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Citigroup

Big Citibank Opportunity Citibank Opportunity - NYSE:C Company Market Cap: $82.2 billion Share Price Today: $42.68 Dividend: 0.53c per quarter (Annual Dividend of c.$2.06) Annual Dividend Yield: 4.82% Next Earnings Report: Friday 13th October 2023 Citibank (Citigroup) is the 20th largest bank in the world & a member of Global Systemically Important Financial Institutions (G-SIFIs) meaning it has stricter prudential regulation such as higher capital requirements and extra surcharges and more stringent stress tests. under the scheme deposits can be 100% guaranteed in the event of a crisis, which is not the case for smaller banks that are not considered systemically important. This additional security can add weight to a longer term hold for Citibank combined with a good 4.82% dividend yield. Citibank has recently been in the headlines with negative news for completing a management re-org with substantial lay-offs. Whilst the news is interpreted as negative, the chart appears to reaching a point of exhaustion after 31 months of downward price pressure and a roughly 50% reduction in price from $81 down to $42. We may be forming a 3rd higher price cluster or price launch pad here at $42. Earnings release is in a 4 and half weeks on 13thOctober and after 13 quarters of positive earnings the trend is green. Its worth noting that upon earnings release, the price can capitulate or ascend aggressively (historically this has been the way), this is why it is important to be placing bids or positions well in advance of the release (now) and on the day of the release we should be nimble and on our toes to capitalize or reduce risk with stop losses. Obviously for long term position players this is not all that important, we have our long term target and stop loss on the chart. There is a long term trade opportunity with a stop loss at BASE 2 at $34.37. As you can see the trade has a Risk/Reward of 4:1. People who want to play it even safer could wait for a bounce off BASE 2 but for me a retracement this low could mean lower price momentum and a break of the RSI resistance. This is why I am inclined to take a position now off this base well in advance of the earnings release. This is not my typical style of trade however I could not pass up the chart given the mid-term 31 month 50% reduction and exhaustion in price combined with the higher bases on the longer term trajectory, and to be honest the negative news really got me the contrarian in me rustled. If you look hard enough you can see a potential long term ascending triangle forming out into the 5 year time horizon. As a cherry to the trade, the dividend yield is considerably high at 4.82% for a systemically important institution – to big to fail. In Summary - Citigroup is one of the top 20 banks in the world and is considered systemically important. - Citigroup share price has been declining 31 months with an approx. 50% reduction in price. - Three Price Bases establishing higher lows are reinforced by a rising RSI support line. - To fully take advantage of the earnings release on 13th October 2023 positions need to be placed now as the stock is extremely volatile on the day of release. - If the RSI support line fails to hold this could be a warning signal of a break down into STRONG SUPPORT ZONE (Red). - The dividend yield is considerably high at 4.82% for a systemically important institution offering a little incentive for a longer term hold.
Editors' picks
NYSE:CLong
by PukaCharts
21
📈 CITIGROUP GETS UP TO RECOVER, BREAKS THROUGH MULTI WEEK HIGHSCitigroup stocks hit highest since March 2022, last up 5% as brokerage Morgan Stanley upgrades NYSE:C to "overweight" from "underweight", as well as NYSE:BAC and NYSE:GS to "overweight" from "equal-weight". Brokerage sees a rebound in capital markets amid growing signs of an imminent rebound in dealmaking. Also expects regulators to ease the Basel III Endgame proposals, a set of rules that will make capital requirements stricter for banks, which have been one of the flashpoints in the industry for months. Brokerage says the proposals could be eased to be more aligned with Europe so that European banks do not have an unfair advantage. Any easing of the draft rules will open the door for a significant increase in stock buybacks, as large-cap banks sit on the highest excess capital levels ever - NYSE:MS . The main technical graph says that NYSE:C shares add +5.25% on Tuesday, break through multi week highs, with possible further recovery to multi year top $80 level.
