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Cl!

CL - Daily / Weakening Structure / EIA 10:30 AM ESTLeave it to OPEC to Delta the recent Phantom 400KBPD Output Increase. Called BS on that farce, and it's knee-deep. Thursday, they will announce a cut or rollback of the most recent snafu. Hachoo Hookah as we refer to it. ________________________________________________________________ Crude remains the Leader along with the NYSE Comp and BitCon. Weakening in Daily Structure and Failing the 3 drives to a Top at the 50% no matter how you draw it. 77 or bust again, 57's re-open. ________________________________________________________________ 10:30- AM EST will be a pivotal Time for everything.
C
by HK_L61
CL +2,000 Ticks, One hour looking for longThe CL one hour time frame is in a short term down trend line. The market is still making lower lows and lower highs. It will be a good idea to wait for the market to break and close above the short term down trend line before looking for buying ideas towards the monthly up Fibonacci price point 95.75 about +2,764 ticks away. Entry: Counter trend line break bullish above the short term down trend line. STOP: In the sell zone LIMIT: 95.75 Once or if the market is able to break and close above the short term down trend line. It will be a good idea to turn to the five minute time frame and to look for tunnel trader long / destination trader long opportunities towards the monthly up Fibonacci price point 95.75
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JoshuaMartinez
3
CL - SMA ChecklistCL is trading both FIbs ad SMAs. They have a higher price in Trade, but have gaps both Above and Below. 70.16 / 70.11 would be the Pullback, but the BOts won't allow this until after Lunch and the EU Session ends. We took a small sell only to be stopped take a $900 loss. NQ a different story as we took a small long there and enjoyed the run. 16400 is the New NQ Price Objective, we'll see how CL responds as it is tracking with NQ against the OVX. ____________________________________ Crude Oil continues to trade vertically in Extensions. One after another...
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
6
CL +2,700 Ticks BullishThe CL one hour time frame is in a short term down trend line. The market is still making lower lows and lower highs. It will be a good idea to wait for the market to break and close above the short term down trend line before looking for buying ideas towards the monthly up Fibonacci price point 95.75 about +2,764 ticks away. Entry: Counter trend line break bullish above the short term down trend line. STOP: In the sell zone LIMIT: 95.75 Once or if the market is able to break and close above the short term down trend line. It will be a good idea to turn to the five minute time frame and to look for tunnel trader long / destination trader long opportunities towards the monthly up Fibonacci price point 95.75
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by JoshuaMartinez
4
OVX - Crude Oil VolatilityThe current volatility is above historical volatility, traders anticipate higher volatility for Price in the Short to Intermediate-Term. Crude Oil WTI Jan '22 (CLF22) 66.26s -0.24 (-0.36%) Crude Oil WTI Feb '22 (CLG22) 66.10s -0.17 (-0.26%) Crude Oil WTI Mar '22 (CLH22) 65.93s -0.10 (-0.15%) Crude Oil WTI Jun '22 (CLM22) 65.26s +0.02 (+0.03%) Crude Oil WTI Dec '22 (CLZ22) 63.69s +0.26 (+0.41%) _______________________________________________________________________________ Currently, the Term Structure for Crude Oil is in very slight Backwardation. The Teem Structure is flattening somewhat - this will change in time, for now it is in the Confidence Cycle interest to keep things tightly aligned, both Up and Down. CL remains a hostage to further News Cycle surrounding OPEC's attempt to support Price to the best of their abilities within reason. They do not want to spook the Market but instead will attempt stability in the very short term.
