CHINA A50 Rebound expected.China A50 index (CN50) has been trading within a Channel Down since the October 18 2024 Low and is currently attempting to hold its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as Support. If successful, we expect this Bullish Leg to approach the top of the pattern.
The shortest Bullish Leg rise has been +10.94% so a 13900 Target would be well within the risk limits.
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Chinesestocks
BILI Projects to $100Bilibili Inc. is a leading provider of online entertainment tailored for the youth of the People's Republic of China. The company boasts a diverse array of digital offerings, including professionally produced user-generated videos, mobile gaming experiences, and enhanced services like live streaming, occupationally created videos, audio dramas on Maoer, and comics available through Bilibili Comic. Additionally, Bilibili offers advertising solutions, IP derivatives, and various other services. The company is also involved in business and technology development, e-commerce, and the distribution of videos, comics, and games. Established in 2009, Bilibili Inc. is based in Shanghai, China.
Bilibili is currently priced at $20.81, indicating it may be undervalued according to discounted cash flow analysis, which suggests a fair value of $28.84. Although there has been notable insider selling recently, the stock remains 28% below its estimated fair value and is projected to achieve profitability within the next three years, surpassing average market growth rates. While the anticipated revenue growth of 10.2% per year is not as robust as one might hope, it still outpaces the overall US market's growth rate of 8.9%.
$BEKE Inverse head and shouldersKE Holdings Inc. is a publicly traded Chinese real estate holding firm that offers a comprehensive online and offline platform for housing transactions and related services through its subsidiaries. It stands as the largest online real estate transaction platform in China.
Investors commonly refer to the entire operation as "Beike."
The company has garnered financial support from major players like Tencent, SoftBank Group, and Hillhouse Investment.
In August 2020, KE made its debut on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), successfully raising $2.12 billion during its initial public offering. On its first trading day, the stock soared by 87%, bringing the company's valuation to nearly $40 billion.
By May 2022, KE expanded its reach by becoming a dual-listed entity, adding its shares to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.
KE operates two primary businesses: Lianjia and Beike. Lianjia functions as a real estate agency, while Beike serves as an online platform that connects customers with estate agents, including Lianjia. Lianjia is often likened to Redfin, whereas Beike is compared to Zillow.
The company is divided into four key business segments:
1. Existing home transaction services
2. New home transaction services
3. Home renovation and furnishing
4. Emerging and other services
$NTES NETEASE to benefit from Chinese stimulus.NetEase, Inc. is a prominent Chinese internet technology firm established by Ding Lei in June 1997. The company offers a diverse range of online services encompassing content, community engagement, communication, and commerce. It specializes in the development and operation of online games for both PC and mobile platforms, alongside advertising, email services, and e-commerce solutions within China. As one of the largest players in the global internet and video game industry, NetEase also manages several pig farms. Additionally, it features an on-demand music streaming service. Notable video game titles from NetEase include Fantasy Westward Journey, Tianxia III, Heroes of Tang Dynasty Zero, and Ghost II. From 2008 to 2023, the company was responsible for the Chinese versions of popular Blizzard Entertainment games, including World of Warcraft, StarCraft II, and Overwatch. In August 2023, NetEase unveiled a new American studio, spearheaded by veterans from Bethesda and BioWare.
Chinese Internet Stocks on the Edge: KWEB vs. FXI Introduction:
The Chinese internet sector AMEX:KWEB is at a critical juncture when compared to large-cap Chinese stocks AMEX:FXI . The ratio between these two reflects sector leadership—if KWEB outperforms, it signals renewed strength in internet stocks and suggests the sector is leading.
Current Market Context:
Potential Breakdown: The KWEB-to-FXI ratio is teetering near key support. A breakdown here would be a bearish signal for Chinese internet stocks.
Bullish Outlook: However, bulls are closely watching for signs of outperformance from KWEB, which could indicate the start of a new bullish trend.
Higher-Low Formation: If the ratio forms a higher low relative to its long-term trend, it would be a sign of potential strength in the internet sector.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: Monitor the ratio’s current support level closely. A breakdown below this could lead to increased selling pressure on KWEB.
Resistance: A breakout above recent highs would indicate renewed outperformance and signal a bullish rotation into internet stocks.
Conclusion:
KWEB is at a make-or-break point, and the coming days could determine its fate. If the sector can establish a higher low and break above resistance, it could signal a bullish shift for Chinese internet stocks. Will KWEB lead, or will large-cap Chinese stocks maintain their dominance? Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
Charts:
(Include a chart showing the KWEB-to-FXI ratio, marking key support, resistance, and any signs of higher-low formations.)
