Confessions from the Desk: Nvidia is Up, I Am NotIt’s Friday, the sun is shining, and Nvidia is up. Unfortunately, I am not.
Nvidia sits smugly at $137.19, while my $140 call is officially DOA—dead on arrival, with no chance of resuscitation. I’d like to say I’m surprised, but at this point, it feels like the market is just personally messing with me.
To add insult to injury, my carefully curated basket of stocks has been bouncing around like a drunk day trader on margin. One minute, I think I’m up; the next, I’m refreshing my portfolio like a gambler waiting for a miracle. Spoiler alert: the miracle never comes.
Meanwhile, Nvidia has been making big boy moves—cutting its stake in Arm Holdings, taking a bite out of China’s WeRide, and ghosting Serve Robotics and SoundHound AI like a bad Tinder date. The result? Stocks are moving, headlines are flashing, and somewhere in a penthouse office, a hedge fund manager is smirking at my pain.
Let’s break it down:
Nvidia dumps 44% of Arm Holdings – Apparently, even they have commitment issues.
Exited Serve Robotics & SoundHound AI – Serve was rolling along nicely until, well... it wasn’t. SoundHound AI got the boot, too, and its shares fell 25%. Ouch.
Pumped 1.7 million shares into WeRide – WeRide stock shot up 76%. That’s cool, but guess who doesn’t own WeRide? This guy.
Also bet on AI cloud firm Nebius – Stock rose 8%. Lovely. Again, not in my portfolio.
Now, as Nvidia makes its AI master moves, I sit here staring at my screen, watching Serve Robotics—one of my few February winners—go completely sideways. That’s right, folks. Nvidia’s got a plan, but my portfolio? It’s just vibing.
But hey, it’s Friday, the sun is out, and at least I don’t own SoundHound AI. Small wins, right?
Happy Friday
Chips
2000 $CSCO vs 2025 $NVDA, is the similar crash possible?🚨 Could Nvidia be the next Cisco? 🚨
In 2000, Cisco dominated networking with its own chips. But competitors used cheaper, nearly as effective chips, and the stock dropped from $82 to $8 in just 2 years. Is the same fate possible for Nvidia?
Cisco invested heavily in its IOS CLI and aggressively defended it.
Nvidia did the same with CUDA, taking action against anyone trying to make alternatives.
But now, competition is heating up.
DeepSeek and other companies could lead those who over-invested in Nvidia chips on borrowed money to offload them, flooding the second-hand market with GPUs.
Meanwhile, the Magnificent 7 might slow down orders since they already have tons of Nvidia chips stockpiled.
Just like Cisco switches were 80% off in 2001, could we see a similar scenario with Nvidia?
And let’s talk about the $2000 RTX 5090 — would you buy one today?
Nvidia has committed huge resources to TSMC for chip production. They could be facing an overstock issue, and slashing prices could hurt profit margins. 😬
We will soon know the direction it will go, next few quarters will show us all.
Nvidia at $220 in 2025 ?Key Drivers for NVIDIA's Growth:
Surging AI Demand: NVIDIA's GPUs are integral to training sophisticated AI models. The company's latest Blackwell GPUs are sold out for the next 12 months due to unprecedented demand from major tech companies, underscoring NVIDIA's pivotal role in AI advancements.
Data Center Expansion: NVIDIA's data center revenue has experienced remarkable growth, with a 409% increase driven by the escalating need for AI chips. This trend highlights the company's dominance in the data center GPU market.
Strategic Collaborations: NVIDIA's involvement in Project Stargate, a significant U.S. AI infrastructure initiative led by SoftBank and OpenAI, is expected to drive future revenue and alleviate concerns about peak compute demand, contributing to NVIDIA's long-term growth.
Analyst Confidence: The consensus among Wall Street analysts is a "Strong Buy" rating for NVIDIA, with an average 12-month price target of $176.86, indicating a 20.3% upside from the current price.
Bullish Price Target:
Considering these factors, a bullish price target for NVIDIA over the next 12 months could easily be $220. This projection aligns with the high forecast among analysts and reflects confidence in NVIDIA's sustained growth trajectory.
Conclusion:
NVIDIA's strategic positioning in the AI sector, robust data center growth, and strong market sentiment make it a promising investment for those seeking exposure to the burgeoning AI industry.
