Xiamen Changelight Soars 108% in Just 16 Days!Xiamen Changelight Analysis:
Xiamen Changelight has seen a phenomenal rally, achieving a stunning 108% gain over the past 16 days. The recent bullish momentum has allowed the stock to achieve all target levels, with each level surpassed in quick succession.
Trade Setup:
Entry Point: $8.11
Stop Loss: $7.86
Target Levels:
TP 1: $8.41
TP 2: $8.90
TP 3: $9.38
TP 4: $9.69
Technical Indicators:
The stock has trended strongly above the Risological dotted trend line, showing a clear uptrend and sustained buying pressure. The price action’s alignment with this trend suggests confidence among buyers and the potential for continuation if volume remains supportive.
Market Sentiment:
The sharp rise in share price reflects strong interest in Xiamen Changelight, potentially driven by fundamental catalysts or broader market trends in its industry. With robust volume supporting the upward movement, the momentum appears sustainable, although some consolidation might occur after such a large gain.
Outlook:
With all targets reached, traders should monitor for any pullback or consolidation phase as new support levels are established. The strong trend could attract further interest, especially if broader sentiment remains positive. Keep an eye on volume and price stability to assess if another leg up is likely in the coming sessions.
Chinesestocks
CHINA A50 Buy signal couldn't have gone any better!Last time we looked at the China A50 index (CN50) was almost 2 months ago (September 06, see chart below) when we called for a buy opportunity:
As you can see, it couldn't have gone any better as the price rebounded exactly on our mark, hitting our 12100 Target in a matter of days.
Now the index is on a relief consolidation following this enormous rally that broke above the nearly 4-year Channel Down. Every time we had a similar bullish break-out, the market reached at least its 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, we expect to see 19500 by mid 2025.
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JD.COM PT63$ after breaking the long term trendlineJD.com broke the minor trend lines and is heading towards the long term trendline. This level is also enforced by prior highs/lows that acted as pívot points.
If broken, I would expect to extend the final of the third Elliot leg to the 63$ area, then back test the broken trendline, and then attack the ATH again.
Please let me know your thoughts!
Xiaomi (1810): Major Gains, Next Targets and Updated StrategyThe Hang Seng Index and its constituent stocks have been surging higher, with Xiaomi leading the charge 🚀. The setup we had on Xiaomi was quite similar to the one for Alibaba, featuring a tight stop-loss and a high risk-to-reward ratio, which, just like NYSE:BABA , worked out perfectly. Although we aimed to catch the end of wave (ii), we missed the entry by just a few HKD. Despite this, the position is now up an impressive 85% since we initially sent out the entry back in March.
We have taken our first round of profits as we haven't locked in any gains yet, and we have moved our stop-loss to the break-even point. However, we are confident that Xiaomi will not revisit this level for a long time. We took profits upon reaching a key wave 3 extension level. While we expect further gains on the lower time frame, we must also respect what the higher time frame indicates. Whether it's longing wave (iv) or wave 4, the choice depends on whether we are right about the higher or also the lower time frame. On the higher time frame, we anticipate a maximum rise to 30 HKD before we see a significant correction.
We believe there is still substantial upside potential for Xiaomi – it's only a matter of time. We'll keep monitoring both scenarios closely and act accordingly 📈.
China Stocks: What to Expect When Markets Reopen Stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong took off last week and continued their climb on Monday, posting their best single-day rally in 16 years. This surge came after several announcements from Beijing aimed at boosting the country’s economy.
But now, The Shanghai Stock Exchange will be closed from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for China’s National Day celebrations, and Hong Kong’s market will also shut on Oct. 1. However, U.S.-listed China ETFs will still be trading, so when the Chinese exchanges reopen on Oct. 7, we could see big moves as global investors get ahead of the Chinese market.
China’s stock market is known for its wild swings, mainly because retail investors make up about two-thirds of the trading. That means we might see some significant volatility once the markets open back up.
CHINA A50 Death Cross to push it lower but buy opportunity lurksThe China A50 index (CN50) completed yesterday a 1D Death Cross following a convincing rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and that should extend the Channel Down to a new Lower Low.
Technically it appears to far to be in good symmetry with the Falling Wedge's previous Bearish Leg, that found a temporary bottom after a -14.76% decline and rebounded to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, despite the current weakness, we expect this last push to stop around 11100 - 11000 and then rebound to 12100 (0.618 Fib).
