Long NVDA HereBeautiful consolidation is occurring here with $NVDA after the Fed clarified tapering decisions today.
Nice bounce off the 0.618 Fib level with RSI curling back up as well after hitting lows on the daily timeframe. It appears to be a great entry if NVDA can clear the 0.786 Fib level next.
Just my personal opinion, not investment advice!
Chips
My 5cents about AMD short term tradingIt seems like AMD has break the tunnel and continue going upwards, although tapering and interest rate hike kicking in, I believe it will still have momentum to continue moving up and beyond. however, for a shorter term trading strategy, I just use the tunnel height as a target.
AMD Short Setup - 1st Ever Mean ReversionI look at this stock over its lifetime and cannot, for the life of me, find a single mean reversion.
I thought to myself, "hmm, maybe I'm missing something?"
I took the log scaling off and immediately thought otherwise.
Short and wouldn't wait too long.
-De-visivePigShort
NASDAQ:AMD
CURRENCYCOM:US100
TVC:NDX
TVC:IXIC
CME_MINI:NQ1!
INTC - Provides Intel on the State of Affairs in MANUAfter a run ahead of EPS, the 46.07 ended up another Ghost in the ALGO Machine.
EPS for Intel, another Disasater after FAB MANU ASML's ugliness, Lucky for ASML
the Dippers were all too anxious to Bid it back up erasing 1/2 its losses from
805.
Earnings Season has added more complexity to the Mix.
NQ made a run for the top of the Range @ 15513/17 - only to unload to its
Prior close by ZERO.
It gave back all the gains on INTC... all of them.
These are the challenges to EPS, volatile and setting up for the unseemly news
from Chips. Today's Intel Dip buyers were dunked to the 52.50 Level on the DOM,
the scene of prior High Crimes and Felonies.
As Semi's continue to report, they will continue to reveal Q3 was indeed a disaster,
lots of Fudge, no Walnuts.
Today's EPS was TECH heavy, tomorrow is Freaky Friday - the most overused Day
of the Week to Crush the VX Complex.
With the 400 Ticks of CF ahead, it will, no doubt be challenging.
Trade Safe, it is very dangerous at present.
Timeframes are in Conflict, complete conflict. Weeks end will begin to resolve this
when we see where the Weekly Candle closes. Last Week's close = 15134.50.
AMD flag formationThe US markets have taken a beating over the last few weeks but as sellers start to reside we could see some short term recoveries across the market on some strong players.
Im watching AMD closely with this flag formation, not ruling out a drop back further yet before a bounce but the market structure is set for a continuation
Fib levels from the last bullish rally are being respected so targeting the 1.272 extension of around 130+ over coming months
$AMD | WEEKLY WATCHLIST 9/27AMD has been quite frustrating throughout this wave 4 pullback. Possible we see a breakout of this extended bullish falling wedge to play upside in the next 1-2 weeks. Looking to retest the $114 level, above that we get a larger breakout to ATHs.
However if we reject the falling wedge resistance here, possible we see waves D and E to complete an ABCDE corrective wave, rather than the proposed ABC above.
Will go cautiously long over $107.
Undervalued INTEL (Long)Intel has underperformed for a while now and it's price reflects that. However, the chip industry is on fire atm and INTEL still remains the largest Chip producer in the world.
----------
Price action is currently stuck in a descending wedge (Bullish) with a bearish rejection at the recent resistance. Watch carefully to what happens at the wedge support around 51.70 (1). With strong support we may see it test that wedge resistance again and ideally break through to the levels indicated at 2, 3 and 4.
-----------
Negative scenario: Wedge support is broken and we head to LONG term (Sep, 2018) support around 45-46 level.
----------
Not financial advice - Do you own DD.
---------
Let me know your thoughts and GL!
NVDA In Danger??Today I contemplated closing 75% of my long in NVDA as it is well in profit and I have much leeway right now to walk away and let a small amount ride. The reason for this is because NVDA has broken both a key upward sloping trendline as well as the .786 Fibonacci level on the daily and 4 hour time frames.
This does not have to be the end of the road for NVDA but it is not a bullish sign either to say the least.
It does appear, however, that Nvidia could be in for some short to midterm consolidation before regaining the needed momentum to break back above all time highs.
