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higher prices on Crude oil (update) If prices continue to struggle going bullish after inventory or week come in red. I expect prices to drop into mitigation and if that happens you will see an explosive move on oil. Otherwise, they should take buy side liquidity @70.77 and come back into internal range (mitigation/volume imbalance) Mind you, if the fed also cuts rates today that will weaken the USD and strengthen foreign currencies creating more demand for oil and short inventory reports will surge prices higher.
NYMEX:MCL1!
by jewlstagara
1
WTI Crude oilOur overview: Despite EIA report a big draw in stock and the impact of the Red Sea commercial routes disruption, is still not clear, the market experienced a deep selloff. In our opinion due to end of year portfolios correction and take profit. Trends analysis: Primary(purple): upward corrective structure wave B, intermediate(green): downward corrective structure wave B, minor(yellow): upward corrective structure wave A, intraday(orange): upward impulsive structure wave 1. Our current strategy: Aggressive Long looking for a technical rebound with first target @$73.80. Our current position's risk profile @$72.20: delta +0.48, gamma +0.19 Hedging point: on breakout $71.50
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DeltaZeroFinance
WTI BULLISH OUTLOOK AND POSSIBLE STRATEGIESWith recent market dynamics, the oil trading landscape has witnessed significant shifts, presenting traders with lucrative opportunities. Here are actionable strategies tailored to capitalize on these developments. 1. Fed's Dovish Stance and Demand Surge: The Federal Reserve's dovish outlook coupled with the International Energy Agency's upgraded oil demand forecast signals a potential uptick in oil consumption. This suggests a bullish trend for oil prices. Traders could consider entering long positions or call options in anticipation of a sustained price increase due to heightened demand projections. 2. OPEC's Tightening Supply Scenario: OPEC's report highlighting a potential deficit in the oil market, especially if OPEC+ production cuts persist, indicates a tightening supply situation. Traders may benefit from this by leveraging the anticipated supply shortage. Long-term positions or bullish spreads might be favorable strategies to capitalize on the potential price rally resulting from constrained supply. 3. Declining U.S. Oil Inventories and Weakening Dollar: The Energy Information Administration's data revealing a substantial drop in U.S. oil inventories, alongside the weakened dollar, strengthens the bullish sentiment. Considering the reduced supply and increased affordability of oil due to the dollar's decline, traders could explore long positions or bullish futures contracts to align with the rising prices. 4. Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East: Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly recent attacks on vessels, add to the uncertainty surrounding oil supply. Traders might view this as an opportunity for short-term gains through cautious but strategic investments, keeping an eye on potential supply disruptions that could trigger price spikes. In conclusion, recent market developments indicate a favorable landscape for bullish trading in the oil market. Traders can consider adopting long positions, call options, or bullish spreads to capitalize on the projected increase in demand, tightening supply, weakened dollar, and geopolitical uncertainties. However, it's crucial to stay informed and adaptable to swiftly respond to evolving market conditions for optimal trading outcomes. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by legacyFXofficial
WTI BEARISH OUTLOOKOil prices saw a decline due to skepticism about OPEC+'s output cuts and concerns over growing supply overshadowing potential disruptions in the Middle East. U.S. crude settled 1.4% lower at $73.04 a barrel, and Brent dropped 1.1% to $78.03 a barrel. Despite announcements of output cuts, the lack of confidence in compliance and doubts about measurement methods have cast shadows on the effectiveness of these measures. Geopolitical events, such as attacks in the Red Sea, have revived concerns about potential disruptions to Middle Eastern oil supplies, amplifying market anxieties. Additionally, fears of decreased demand and weak global manufacturing activity in November added pressure on prices. Technical indicators signaled bearish sentiment, indicating possible support levels at $66.78 and a potential rebound around $74.75. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by legacyFXofficial
Oil - Bulls Will Be Totally AnnihilatedIn early September, we made what turned out to be a pretty accurate call on crude, predicting that $95~ was the target. CL WTI Crude Oil - Getting In Sync With The Market Makers In July, after analysis, I predicted that the target for crude in the intermediate term is actually a 3-or-4 handle, based on reading the tea leaves of yearly bars. Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins There's all sorts of fundamental reasons, one will say, that mean there's NO WAY oil should go down, so much! It should go up, because reasons! And I think that is true. I think we're going to see $150 or $200 crude in a future that isn't very far away. But before that happens, since oil has failed to continue upward momentum, the entire previous range from the Russia-Ukraine War has been traded, and the year has mostly been flat-red, it seems to me pretty obvious that the MMs are going to be MMs and go dumpster some long-term longs. Which means we have a target of $56 before the end of 2024, based on monthly candles: It's only that I think $56 won't be "the bottom," they'll drive it lowerer for longerer and make energy bulls and equities bears hate their life, before the real fun starts, because that's how big accumulation happens. Super high prices