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CHWY

Long Chewy!!!! Potential reversal $CHWY $AMZN $ PETSsee charts at www.tradingview.com $CHWY Entry 44.75 Stoploss 43.75 Target 1 46.50 Target 2 47.55 Why CHWY? Chewy added a record 1.6 million net active customers in the first quarter, bringing total active customers to 15 million. Looking ahead In terms of guidance, the pet product retailer expects revenue in the second quarter to be in the range of $1.62 billion to $1.64 billion, which would represent growth of 40% to 42%. Full-year 2020 sales are forecast at $6.55 billion to $6.65 billion, with adjusted EBITDA to be around breakeven for the year. The Street is currently expecting just $6.41 billion in sales for 2020. What is Chwy? Chewy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the pure-play e-commerce business in the United States. The company provides pet food and treats, pet supplies and pet medications, and other pet-health products, as well as pet services for dogs, cats, fish, birds, small pets, horses, and reptiles through its chewy.com retail Website, as well as its mobile applications. It offers approximately 60,000 products from 2,000 partner brands. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Dania Beach, Florida. Chewy, Inc. is a subsidiary of PetSmart, Inc.
NYSE:CHWYLong
by WallSt007
THE WEEK AHEAD: CHWY, LULU, PVH EARNINGS; GDXJ, XOP; VIXEARNINGS: CHWY (71/85/17.34%)* announces Tuesday after the close. The June 19th 41.5/60 17-delta short strangle pictured here pays 2.55 with break evens wide of the expected move. The similarly delta'd July 17th 39/65 gives you more room to be wrong, but doesn't pay that much more for the wait -- 2.48 at the mid. LULU (36/57/10.01) and PVH (57/85/14.8) announce Thursday after market close, but have less than ideal volatility contraction play metrics. SECTOR EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY WITH JULY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF SHARE PRICE: EWW (37/38), <10% GDXJ (36/53), 13.74% GDX (33/43), 11.12% TQQQ (30/77), 17.7% XLE (30/39), <10% EWZ (29/48), 11.75% XOP (17/49), 12.4% GDXJ looks to be the most productive from the premium selling standpoint, although we're getting on the short side of duration for July (40 days until expiration). BROAD MARKET EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS WITH JULY SHORT STRADDLE PRICE AS A FUNCTION OF SHARE PRICE: IWM (39/35), 8.66% EFA (28/25), 5.50% QQQ (22/25), 5.93% SPY (21/24), 5.43% IRA DIVIDEND EARNING EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR 30-DAY >35%: EWZ (29/48) VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: The /VX July contract finished the week at 27.21, with the VIX July 22nd 27/29 short call vertical paying .75 at the mid and the 27/30, nearly a buck at .95. Going out farther in time to take advantage of contangoized term structure here doesn't net you much additional juice, unfortunately. /VX August finished the week at 27.25 -- only .04 above August. September traded at 27.70, but the 27/29 pays only .65, probably due to the fact that the VIX of the VIX (i.e., VIX implied), slopes away, with nearer term implied being higher than those of longer duration. In "derivative land," the VXX July 29/30 is paying .38, the 29/31, .71, and the 29/32, .99. UVXY is probably also paying 1/3rd the width for similar setups, although options pricing is showing wide in the off hours ... . * -- The first metric is implied rank; the second, 30-day implied, and the third, the percentage of share price that the nearest monthly at-the-money short straddle is paying (i.e., the LULU June short straddle is paying 10.01% of share price, the PVH June short straddle, 14.8%).