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CHINA A50 Rebound expected.The China A50 index (CN50) eventually closed below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) last time we looked into it (June 14, see chart below) and hit our 11800 downside Target:
The long-term pattern remains bearish in the form of a Falling Wedge, but right now we expect a medium-term counter-trend rebound similar to the one that followed the May 30 2023 Low and reached the 0.236 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we turn bullish on this index, targeting 12350 (0.236 Fib and top of the Falling Wedge).
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Trade Idea: Long on Baidu (BIDU) Overview:
Baidu (BIDU), a leading Chinese tech giant, is currently sitting at multi-year lows. Despite the broader Chinese economy facing challenges, Baidu presents a compelling opportunity due to its strong correlation with the overall Chinese market. The attached chart highlights this correlation, showing BIDU's performance in tandem with the Chinese economy's trends.
Valuation Comparison:
In a market where NVIDIA’s valuation surpasses the combined worth of Germany's and General Motors', opportunities in the Chinese market appear more reasonable. Baidu, with its substantial undervaluation, offers a potential upside that is hard to ignore.
Technological Edge:
A recent study by International Data Corporation (IDC) underscores Baidu's prowess in generative artificial intelligence (GenAI). Baidu’s Wenxin Yiyan and Wenxin Yige, comparable to ChatGPT and Midjourney, respectively, outperformed in categories like question-and-answer comprehension, reasoning, creative expression, mathematics, and coding. This technological advantage positions Baidu as a leader in AI, a crucial growth sector.
Conclusion:
With Baidu trading at significant lows and its robust performance in GenAI, the company is poised for potential growth. The Chinese market, despite its current economic hurdles, offers more attractive valuations compared to the overheated US tech market. This creates a strategic entry point for long positions in BIDU.
This overview provides a snapshot of Baidu’s potential as a strategic investment. If you’re interested in a deeper analysis, drop a comment below, and I’ll prepare a more detailed breakdown.
Trading is like a game of Monopoly—there's strategy, luck, and sometimes you end up in jail! 🎲 Always consult with a financial advisor and do your own research before making any big moves.
CHINA A50 Is this 1W MA50 rebound breaking the bearish trend?On December 21 2023 (see chart below) the China A50 index (CN50) gave us the best buy entry possible on more than 1 year span:
The price increased on this Bullish Leg and a month ago reached the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Falling Wedge. At the same time, it broke above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since December 28 2021, giving the first long-term buy signal in years.
Regardless of this signal, the index got rejected at the top of the Falling Wedge and is on a 4 week decline. However it reached this week the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) again and so far reacted positively by holding it. As long as it holds and closes the 1W candles above it, it is more likely that this will transition into a rebound, which will be the 2nd and final long-term buy signal.
In that case, we expect the index to finally break above the Falling Wedge and stage a long-term pursuit of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Our Target will be 13550 (slightly below Resistance 1).
If however the 1W MA50 breaks (closes candle below it), we will take the small loss and open a sell, targeting 11800 (the 0.5 Fibonacci level), similar to the March 14 2023 decline. The confirmation for this signal will come if the 1W MACD forms a Bearish Cross.
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Alibaba - Back to bearish (not)?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Alibaba .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
After Alibaba broke below the major support trendline in 2021 we saw a massive correction of -75% towards the downside. Alibaba was then retesting another major level, this time a previous support area which is at $60. So far Alibaba stock is still respecting the bearish trendline, but it is just a matter of time until we will see a bullish trading opportunity on this stock.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Alibaba - Don't forget chinese stocks!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Alibaba.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Back in 2020 Alibaba stock created a textbook breakout of an ascending triangle formation which was followed by more continuation towards the upside. Then Alibaba stock topped out in 2021 and we saw a massive decline of -80% from the previous highs. At the moment Alibaba is still in a very bearish market but there is a chance that we will see a reversal in the near future.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Alibaba - Trading opportunity is finally there!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Alibaba .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Almost a decade ago Alibaba stock retested a strong support at the psychological $60 level and reversed significantly towards the upside. Just a couple of months ago Alibaba stock once again retested this support and created an anticipated reversal. If Alibaba stock actually manages to break above the current resistance trendline, we could maybe see a similar rally like we saw in 2015 and the following years.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BABA: Set for a Bullish Reversal, Potential Gains Exceed 50%?Hi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NYSE:BABA !