Please note that this is just my view and is not financial advice.
easy play on ASMLI’ve been closely monitoring the monthly chart of ASML Holding (Euronext) and have identified a compelling setup that aligns with my long-term strategy. Previously, I shared an idea on TradingView with an ambitious $1200 price target, based on the stock’s strong long-term uptrend and solid fundamentals. However, upon further analysis, I’ve identified an internal trendline, which provides additional clarity and reinforces my bullish outlook. Interestingly, a similar internal trendline has been observed in other stocks like Super Micro Computer, further validating this structure.
Technical Analysis:
Primary Uptrend:
ASML is in a well-established long-term uptrend, confirmed by the primary ascending trendline connecting historical lows since 2012. This line showcases the structural strength of the stock and consistent investor confidence.
Internal Trendline Confirmation:
The recently identified internal trendline connects intermediate lows formed during price retracements, indicating a temporary slowdown in growth while maintaining an overall bullish structure.
This internal trendline has previously acted as dynamic support, suggesting it may serve as a critical reference point for future price action.
Key Price Levels:
The current price (631.5 EUR) sits near a confluence zone between horizontal support and the internal trendline. This presents a strong entry point for a long position with an attractive risk/reward ratio.
Significant support has been identified around the 600 EUR level, reinforcing my confidence in a potential price rebound.
Long-Term Price Target:
My long-term price target remains at $1200, which I believe is achievable as the stock continues to respect its bullish trend. This target aligns with ASML’s historical growth trajectory and the robust potential of the tech sector.
Entry Timing:
The recent bounce off the internal trendline and the +1.66% daily gain signal positive accumulation and increased buying interest. I plan to go long now, taking advantage of the dynamic support, with a stop loss set just below 590 EUR to manage risk effectively.
ASML Holding offers a compelling investment opportunity, supported by a solid technical structure and clear bullish potential. The internal trendline, combined with horizontal support and the broader long-term uptrend, strengthens my confidence in entering a long position. With a $1200 target and a well-defined risk management plan, I believe this is the right time to position for the next leg up in this stock.
NVDA Stock Surge: A Technical Analysis PerspectiveBased on Elliott Wave (EW) 2.0 analysis and the Fibonacci retracement tool, NVDA has shown a significant bounce recently, indicating potential future gains.
Elliott Wave 2.0 and Fibonacci Insights
Using the advanced EW 2.0 theory, we have observed a retracement for wave 3, with NVDA bouncing impressively from the $90 mark. The Fibonacci retracement tool, which complements EW analysis, highlighted this key support level. This confluence of technical indicators suggests a robust bullish trend.
Target Price and Timeline
Based on this analysis, NVDA is projected to reach at least $140. This anticipated move aligns with the upcoming U.S. presidential election, providing a potential catalyst for continued momentum in the market.
Investors should consider these technical insights and market conditions when evaluating NVDA's potential. As always, it's important to conduct thorough research and consult with your financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NVDIA Don't miss this opportunity. Can even reach $240.NVDIA (NVDA) gave us the most solid buy entry back on our August 08 signal (see chart below), following a -35% decline:
Such declines are standard technical buy opportunities especially when taken place at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 2-year Channel Up (since October 2022). As you can see, the stock made new All Time Highs (ATH) and as it remains below the middle of the Channel, the upwards potential is significant.
As long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supports, we remain bullish on our original long-term Target ($190.00) but now we feel confident to target by the start of 2025 the upper layer of the pattern, setting Target 2 at $240.00 (Fibonacci extension 3.0).
Note also that, as mentioned on our previous analysis, the current Bullish Leg continues to look very similar to the one that bottomed on October 2022. This is also evident on their 1D RSI fractals.
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Bearish Reversal in VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH)The NASDAQ:SMH ETF shows a significant price decline, with a recent drop of 5.40%, as highlighted by the red bar. This price action suggests a bearish reversal after hitting a high of 283.07. The current support level is around 200.49, marking an 18.88% drop from the recent high. Additionally, the Darvas Box indicates a range between 247.16 and 283.07, suggesting potential consolidation in this area before the next directional move. The downward trend aligns with overall market corrections in the semiconductor sector, which could present a short opportunity if price breaks below key support levels. Traders should keep an eye on macroeconomic factors influencing this sector, as well as earnings reports that might impact semiconductor stocks. NASDAQ:ASML
SMCI This is honestly the last stand.Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) suffered yet another brutal sell-off following the announcement of a delay in filing its 10-K annual report. This may prove to be a catastrophic one as technically not only did it fail exactly on its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but also saw the stock test the bottom of its multi-year parabolic support, the Higher Lows Zone since the week of July 05 2022.