NYSE:C
by Pandorra
Citigroup Faces Tough Times: 20,000 Job Cuts, $1.8 Billion Loss Citigroup, one of the largest banks in the United States, is navigating through challenging times as it grapples with a $1.8 billion loss in the fourth quarter of 2023—the worst in 14 years. The bank's CEO, Jane Fraser, announced a bold restructuring plan, including a significant workforce reduction of at least 20,000 jobs, about 10% of its workforce, as part of a broader effort to streamline operations and enhance returns. The Financial Struggles: Citigroup's fourth-quarter results reveal a $1.8 billion loss, attributed to $4 billion in one-off charges and expenses. These charges include $800 million tied to the restructuring, substantial hits from its exposure to Russia, and the devaluation of Argentina's peso. The bank's quarterly performance is the weakest since the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, underscoring the magnitude of the challenges it faces. CEO's Response and Restructuring Plan: Jane Fraser, Citigroup's Chief Executive, acknowledged the disappointing performance but emphasized the progress made in simplifying the organization and executing their strategic vision. The restructuring plan aims to cut costs and streamline operations, with a focus on reorienting the bank around its lines of business rather than geographical reach. Fraser plans to eliminate five layers of management, reducing them from 13 to 8, with business unit heads reporting directly to her. The cost of these changes is estimated to be as high as $1.8 billion but is expected to yield annual savings of up to $2.5 billion by 2026. Job Cuts and Organizational Simplification: Citigroup anticipates reducing its overall headcount to as low as 180,000 by 2025 or 2026, down from 240,000 at the beginning of the previous year. The bank had only cut 1,000 roles by the end of December, and the remaining reductions are expected to follow the completion of organizational simplification by the end of the first quarter of this year. Beyond the restructuring process, Citigroup plans to shed an additional 40,000 workers through exits from its consumer banking business in Mexico and other regions. Financial Impact and Market Reaction: Despite the challenging quarter, shares in Citigroup remained flat in early afternoon trading in New York. The bank acknowledges that the unexpected resilience of the U.S. economy has provided some relief, with credit card spending and corporate expenditures boosting revenues in the consumer banking and treasury services divisions, respectively. However, challenges in the corporate lending division, with a 26% drop in revenues, and a 25% plunge in revenue from sales and trading of bonds, commodities, and currencies, underscore the broader economic headwinds. Conclusion: Citigroup's announcement of significant job cuts, coupled with its worst quarterly performance in over a decade, paints a challenging picture for the banking giant. The bold restructuring plan led by CEO Jane Fraser signals a commitment to adapting to changing market dynamics and improving the bank's overall performance. As Citigroup navigates these turbulent waters, eyes will be on its execution of the restructuring plan and its ability to emerge stronger in the post-restructuring era. The coming months will be crucial in determining whether 2024 will indeed be the turning point predicted by the bank's leadership.
NYSE:CLong
by DEXWireNews
C Citigroup Options Ahead of Earnings If you haven`t bought the dip on Citigroup here: Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of C Citigroup prior to the earnings report this week, I would consider purchasing the 41.50usd strike price Calls with an expiration date of 2023-10-20, for a premium of approximately $1.06. If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
NYSE:CLong
by TopgOptions
US30 event risk - a pivotal week of earnings ahead US Q2 earnings this week – Citi, JP Morgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, UnitedHealth This week we get the US big money centres out with earnings. The focus falls on asset quality, loan growth/contraction, net interest margins (NIM) and any commentary on the recent tightening of broad financial conditions. When we look at the companies included in the US30, there are only two banks (of the 30 constituents) - Goldmans and JP Morgan. However, the US30 holds an incredibly high relationship with the XLF ETF (S&P financial sector ETF), with a 10-day correlation of 93%. With so many of the major financial institutions reporting, assuming this relationship holds up, the US30 should mirror the movement in the US banks. Another important risk for US30 traders this week is how the market reacts to earnings from United Health (UNH - report on 13 October). UNH commands a massive 10% weight on the US30, arguably the biggest weight on the index. UNH is not a stock that CFD traders look at as closely as a say aTesla or Nvidia, given its more defensive price action. It’s one for the range traders, where buying into $460 and shorting into $520 has worked well over the past 12 months. However, given the weighting, US30 traders should be aware of the influence the stock can offer. The market prices an implied move of 2.6% move on the day of UNHs reporting, which is in fitting with the average price change over the past 8 quarterly reporting periods. UNH has seen some large percentage moves over earnings and recall in the last earnings report the stock rallied 7.2% - so a sizeable rally/decline would influence the US30 given the weight. While macro factors such as moves in bond yields, the USD and oil prices will influence the US30, one can see that earnings this week could also play a major role – time to buy the dip, or are we about to see a leg lower in the index?