On the weekly chart, BABA is making some exciting moves! It's broken out of a falling wedge pattern, forming a bullish candlestick with a long wick right on the EMA 34 line. But what really caught our eye? The significant volume spike, more than double the average. Now, why does this matter? Well, it's a clear sign of increased buying interest and strong market conviction behind the price movement. And wait, there's more good news: the MACD indicator is showing a bullish divergence, hinting at a potential reversal. So, what's the forecast? We're looking at a potential upward swing to close the gap near our first target at $117.89. After that, we might see a slight dip to the yellow zone before it continues its rally towards our second target at $165.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd."
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below
CHINA A50 on the 1W MA100 after 2.5 years! Ultimate Bull test!When we looked at the China A50 index (CN50) last year (December 21 2023, see chart below), we got the best buy entry possible on more than 1 year span:
Our long-term Target at the time of 13000 is almost hit but it now time to re-evaluate our perspective as the index not only hit the top of its almost 2-year Falling Wedge but more importantly made contact with the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time in almost 2.5 years (since the week of December 28 2021).
This is the ultimate test for the Chinese market. A closing above that Resistance cluster, will turn us bullish again, targeting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at 14250. Until that closing happens, we turn bearish on the medium-term, targeting 11850 (just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level).
It has to be mentioned that the 1W RSI has already made a bullish break-out above its 3-year Lower Highs trend-line, potentially hinting finally towards a long-term trend change to bullish.
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Tencent Set to Release 'Dungeon and Fighter' Mobile Game in May Tencent Holdings, ( NYSE:TME ) the Chinese multinational giant, has announced the release of its highly anticipated mobile game, 'Dungeon and Fighter: Origin'. Developed by Korean company Nexon, the game is a mobile adaptation of the popular computer game 'Dungeon and Fighter', which is considered to be one of the world's most profitable computer games.
This announcement comes after seven years of development, during which the game initially received government approval for release in 2017, before having its approval revoked. However, Tencent was granted a new license for the game in February of this year.
The official release date for 'Dungeon and Fighter: Origin' has been set for May 21. The action game is expected to be a significant addition to Tencent's mobile game portfolio, given its immense popularity and profitability.
Technical Outlook
Tencent Holdings, ( NYSE:TME ) stock is up 2.29% prior the fundamentals trading above the 200-day Moving Average (MA) with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 58. The stock has consolidated in price for the 2nd time starting a new rising trend after the current consolidation faced at $11.76 pivot point.
Tencent's Rocket Ride: Heading for 1338 HKD?
For Tencent Holdings, we currently believe we are in an overarching Wave III, which should be created with a 5-wave structure upwards. This should naturally extend far beyond the Wave I level at the all-time high of 715 HKD. We anticipate a rise to at least 1338 HKD for this overarching Wave III. Wave II concluded at 188.6 HKD. Zooming in, we see that we are about to complete Waves (1) and (3) and soon enter into the Wave (3). Wave (2), as we expect, might dip slightly further, to 241 HKD. However, we are convinced that we could be in a long upward trend. Therefore, we do not want to be stopped out prematurely, as it would be quite unnecessary. A double bottom at 188 HKD cannot be ruled out. Thus, we place our entry at the 50% extension for the very subordinate Wave ((v)) and just above the 78.6% retracement level for the subordinate Wave (2). This would create what's known as a Fibonacci retracement cluster, where there should be a significant buying potential. We will see how it unfolds in the coming weeks or days. Should there be a rise above 297 HKD, we may need to reconsider our stance.
Xiaomi: Next Big Bang on the Hong Kong Stock Market?
For another interesting Chinese stock, we're looking at the mobile phone manufacturer Xiaomi, trading on the Hong Kong Exchange. Hence, we're dealing with the Hong Kong Dollar, not the US Dollar. Overarchingly, we are also in a Wave III here. Wave II concluded its correction with a double bottom at HK$8.28. This chart adheres well to the Elliott Wave structure, showcasing many patterns that align well.
