China's Large Cap: Ready to test the 10 year Highs?With the U.S. - China trade deal developments ongoing and reportedly staying on positive grounds, the stock markets are globally on the rise in 2019. This is a good time to examine how the heavy Chinese companies are performing.
FXI is the index that tracks China's stocks with the largest capitalization. On the monthly (1M) chart we see that since the 2009 crash, it has been recovering on Higher Highs and Higher Lows, effectively constructing a Channel Up on 1M (RSI = 56.535, MACD = 0.600, Highs/Lows = 0.3822). These indicators show that it recently hit a low point and is on the early stages of a new bullish leg. On the chart this is evident by the January 2019 bounce on the inner lower Higher Low trend line (indicated in dash). What is also evident are the 1M Support Zone (28.20 - 28.70) and 1M Resistance Zone (52.90 - 54.00). The 1M Resistance Zone is our immediate target although the 10 year Channel Up suggests that it may break it and peak as high as 61.00.
In our opinion it is definitely a time to start looking at China's Large Cap more favorably.
We have already warned of this upcoming bullish leg on the Shanghai Composite Index on December 2018:
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Chinesestocks
NIO Bouncing Off Hard SupportPlenty of bad news coming out on this one. Cancellation of a factory in China, reduced government funding for electronic vehicle (EV) development, and profitability going ever into the abyss.
If this thing behaves anything like TSLA, we could see a nice bounce here. But why?
The EV space is rife with optimism and hope due to the disruptive nature of its products. Much like the internet disrupted traditional brick-and-mortar retailers and telecommunications companies, electronic vehicles threaten to disrupt traditional gas-powered transportation. Looking back on the performance of Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and the like over the past two decades, and considering their role in disrupting and creating markets, it is no wonder why investors associate electronic vehicles with a potentially bright future of massive returns. Disruption creates opportunity to take or create markets.
Yet there still remains the fundamental problem of profitability. If a company cannot turn a profit, how can it hope to be successful? Looking into the past, Amazon itself was unprofitable for the first 14 years that it was listed on the stock exchange, yet it was able to survive and thrive on the back of debt financing, steadily increasing its revenue and expanding its supply of collateral (equity). Regardless of the negative fundamental picture for new and disruptive companies, and the risk it poses on their survival, investors often look at them as massive opportunities.
For a stock like this, throw fundamentals out the window - this is the realm of human psychology. Hope, fear and greed will drive the price into insane extremes, and timed correctly, can be quite profitable. The only fundamental here is this: can it continue to acquire debt?
With all of that said, there is a setup to go long here. Hard support sits around 5.5 with plenty of upside on hopes and dreams beyond.
Shanghai Index: Buy the pull back.The Shanghai Composite Index has seen a considerable rise since the start of the year, which we predicted in December ( ). The parabolic rise on 1D has reached past the overbought zone (RSI hitting 80.000) and as it got close to the 0.500 Fibonacci retracement level (3,015), we should start see it consolidating. The strongest candidate for a pull back however is the 0.618 level (3,150). We are willing to buy any such pull back and target the 0.786 level at 3,340.
See below how we predicted this +22% rise in December:
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Is this the right time to start buying Chinese stocks?Since the all time highs in 2007 the Shanghai Composite has not recovered those levels failing on successive Lower Highs. This has created a Triangle pattern on the Monthly chart with Higher Lows. We can't be sure which trend line has to be followed to mark the new Higher Low as both have valid grounds. In any case, the index is approaching its long term technical low, which was either on October's 2,449.20 or will be near 2,100. 2,500 is currently the MA200 period on the monthly chart, so there are more chances to see the recovery starting now. Our early estimates place the long target at 4,380.
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MINSHENG HOLDINGS - (SZSE:000416) - D1* Looking bearish on D1.
* Conditions are ready for the movement which i am expecting for.
China Molybdenum Co looks like a great buyCMCLF looks substantially bullish both short term and longterm. We are also currently trading really good entry levels.
Below is the longterm picture. If we stick to this picture, trading this will provide great opportunities to scale the position size up as the play builds.