Tags: #KWEB #FXI #ChineseStocks #InternetSector #SectorLeadership #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends #China
$BABA Falling wedge breakout on dailyNYSE:BABA falling wedge breakout confirmed with MACD signalling bullish trend.
There's volume gap just above 90 to 94 where price can move very fast.
All sentiment indicator has been very bearish lately which makes me come to conclusion that this was the bottom.
Market was positioning for TRUMP to possibly put on 60% tarrifs on china which doesn't seem to be happening now as Trump has suggested negotiations with President XI
my PT is $99 for BABA in next 3 months
$PDD reversal finally coming for China stocks?PDD set to make a bullish move. Price at trendline going back to May and also at the demand zone from September before October’s parabolic move. RSI, MACD, and STOCH are all curling up and oversold. A break above 102.50 and this will explode higher. Initial PT at 110 and followed by gapfill PT at 114. SL at break and close of bottom trendline.
Xiamen Changelight Soars 108% in Just 16 Days!Xiamen Changelight Analysis:
Xiamen Changelight has seen a phenomenal rally, achieving a stunning 108% gain over the past 16 days. The recent bullish momentum has allowed the stock to achieve all target levels, with each level surpassed in quick succession.
Trade Setup:
Entry Point: $8.11
Stop Loss: $7.86
Target Levels:
TP 1: $8.41
TP 2: $8.90
TP 3: $9.38
TP 4: $9.69
Technical Indicators:
The stock has trended strongly above the Risological dotted trend line, showing a clear uptrend and sustained buying pressure. The price action’s alignment with this trend suggests confidence among buyers and the potential for continuation if volume remains supportive.
Market Sentiment:
The sharp rise in share price reflects strong interest in Xiamen Changelight, potentially driven by fundamental catalysts or broader market trends in its industry. With robust volume supporting the upward movement, the momentum appears sustainable, although some consolidation might occur after such a large gain.
Outlook:
With all targets reached, traders should monitor for any pullback or consolidation phase as new support levels are established. The strong trend could attract further interest, especially if broader sentiment remains positive. Keep an eye on volume and price stability to assess if another leg up is likely in the coming sessions.
CHINA A50 Buy signal couldn't have gone any better!Last time we looked at the China A50 index (CN50) was almost 2 months ago (September 06, see chart below) when we called for a buy opportunity:
As you can see, it couldn't have gone any better as the price rebounded exactly on our mark, hitting our 12100 Target in a matter of days.
Now the index is on a relief consolidation following this enormous rally that broke above the nearly 4-year Channel Down. Every time we had a similar bullish break-out, the market reached at least its 2.0 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, we expect to see 19500 by mid 2025.
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JD.COM PT63$ after breaking the long term trendlineJD.com broke the minor trend lines and is heading towards the long term trendline. This level is also enforced by prior highs/lows that acted as pívot points.
If broken, I would expect to extend the final of the third Elliot leg to the 63$ area, then back test the broken trendline, and then attack the ATH again.
Please let me know your thoughts!
Xiaomi (1810): Major Gains, Next Targets and Updated StrategyThe Hang Seng Index and its constituent stocks have been surging higher, with Xiaomi leading the charge 🚀. The setup we had on Xiaomi was quite similar to the one for Alibaba, featuring a tight stop-loss and a high risk-to-reward ratio, which, just like NYSE:BABA , worked out perfectly. Although we aimed to catch the end of wave (ii), we missed the entry by just a few HKD. Despite this, the position is now up an impressive 85% since we initially sent out the entry back in March.
We have taken our first round of profits as we haven't locked in any gains yet, and we have moved our stop-loss to the break-even point. However, we are confident that Xiaomi will not revisit this level for a long time. We took profits upon reaching a key wave 3 extension level. While we expect further gains on the lower time frame, we must also respect what the higher time frame indicates. Whether it's longing wave (iv) or wave 4, the choice depends on whether we are right about the higher or also the lower time frame. On the higher time frame, we anticipate a maximum rise to 30 HKD before we see a significant correction.
We believe there is still substantial upside potential for Xiaomi – it's only a matter of time. We'll keep monitoring both scenarios closely and act accordingly 📈.
China Stocks: What to Expect When Markets Reopen Stocks in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hong Kong took off last week and continued their climb on Monday, posting their best single-day rally in 16 years. This surge came after several announcements from Beijing aimed at boosting the country’s economy.