CBOE:OVX
by HK_L61
CL - 1 Hour 3/3In attempting to stress the Risks associated I need to step it up... this is the entire Measured Move and RTs for CL into 2022. 85.41 - HIgh 23.6% - 66.7872 38.2% - 55.2664 50.0% - 45.955 61.8% - 36.6436 76.4% - 25.1228 100% - 6.5 Low _____________________________________________________________________ For now, with traders looking for a "Right Shoulder" but waiting for a lower Fill for the reversal... The Trade IS 100% CF, a WAG Trade. _____________________________________________________________________ Traders are afraid to wait, afraid to Enter. Fear is present, everpresent. FEAR _____________________________________________________________________ The rather odd thing, once again... is there a Rush to discover how wrong you could be? I certainly would like to believe not, but am proven wrong every day by the Majority. Gunslinging is an Option, always. We prefer the Bar, where Dirty Monkeys are chill, smoke is thick and Alexandra can find her next soul mate. ______________________________________________________________________ The game has been to run the price up into Lunch SELL thereafter, Launch Globex opens on the right day of the week and pray. We'll bite, but... with extreme caution... the Downside is enormous, the upside contained. Greed will kill a great many here.... both ways. Be Nimble, be quick, and don't anticipate Miracles... they're not arriving. ________________________________________________________________________ CL is a WidowMaker once again.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
2
CL - Daily / What May or May Not BE - 2/3 Algos enjoy jacking Price, they are exceptional at moving Offsides to Out of Balance. Friday was an excellent example of their ability to fool, confound, and RANGE. Price, as it has all week, sold off into the Afternoon Session, Lunch was the Pivot time. __________________________________________________________________________ The Thursday Afternoon "Simulated Pit Close" @ 2:30 PM EST was 66.17. The Magnet was set. Friday's close - just over. Open Outcry may be long gone, but Rules used remain Rules. As do the .55 and .85 Price Pivots going back many decades. These levels were used by Floor traders to establish over and under for Price movements IntraDay. ___________________________________________________________________________ Opening Gap was destined to be filled as it was @ the Prior Pit Close by a few Ticks, all one had to do was hold their nose (as we did taking a whacking @ 50% Level only to 2X down at the Fr of the .618) until the Lunch Sell began. The Gap took its sweet time to fill - BUT - Every Retrwcement was SOLD, HFTs were extremely active. The SELL was very clear - patience as the Fill dipped in and moved lower. End of Day Profit taking took care of the Close over 66.17 / 66.06 _____________________________________________________________________________ Thursday's Price movement failed to recover the . 618 Level, Friday spooked Sellers by pretending to run it. We see the "head and shoulders" pattern setting up and Traders are anxious to "Catch the Low" for the reversal... assuming this pattern will compete.... regardless of the Fill, to them it appears we have a 3X Bottom with a Higher High. They will be chasing Price all over the Range this week... it is all but assured. Hoping to build a position for the "Move back to 72-76" ______________________________________________________________________________ The chart has a well-defined Impulse Trend Line for Retracements. The problem is the above - what the Majority Expects in Downtrends... has broken more Traders over time than I care to remember, having watched a number of them Buy to the Bottom. Relenting is not something that comes easily to Oil Traders, they "Average Down" forgetting CL will simply continue to Power Down when in Trend. Simply look at the Weekly / Monthly Charts... Absolute Carnage. These charts are damaged. Crude Oil will end up going much lower - barring a WAR. The potential for regional Conflict has never been Higher. SO there's that - but it's Winter... and again that is not the TIme as these will be Ground Wars to secure "things" - Bread Baskets, People, Movements, Materials. _________________________________________________________________________________ What is crystal clear is this: There is a Global RollUp of Energy, the United States went from being the World Leader in production due to short turn Shale ramp-ups... to a Dependent due to Klaus Schwab's Cult of Green Eggs and Ham. Ideally, in a RollUp, you want to buy on the cheap... by Bankrupting an entire Industry so you may pick up the pieces on the Down Low. Production has already been hit in within the US - simply look at Rigs below 500. __________________________________________________________________________________ Oil is essential, it is not going away anytime soon, it is however being used as part of a larger schema to Wreck Things. We are at a pivotal Juncture into the end of the Year. Volumes will begin to abate as will Liquidity. The $10 Drop occurred on a Friday, usually very low participation for Crude Oil. Didn't quite Pan out that way. Extreme caution is warranted in Crude as it will follow the Equity Complex around the Board this week. It may end up leading again, we'll know more as the Week progresses. Guess wrong, you'll be smoked.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