PEPPERSTONE:US30
by Pepperstone
BEFUDDLED BANKINGIt’s no secret that the US banking industry is facing some significant challenges when it comes to securities losses. In fact, the Big 4 US banks - JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America - are sitting on a combined $211.5 billion in unrealized losses. That's a huge amount of money, and it's certainly cause for concern among investors and analysts alike. One of the key reasons for these losses is the ongoing volatility in the financial markets. As we've seen over the past few years, there have been a number of factors - from geopolitical tensions to trade disputes to the COVID-19 pandemic - that have contributed to significant swings in the value of securities. For banks that hold large portfolios of these securities, these fluctuations can have a major impact on their bottom line. Another factor that's contributing to the securities losses among US banks is the current low-interest rate environment. When interest rates are low, banks tend to invest in higher-yielding securities in order to generate returns for their shareholders. However, as we've seen in recent years, these securities can be risky, and when their values decline, it can lead to significant losses for the banks that hold them. When it comes to regional banks, the situation is even more dire. These smaller institutions often have smaller deposit bases, which means that they have less capital to work with when it comes to investing in securities. As a result, they may take on more risk in order to generate returns for their shareholders. Unfortunately, this can backfire when the securities they've invested in experience significant declines in value. So what does all of this mean for investors and consumers? Well, for one thing, it's important to be aware of the risks that banks are facing when it comes to securities losses. While the banking industry is generally seen as a stable and safe place to invest, the reality is that there are always risks involved. As always, it's important to do your own research and due diligence before making any investment decisions. For consumers, it's important to be aware of the financial health of the banks where you keep your money. While the FDIC provides insurance for deposits up to $250,000 per account, it's still a good idea to make sure that the bank you're working with is financially stable and secure. Doing so can help to protect your money and ensure that you have access to the services and resources that you need.
NYSE:JPM
by optionsswing
Free Market vs The FedAs of late, the vast majority of us probably have been hearing about "too big to fail" or " a free market vs. a central market" What does all of this mean?" Well, let's go over some of the basic stuff. As in some of my prior posts, it is important to understand that the "Fed" does NOT control mortgage rates or loan rates from your local banks. Let me repeat that the Fed does NOT control mortgage rates or consumer loan rates So now you might ask yourself why the Fed raises rates matter? Well, that's a great question. Because, in short, it should not matter if we were in a free market. Well, sadly, we are not in a free market. We are in a centralized market with different flavors available to us. "Ah, but Guy, you just contradicted yourself by saying the fed does not control mortgage rates, and now you're saying we're in a controlled market rabel rabel rabel " Let me explain... The Fed cannot have any direct contact with "average" consumers; it's currently illegal FOR NOW . Now, everyone, the biggest fear with CBDC is a rightfully placed fear. And we will discuss this in a separate post. So, view the Federal Reserve's manipulation of the economy as a game of pool (billiards) or snooker; what have you. In billiards (for the purpose of the post, billiards = pool), the player cannot directly hit the numbered balls with the stick (cue). Instead, one must use a medium to engage the cue ball. So, to pocket your balls, you must have a small degree of understanding of physics to transfer energy from you to the stick to the cue ball to the desired ball into the desired pocket. The Fed (cue) is the same way. They set the FFR (cue ball), which then goes to the regional and big banks (numbered balls), which then sink into the economy (pocket) So, how does this work? To explain that, you need to understand how