But now, The Shanghai Stock Exchange will be closed from Oct. 1 to Oct. 7 for China’s National Day celebrations, and Hong Kong’s market will also shut on Oct. 1. However, U.S.-listed China ETFs will still be trading, so when the Chinese exchanges reopen on Oct. 7, we could see big moves as global investors get ahead of the Chinese market.
China’s stock market is known for its wild swings, mainly because retail investors make up about two-thirds of the trading. That means we might see some significant volatility once the markets open back up.
CHINA A50 Death Cross to push it lower but buy opportunity lurksThe China A50 index (CN50) completed yesterday a 1D Death Cross following a convincing rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and that should extend the Channel Down to a new Lower Low.
Technically it appears to far to be in good symmetry with the Falling Wedge's previous Bearish Leg, that found a temporary bottom after a -14.76% decline and rebounded to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, despite the current weakness, we expect this last push to stop around 11100 - 11000 and then rebound to 12100 (0.618 Fib).
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CHINA A50 Rebound expected.The China A50 index (CN50) eventually closed below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) last time we looked into it (June 14, see chart below) and hit our 11800 downside Target:
The long-term pattern remains bearish in the form of a Falling Wedge, but right now we expect a medium-term counter-trend rebound similar to the one that followed the May 30 2023 Low and reached the 0.236 Fibonacci extension.
As a result, we turn bullish on this index, targeting 12350 (0.236 Fib and top of the Falling Wedge).
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Trade Idea: Long on Baidu (BIDU) Overview:
Baidu (BIDU), a leading Chinese tech giant, is currently sitting at multi-year lows. Despite the broader Chinese economy facing challenges, Baidu presents a compelling opportunity due to its strong correlation with the overall Chinese market. The attached chart highlights this correlation, showing BIDU's performance in tandem with the Chinese economy's trends.
Valuation Comparison:
In a market where NVIDIA’s valuation surpasses the combined worth of Germany's and General Motors', opportunities in the Chinese market appear more reasonable. Baidu, with its substantial undervaluation, offers a potential upside that is hard to ignore.
Technological Edge:
A recent study by International Data Corporation (IDC) underscores Baidu's prowess in generative artificial intelligence (GenAI). Baidu’s Wenxin Yiyan and Wenxin Yige, comparable to ChatGPT and Midjourney, respectively, outperformed in categories like question-and-answer comprehension, reasoning, creative expression, mathematics, and coding. This technological advantage positions Baidu as a leader in AI, a crucial growth sector.
Conclusion:
With Baidu trading at significant lows and its robust performance in GenAI, the company is poised for potential growth. The Chinese market, despite its current economic hurdles, offers more attractive valuations compared to the overheated US tech market. This creates a strategic entry point for long positions in BIDU.
This overview provides a snapshot of Baidu’s potential as a strategic investment. If you’re interested in a deeper analysis, drop a comment below, and I’ll prepare a more detailed breakdown.
Trading is like a game of Monopoly—there's strategy, luck, and sometimes you end up in jail! 🎲 Always consult with a financial advisor and do your own research before making any big moves.
CHINA A50 Is this 1W MA50 rebound breaking the bearish trend?On December 21 2023 (see chart below) the China A50 index (CN50) gave us the best buy entry possible on more than 1 year span:
The price increased on this Bullish Leg and a month ago reached the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the Falling Wedge. At the same time, it broke above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since December 28 2021, giving the first long-term buy signal in years.
Regardless of this signal, the index got rejected at the top of the Falling Wedge and is on a 4 week decline. However it reached this week the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) again and so far reacted positively by holding it. As long as it holds and closes the 1W candles above it, it is more likely that this will transition into a rebound, which will be the 2nd and final long-term buy signal.
In that case, we expect the index to finally break above the Falling Wedge and stage a long-term pursuit of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Our Target will be 13550 (slightly below Resistance 1).
If however the 1W MA50 breaks (closes candle below it), we will take the small loss and open a sell, targeting 11800 (the 0.5 Fibonacci level), similar to the March 14 2023 decline. The confirmation for this signal will come if the 1W MACD forms a Bearish Cross.