A few things that are good from a bulllish perspective is that a week ago we broke out of downward sloping resistance and managed to break and close fully above the .786 Fibonacci level not to mention we set higher highs in the process of doing that.
For this reason I am remaining in my long.. but there is a further issue. The issue is that we are in the process of putting in a macro lower high and this could be very bearish for the asset if it does not find bids this week and at the very least break back above $203. If not, a retest of the $198 price level could be very likely.
This entire range from $198 all the way down to $194 could be a great re-entry area for a long as there is much bullish confluence in this region which should provide for ample support.
It is this reason that I am remaining in my long. I will not be looking to add to my position should the price come down to the aforementioned price levels.. I will, however, remain patient by waiting and seeing if any bids come in at the green zone I have showing on the chart. If this green zone does not hold, I will be 75% out of the trade should we break and close a daily candle below the 0.5 fib level at $194.
Tomorrow's open and close on the daily chart could be telling. Keep in mind though, that the week has just started and NVDA has plenty of time to make up for the major, yet small ground it has given up to start the trading week.
AMD Buy LevelsMid July I posted a bullish idea on AMD and how the $93.50 level approximately was the level we wanted to watch as being key to AMD retesting and breaking previous all time highs.
Well AMD broke and found support at the $93.50 price level and upon doing so the price sky rocketed from that exact point and found itself on every news network this week that covers equities.
A pullback as we can see was very likely as a rejection at exactly the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level.. a very common rejection/reversal area after an asset smashes through all time highs and runs up in price. And now we see it struggling and getting rejected at the classic .786 fib level as well, typically the final blow of a parabolic runup in price.
NVDA is an asset that just weeks ago did the same thing and presented what has been a wonderful trade so far for those who have followed my idea on it by buying the pullback.
We are still in that NVDA trade currently and the same things I spotted in NVDA long before its drop and subsequent pump are some of the same things I am now spotting in AMD.
Looking both left and right, if you observe the color coded horizontal Fibonacci levels, we see confluence with a few overlapping lines. This is not coincidence and is in reality a very good sign as it adds credit to the idea that other smart traders are observing and trading these same horizontal levels of Fibonacci support.
I will be watching this closely in the coming days for a continued pullback which could bring it down to the $84 price level approximately.
Anyone who knows my ideas know that I wait patiently for a break of the .236 fib level on pullbacks, so I can then buy the breakouts of the .236 on the rebound back up. Which in this case means the price I will be sizing up a trade for will be $92 per share on AMD. This would be a nice 25% discount in price from its all time high set just a few days ago.
Also, there will be small trade opportunities at shallow fibonacci retracement levels for light positions but the real opportunities for an entry and low-risk trade will come at the lower fib levels as always.
Lastly, as I always point out, AMD does not HAVE to fall or go to these exact projected price levels. It is well within AMD's realm of possibilities to run higher in price.
However, given the runup that AMD has seen, and the strong rejection at a key area it is currently getting.. it is a high probability that the AMD dip has arrived and it is my belief that it will give patient traders a beautiful entry for another awesome trade here in the coming days and weeks.
Buy Levels
$122.41
$113
$106.12
$101.55
$97.17
$92.01
$84.24
NVDA [Update]So far on NVDA we are still up nicely on our original idea and as we predicted NVDA is now putting all of our fib levels to the litmus test as it finds itself right in the middle zone of the entire fib retracement.
I expected the .383 to be properly tested before liftoff and so far it is holding up.
If it can continue to hold, NVDA will find itself breaking out once more as a bullish falling wedge is now being painted on the 4 hour timeframe.
One could debate if this is valid or not due to the breakdown out of its lower trendline, and that is fine. Because what we are most interested in is the upper trendline of the falling wedge as it appears to be serving as resistance on the price.
This is not something to ignore as supply lines like this can often be a warning of an impending bearish downtrend if price continues to fail when touching it.
So for this reason I am moving my stop losses up to around $189.79. The reason for this is because of not only the bearish trendline over our head, but because a breaking to the downside of the .382 fib level with a confirming candle on the 4 hour could mean a retest of much deeper levels at or around the bottom of the falling wedge or our .236 fibonacci level. So closing my position in profit and buying right back in at a discount is what I will be looking for in the near future.
