BTCUSDT Correction development scenario of bear market terminusBTC just made a pullback to neckline of the major Head and Shoulders formation on macro. Now, the price action is abandoning the distributive structure with weak volume, due to a micro H&S.
Points of interest
We can see on this chart levels to be watch in a potential swing downward. BTC has been trading in a choppy structure, consolidating within a ending diagonal. The potential drawdown till FEB close tends to be form a monthly bearish Harami candlestick pattern, which is highly reliable on higher timeframes.
This pattern can be consider highly reliable. A Harami bearish just play out on the last weekly close (1W) and tends to be form on 1M, in which is a rare case. In bear markets, this pattern is an important reversal signal after a rally of relief, indicating an intermediary point for an 2nd and final swing leg-down. On this chart, you can see that the potential throw-over of actual consolidation (choppy structure / breakout of Harami) is in confluence w/ a expected final swing leg-down of an expanding ending diagonal.
Choppymarket
SPY - kung fu chop the chopIn review. I see a lot of people complaining about "chop" lately. These are not the people to be following in my honest opinion. There is opportunity in all markets it is just a matter of risk management and being able to navigate the choppy waters. Circled some of the opportunity I took in this "Chop"
A week in review these are some of the best trading days I have had.
Sometimes the easiest trading is done in chop but you have to be patient and let it come to you.
Don't let the chop push you off course. Stick to your trade criteria and navigate accordingly. You just need to be patient, post your lookouts, and be ready to sound the alarm to enter the right trade.
Set alerts off of great areas of value so you don't have to spend the entire day staring at the screen.
Trade safe have fun!
BTC- No-trade zone (Quick fundamental recap)#1. Fidelity Investments has launched its first Bitcoin fund in late Aug.
#2. Snappa followed MicroStrategy's footstep by moving a significant amount of cash reserve into Bitcoin in late Aug.
#3. New clarification from US OCC clarified the confusion about the banking custody of crypto assets.
#4. Just Eat now accepting bitcoin payment in France.
MFA FINANCIAL LONGWithin 90 Days
PT #1 : $3.38
PT #2 : $3.78
Within 180 Days
PT #3 : low $4.00 range
PT #4 : $4.54
Stock has been beaten up last couple of days because of ER miss and they did not reinstate a dividend for their common stock. In essence, they gave notion they will pay a dividend before October in order to avoid excise tax (REITS must have a % of taxable income to shareholders). Preferred stocks are up because they will be paying a dividend to preferred stock holders. MFA will be required to pay 85% of their taxable income by October, as of now they have a taxable income of .10 cents per share. This would mean that a minimum 8.5 cent dividend would need to be paid by October to avoid a 4% excise tax; This amount can increase if taxable income increases, too. (This is to the best of my knowledge. Correct me if I am wrong). Their BV is ~$4 and has a bit more potential to move up (recovering unrealized losses) depending on credit spreads going forward. They have deleveraged, and are in a position to leverage themselves with assets as the markets direction in the near future becomes more clear. Funding has gotten more expensive but marginally. They've reduced the MBS exposure and are running a portfolio of whole loans which protects MFA if things begin to get worse.
In the short term, I expect them to come out of forbearance on or around June 26th (end of the month). I believe that they will reinstate their dividend at the beginning of the third quarter, October. Depending on how much it is and the progress MFA / Economy has made will dictate as to how far they will run.
BTCUSD - Choppy Today. Price Technical Analysis #81Market in last 24 hrs
- BTCUSD price moved down suddenly. Market moved ~7%, between $9.2k and $9.8k
- Price at time of publishing: $9,350
- BTC’s market cap: $172 Billion
Today’s Trend analysis
Price movement expected to be choppy today. Most of the Oscillator indicators are neutral. MACD histogram is in negative zone, RSI is trending down and is currently at 41 but CCI is already in oversold zone. To add to this, price is touching lower Bollinger Band. Overall, marketed conditions imply that the price movement is going to be choppy. Brace yourself!
- Choppy today
- ‘Oscillator‘ indicators are mostly neutral. RSI at 41
- ‘Moving average‘ indicators have flipped to indicate a downtrend. Ichimoku Cloud is neutral
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The analysis is based on signals from 28 technical indicators, out of which 17 are moving averages and remaining 11 are oscillators. These indicator values are calculated using 4 hr candles.
DM to get details of the above analysis and list of indicator & their values used to arrive at the above conclusion.
Note: Above analysis would hold true if we do not encounter sudden jump in trade volume .
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S&P500 Choppy Previous Week - Potential further declinesPrice has been range bound now for the last couple of weeks and I wouldn't be surprised if we move lower in the coming week, falling into the 2700 handle as The TVC:SPX failed last week to create new highs. I think the market needs a strong catalyst to break the most recent high around 2900, however I wouldn't add a any new positions until we break the 3000 handle. Alternatively I think buys will look good around 2700. My overall bias for the marker remains bullish!