NYSE:CHWY
by NaughtyPines
Online Retail. V-Shaped recoveryIt is rare to see a real V-shaped recovery, IBUY will most likely test previous all-time-high. $54 to $56.5 is an important range. To see it more clearly, just zoom out, or use a weekly chart. OBV has been indicative... as we cross above or below the 200sma, we can see OBV start a trend, either down or up, in conjunction with the 200sma. After our most recent cross above the 200sma, OBV is reaching 1-year high. Watching closely for a new breakout, which will possibly be followed by a re-test the previous highs. IBUY top-10 portfolio holdings with weight %: CHWY (4.89%) STMP (4.79%) NFLX (4.01%) PETS (3.83%) PTON (3.56%) GRUB (3.48%) AMZN (3.35%) CHGG (3.21%) UBER (3.20%) FLWS (3.11%)
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by dorfmanmaster
$CHWY Is A Speculative Buy$CHWY is a speculative buy. We are labelling it as speculative because of all the unicorns that have IPO'd this year and have performed horribly. However, a number of people are coming out and saying that the stock is interesting, including Whitney Tilson and Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse thinks Chewy's (NYSE:CHWY) revenue momentum will translate into profitability down the road. The firm notes that shares currently trade at only 1.6X the 2020 EV/sales estimate, which it calls a "de minimis premium" to its $22 listing price and a "notable discount" to a broader peer group of e-commerce retail platforms (4.6X), animal health products and services (3.4X), as well as healthcare IT services companies (3.7X). The analyst team says the Chewy share price doesn't fully reflect the rapid growth trajectory and longer-term profit opportunity. CS has an Outperform rating on Chewy and price target of $29. In recent trading action, there were concerns over lockup expiration. Shares of Chewy (NYSE:CHWY) are up 5.22% on the day and are now 17.21% higher over the last five sessions. On the positive side of the ledger, William Blair was out with positive comments today and The Wall Street Journal's Heard On The Street column maintains that the 1.7 forward sales multiple on Chewy is not unreasonable for a rapidly growing company. Perhaps most importantly, the expiration of the Chewy IPO lockup period hasn't created a wave of selling today. Chewy, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the pure play e-commerce business in the United States. The company provides pet food, pet products, pet medications, and other pet health products for dogs, cats, fish, birds, small pets, horses, and reptiles through its chewy.com retail Website, as well as its mobile applications. It offers approximately 45,000 products from 1,600 partner brands. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Dania Beach, Florida. Chewy, Inc. is a subsidiary of PetSmart, Inc. As always, use protective stops and trade with caution. Good luck to all!
NYSE:CHWYLong
by InsiderFinancial
2
THE WEEK AHEAD: CHWY, LULU, COST, ORCL EARNINGS; EEM, VIXEARNINGS: It's a fairly light week for earnings, but there is some highly liquid underlyings to play for volatility contraction: CHWY (--/74): Monday, After Market Close. LULU (64/42): Wednesday After Market Close. COST (44/23): Thursday, After Market Close. ORCL (42/26): Thursday, After Market Close. Pictured here is a CHWY January 17th 21 short put at the 20 delta, paying .78 at the mid price as of Friday close with a 20.22 break even. In this particular case, I'm not looking to play earnings for volatility contraction, but waiting for earnings to pass, as well as lock up to end, which is supposed to occur on the 11th (Wednesday) with a whopping 83% of outstanding shares subject to lockup. Depending on what happens with the share price at the end of lock up, as well as implied volatility, I will look to put on a play thereafter. The only other play I'm potentially interested in is LULU, where the January 17th 190/200/260/270 iron condor is paying 2.61 with delta/theta metrics of -1.69/5.35. It's not a one-third the width setup, but LULU has had a tendency to move, so my inclination would be to go wider to stay clear of potential friskiness. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS: UNG (55/54) TLT (44/13) USO (21/30) GLD (19/10) GDXJ (18/27) With the possible exception of UNG, shorter duration premium selling isn't ideal here, with rank below 50% and 30-day below 35%. As an interesting aside, however -- compare and contrast premium selling in UNG and USO versus trading /NG and /CL directly, using at-the-money short straddle pricing: UNG January At-the-Money Short Straddle: 2.68 versus 18.03 (14.9%) /NG January At-the-Money Short Straddle: .309 versus 2.25 (13.1%) USO April At-the-Money Short Straddle: 1.75 versus 12.32 (14.2%) /CL March At-the-Money Short Straddle: 6.76 versus 59.07 (11.4%) BROAD MARKET: EEM (8/16) QQQ (7/16) IWM (6/16) SPY (2/13) First Expiries in Which At-the-Money Short Straddle Credit Exceeds 10% of Value of Underlying: EEM: June: --4.48 versus 43.07 (10.4%) QQQ: