CHR on a bullish tearOver the past week Chromia has gone up 80%, but I believe there might be more in this ons. At this stage of the market cycle we shouldn't be suprised to see 2x or more moves.
Bullish:
- Touching on the -0.618 FIB (daily level)
- Strong bullish divergence on the MACD
- Descending wedge
- On a support level
Bearish:
- EMA's moving closer together
- Price has used the 50 EMA beautifully as support over the past weeks (red arrows) but has now broken below it. Will this mean that it'll also serve as strong resistance?
Setting my stop loss just below the most recent swing low and the 200 EMA.
How do you feel about this setup?
Chromecast
Cup of Tea, Anyone? PT: $57Market top value line has historically been around $45 for Roku since its first IPO quarterly report. The hype was real and the price collapsed, only to rebound once again before the next call, at which point everyone realized things took off too high, too fast.
I'm sure we can all remember the long, straight road down, back towards a normalized, long term, average trend line. Lockup period also expired and things just kept going. As it percolated in the low $30s, some good bits of news for the company bumped it here and there, but the volatility of the last 6 months also had its toll on the price.
After the latest call, Roku impressed with its numbers, its move towards revenue as an ad platform (via Roku Channel) and its plans for growth the rest of the year. It's a domestic company, social, entertainment and free of tariffs for now, so the road ahead looks clear. The same trend line upwards has repeated for a third time during this long term Cup And Handle pattern. The handle itself has formed very well and maintained above the desired levels. I would personally shoot for starting a position around $43. It could dip as low $40 before the march upwards begins, so prepare accordingly. Volume has been steadily increasing since May.
The traditional breakout upwards seems to lineup for sometime next week, or the week after. Once it starts, the channel upwards towards $55+ is clear and coincides perfectly with the estimated future earnings call on August 8th. On heavy volume, it could reach $60 close to the call date. Tariff drama should be behind us by the end of the month, which would help market sentiment and momentum and further rally ROKU towards some nice gains. If you're holding this since the $30s, stay LONG. This is a gem of a streaming service that has massive adoption because of its low price point and ease of use.
Fallen, Not Beaten - Media Player for the Masses (PT $38)Roku had an insane path up to its all-time high. I knew of the product and its popularity and had set a PT of $35 for when it made its first post-IPO earnings call. Once it started rocketing up, I hit it and closed out my position. I'm sure others were as stunned as I was to watch it continue to climb and I'm sure Anthony Wood didn't know what to think once he was a billionaire for a short while. The price moved in waves and eventually started finding its real footing around $45. It climbed once more as a bull trap before earnings, only to crash down back to reality as many had speculated.
Given this year's market climate and an expiring lockup period, we can now see a nice bounce happening off a new, and more appropriate, fib chart for the stock. That $45ish hard line for market value will persist for some time, but for now the stock has been beaten to where I'd felt it was appropriate last year. Have no fear though, the Roku story is indeed spreading. It's getting stronger and is unquestionably the media player that the masses prefer for its simplicity and intuitiveness. Chromecast is too technical and AppleTV is too expensive. Roku is the real winner for the streaming, cord cutting, value seeking culture we entrench ourselves into more and more each day.
The price may linger here in the low $30s for some time without a catalyst, but the next call should be solid with some great forward guidance. Early part of the year is seasonally weak, so the last guidance to now wasn't crazy. Summer is coming and people will be indoors cooling off and students will be digesting media over their breaks and staying up to date with show trends. Without being aggressive and letting Roku slide back up in a more appropriate manner, I can see a $36-38 PT being hit short term. With more partnerships sure to come, along with expansion and updated marketing initiatives, Roku will be a steady player as it makes its way back to $40. I don't see it getting anywhere near the $45 line again until the end of the year and assuming market conditions are less volatile than they are now.
Trade this with a $40 ceiling in mind and as a good, long term hold as a streaming, media and entertainment play.