrend, my average price was around $110 and I completely closed my position at the beginning of July 2022 when it traded at $120. In conclusion, made a small 10% during this period, assuming a lot of risks, having money stuck in there creating an opportunity cost for other investments.
My first lesson here was "Never try to catch a falling knife" . I've read this quote many times, but I got pushed by the FOMO back in 2021, when I should have waited for some consolidation or lateral movements of the price, to show me some kind of demand at this level before jumping in.
I'm sharing my experience in this situation with the idea to help someone with making better investment decisions. The truth is, you must always learn from your own mistakes. But learning from others' mistakes will save you time, stress and money. However, this is where experience lays, funny isn't it?
Long-Term Forecast
Alibaba is a very interesting business model, with incredible growth in the past. I think that the chart reflects an evolution from a Growth Company to a Stable Company , that's why the P/E valuation went from 30x in the past to 15x nowadays. The market included the growth slowdown to its market cap.
Of course, there are many other risks related to Alibaba that also impacted its price during the last year. Some of them are:
- Uncertainty Risk is related to the political pressure between the USA and China.
- Delisting Risk from NYSE.
- Monopoly fines from China.
Changes in Chinese state policy regarding publicly traded enterprises , the warming of relations between the US and China, as well as current geopolitical developments where China is implied have created uncertainty for investors. This results in a negative impact on the price of the stock.
There are factors that could influence the Chinese government to be tolerant and lower the pressure on publicly traded enterprises, particularly if they choose to give a higher priority to stronger GDP development .
Taking everything into account, this could be a fantastic buying opportunity if China is becoming the next world's superpower. However, from my personal point of view, I would rather have companies like Alphabet, Amazon, Apple and Microsoft in my portfolio. I see better potential returns in them.
Short-Term Forecast
The price is showing consolidation in the zone between $80-$120, the lower part of the channel reflects a strong demand, which is easily spotted by the strong bounces that it has from there. You can also try to trade it by buying near the bottom of the lateral channel and selling it at the top.
$BABA released good quarterly earnings, beating expectations in sales and EPS. We should also take into account that when your revenue stays flat in an inflationary environment, probably your income from operations is going to decrease, and that's what happened here.
Bullish Scenario
If the momentum stays and the market breaks and maintains the $4300 level we can see a significant upside in this stock. Taking it to 120-160 dollars per share. Which in my humble opinion is less likely due to the market conditions and economic challenges that we are facing. The RECESSION is here, and the INFLATION has to go straight down from these levels to prevent a crash in the financial markets.
Bearish Scenario
If the INFLATION is unstoppable at these interest rates, the market is going to be severely punished. Less consumer demand due to the recession will impact companies' margins. Profit warnings from companies will accelerate the crash. If we find ourselves in this situation, get your cash ready, many investment opportunities will be out there waiting for us. In this case, I would adapt my strategy, and I could consider buying some $BABA at $60 for sure.
Alibaba is having strong buybacks from the management. The company has plenty of cash which is going to be used to reduce the outstanding amount of shares and to undertake investment projects. The Debt-Equity Ratio is around 15%, and the company has a healthy balance sheet. The Cloud Segment is getting bigger and it can also be a very important stream of income in the future for the firm. The company is actually trading at 10X Price / Cash Flow, which historically has meant that it is a good buy at this level. From a financial perspective, I think that $BABA is undervalued.
The above mentioned characteristics made me start buying the stock at $140, my mistake was that I didn't properly analyse the risks this investment had. Not everything is in the accounting books! Keep your eyes open!
I stand SHORT for the next 6-12 months and LONG for the next 3-5 years.
Don't forget, I'm a random guy on the internet that is just sharing his point of view. Do not take my reflections as financial advice.
PDD reverts to 70 fair price; Inv H&S targets 119.PDD after bottoming after a H&S at the top, createa another inverse H&S & HAS SINCE REACHED THE COMMON NECKLINE AROUND 70, which I think is the market”s FAIR PRICE.
Let us wait which direction this will lead to but I AM BIASED LONG. TP is 119 for H&S pattern measured move.
Not trading advice
000001The price return At Extreme UpTrendline And break resistance zone
As you can see.
I highly recommend buying this stock now and holding it.
I expect the price to continue to rise until 3620.2176.
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For more Idea.
Good luck everyone.
any questions contact me.