All the relevant levels on TSMTSM is the most significant and more relevant chip manufacturer in the world. Probably you have one of these chips in the computer you are using right now or maybe in your car. With all that said, let's take a look at the most important levels on the current chart.
* Yesterday (13/01/2021), TSM made a new all-time high (ATH) after 307 days of corrections inside a flag pattern and a decline of 24.33%
* Flag patterns are continuation structures; this means that after the breakouts, we tend to observe new impulsive movements in the same direction as the previous one.
What we will do now is explain possible bullish and bearish resolutions based on the levels we have:
BULLISH SCENARIO: The price has 3 levels we can use to consider closing positions: First fibo extension, cloned channel, second fibo extension (useful for swing and position traders). Assuming the price replicates the previous impulse that started in April 2020 and finished in February 2021, we should expect a movement of 330 days towards 204 (where the 2nd fibo extension and the cloned channel converge). Remember that when you are looking for big and extended movements you need to be open to corrections during your trade or investment (for example, on key levels)
BEARISH SCENARIO: The price is not able to surpass the resistance zone created by the previous ATH, and from here we observe a bearish movement towards the next target we have, "The ascending trendline) at around 119
Thanks for reading! feel free to add your ideas on the comments ;) Have a great weekend.
Chips
$AAPL Bearish FOMC Setup$AAPL follows $SPY almost to a tee with wicks and candles. The orange line is $SPY overlayed on top of the AAPL chart. $AAPL is in a descending channel and a break under the 174.43 level with a $SPY confirmation has a level from 174.43 to 172.31. Puts under this level have potential to fall all the way to the 170.34 level.
BABA 2022 LongT1 is ~123 first level, but has potential to reach T2 around 131 - 132 before the end of January.
The ADRs are more about 'what is happening with China regulation' more than anything else. HOWEVER, BABA has one of the best abilities long-term in my opinion. The earnings have been great and their ability to evolve will surely happen -- just as it has with Amazon (AMZN). The big difference is BABA will have the capability to change the landscape by becoming competitive with Apple (AAPL) through chip manufacturing and potentially acquiring companies that compliment companies here in the U.S., who are dependent on specific technologies.
looking for entry points on $AMDAMD still has a long runway until INTC starts to crank out chips from the 2 fabs in Arizona. Looks like there is a little bit more give in AMD but it could result in better entry points.
RSI looks like it could fall more before it truly becomes oversold on the daily.
MACD curling up for a potential cross.
Long NVDA HereBeautiful consolidation is occurring here with $NVDA after the Fed clarified tapering decisions today.
Nice bounce off the 0.618 Fib level with RSI curling back up as well after hitting lows on the daily timeframe. It appears to be a great entry if NVDA can clear the 0.786 Fib level next.
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice!
My 5cents about AMD short term tradingIt seems like AMD has break the tunnel and continue going upwards, although tapering and interest rate hike kicking in, I believe it will still have momentum to continue moving up and beyond. however, for a shorter term trading strategy, I just use the tunnel height as a target.
AMD Short Setup - 1st Ever Mean ReversionI look at this stock over its lifetime and cannot, for the life of me, find a single mean reversion.
I thought to myself, "hmm, maybe I'm missing something?"
I took the log scaling off and immediately thought otherwise.
Short and wouldn't wait too long.
-De-visivePigShort
NASDAQ:AMD
CURRENCYCOM:US100
TVC:NDX
TVC:IXIC
CME_MINI:NQ1!
INTC - Provides Intel on the State of Affairs in MANUAfter a run ahead of EPS, the 46.07 ended up another Ghost in the ALGO Machine.
EPS for Intel, another Disasater after FAB MANU ASML's ugliness, Lucky for ASML
the Dippers were all too anxious to Bid it back up erasing 1/2 its losses from
805.
Earnings Season has added more complexity to the Mix.
NQ made a run for the top of the Range @ 15513/17 - only to unload to its
Prior close by ZERO.
It gave back all the gains on INTC... all of them.
These are the challenges to EPS, volatile and setting up for the unseemly news
from Chips. Today's Intel Dip buyers were dunked to the 52.50 Level on the DOM,
the scene of prior High Crimes and Felonies.
As Semi's continue to report, they will continue to reveal Q3 was indeed a disaster,
lots of Fudge, no Walnuts.
Today's EPS was TECH heavy, tomorrow is Freaky Friday - the most overused Day
of the Week to Crush the VX Complex.
With the 400 Ticks of CF ahead, it will, no doubt be challenging.
Trade Safe, it is very dangerous at present.
Timeframes are in Conflict, complete conflict. Weeks end will begin to resolve this
when we see where the Weekly Candle closes. Last Week's close = 15134.50.
AMD flag formationThe US markets have taken a beating over the last few weeks but as sellers start to reside we could see some short term recoveries across the market on some strong players.
Im watching AMD closely with this flag formation, not ruling out a drop back further yet before a bounce but the market structure is set for a continuation
Fib levels from the last bullish rally are being respected so targeting the 1.272 extension of around 130+ over coming months
$AMD | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 9/27AMD has been quite frustrating throughout this wave 4 pullback. Possible we see a breakout of this extended bullish falling wedge to play upside in the next 1-2 weeks. Looking to retest the $114 level, above that we get a larger breakout to ATHs.
However if we reject the falling wedge resistance here, possible we see waves D and E to complete an ABCDE corrective wave, rather than the proposed ABC above.
Will go cautiously long over $107.
