Decoding the Mystery Behind Dec 20 Fall - Part 88. Nifty IT -1.71%
3 Months - Upward Parallel Channel - already rejected from top few months ago and 2nd attempt to break ATH going on
Weekly - Beautiful Inv. H&S Pattern - BO is also done - Facing Rejection from 3months Resistance line around 36220 levels and coming back to Retest BO zone
Is anything wrong here ?
Christmas_blues
Decoding the Mystery Behind Dec 20 Fall - Part 77. Nifty Auto -2.28%
3 Months - Rounding Bottom BO done. Target 19752 - nothing wrong in 3 Months / Monthly scale - its going up and wick is getting formed once in a while
Weekly - as you can see at every step - there is a Horizontal Consolidation (BOX Pattern) for some weeks then BO, again BOX BO and repeat.....
When the stock / sector has a crossed ATH and goes up - there is no more resistance it push it down. But it writes its own fate by creating new Support & Resistances once again because of People's Greed & Fear. When majority thinks it has grown too much - they sell off causing a temp dip.
As you can see - there are bigger Red candles in Weekly history. Absolutely nothing wrong - and Still in the Bullish pattern - no negation of pattern anywhere. Trendline Support is also an additional support
Decoding the Mystery Behind Dec 20 Fall - Part 66. Nifty Realty -2.43%
3 Months / Monthly - Beautiful Rounding Bottom structure - BO also done already @ 3M scale
Weekly - Upward Parallel Channel Structure with a Confluence of 3 Months Resistance @ 755 acting together. Double Resistance - Double Strong Analysis and a big fall today
Its not your FII friends / Covid Virus / Christmas Santa pushing these sectors down. On a normal day when any stock / sector faces a Resistance - it is bound to Fall - that's like an Open Secret. This is exactly what happened today. So Why so much Hangama ??
Decoding the Mystery Behind the Dec 20 Fall - Part 55. Nifty Energy -2.68% fall
3Months / Monthly - After a steep rise initially - the sector has reduced the angle of growth - forming an upward parallel Channel with an Embedded Flag Pattern - BO is also done 6 months back
Weekly - Precise Rejection from the Long Term Trendline Resistance. See how beautifully it touches the top of the Green candle and cuts thru this week's Red.
Remember one thing - when each sector faces their Resistance separately the fall is smaller. But when ALL Sectors face their resistances together on same day - the Fall usually is significant. Because this is how big players Orchestrate the fall and due to this "Repeated Human Behavior" the Chart pattern becomes "Predictable and Repeatable"
Decoding the Mystery Behind Dec 20 Fall - Part 44. Nifty Mid Cap 100 -3.27%
Monthly - Upward Channel with Fib Golden Ratio 0.618 retracement - 1.618 extension Target given was 41,346. Target Met & Exceeded
Weekly - Look at 1.618 level crossing and a minor correction caused by it. See how precise Technical Analysis work. Once a target is reached usually we find a retracement after testing that level
Similar to small cap - after the BO of upward Parallel channel / wedge - the customary Retest process is initiated. Same as small cap - as of today - it's an Bearish engulfing candle - but have to wait for weekly close to see.
Irrespective of the size of candle - once a retest begins - it just happens - whether its faster or slower does not matter. next support at 41302
Decoding the Mystery Behind Dec 20 Fall - Part 33. Nifty Small Cap 100 - 3rd highest fall today - 3.63%
Monthly - Upward Parallel Channel BO + Cup & Handle BO confirmed at Monthly as of Nov
Weekly - The Customary BO Retest process in progress. Today's fall has formed a Bearish Engulfing Candle, but only by weekly close we can confirm if it is still an Engulfing Candle or a smaller one with a wick at bottom.
Folks in IT / Agile process would use the term "Definition of Done.....which says "Anything is not Done until its fully complete" - So wait for the weekly close to derive the real story
Decoding the Mystery behind Dec 20 Fall - Part 22. Nifty Metal - 2nd highest fall among Nifty Peers - 3.82%
Monthly Chart - After a 10+ years BOX pattern BO in 2021, it went higher and formed an Bullish Ascending Triangle and BO was also done
Weekly Chart - After BO the usual retest is happening. Once again - compare the previous weekly RED candles - nothing alarming today and Bullish Pattern perfectly intact
Support around 7170 to 7270 levels
Estimated Path To Next SummerFull analysis to follow with specific near-term levels. Prior Intermediate 5 did not move as expected so that likely puts us inside of Primary wave B heading down. Early estimates have us in
Primary B
Intermediate A
Minor 3
Minute 2
This means wave 3 of 3 is next with the inflation report tomorrow morning. Early signs per this would have November inflation hotter than expected. Fed also determines next rate hike on Wednesday. Looks like first near-term bottom could be prior to Christmas followed by highs after New Year while most of January points down. The January bottom should hold for quite some time as we should rally after the late January low until the early summer. The final downturn is still slated to begin in early to mid summer for northern hemisphere folks. Early estimates still place the final bottom around 2200-2400 by March 2025.