Currently, we believe we are in a subordinate Wave 3, having completed the subordinate Wave ((ii)) between the 61.8% and 78.6% levels. Unlike other stocks, we aim to place a market entry here, as we anticipate that we should not fall below the 78.6% level. Else we could come back to the low of 8.28 HKD.
Wuxi Biologics (2269): Incredible long-term opportunity! Wuxi Biologics (2269): HKEX:2269
Wuxi Biologics, a Chinese biotech research company listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, presents a complex investment scenario. It's crucial to note we're dealing with the Hong Kong Dollar, not the US dollar. The comprehensive analysis on the weekly chart suggests that since June 2021, the company has been undergoing a correction defense scenario. This downturn has been so pronounced that the stock might need to reach its origin point at 8.56 HKD to complete the correction cycle of Wave 2 through Wave (Y) in blue. This process is expected to involve an initial surge followed by a downturn.
While there's potential for early position building, the decision to do so carries its uncertainties, given regulatory concerns and the stock's unpredictable future. Our strategy is to remain patient, observing how events unfold. Even with a 30% stop-loss threshold, which practically doesn't apply given the upside, we anticipate a minimum 2600% movement for Wave III in red, with the potential to reach an extraordinary 6000% at maximum. Such figures outline the vast upward trajectory expected, not just through Wave 3 but also with an ensuing Wave V.
Therefore, we are comfortable waiting and watching for the right entry point. Even if we decide to enter the market at a later stage, we expect that Wuxi Biologics will still offer significant opportunities.
JD.com Resurgence: Surpassing Expectations JD.com (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:JD ), the Chinese e-commerce giant, has emerged victorious in the face of economic headwinds, defying expectations with impressive fourth-quarter revenue figures that have ignited a surge in investor confidence. With shares soaring 15% , JD.com's strategic maneuvers and resilience in a challenging market landscape have captured the attention of analysts and stakeholders alike.
The company's success in the final quarter of 2023, buoyed by aggressive price cuts and heavy discounts during China's renowned Singles Day shopping festival, underscores its ability to adapt and thrive amidst economic turbulence. Despite China's shaky economic growth and concerns surrounding youth unemployment and stagnant wages, JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) innovative approach to stimulating consumer demand has yielded remarkable results.
Chief Executive Sandy Xu Ran's announcement of plans to expand JD.com's international presence marks a pivotal moment in the company's trajectory. With a keen focus on supply chain optimization, JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) aims to establish itself as a global powerhouse, leveraging its distinct business model and competitive advantages to penetrate new markets.
The prospect of JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) potential acquisition of UK electronics retailer Currys further underscores its commitment to international expansion. As the company seeks to diversify its revenue streams and mitigate risks associated with domestic market fluctuations, analysts anticipate a strategic move that could bolster JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) global footprint and drive long-term growth.
JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) stellar quarterly performance, with net revenue surpassing analyst estimates at 306.1 billion yuan ($42.52 billion), reflects its enduring popularity among cost-conscious consumers. Despite concerns stemming from an internal audit of its Dada Nexus unit, JD.com's overall revenue remains robust, alleviating investor apprehensions and reaffirming confidence in the company's resilience.
Moreover, JD.com's ( NASDAQ:JD ) announcement of a $3 billion share repurchase program underscores its commitment to enhancing shareholder value and capitalizing on market opportunities. With its U.S.-listed shares experiencing a recent downturn, JD.com's proactive measures signal a strategic pivot towards revitalizing investor sentiment and unlocking future growth potential.
As JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) reports a net income attributable to shareholders of 3.4 billion yuan, marking a significant increase from the previous year, the company's trajectory appears poised for further success. With a steadfast focus on innovation, expansion, and shareholder value, JD.com ( NASDAQ:JD ) continues to navigate the complexities of the global market with confidence and determination.
BABA forming a head and shoulders patternThis chonk has been talked about alot. Because we are all trying to figure out why the 2nd amazon of the world has been beat down so bad.
So, here we are, with a beautiful and crystal clear line in the sand thick neck line. Break that neck line, confirm the pattern, off to the races. 125 target long term ,then reestablish a view. ||Chart is inverted.