Undervalued INTEL (Long)Intel has underperformed for a while now and it's price reflects that. However, the chip industry is on fire atm and INTEL still remains the largest Chip producer in the world.
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Price action is currently stuck in a descending wedge (Bullish) with a bearish rejection at the recent resistance. Watch carefully to what happens at the wedge support around 51.70 (1). With strong support we may see it test that wedge resistance again and ideally break through to the levels indicated at 2, 3 and 4.
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Negative scenario: Wedge support is broken and we head to LONG term (Sep, 2018) support around 45-46 level.
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Not financial advice - Do you own DD.
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Let me know your thoughts and GL!
NVDA In Danger??Today I contemplated closing 75% of my long in NVDA as it is well in profit and I have much leeway right now to walk away and let a small amount ride. The reason for this is because NVDA has broken both a key upward sloping trendline as well as the .786 Fibonacci level on the daily and 4 hour time frames.
This does not have to be the end of the road for NVDA but it is not a bullish sign either to say the least.
It does appear, however, that Nvidia could be in for some short to midterm consolidation before regaining the needed momentum to break back above all time highs.
A few things that are good from a bulllish perspective is that a week ago we broke out of downward sloping resistance and managed to break and close fully above the .786 Fibonacci level not to mention we set higher highs in the process of doing that.
For this reason I am remaining in my long.. but there is a further issue. The issue is that we are in the process of putting in a macro lower high and this could be very bearish for the asset if it does not find bids this week and at the very least break back above $203. If not, a retest of the $198 price level could be very likely.
This entire range from $198 all the way down to $194 could be a great re-entry area for a long as there is much bullish confluence in this region which should provide for ample support.
It is this reason that I am remaining in my long. I will not be looking to add to my position should the price come down to the aforementioned price levels.. I will, however, remain patient by waiting and seeing if any bids come in at the green zone I have showing on the chart. If this green zone does not hold, I will be 75% out of the trade should we break and close a daily candle below the 0.5 fib level at $194.
Tomorrow's open and close on the daily chart could be telling. Keep in mind though, that the week has just started and NVDA has plenty of time to make up for the major, yet small ground it has given up to start the trading week.
AMD Buy LevelsMid July I posted a bullish idea on AMD and how the $93.50 level approximately was the level we wanted to watch as being key to AMD retesting and breaking previous all time highs.
Well AMD broke and found support at the $93.50 price level and upon doing so the price sky rocketed from that exact point and found itself on every news network this week that covers equities.
A pullback as we can see was very likely as a rejection at exactly the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level.. a very common rejection/reversal area after an asset smashes through all time highs and runs up in price. And now we see it struggling and getting rejected at the classic .786 fib level as well, typically the final blow of a parabolic runup in price.
NVDA is an asset that just weeks ago did the same thing and presented what has been a wonderful trade so far for those who have followed my idea on it by buying the pullback.
We are still in that NVDA trade currently and the same things I spotted in NVDA long before its drop and subsequent pump are some of the same things I am now spotting in AMD.
Looking both left and right, if you observe the color coded horizontal Fibonacci levels, we see confluence with a few overlapping lines. This is not coincidence and is in reality a very good sign as it adds credit to the idea that other smart traders are observing and trading these same horizontal levels of Fibonacci support.
I will be watching this closely in the coming days for a continued pullback which could bring it down to the $84 price level approximately.
Anyone who knows my ideas know that I wait patiently for a break of the .236 fib level on pullbacks, so I can then buy the breakouts of the .236 on the rebound back up. Which in this case means the price I will be sizing up a trade for will be $92 per share on AMD. This would be a nice 25% discount in price from its all time high set just a few days ago.
Also, there will be small trade opportunities at shallow fibonacci retracement levels for light positions but the real opportunities for an entry and low-risk trade will come at the lower fib levels as always.
Lastly, as I always point out, AMD does not HAVE to fall or go to these exact projected price levels. It is well within AMD's realm of possibilities to run higher in price.
However, given the runup that AMD has seen, and the strong rejection at a key area it is currently getting.. it is a high probability that the AMD dip has arrived and it is my belief that it will give patient traders a beautiful entry for another awesome trade here in the coming days and weeks.
Buy Levels
$122.41
$113
$106.12
$101.55
$97.17
$92.01
$84.24
NVDA [Update]So far on NVDA we are still up nicely on our original idea and as we predicted NVDA is now putting all of our fib levels to the litmus test as it finds itself right in the middle zone of the entire fib retracement.
I expected the .383 to be properly tested before liftoff and so far it is holding up.
If it can continue to hold, NVDA will find itself breaking out once more as a bullish falling wedge is now being painted on the 4 hour timeframe.
One could debate if this is valid or not due to the breakdown out of its lower trendline, and that is fine. Because what we are most interested in is the upper trendline of the falling wedge as it appears to be serving as resistance on the price.
This is not something to ignore as supply lines like this can often be a warning of an impending bearish downtrend if price continues to fail when touching it.
So for this reason I am moving my stop losses up to around $189.79. The reason for this is because of not only the bearish trendline over our head, but because a breaking to the downside of the .382 fib level with a confirming candle on the 4 hour could mean a retest of much deeper levels at or around the bottom of the falling wedge or our .236 fibonacci level. So closing my position in profit and buying right back in at a discount is what I will be looking for in the near future.
In the meantime, however, I am still in my long but I am monitoring closely. NVDA will need to get moving and break the red trendline but ultimately put in a higher high in price by breaking the .618 fibonacci level over our head but that discussion will be kept reserve for a future post or update.