FUll Road for btc using elliott waveAs you see in the chart we are on a abc corection that will finish wave 2 , after this corection we we will see the 150k that people talk about
Cicle
The Market Cycle of EmotionsWhen things are great, we feel that nothing can stop us. And when things go bad, we look to take drastic action. Because emotions can be such a threat to an investor's financial health, it is important to be aware of them. This awareness can then protect you from the negative consequences of impulsive and irrational reactions to these emotions.
1: Optimism, thrill and euphoria
Investors all start with optimism. We commonly expect things to go our way, or we tend to expect a return for the risk of investing.
As expectations are met, it is common to get excited about the possibility of even greater returns and the excitement becomes thrilling as the returns exceed expectations.
At the top of the cycle is when investors experience euphoria. But it is here where investors are at the point of maximum financial risk. When we believe everything we touch turns to gold , we fool ourselves into believing we can beat the market, we cannot make mistakes, that excessive returns are commonplace and that we can tolerate higher levels of risk.
2: Complacency, denial, hope
The second phase of the cycle occurs when the market stops meeting our new lofty expectations and begins to turn. At first, we anxiously watch the market for any signs of direction. Anxiety turns to denial and then quickly to fear, as the value of the investments decline. Many people will then start to act defensively and may think about switching out of riskier assets to more defensive shares or other asset classes such as bonds.
3: Panic, capitulation, despondency
In the third phase of the cycle, the realities of a bear market come to the fore and an investor may become desperate. Many panic and withdraw from the market altogether – afraid of further losses. Those who persevere become despondent and wonder whether the markets are ever going to recover and whether they should be there at all.
Ironically, at these times, an investor will commonly fail to recognize they are actually at the point of maximum financial opportunity.
4: Skepticism, caution, worry
In the fourth stage of the cycle, investors may experience some skepticism when markets start to rise. They often have a sense of caution or worry, wondering if market growth will last.—and may be reluctant to invest money in the market at a point when prices are still relatively low and opportunities are attractive.
What are the consequences of this emotional roller-coaster?
Emotions turn rational investors into irrational investors. So it is important to remember that markets move and investments will always go in and out of favour.
Developed, diversified long-term financial plans are placed in jeopardy when investors are confronted by extraordinary events because we are guided by our emotions. This is where the role of the financial advisor is of utmost importance – your advisor can help you separate your emotions from reality and endeavour to steer you on the path of rational investing.
You can also help to avoid the emotional roller coaster by being aware of the emotions you are likely to experience. The five most common behavioural pitfalls are:
Overconfidence – when investors over-rate their ability to select winning shares or investment managers.
Loss aversion – research indicates a loss causes about twice as much pain as a gain causes pleasure. During periods of market volatility investors experience the sense of loss more acutely.
Chasing past performance – we see this time and time again, but unfortunately, individual investors who abandon a well-diversified portfolio for bonds, or even cash, may be jeopardizing their future financial security.
Timing the market – It is difficult to correctly predict the market's movements.
Failure to rebalance – the risk/return characteristics of an investor's portfolio should be independent of what's happening in the market and this means selling high and buying low.*
The temptation to fall into one of these traps can be resisted by developing and committing to a well defined, long-term investment plan. This may be the best way to protect yourself from your emotions.
Diversification does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets.
People do not change over time. Information and actions of the consonant received information people do the same actions.
Best regards EXCAVO
Bitcoin near a change of pathIn the last analysis I've traced a zone around 7200-7600$ as a confluence area and the price actually stationed here for some time. This price level is important because if it fails to act as support, price could retest the lower triangle trendline and the daily support @6900-7000$ or go even lower for a possible triple bottom pattern @6400-6500$.
This is what I think about the state of the last month bearish price trend.
Going back to the present BTC recently had a strong reversal candle on the 4hr and this could give a couple of different scenarios:
If the reversal candle is confirmed at the end of the day there could be enough confidence to move up but we need to see daily higher lows and higher high. Price will fluctuate into a small rising wedge and reach the upper triangle trendline, maybe a bit over since the first resistance is around 7900$.
This will the critical point
At those levels the price will face also the26EMA on the daily and probably be oversold on 4hr. This will surely bring some pullback and from here the buyer confidence will be tested: if price recovers and break above those level I think there will be a strong run up to 8600$.
Otherwise, we may go down with some force and continue the bearish trend at least to 7000$ and the lower triangle trendline
So 24-36 hours will be critical, on the daily chart is worth to pay attention to the MACD crossing as another bullish sign, RSI barely touched oversold (could be enough?) and STOCH is rising
What is really surprising me is that in the last months we witnessed a trend cycle with a timing so precise that is almost uncanny. Someone speculates that this is completely mere manipulation, I can't express about that (it really could be) and for sure is another important aspect to take into account, especially now since we are close the 5-6 June.
If this behavior is confirmed we could have still some days to trade and maybe see the short bearish scenario mentioned above, personally I'll wait a confirmation above 7800$ for placing a possible long position, this is a chaotic area within I don't suggest to trade if you are not really confident.
In any case things continue to tighten and well see soon what direction will BTC take!