BYD's Earnings Rollercoaster: Price Wars and Global DemandsIn a recent filing with the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, BYD Co. ( NYSE:BYD ) announced a robust surge in its 2023 net income, projecting an increase of 75% to 86.5% compared to the previous year. Despite this impressive growth, the company fell short of analyst expectations, sparking a 5.44% drop in NYSE:BYD shares and extending losses to roughly 37% over the past year. The complex dynamics of a price war in China, fluctuating global demand, and geopolitical tensions have shaped NYSE:BYD 's financial landscape, offering investors a unique narrative to decipher.
I. Electric Vehicle Sales Triumph:
NYSE:BYD 's ascent to become the top electric vehicle (EV) maker by sales in the final quarter of 2023, outpacing industry giant Tesla, marked a significant milestone for the Chinese automaker. Bolstered by soaring sales in China, NYSE:BYD delivered 526,409 fully electric cars, surpassing Tesla for the first time. The impressive feat was attributed to BYD's extensive lineup of more affordable EV models, highlighting the company's strategic positioning in the world's largest auto market.
II. Price War Woes:
Despite the stellar sales performance, NYSE:BYD faced the challenges of a price war in China's fiercely competitive EV landscape. In a bid to achieve annual delivery targets, the Shenzhen-based company implemented aggressive discounts, slashing prices on popular models like Qin, Han, and Tang by as much as 10,000 yuan. The impact of this pricing strategy has been reflected in NYSE:BYD 's earnings report, where net income fell short of the average analyst estimate.
III. Geopolitical Scrutiny:
NYSE:BYD 's success has not shielded it from geopolitical tensions, as the company finds itself under the European Commission's anti-subsidy investigation. Alongside two other carmakers, NYSE:BYD faces scrutiny to determine if state support from the Chinese government has provided an unfair advantage. Navigating this investigation adds a layer of uncertainty to NYSE:BYD 's future, as regulatory challenges could potentially impact the company's global operations.
IV. Slower Growth Pace and Profitability:
While NYSE:BYD 's net profit is expected to show a remarkable increase, the growth rate in 2023 is notably slower than the exceptional 446% surge witnessed in 2022. Despite fierce industry competition, NYSE:BYD emphasizes significant improvement in profitability and resilience, attributing its success to factors such as rapid growth in overseas sales, a scale advantage, and efficient cost control within the supply chain.
V. Future Outlook:
NYSE:BYD 's foray into the Southeast Asian market with the unveiling of three battery EV models in Indonesia signals the company's ambitious expansion plans. As NYSE:BYD aims to secure the top market position in Southeast Asia's largest economy, the global EV landscape remains dynamic and unpredictable. Investors will closely watch how NYSE:BYD navigates the evolving industry landscape, responds to geopolitical challenges, and sustains its momentum in the face of intense competition.
Conclusion:
NYSE:BYD 's journey in 2023 has been characterized by triumphs in sales, challenges in pricing strategies, and the looming shadow of geopolitical scrutiny. The company's ability to navigate these complexities will shape its trajectory in the rapidly evolving electric vehicle market. As investors assess the risks and rewards associated with NYSE:BYD , the story unfolds as a compelling narrative of a company grappling with the highs and lows of a transformative industry.
MOMO LongI don't usually post trade setups that include eliott waves, however this one is really captivating.
MOMO completed a 5 wave Impulse from its low before recently completing an ABC correction where the second wave completed at a perfect bearish bat, and then the wave hit its measured move below the key support level. The correction waves bottomed out at a key level from history that coincides with the 0.618 fib retracement level from the low to high of the Impulse phase. This potentially signals a wave 2 completion of a larger 5 Wave Impulse up
One of the strongest setups we look for is a spring backtest, where an asset falls below a key level, before springing back above that key level and backtesting it as support. In this case we are yet to backtest it as support. However, we have sprung and are showing lots of bullish divergence, so within the community we have started to layer in from this level.
First target at a key resistance already gives us a 38% return against a potential 8% loss.
CHINA A50: Time to buy Chinese stocks.The China A50 index (CN50) has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern since July 2022 and more recently in particular hasn't been able to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since September 08. That bearish sentiment may be coming to an end as the 1D MACD is about to form a new Bullish Cross in the same order as the November 01 2022 Low.
This could be the bottom (Lower Low) of the Falling Wedge and the start of the new Bullish Leg towards the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, as the January 28 2023 High did. We are now buyers on this index, targeting the top of the Falling Wedge at 13000.
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