Cisco
At Least A 1% Drop For CiscoOn April 5, 2017, CISCO Systems Inc. ( NASDAQ:CSCO ) crossed below its 50 day moving average (MA). Historically this has occurred 236 times and the stock does not always drop. The stock has a median loss of 2.851% and a maximum loss of 30.080% over the next 5 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 34.1632. RSI tends to determine overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is trending down and will quickly make it to oversold territory within the next 5 trading days.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 23.4246. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current direction declares the stock is moving down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 1.1365. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 17.5800 and D value is 17.2248. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down, but is due to move up again in the near future.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to be heading down. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the stock could lose another 1.1% over the next 5 trading days. The stock will revisit a previous resistance level around 32.60 which could turn into new support. A possible reversal at this point could also occur due to the Stochastic level in the oversold level. However, a quick drop could cause the stock to drop to the Macro support level around 31-31.50 before it reverses up again.
Cisco ending somethingSince its recent high, Cisco has been moving sideways in a choppy manner suggesting there's still some upside potential left but as shown on this chart using the Wave Principle, we are ending something. I just don't know what and even less how for down we might go once Cisco rolls over.
So short term we might keep going sideways but we should move upwards pretty soon which will be a good place not to go long but to take your money off the table.
CSCO flag + false breakoutSignals:
flag
false breakout
Buy 31.30-31.40 (flag breakout)
Stop 30.05 (-1 tic under false breakout's low)
Target 34.00 (sizing)
R\R ratio 1:2
CISCO Short spotted divHi there. Cisco on the daily is way up above all EMA lines. Zooming in on the 1H we can see a div. So i might go ahead and short when the market opens. Have a nice day.
DOW JONES OVERVIEW: CISCO IN MACRO RANGECisco Systems trades in macro range - on 5 and 10 year basis.
Price is now currently trading between 2 key levels. The lower level is combined from 5-year (260 weeks) and 10-year (520 weeks) means and is at about 22. The higher level is combined from upper 1st standard deviations from the same means and is at 27.
Price trading within 1 standard deviation is not trending, thus the range outlined above is lateral
On short term basis the held the lower 1st standard deviation from 1-year mean (264 days), thus failed to enter a downtrend on 1-year basis. However it succeeded in falling below the 1st standard deviation from quarterly mean (66 days), thus it is on a downtrend risk there at the moment.
Overall situation hints that the price is likely to remain in the long term range for observable future (22-27)
CSCO Head&ShouldersCisco is forming bearish reversal pattern with potential Right shoulder near $25.20. Previously, I was bullish on this stock (check my ideas in the links below) but sentiment is constantly changing and point to reduce risk was at $25.60 on 31 of July when upper-level base was broken.
Now, price broke down trend up and trading on its 100 EMA that acted like support in the mid of August.
Break and close below 100 EMA will trigger my SHORT entry with risk above $25.00. Also, I switch my bias from neutral to negative on overall market, as S&P looks broken (doesn't mean its short especially when oscillators are oversold below -75).