1
CL - Crude Oil / Larger Structure and Clarification 1/3 Need to Clarify my position for Crude Oil with respect to the Bullish stance and a retest of the Prior Highs as there appear to be confusion surrounding prior commentary - ​Crude Oil would become a very large Position for the Next run in Oil. Time is nowhere near this Entry - Not remotely Close. We are not encouraged by the current Price Action, not at all. Hopefully, this provides clarity - it is not time to be bullish for reasons we have outlined in prior commentaries from both a Fundamental Energy Complex Analysis and as a Trending Instrument. ___________________________________________________ CL Commentary for today will be provided in 3 separate Posts. Commentary 1 is the Larger Structure. Monthly, Weekly, and Daily Structure is - very poor. As a Trending Instrument, it stays in Trend with few exceptions. Counter-Trends at Measured Move Price Objectives are part and parcel of the Larger Structure. How these behave will be illustrated in the following Commentaries 2 & 3. There are Limits to Counter-Trends, most often the Momentum and Trending Cloud sets the Upper Limit. SMAs, also provide limits, the 21 and 34 SMAs set ceilings as well. ___________________________________________________ The salient takeaway for CL is one of immense Risk as it has measured moves to 61 - 57 - 38 - 23 Crude Oil has been leading the decline, it is a leader. It signifies Overall Economic Activity, which we have shown to be on a very rapid decline for many months, regardless of the Pabulum from the Ministry of Confidence. Confidence has collapsed as Humanity comes to grips with new arrangements to their realities. They are quite dire. This is not my opinion, it is grounded in facts - based on mathematical realities. Opinions vary, in no way does that noise enter the analysis. ___________________________________________________ The Larger Structure for Crude Oil illustrates this unwinding of both Economic Activity and Confidence. There are 2 Primary Sentiment Indicators for Confidence - UMich and CB - samples sizes are 500/3000 respectively. Miniscule by design. Both have collapsed and are not going to recover much as we are in the late stages of the Equity Bull Market. __________________________________________________ Crude Oil VX is measured by the OVX, it is an important metric and one which should be used daily. API, EIA, RIGs - all complete BS and used to guide Confidence, we documented this year ago and it has only become far more insidious as to Mis-Reporting Factual Data. Make no mistake, it is all a large smokescreen. Price tells you everything you need to know, it has confirmed the Failures Crude Oil. ___________________________________________________ As well drill down into Time for Crude Oil, we will see a number of distinct patterns appear in Commentaries 2 and 3 to follow. Price remains in a very Dangerous Area at present, the Risks are immense. Part 2 will follow in several hours.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
CL - Daily / Structure @ 377s Price ObjectiveCrude Oil is attempting to complete the 377 SMA Trend Line touch. On the Dialy STO/RSI we see it is nearing Deeply Oversold conditions. However, this does not suggest it will not trade Lower. It can and likely will with any luck. ______________________________________________________________ Lockdowns remain a concern. - It is a day-to-day evolution. Anti-viral Efficacy is also of concern. - Pfizer will report trial results this week. OPEC is of concern. - Tomorrow they should announce their Intentions. They will clearly not increase Production. a cut by 2-3 million barrels per would shock the Oil Markets. They may well surprise as they are heavily invested with Oil needing to Trade @ $70+ to recoup Investments in Petro-Chem. They will protect their I Capital investments. This does not suggest Oil will immediately head to new highs, but it could provide for a Large Retracement to over $70 and perhaps $72+. Selections - MId Terms needed cheaper Fuel costs and China pursued reductions in Trade with Iran for Oil, reducing their uptake. ________________________________________________________________ An interesting MIX above on the Fundas of Oil. What is troubling is this, Oil - when it sells - does head straight down, it is consolidating in this Range.
