CHRW
Imminent Drop For CHRW?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box for which we are due. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on October 19, 2021 with a closing price of 97.56.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 95.8 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.929% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.523% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 12.32% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 35 trading bars after the signal. A 1% decline must occur over the next 35 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 7 trading bars; half occur within 13 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 25 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
CHRW appraoching resistance, potential drop! CHRW is approaching our first resistance at 92.75 (horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fiboancci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 85.96 (horizontal swing low support, 50% Fibonacci retracement).
Stochastic (89,5,3) is also approaching resistance.
CHRW Approaching Support, Potential Bounce!CHRW is approaching support at 81.02 (100% Fibonacci extension, 50% & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal overlap support) where it could potentially rise to its resistance at 93.09 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal swing high resistance).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is approaching support at 2.12% where a corresponding bounce could occur.
C.H. Robinson Worldwide is heading much, much higherCHRW is likely going much higher in the future. The 3rd party logistics business is breaking out to all-time highs after consolidating for much of the last five years.
Fundamental Backdrop: Changes in the regulatory environment of the U.S. freight business are taking a enormous % of truck driver driving hours off the road, due in large part to the implementation of strict electronic data logging requirements. These electronic records enforce the cap on the number of hours that U.S. based truck drivers can drive each day/week. Due to this, the supply/demand equation for moving freight is titling heavily in the favor of businesses like C.H. Robinson that benefit from this imbalance. C.H. Robinson is essentially a middle man between businesses needing to move their products and the actual truck drivers who haul the freight. As the truck drivers can demand higher rates, C.H. Robinson's piece of the pie is increasing dramatically. I expect this to show up in a large beat in Q4 revenues and earnings, with quarterly revenues likely to top $3.9 billion for the first time. There is one important question to ask. What will fix this supply/demand imbalance brought on by electronic driving records? The easy answer is more truck drivers, however, retirement rates are currently outpacing the number of new drivers acquiring CDLs. The only real fix I see is driverless trucks, and this is likely 10+ years away. C.H. Robinson seems primed to outperform going forward.
Technical Backdrop: The technical situation seems to be supporting the fundamentals. We have had a long-term consolidation pattern lasting much of the previous five years. CHRW has broken out of this consolidation and moved solidly to the upside, confirming the breakout. On the daily chart, C.H. Robinson consolidated the initial gains from the breakout without much selling pressure. This small consolidation is now looking to break to the upside as well, further confirming the new uptrend in the stock.
Minimum Price Target: $120
Likely Price Target: $150
Stop Loss: $77
From Yahoo Finance :
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc., a third party logistics company, provides freight transportation services and logistics solutions to companies in various industries worldwide. The company operates through North American Surface Transportation, Global Forwarding, and Robinson Fresh segments. It offers transportation and logistics services, such as truckload comprising time-definite and expedited truck transportation services; less than truckload services; intermodal transportation, which is shipment service of freight in trailers or containers by a combination of truck and rail; and non-vessel ocean common carrier or freight forwarding services, as well as organizes air shipments and provides door-to-door services. The company also provides custom broker services; and other logistics services, including fee-based managed, warehousing, small parcel, and other services. It has contractual relationships with approximately 107,000 transportation companies, including motor carriers, railroads, air freight, and ocean carriers. In addition, the company is involved in buying, selling, and marketing fresh produce, including fresh fruits, vegetables, and other perishable items. It offers its fresh produce to grocery retailers, restaurants, produce wholesalers, and foodservice distributors through a network of independent produce growers and suppliers. C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. was founded in 1905 and is headquartered in Eden Prairie, Minnesota.
TRADE IDEA OF THE WEEK IN CH ROBINSON (CHRW)Now this week's new Trade Idea of The Week is in CH ROBINSON (CHRW). We decided to enter a bullish position in one of our watchlist stocks, CH ROBINSON. We entered this trade on the long side at $92.94 and we have already made some gains today. This is a great setup that we loved to play called a squeeze. This is where the price consolidates and then starts to move with momentum out of the consolidation. This type of setup can produce some of the best explosive moves. Here is a list of reasons why we like this trade:
The overall market is looking strong in the short term
The transportation sector is looking great right now (you can see this sector's chart on our Sector Watch)
The price is moving higher out of a squeeze
The price has moved above the 21 period moving average with momentum
We are hoping that all of these reasons provide a profitable setup for us to swing trade the next coming days!