In the meantime, however, I am still in my long but I am monitoring closely. NVDA will need to get moving and break the red trendline but ultimately put in a higher high in price by breaking the .618 fibonacci level over our head but that discussion will be kept reserve for a future post or update.
NVDA Buy Levels [Post-Stock Split]So things got a little weird today at the open with the stock split as many traders checked their holdings to see NVDA down -70% today.
Once it adjusted and all of the speculative traders jumped ship, Nvidia found itself spending most of the day battling at our .236 fib level, which is now $185 approximately. For now it has found itself above this level after bouncing beautifully off of the floor of the fib extension at around $178.
As always, I am waiting patient for a full body candle close above our .236 fib level on the 4 hour.
Keep an eye on the open tomorrow, as this asset is still most likely trying to regain its footing after what has been a very volatile past 2 weeks.
It is in my opinion that as long as we hold where we are currently, entries for a long is fair game. HOWEVER, beware that if you open below this level tomorrow, or confirm a 4 hour candle close below this level, all bets are off and you would be wise to keep patient and allow the price action to play out as risk below the .236 becomes difficult to size up.
If you are long, make sure you have either stops or at the very least price alerts set up for $185 incase it breaks.
Considering the wicks we had today both to the upside and downside on the 4 hour chart, things are very indecisive at the moment so I am ok with simply continuing to monitor.
Also, if this level does break down and confirm, a retest of $178 would be in store. From a trader perspective, if there is a retest it will be important that it bounces and does not come back to it again anytime soon. Too many retests of $178 would put this fib retracement at risk of being violated.
On the flipside, respect and support of the current fib near $185 (.236 fib) could be the buy opportunity patient traders have been waiting for.
Below you will find my price levels after the stock split I am looking at. This was found using the same method as in the pre-stock split idea.
The same buy ladder from that idea can be applied here as well. The beauty of this is that the buy ladder works better on the way up than it does when price is falling down.
$178
$185
$190
$194
$198
$203
$210
PLZ USE ALERTS AND OR STOP LOSSES
Fib Levels On AEHR Going WAY BackHad to take the AEHR chart all the way back out to 2017 to find some levels to plot. Took the fib retracement and look what we found: high traffic area around the 236 level. Tested it for the first time since 2017 and failed to break & hold. After pulling back, AEHR came within testing distance of the 382 level. After such a huge extension it will be interesting to see if it ends up consolidating above this level or if it tests (or breaks below) it.
"If we consider that the market for computer chips is extremely in demand right now, we see just why AEHR is getting so much attention. While it is not a producer of these chips, it does work as an ancillary company in the industry. In the past six months, shares of AEHR stock have rocketed higher by around 31%. Over the past twelve months, that number shoots up to over 45%... Only recently, Aehr Test Systems won a $2.9 million follow-on order for its FOX-XP Wafer Level Test and Burn-in system as well as multiple WaferPak Contactors from its lead silicon carbide customers. While this alone is not a be-all-end-all deal, it is a big step for the commercialization of its products. Additionally, large orders tend to help with the notoriety of a product and can lead to more orders in the future... ...While many gains with penny stocks occur without news, AEHR made an exciting announcement in the early morning on Monday. The company stated that it received a $10.8 million order for its silicon carbide test and a burn-in customer regarding its FOX-XP systems its WaferPak product... "
Quote Sources:
7/12: 5 Top Penny Stocks on Robinhood That You Should Check Out in July
7/19: 3 Top Penny Stocks For Your Monday Morning Watchlist
AMD Buy?Its been a rough go for even the most bullish setups on equities lately due to the rocky nature of the macro with recent news of further inflation fears. Nonetheless we continue to hunt for the setups if not for the gains, then most definitely for the learning lessons that the markets can teach us.
For this asset, we keep things simple by keying in on an uptrend that has been supporting AMD since May.
It is expected that eventually this trend will break, but for now as long the price remains in the trend, buy opportunities exist at the green upward sloping trendline.
Once the green sloping line is broken, this will be our time to begin preparing for an exit.
The yellow line will be the first level of support should the trend be broken, but ultimately the bears will want to break the red line at $87.86 to confirm.
For the bullish case, continue to expect bounces at the green trendline of support until a full body candle closes outside of it on the daily and weekly time frames. A wise profit taking area will be around $93.50. If that level is broken and held as support, a retest of all time highs could be instore for AMD.