USDJPY LONGOn higher time frames (monthly / weekly) UJ is showing a triangle pattern, with a ranging / sideways market confirmed by the 50 EMA, we have no overall long term bias in terms of trend. Moving onto smaller timeframes, on the daily we have an ascending channel with a ranging market between the S&R, Now on the 4hr we have a rejection of the support, a break of the short term down trend and what looks to be like a confirmation of trend change forming from a 4hr 50 EMA retest. Currently waiting on a rejecting from the 4hr 5o EMA and a bullish 4hr open which will give us confirmation of a trend change which will then give us room for a long position to our 4hr resistance which is the upper phase trend line on the daily ascending channel. Lower TF long bias for UJ currently, especially with current USD strength being shown across majors, this strength will more than likely provide the retest and rejection of the 50 EMA we require to enter.
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AUDUSD LONGPotential long option on AUDUSD, markets reaching HTF support and major key level, break from smaller TF trend and trend change confirmation from the retest of the 1hr 50 EMA. Short term long back up to retest our 4hr resistance level. Overall direction was short on higher time frames however now we have consolidated around the major support and rejected we have trend change bias. Only small (predictable) fundamentals for USD today and none for AUD, so a clear pathway for AUD to make some headway before tomorrows high impact USD fundamentals which could likely cause a pull back on smaller timeframes, or give AUD additional momentum to the upside, depending on the outcome of the fundamentals. Stop are in place to cover any unpredictable events.
GBPUSD POTENTIAL SHORT / LONGFollowing on from the rejection of the 2019 low at 1.20230 GBP has corrected back up to our resistance trend line, now rejecting and creating some consolidation on higher time frames with a triangle pattern being formed on the 4hr , we now have a slightly sideways market following the EMA on the 4hr TF.
Signs of both a reversal from the support and a break and retest are present, we'll need to await the BoE rate announcements which will give more clarity as to which direction GBP is pushing. With the 2 previous BoE rate being neutral and remaining the same we'll wait and see what tomorrow, Thursday 30th brings as we have the next MPC announcement taking place.
If we have an unexpected rate cut we could see GBPUSD fall below our support and come back up for a retest after volatility has calmed down, at which point we can expect the market to confirm change in trend direction from the 4hr uptrend to a steeper and more aggressive down trend which give us long term opportunity trades to the lower key levels previously mentioned at 1.20230.
If rates are hiked we can expect the rejection from our triangle support level and some bullish momentum towards our resistance in which case we can look for the confirmation for the short term long opportunity.
AUDUSD SHORTSell option on AUDUSD, markets breaking a smaller up trend on the 4hr with clear gravitation towards a very obviously support level on the higher time frames, again, probably a lot of liquidity awaiting around this level. Clear road ahead in terms of fundamentals for AUD, as well as for USD now after having the higher impact releases earlier today, nothing unexpected so the markets not being affected on the higher time frames. We'll look to trail the 50 EMA with our stop as the volatility should stay low for a few days until market close, so once we pass entry and have a minor key level and the 50 EMA as protection we can look to make this risk free.
AUDJPY SHORTAnother short opportunity, very similar set up to our NZDJPY trade, same overall down trend on the higher TF's and a small corrective up trend on the 4hr and daily TF's, after breaking the support phase line of the smaller up trend we had another CBO style entry with a solid retest and rejection of the 50 EMA, markets now continuing to reject and fall to the downside. More than likely being gravitated towards the lower support level on higher time frames where there is most likely a high level of limit orders and liquidity waiting to be snatched up by the market.
USDCAD - LongUCAD LONG - After forming a wedge on the daily TF around Feb 2019 we have been ranging sideways with confirmation from the 50 EMA on the 4h TF. With the ranging wedge offering up multiple short and long opportunities and seeing deceleration on the daily and consolidation on the 4hr we had signs of a reversal on the support level of the wedge. After breaking from the consolidation on the hourly TF to the upside and then retesting our 50 EMA we had confirmation of a short term trend change and a reversal to our resistance targets on the 4hr. After breaking even for the majority of the start of the trade we had a spike to the upside on the 22nd Jan following Governor Poloz's BoC speech, the main rate cuts were an unexpected turn, and was basically a U-Turn in the forecasted rates, however the unexpected cuts benefitted this UCAD long. We are now approaching 4hr target key level (200 pips / 4%) which is a major resistance level on UCAD for the 4hr and daily TF's.
UJ: POTENTIAL SHORTWeekly UJ chart showing signs of deceleration and reversal with a doji just beneath our resistance level. Daily also showing some doji's as well as a nice high test just piercing the resistance level trend line. Our 4h and 2hr time frames confirm the deceleration and rejection with a double top. Indecision and consolidation build up just below our resistance level, waiting for a break out and retest of our 1hr and 2hr 50 EMA before entering short. 3:1 RR, 40 pip stop / target of support at 108.509 (120 pips)