Chipotle Mexican Grill beats by $0.33, beats on revenueRevenue increased 28.1% to $1.07 billion
Comparable restaurant sales increased 17.8% (including 0.6% from recognized revenue previously deferred related to Chiptopia)
Restaurant level operating margin increased to 17.7% from 6.8%
Net income was $46.1 million, improved from a net loss of $26.4 million
Diluted earnings per share was $1.60, improved from a diluted net loss per share of $0.88
Opened 57 new restaurants
Chipotle
Chipotle rejected at 440 level. Will it break to the downside?Technically speaking
Last week the stock was rejected again at the 440 level. The 4th time since July. The 440 level seems to be pretty important.
The bottom of the tight range since say June is 385ish. A break below that level and the next demand I see on this monthly chart is say 280-240ish. That is a 30%+ slide, seems steep, but who knows.
Fundamentals
Chipotles troubles have been well documented. Just google Chipotle, e-coli and you should be caught up. The company made news in September when Bill Ackman of Pershing Square acquired a 5% stake. Link: money.cnn.com
As I always say, I lean technical, but hey, fundamentals do matter, more so vs expectations, in my opinion. The stock has essentially been cut in half since 2015, so the R/R would seem to favor the long side. Is this a mis-priced bet? Who knows, but that is why we traders take risk. How much are you willing to risk to find out?
As noted on the chart, earnings come out on the 25th, so proceed with caution.
TARGET DA TARGETHoliday sales this November for Thanks giving would suck for sure. And also same for X-mas and New Year for Target.
TGT TARGET FROM 2015 July high $85 it is slowly trickling down. If you draw a line from that high to 2016 march high you will get a better clear picture. It may not get bankrupt but stock will be in a good position to buy if it breaks 2 support level either @ $52 or $47 range. A good target to buy would be sub $10
CMG Technical Base With Strong Follow-Up On FridayWe stick to our view, expressed on Thursday, when CMG cleared a small base and the 50day moving average at $405. I see next bigger resistance at $443, where the stock could clear an even bigger base. We are observing long-term reversal action with potentially more upside. Stay tuned!
CMG: Potential trend reversalCMG has been accumulated in this zone for an extended period of time, and currently taking off from the uptrend mode.
We're long with my signals group from the 405 mark. The stock had very negative sentiment due to a case of food poisoning, but currently, there is no reason for it not to rally from here, to catch up to the likes of JACK, for instance.
After earnings come out, I'll monitor the formation of a new 'key earnings support' level, and decide wether to add to longs, or simply invalidate the setup and exit if we break down forcefully under 400.
Our current stop loss is wide, to accomodate for volatility, and because this is a potential longer term position.
I'll update the publication as we move forward.
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BUY CMG For $540/$600CMG has sold quite significantly based on technicals and all of the past news of Ecoli outbreaks. The damage has been done and we have now based. We have held a major trendline, key area of $400, with a weekly MACD crossover, and then finally we have completed a C wave at the .886 fib level hinting to a future gartley or bat pattern more than likely. Buying now at $446 with a stop at $431 would offer more than 6:1 risk/reward targeting $540 where we have major resistance. The 2nd target will be the $600 area.
CMG - Possible BullCMG pierced its first major resistance at 480 on 2/11, and has trended slightly up and sideways since then. Right now the stock appears to be finishing its second attempt to pass through a second major retracement and resistance level at approx. 530.
Based on the RSI, the low volume on its last two positive gains, the recent failure to close above 530, and the fact that the stock needed three attempts to pierce resistance last time, I think its slightly more likely that the stock will stay in a channel between 500 and 530 before making one more successful push above resistance. Should the entire stock market surge or plummet unexpectedly on monday 3/7, I would expect cmg to follow suit over a few days either breaking above 530 or pushing down to its recent support at 500 or even 480.
The MACD may be in the beginning stages of tightening (this is probably a premature call to make, but what the heck) - suggesting a large jump one way or the other is in the offing.
When chipotle does sustain a break above 530, its got virtually zero resistance until around 575 - which presents an opportunity for those who are bearish in the longer term to try to pull in some profits (if it breaks within the next 1-3 weeks) prior to major economic news possibly shifting the market downward...
Hesitantly long on this stock right now- though I would be waiting for better signals in the MACD histogram and a break one way or the other on strong volume
CMG Cup&Handle pattern, potential gap coveringChipotle Mexican Grill formed bearish pattern called Cup&Handle with lower high (reversal candle) on 6th of October. Important level of support was at $649 and was broken yesterday with conviction. Combine it with $SPX break down of 200 EMA first time since long time and that is how you get in on the right side.
Risk Management: ENTRY was at $649 break. After 3 outside down days it feels a bit oversold. Maybe, wait for a bounce to fill with better price. STOP above $660 makes sence if sellers want to keep pressure and momentum. Then we have $682 reversal point. TARGET: as there is no visible support below previous support I will put my target at $609 which was resistance before gap up on earnings.