is almost always preceded by super deep selling. Producers get net short. Before they get net short, it takes some time to get net long, and even though you may not see that in Commitment of Traders, the big oil companies have entire floors of their headquarter buildings devoted to trading, a lot like a bank. The Black Swan of Black Swans, though, that can spoil everyone's fun plans, is the Chinese Communist Party and Xi Jinping's tenuous grip on power and reality. I've said in virtually every post that the CCP is going to fall in our lifetimes. It can fall in one of two ways: 1. Xi Jinping goes Gorbachev and throws the evil Party away, saving China and himself 2. Xi Jinping is strung up as the head of the evil Party, goes down to Hell with the CCP, and something else replaces it What's at stake for Xi is not only the CCP's boundless crimes against humanity and the ruination of China's 5,000 year Heavenly Dynasties, but the eternal sin of the 24-year organ harvesting and genocide against Falun Dafa's 100 million students. Although that persecution was started in 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin, who died, because Xi is the leader of the CCP, he'll inherit the crime and face the same Sepulcher, unless he can throw the regime away like the man he ought to be. When the CCP finally falls, whether it's because Wuhan Pneumonia dropped more than former Premier Li Keqiang, or because Xi dumpsters the Jiang Faction and the International Q Cult that's made itself a particle of the Red Dragon, everything is going to be bigly gap down on a Monday morning. Stuff like the price of oil may seriously moon, however, because the world society's electricity, heat, and transportation relies entirely on fossil fuels. And so all dumps on commodities may sharply truncate and reverse seemingly without cause, all equities rallies may sharply truncate and reverse seemingly without cause, and so the risk is enormous. Trading in these markets in the next 6 months is going to be like playing with fire or gambling your fingers near a really sharp knife. Never forget this point: a knife just cuts. A knife doesn't care who or what it cuts. It just cuts. If you don't want to lose your fingers and your hands, don't put your fingers and your hands under a knife. Once they're gone, there are no miracles to bring them back. The way it's looked at up high is that, in reality, you made the choice to put your hands under the knife, and so when it cuts what should be cut, it cut what should be cut, and that's your own problem caused by your own pursuits. Be careful.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by LordWrymouth
1
Oil: Thoughts and Analysis Today's focus: USOUSD Pattern – LH after Trend Break Support – 86.84 - 88.00 Resistance – 90.60 Hi, and thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we are looking at the USOUSD on the daily chart. We are continuing to watch price after it broke the last trendline. So far, we have a new LH after the break, with price continuing to push lower in today's session. Will we see further selling confirm the LH trend break pattern? Price will have to beat support to make this happen; otherwise, a new hold at support and break of resistance could suggest buyers are going to form a new leg up. We will contnue to watch seller momentum today; also, check out the USDCAD, as it may try to make a new push higher, and Crypto, as it continues to push higher into the new week. Good trading.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDShort
by Eightcap
Crude Oil (CL) Gap Fill LongWhile it's unclear whether crude, which has experienced large moves recently on account of the developing conflict between Israel-Hamas, wants to trade higher or lower over the longer-term, we’re looking to take near-term longs after filling the downside futures gap formed 10/6. We’re only showing down to a 30-minute chart here, but there are some smaller supply/sell zones @ ~84.25-84.75, which could be used for initial profit targets. If the trade works for a bounce, you can also consider applying mechanical targets @ 1:1, 2:1, 3:1, etc. Regarding an exact entry price and stop loss placement, the gap fill demand zone is a bit messy. The closing price of the gap itself, technically, is 82.81, so ideally we’d see CL trade to that #. However, markets aren’t always THAT precise, so it could put in a low at a slightly higher price. Furthermore, stop placement really depends on the timeframe used. The “distal” (lower bound) line of the daily demand/buy zone is 81.50, so if you can afford the risk, a physical stop could be placed below (never align your stops exactly w/ a zone’s range + don’t use whole numbers/quarters). More conservative placement could be slightly below 81.71 or 82.31, but there’s a higher chance you’ll be stopped out; depending on account/position size and risk tolerance, you can always deploy a “small loss, reenter” strategy. If you’re nimble enough, consider using a micro timeframe (single-digit minute, tick, or volume-based chart) to ID a trend reversal signal (higher high, higher low) before entering. If CL violates recently formed daily demand (82.81-81.50), be aware that there are “bear trap” areas waiting just beneath. Entries within the corrective segment of the uptrend that began in late-June are valid until prices breech the 77.59 pivot. As always, feel free to provide feedback and/or ask questions. Good luck, be smart, and enjoy the journey! Jon @ LionHart Trading
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LionHart_Trading
