Citibank
GBPUSD Long-Term Buy (TRADE OF THE YEAR?)Citi has not shut up about their GBP bullish picks for the end of the year. And they might be on to something this time. This could be the trade of the year.
Brexit will be a better deal than expected. Trump will exploit the window of vulnerability to push headlines for a new 'bilateral' or nafta plus option. The rumor alone will be good and it really isn't on anyone's radar yet. Even if elections somehow result in a second referendum, still bullish. Large specs are positioning for bullish value capture over the next month. Doesn't mean they can see the future, but the upside is the better value for their 'RR' as retail traders would say.
USD could still have some kick this holiday (consumer spending obviously), a lot of early warning indicators about CPI (non-official reports) will be closely watched by investors (as they try to make judgments about the FED rate). It doesn't necessarily mean continued USD strength however. It's all very spurious in my opinion and the trade war optimism is misplaced and the global macro situation is bad bad bad, which you can read more about in my gold trade.
Expect a lot of political/social event-derived volatility. It might throw historical volatility and seasonality out the window. I don't usually do long-term trades like this, due to certain opportunity costs for my fund, but overall this should be one for the books.
The odds, and entertainment, are better than gambling.
Remember to follow, my published charts have made 100s of pips in the past weeks. I use a lot of non-traditional TA alongside global macro and other relevant fundamental research to develop these charts; these factors more accurately predict the behaviors of markets than moon cycles and inverse butterflies.
Remember to trade responsibly, especially with this. Smaller lots than normal.
Citigroup Short July Iron Condor w/ sideways channelCitibank has been trading within a horizontal range and sideways channel between 65.50 and 69 for the past fourteen trading days. Because of this, we are shorting the iron condor by writing the 69 calls and 65.5 puts for the initial strangle, and going half a dollar out on each side to acquire the protection (longing the 69.5 calls and 65 puts), thus turning the strangle into an iron condor. Being slightly below the money, it is somewhat bearish but created such that it aligns with the historical channel. By using the July 5th options, which are eight trading days away, we expect Citi to stay within the channel. This trade is done for a max profit of 30 and a max loss of 20 because the credit is .30/contract. This gives us break-evens of 65.2 and 69.3, and a better risk reward ratio (30/20) is received when the trade is done with calls instead of puts (29/21). This maximizes profit potential.
XLF Has Its Pre Financial Crisis High In SightsThe popular ETF, XLF follows the financial sector and after weeks of selling, it looks to have found support and be gearing up for a big move indicated by the Weekly Squeeze coiling for the past 8 weeks, with the momentum shifting to bullish this week. If you take a look at C (Citigroup), it too has a Weekly Squeeze. If you take a look at it on a Daily it also has a Squeeze which looks like it will fire long. If this move for the financial sector plays out long, I would expect a retest of its high back from January (30.33) then a retest of it's high of 30.84. This high (30.84 - May 28, 2007 - 11+ year ago) is an important one because this was the peak of the financial sector ETF ( XLF ) before the financial crisis of 2008.
DGB Edge to Edge Trade 28% Profit Target.Bounce of the 1H cloud support into an edge to edge cloud trade on the 4H chart. Good risk reward ratio in a volatile coin anticipating Citibank catalyst. Stop loss will be moved up as the trade progresses.
My Ichimoku Cloud settings differ from the standard settings and should be taken into consideration.
I am an amateur in TA and my analysis should not be viewed as a financial advice. All trading comes with a risk.
C: Systemic risk, extremely overboughtCitigroup shares might be poised for a retracement here, we can expect a selloff to take place, if we don't move back above 56.78. I'd reccomend either shorting it, or buying puts. You can buy out of the money puts and sell bear put spreads to reduce costs (vs buying at the money puts).
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
DEUTCHE BANKS NEAR TO FILE BANKRUPTCY by 2019DEUTCHE BANK DIDN'T BOUNCE MUCH AFTER 2007 CRISIS. It may do some reverse spilt like CITIBANK IN 2008-9 to prop up the share price and may some government bailout but in long term it will suffer a lot. All the hedge fund managers are piling up short position and share price may tumble below $4 soon. Upper limit resistance is around $20 for any upside bounce. The red resistance line shows that there is a strong possibility that by 2018/19 it will be ready to file Bankruptcy. Time has come to short the Bank if you have any grudges against it. But policy makers may ban shorting stock, but then you can do it by LEAP options but then they may ban that too :) So beware of your greed. Global economy is all time high but theses banks goanna fall one by one even before the next financial crisis hits the market.
HSBC WILL FILE FOR BANKRUPTCY SOONFrom 2007 the bank has been always in downtrend. With all those fines from different countries and the bad mortgage loans, HSBC is not able to come back up yet. Yes HSBC may do some reverse stock split like CITI GROUP did around 2008-9 but it didn't help them much to boost up the share prices.
FAREWELL TO WELLS FARGOBlack line a Temporary bounce after hitting the black line but most aggressive manipulators can hold for the below line for max profit.
There will be a strong bounce once hits this Red support line but once broke it will go down to $4 or below. Take out profit and go short after few weeks.
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At least this is the start of the another financial crisis which well may come after election or post summer 2017. All the financials banks will start to collapse.
The Dimon Bottom Hype Is OverCNBC has loved to refer the recent pullback in the SPX as the "Dimon Bottom" because CEO Jamie Dimon purchased roughly $26 million worth of JPM shares. However, it's not looking for those wanting to hold to believe in the recovery dream.
Whether investors want to believe it or not, the U.S. economic cycle is rolling over; and, considering the very high correlation to the SPX, J.P. Morgan shares will unlikely be saved.
Since 2014, I been warning of potential headwinds from energy exposure in U.S. banks. It may not cripple the sixth-largest bank in the world, but death by 1,000 cuts won't be any better for shareholders.
On Tuesday, JPM reported a 20 percent decline in trading revenues, as well as a $500 million increase in provisions (up 60 percent) due to their energy exposure. Fee revenues were down 25 percent.
Technically, the weekly chart is showing more downside is to come. Traders are watching a 20-weekly bearish convergence with the 50- and 72-weekly EMA. Price action is, also, currently below the 200-weekly EMA.
The inability to show support above this level and challenge $59.60 could poise further stress on shares.
Near-term, we'll see price action test the trend/price demand between $52.30-$53.50. A close below $52.30 would open up $48.3 and trend lower to $43.74.
If looking at Fib. retracements, a close underneath Aug 24, 2015 Black Monday low, 1.618 Fib. extension would stand at $37.54. This would be my target for Q2-17.
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Citigroup Daily (17.07.2014) Technical Analysis TrainingThe Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C) Daily Diagram Technical Analysis Training shows the following:
The C share has made long term consolidations between $46 and $49.5. The weekly diagram shows bullish trend and the monthly is neutral.
So the first think in mind is the case of daily local top at 49.50 again. So we will see if it is a strong long term resistance. MACD is bullish and RSI too. The volume is moderate.
Today it seems to make a reversal hammer candlestick pattern. The share is above the KUMO the Kijun Sen (blue line) and the Tenkan Sen (light green line) too. In addition is above the EMA 200.
There is no special pattern. There is no fib measurement.
There is something you can observe on the diagram. In the previous uptrend the Kijun Sen (blue line) could not got itself above the KUMO. But in nowadays uptrend development the Kijun Sen is above the KUMO. Thats why I think bullish even the todays' reversal hammer,