This was basically the last time the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) got tested with the current week coming the closest since then. The 1W MA100 last broke during the unexpected COVID flash crash in March 2020, so technically it is the stock's longest Support. If it fails to hold and SMCI closes a 1W candle below it, the long-term parabolic growth pattern is invalidated and we will risk testing the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) at a price potentially around $250.00.
If on the other hand the 1W MA100 holds (and we will need the news sentiment to drastically reverse in order to achieve that, something that currently can't be seen on the horizon), then we can see another +400% long-term rally, in which case we estimate a Target around $2000, the stock's next critical psychological growth level.
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Is Intel's New Process Node a Game-Changer?Intel's latest reveal, the Intel 3 process node, promises to revolutionize the tech landscape with substantial performance and efficiency gains. But could this be the strategic breakthrough Intel needs to outmaneuver its competition?
Enhanced Performance and Density for Leading-Edge Computing
Intel's commitment to process technology leadership leaps forward with the Intel 3 process node, boasting an impressive 18% performance improvement and a 10% density increase over the previous generation. Tailored to meet diverse customer needs, Intel 3 offers four distinct variants, each optimized for specific applications, from high-performance computing to AI.
First Leading-Edge Foundry Node Drives Ecosystem Growth
Intel 3 marks a pivotal shift in Intel's strategy, as its first leading-edge process technology is made available to external customers through Foundry services. This move positions Intel as a key player in the foundry market, potentially reshaping the competitive landscape.
Manufacturing Readiness and High-Volume Production
Achieving manufacturing readiness in late 2023, the Intel 3 node has successfully transitioned to high-volume production, powering the Intel Xeon 6 processor family. This real-world application demonstrates its capability in server-grade computing solutions, solidifying Intel's technological prowess.
A Stepping Stone to the Future of Computing
As the final evolution of Intel's FinFET technology, the Intel 3 node provides a robust foundation for future advancements, paving the way for the forthcoming RibbonFET technology and the Angstrom era with Intel 20A and 18A process nodes.
Curious to know more about how Intel's latest innovation could impact the future of computing? Dive into the full analysis and uncover the potential ripple effects on the semiconductor industry.
AMD Wendy's SetupStock has dropped almost 40% from it's ATH into a pennant into earnings. Short sellers would be insane not to cover on any good news or if sentiment just stops getting worse. Tech as a whole looks due for a bounce, AMD was a bottom indicator in 2023, could do it again in 2024.
Upside price targets are 155, if through then 200
Stop loss = breakdown of the pennant
NVIDIA (NVDA) | Over a Long Time, Technically An Opportunity!Hi,
It's a bit hard to get in technically if the stocks are constantly making new higher highs without any certain pullbacks and NVIDIA was one of them.
Now we have seen some red weeks and we have an opportunity where some criteria are matching with each other around $100.
If you are still interested then it might be your chance.
Good luck,
Vaido
Long way to go from here
Current situation: SKILLING:US100 : NASDAQ:SMCI is currently at support level.
Potential scenario: If tomorrow's earnings do not meet expectations, the stock could drop to around $450 in a heartbeat.
Why?
1. The movement that started on 4.03.2024 appears to be an ABC correction, and the stock is currently in wave C of that correction.
2. In an ABC correction, the most common Fibonacci level for wave C is when
Wave C = Wave A = 1 = $446
3. Other indicators, such as MACD, are also indicating a downward trend as expected.
The WavesInvesting indicator is also pointing to the same level as the Fibonacci ratio for its lower channel line.
However, if the earnings turn out to be very good, we may see support at the current level.
Simple question for you: support or down the water slide we go?
AMD DON'T MISS OUT ON THE MICROCHIP PARTY Check AMD, I'm not entirely sure yet, but something about this chart is screaming bullish again.
Last chart update was pretty much short over 171 and we pretty much stuck to the chart.
Now that things are settling, the next move is starting to appear.
There is potential we see the move from 169.99 to 207.
If we cap out near 207 or 209 and drop to around 192, it can take the price up to the 250 target, but i wouldn't count on that as a for sure bet.
I still like the chances of 207 before we see the next major downside.
This is pretty much the exact same chart I posted last time but with a few lines removed and we're on a smaller time frame.
Those will be linked.
Good luck!!
ARM - Momentum trade SMCI set some wild fire across all Semi-names. There will many sympathy plays across this sector this week, IMO.
I caught the ARM Short squeeze last week from 120 to 160. and I got few more commons when it dipped.
Below is the trade plan for commons, If you are trading options, have a tight stop loss.
Long between 137-145
Stop Loss - 130
Target #1 154
Target #2 172
Target #3 186, after a pullback.