a bank makes money. (The Following is highly watered down for simplicity's sake) A bank does not make money because you have an account with them. On the other hand, a bank makes money BECAUSE you have an account with them. So when you use your local JPM, WFC, or C bank :) as a piggy bank, they pay you an interest rate of something like a percent of a percent; however, it's still considered a liability to the bank because that's cash flow going to you from them even if it's a penny a year. So, how can they make money then? The fractional Reserve system. Mike Maloney debates this, and I'm super interested in hearing his thoughts on this... another post for another time. What is the Fractional Reserve System? Basically, for every dollar you put into your account, the bank can lend out 10$ It's basically in place because you're not running to the bank to close your account. So, they can do this. When you put money into your account, it's already out the door into someone else's pocket in the form of a loan by the time you place your wallet in your pocket/ purse what have you. And that's probably too slow for the bank. (velocity of money) Well, that bank's balance sheet of physical liquid cash probably only is enough to pay the onsite staff hourly wage the bank needs more. so they have one of two options 1. go to the Fed and borrow money at the FFR 2. go to the repo market and borrow from another bank by offering t-bills and bonds as collateral. (shadow banking) Typically they go with number one because it's cheaper. The vast majority of times they use the repo market is for cash now! or if their risk management department is trying to make some quick cash off the bond market. (shadow banking is outside the purview of this post, and I'm still learning about it. I will post about it later) ( the fed lining up their billiard shot) So, the Fed has decided the US economy needs to grow more... (the Fed hitting the cue ball) So, lets say the Fed makes the FFR 0% (hypothetically LOL) ( the cue ball hits the numbered ball) So your local JPM will go to the Fed and take out a loan at 0%, so they need to lend this money out and make money, and make their, JPM's rate, interest rate on that money 3% LOL! (The numbered ball sinks into the desired pocket) you the consumer want to go out and buy something you can afford on your 9-5 salary. So you go to the bank and qualify for a loan at their 3% rate to be amortized over 10-30 years, and the economy grows. If that sounds familiar its coincidence LOL However, in a free market how it would work is the loan system would be heavily dependent on the local economy and local wage potential. How? If a bank is set up in an area with low-income earning potential, then the market will tell the bank exactly how much they can charge on money. Example: let's say the Risk Manager at your local WFC decides he is conservative and makes the DTI Ratio for loans 30%. That means the minimum someone must make for a 200,000$ loan is around 60,000$. If the local median income is 45,000$, no one can afford a 200,000$ loan. The maximum loan amount they can make is around 150,000$. So, for the bank to grow, it either needs to up the DTI requirements, it needs to be content with its current earnings and hope the area grows or wages increase, or it can close down and move. Now where the free market comes into play is when WFC is having their DTI at 30%, JPM is at 40%, and C is at 60%, (free market remember) in the same area as the example The following happens: WFC sees their default rate is less than 10% JPM sees thier default rate at 40% C sees thier default rate in the upper 80%. So, what this means is that the market is telling WFC they are leaving money on the table but are playing it safe. Because less people qualify for the loan JPM has almost found the sweet spot. 40% of their loans are in default, but more than half are paid on time. could use some minor tweaking but solid none the less. (With my risk tolerance, 30-35% default is a good number depending on loan size.) C is in trouble because they have lent out too much, and people can't afford that much money in the area. So in a free market, WFC will fail in the area because they're not seeing enough volume, and C will fail because they're seeing too much volume. which leaves JPM to buy up both of the failing banks and grow bigger LOL!
OANDA:SPX500USD
by ARegularGuy