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Alibaba - Back to bearish (not)?Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Alibaba .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
After Alibaba broke below the major support trendline in 2021 we saw a massive correction of -75% towards the downside. Alibaba was then retesting another major level, this time a previous support area which is at $60. So far Alibaba stock is still respecting the bearish trendline, but it is just a matter of time until we will see a bullish trading opportunity on this stock.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Alibaba - Don't forget chinese stocks!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Alibaba.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Back in 2020 Alibaba stock created a textbook breakout of an ascending triangle formation which was followed by more continuation towards the upside. Then Alibaba stock topped out in 2021 and we saw a massive decline of -80% from the previous highs. At the moment Alibaba is still in a very bearish market but there is a chance that we will see a reversal in the near future.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Alibaba - Trading opportunity is finally there!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Alibaba .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Almost a decade ago Alibaba stock retested a strong support at the psychological $60 level and reversed significantly towards the upside. Just a couple of months ago Alibaba stock once again retested this support and created an anticipated reversal. If Alibaba stock actually manages to break above the current resistance trendline, we could maybe see a similar rally like we saw in 2015 and the following years.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
BABA: Set for a Bullish Reversal, Potential Gains Exceed 50%?Hi Realistic Traders, let's delve into the technical analysis of NYSE:BABA !
On the weekly chart, BABA is making some exciting moves! It's broken out of a falling wedge pattern, forming a bullish candlestick with a long wick right on the EMA 34 line. But what really caught our eye? The significant volume spike, more than double the average. Now, why does this matter? Well, it's a clear sign of increased buying interest and strong market conviction behind the price movement. And wait, there's more good news: the MACD indicator is showing a bullish divergence, hinting at a potential reversal. So, what's the forecast? We're looking at a potential upward swing to close the gap near our first target at $117.89. After that, we might see a slight dip to the yellow zone before it continues its rally towards our second target at $165.
It is essential to note that the analysis will no longer hold validity once the target/support area is reached.
Disclaimer: "Please note that this analysis is solely for educational purposes and should not be considered a recommendation to take a long or short position on Alibaba Group Holdings Ltd."
Please support the channel by engaging with the content, using the rocket button, and sharing your opinions in the comments below
CHINA A50 on the 1W MA100 after 2.5 years! Ultimate Bull test!When we looked at the China A50 index (CN50) last year (December 21 2023, see chart below), we got the best buy entry possible on more than 1 year span:
Our long-term Target at the time of 13000 is almost hit but it now time to re-evaluate our perspective as the index not only hit the top of its almost 2-year Falling Wedge but more importantly made contact with the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time in almost 2.5 years (since the week of December 28 2021).
This is the ultimate test for the Chinese market. A closing above that Resistance cluster, will turn us bullish again, targeting the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at 14250. Until that closing happens, we turn bearish on the medium-term, targeting 11850 (just above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level).
It has to be mentioned that the 1W RSI has already made a bullish break-out above its 3-year Lower Highs trend-line, potentially hinting finally towards a long-term trend change to bullish.
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Tencent Set to Release 'Dungeon and Fighter' Mobile Game in May Tencent Holdings, ( NYSE:TME ) the Chinese multinational giant, has announced the release of its highly anticipated mobile game, 'Dungeon and Fighter: Origin'. Developed by Korean company Nexon, the game is a mobile adaptation of the popular computer game 'Dungeon and Fighter', which is considered to be one of the world's most profitable computer games.
This announcement comes after seven years of development, during which the game initially received government approval for release in 2017, before having its approval revoked. However, Tencent was granted a new license for the game in February of this year.
The official release date for 'Dungeon and Fighter: Origin' has been set for May 21. The action game is expected to be a significant addition to Tencent's mobile game portfolio, given its immense popularity and profitability.
Technical Outlook
Tencent Holdings, ( NYSE:TME ) stock is up 2.29% prior the fundamentals trading above the 200-day Moving Average (MA) with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 58. The stock has consolidated in price for the 2nd time starting a new rising trend after the current consolidation faced at $11.76 pivot point.
Tencent's Rocket Ride: Heading for 1338 HKD?
For Tencent Holdings, we currently believe we are in an overarching Wave III, which should be created with a 5-wave structure upwards. This should naturally extend far beyond the Wave I level at the all-time high of 715 HKD. We anticipate a rise to at least 1338 HKD for this overarching Wave III. Wave II concluded at 188.6 HKD. Zooming in, we see that we are about to complete Waves (1) and (3) and soon enter into the Wave (3). Wave (2), as we expect, might dip slightly further, to 241 HKD. However, we are convinced that we could be in a long upward trend. Therefore, we do not want to be stopped out prematurely, as it would be quite unnecessary. A double bottom at 188 HKD cannot be ruled out. Thus, we place our entry at the 50% extension for the very subordinate Wave ((v)) and just above the 78.6% retracement level for the subordinate Wave (2). This would create what's known as a Fibonacci retracement cluster, where there should be a significant buying potential. We will see how it unfolds in the coming weeks or days. Should there be a rise above 297 HKD, we may need to reconsider our stance.