C
by HK_L61
3
CL - Oh MyCrude Oil is Dangerous, as CL defended Micro Support. It can retrace prior to the Next Sell OR It can implode to 57, we believe it will, just not yet. ________________________________________________ USA and OPEC are in no way increasing Production, pure comedy at this point. The Press Release was a convoluted amalgam of nothing. No Change in Plans, but our Plans will INDEED Change. 400KBPD over/under was used to Squeeze. "All is well or appears to be - so we'll let ya's know in a few weeks as we intend to keep the meeting open in perpetuity". Idiocy, convoluted idiocy. Simply Put, they will be making Cuts, but need price far more stable as we don't want $20 Crude Oil. Which they may well see. __________________________________________________ Extreme danger here, we got cute buying the PO Yesterday and were not around to manage so we closed after 133 Ticks. It reversed 500 off the lows... a very large Squeeze. 68.68 PO has held into 8:30 AM EST
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
16
CL - PO Hit during GlobexCrude crossed its Retracement Objective during Globex @ 67.16. 63.73 and 62.42 are now the Lower Range. OPEC Wraps up today. ____________________________________________________________ Currently, the largest influence on Oil is the Equity Complex, it is tracking the NQ closely. Expect VX in CL as it's due for far more, they'll need to squeeze this back up to 68.69 to prevent a waterfall decline. A Break of the LT Trendline is now 64.45 - Price traded it yesterday. ____________________________________________________________ OPEC Meeting began @ 8 PM EST and should conclude this morning with an announcement by 10:30 AM EST to 11:30 AM EST.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
2
CL - 57 - 92 Range Should this Lower Trend Line Hold... We will buy it with both hands for 2022 as the 88-92 level could come back into trade very quickly. IT WILL NOT BE A SLOW GRIND-UP. Not a chance of this occurring as Shut-Ins are wrecking any chance of meeting the weakest of Demand Globally. ___________________________________ This could easily be the trade of 2022 for the quickest and Outsized gains. Patience, of course, but we have been eyeballing this for a while now. Cheers to it running to 57, if not... so be it, MAR - JUN TFs for Contracts. If you do not have the Capital to trade Full CTs then use MCL the Crude Micro. This trade will be one for the record books and breaking 92 sets 104 107 114 122 134 141 148 in motion. ___________________________________ Publishing Limit hits again. Congratulations are in order to those who followed the entry plans on Trade. It was a very good day and more to arrive this week. It's been extremely volatile and created immense doubt which is completely understandable. Patience and a plan work the Majority of the time. Be well, Be Blessed everyone - HK
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
4
CL - Daily / Weakening Structure @ 377s Price ObjectiveCL continues to Lead Lower, we see the reaction @ 64.40 Price Objective was a Front Run of 3 Ticks, quite small. IN the end, the Objective was reached, we closed our SELLS again @ 56. _______________________________________________________________ What is important is the Potential for Crude Oil to now Ping Pong between the 144 SMA and 377 SMA. Should it not, then the SELL will amplify again. The 57 to 62 Range would then come into the Trade. ________________________________________________________________ Frankly, we are excited about this Resolving into 2022. M2 will continue to expand. Russia and OPEC as well, the UAE have NO INCENTIVE to create supply just yet. This is a Coordinated shove lower. China is facing an enormous dislocation in Housing where 74.7% of the average Chinese person's Savings reside... it is wreaking havoc on Global Markets... a Contagion that simply gains traction every day. EverGrande has defaulted... there are many sources in the US, Germany, Canada, the UK, and a host of other Holders who has acknowledged there have been no payments on Bonds. They won't announce BK, it occurred over a month ago. China's Real Estate Market is the 1987 Equiv of the German Bund, which kicked things off then. Confidence continues to power down, the FED and Admin will be required to do something/anything to prevent a complete meltdown. They will, the issue will be when. ______________________________________________________________________ We should now see an RT in Crude Oil.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
6
CL - 1 HourPrice Objective remains 64.40 Operators are able to use Globex for Fills only to return to the SELL. This hourly Draw perfectly illustrates what is being done for Entry into the Trend. We have Lower, Larger TF Objectives down to 57 at present. ______________________________________ We prefer to be Long CRUDE at lower levels, the imbalances are going to end up irreparable in 2022. Lows will be Bought, the issue remains from where. The lower the better clarity and the possibility could see a full retracement. This would be a spectacular offering for those who understand the Energy Complex games being played.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
2
CL - 1 HourCL was covered over the weekend. As indicated we are Energy Buyers at levels, in particular - CL. We believe it will ret-test its 148.20 Level and eventually exceed it by $100. ________________________________________________________ IF the recent Low was the Fill into a new Uptrend... oh my that would be something surreal for Oil. I've laid out the OIL Complex Strutuce Fundamentals, which Longer Term are going to see Extreme Imbalances driving Price. It is merely just the beginning of Oil's Trade. _________________________________________________________ For now, we have Sold our Position and are now back to flat. Waiting for further Price movements to decide based on how it reacts at Levels. CRUDE OIL remains in an enormous WEEKLY/MONTHLY SELL Setup. CL is approaching Resistance @ 82.66 - We are watching intently... It would be stunning to see it move up dramatically, completely unexpected by Price Action... It gets more interesting each and every day. Hopefully far lower fills for 2021/2022 - but anything can happen when the this breaks.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
11