June -- 21.49 versus 205.00 (10.5%) IWM: September -- 20.05 versus 162.83 (12.3%) SPY: September 34.46 versus 314.87 (10.9%) As with the exchange-traded funds, short duration premium selling isn't paying here, so your choices are to hand sit or sell in higher implied volatility expiries farther out in time. I've been largely opting for the latter, while simultaneously exercising some restraint as to sizing, since the last thing you want to do is tie up buying power with longer-dated setups, only to have literally nothing left over to take advantage of shorter duration volatility pops. Secondarily, I've been managing these longer-dated setups more aggressively, taking them off in profit in many cases a good deal short of 50% max. FUTURES: /6B (60/12) /NG (55/58) /CL (21/29) /6E (20/5) /GC (19/10) As with the exchanged-traded funds, volatility is in natty and oil with /NG paying in short duration (January). One thing I noticed is that /CL expiry-specific premium selling doesn't necessarily lend itself to going longer-dated (at least at this moment in time) since implied is about the same regardless of where you go (i.e., January: 28.9%; February: 29.5%; March: 29.3%), so all you're basically getting paid for is duration, as compared to -- for example -- expiry-specific implied in SPY, which generally increases incrementally over time (i.e., January: 14.5%; February: 15.7%; March: 16.8%, etc.). This is not necessarily a bad thing, just an observation of what you're getting by going out farther in time with /CL options versus other instruments that have a sort of expiry-specific implied volatility "term structure." VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES: VIX finished Friday at 13.62, with /VX futures contracts trading at 16.32, 17.51, 17.63, and 18.19 in January, February, March, and April respectively. Consequently, the contango environment remains productive for term structure trades in those expiries, although it's apparent that you won't get much trading February over January due to the fairly small differential between where those two contracts are trading at the moment. In practical terms, the February 17/19 short call vertical is paying .65 with a 17.65 break even versus 17.51; the March 17/19, .65, with a 17.65 versus 17.63. In other words, it doesn't pay to go longer in duration (February versus March) here ... . As before, I'll look to put on bullish assumption plays in VXX or UVXY at extreme lows (these setups don't work well in VIX directly due to /VX term structure) and add bearish assumption in VIX, VXX, and/or UVXY on VIX pops to greater than 20 on top of any VIX term structure trades that I'm working ... .
NYSE:CHWY
by NaughtyPines
S&P Failed Breakout of Trading RangeIn a previous post I talked about this being a risky time to buy for a long term investment in the S&P , Emini, SPY , or MES . Despite what the media may want you to believe - this market is no longer in a strong bull trend. If it was, prices would break out strongly above previous highs. But what is happening instead? Prices go mostly sideways to down, signalling bull profit taking. This is because the strong bulls bought lower; they know what is happening. They do not want to buy high because the risk is too large and the probability is too low. This is also where strong bears start looking to sell and will scale in higher if they need to. They understand the probability is in their favor. What happens when both strong bulls and strong bears sell? Well, there is only one direction for the market to go.. The bulls who bought the all time high (last weeks close) are currently trapped. The bulls who bought the breakout on July 12th are also trapped on the daily chart . This is very similar to the Jan 22, and Sep 17 bull closes. Look and see what happened next. Sharp selloffs as the bulls exit in a panic. It took months for prices to get back to a level where they could get out at break even, and they had to sit through a long enduring pullback in order to avoid a loss. Furthermore they risked money to essentially break even, which is extremely dangerous. This is what is known as the "thank you god price." Where those bulls are thankful just to get out without a significant loss. If this week closes as a bear bar, it will be a bear setup for a wedge reversal and failed bull breakout of a trading range. If it fails, and there is another new all time high, the bears will likely try for a second entry in the coming weeks. In either case, the bulls only have a 40% chance of a strong bull rally and measured move up based on the trading range. The bears have a 60% chance of two legs sideways to down and a test of the middle of the current trading range, or the bottom of the trading range around 2400. If you found this helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions. See more at my website on how to learn to identify probabilities, create an edge, and develop your traders mentality.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by tradersmentality
2