Oil to bounce to test $94I think oil will now bounce to test $94. I'm short term bullish; medium term bearish. Oil took a hard dive "low liquidity run" through the previous swing-low which was taken out. The next swing-low is $77-ish. But we are hitting 20 week MA and prior old highs at the same time. Thus the slow stochastic weekly losing embedded (was above 80 now falling below 80) means a run to the 20week MA was likely. The next few days will show whether or not this confluence of old highs and 20week is strong enough to arrest oil's fall towad the liquidity pool (swing low) of $77. My trade has been to open longs using credit-puts below that $77 level where there should be much stronger resistance than the confluence already mentioned. Counter thesis is that the price cheese-knife's toward the $77 liq pool which could accelerate a sell-off. 20 Week is the "hold the line" for the trade.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DarthTrader1357
Oil (CL) Aggro/Oversold Fade BUYQuick take/analysis, but consider scooping some low-risk crude contracts here (break above 84.84). Better demand zones are lower, but we've had a sizable downdraft into buy areas + are testing a key support/resistance area (~84-85), so those traders may be at our backs. The US dollar has finally taken a pause at the supply zone we ID’d in posts from earlier this week/last week, so that may help commodity, including CL, longs. Keep this one a tight leash; the bounce we’ve had thus far has been tepid, a micro timeframe higher high/higher low hasn’t yet been put in , and daily/weekly “demand” is lower still (low-80s/upper-70s). That said, CL is certainly a trade to put on your radar. Given the technical structure of the recent selloff, consider taking any profits at 1:1, then 86, 87, and 88+. Again, better buys are lower, but start paying attention/stalking longs as remaining profit margin for short sellers is a lot smaller than it was at the beginning of the week (though there is still some downside risk)! Happy trading! Jon @ LionHart Trading
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LionHart_Trading
usoil wti is ready for pullback (Reuters) -Oil prices slipped by around 1% in early Asian trade on Tuesday, after falling to a three-week low in the previous session, on a stronger U.S. dollar, rising U.S. bond yields and mixed supply signals. Brent futures for December delivery declined 99 cents, or 1.09%, to $89.72 a barrel by 0549 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI), fell 78 cents, or 0.88%, to $88.04 per barrel. "(Brent) crude oil prices slid to (around) $90 a barrel as rising US yields and a stronger US dollar dominated market sentiment," ANZ analysts said in a client note. "While supply remains tight, higher interest rates means expensive storage of inventories. This could lead to further destocking of oil inventories while increasing spot availability." Earlier on Monday, the U.S. dollar rose to a 10-month high against a basket of major peers after the U.S. government avoided a partial shutdown and economic data fuelled expectations the Federal Reserve will keep rates higher for longer, which could slow economic growth. Higher interest rates along with a stronger dollar also makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, which could dent oil demand. The announcement from Turkey's energy minister that the country will restart operations this week on a pipeline from Iraq that has been suspended for about six months further weighed on prices. "In theory, under the terms of the OPEC+ deal, production (outside the GCC) should remain flat over Q4. However, Iraq’s compliance has been somewhat spotty in the past and export levels should be expected to rise, assuming the pipeline resumes operations as planned," analysts from BMI Research said in a client report. OPEC+, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) plus Russia and other allies, is expected to keep its output settings unchanged when it meets on Wednesday, keeping supplies tight. BMI Research analysts said "given that the global economy is slowing, the group will likely want to maintain their current cuts, while signposting the scope for further reductions, if market conditions demand it." Saudi Arabia is likely to raise its November official selling price of Arab Light crude to Asia for the fifth straight month, according to a Reuters survey.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ttrade-With-Logic
Crude Oil Short OpportunityI posted a lot about Crude Oil on my Website and also on YT. The first short was nice success. Now we get the chance to do it again "Sam" §8-) This current test of the L-MLH of the white Fork was brutal. The squeeze is similar to the one of the 23rd of September. Just a little smaller, but more vicious. As for a Stop, I think it needs top be at least above P2. This gives us a Risk to Reward > 3, if price can tank down to P3, at the L-MLH of the red Pitchfork. As always, play it small in these vertical markets. Don't try to be a Hero. Just protect your Capital. All the best Tr8dingN3rds §8-)
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by Tr8dingN3rd
CL WTI Crude Oil - Getting In Sync With The Market MakersIn late July I made a call that oil's actual target in the imminent term is not $100+, but actually a 3 or a 4-handle. Oil - A New Long Leg Down Soon Begins I believe that this long term analysis is still correct. However, price action has shown that the target was finally the daily gap at $85 and was achieved last week. Thus far in some 7 weeks of trading, oil has only gained $9. I likewise believe that before Natural Gas goes on its next bull run, it's going to violently abuse the longs with a raid under $1.8 NatGas - No Moon Until Doom But with current price action, we may get a false breakout over $3.1 before that can happen. A pump in energy and metals in September would be congruent with the thesis that equities are going to have a very red September as a setup into a Q4 that takes out the highs, which I outline here on the Nasdaq ES Futures: Nasdaq Futures - Are You Prepared For Red September? But the problem for retail traders is everyone is "practical" and believes that we're going straight up from where we are. It's a new bull market, some guy who works for some big bank and is tasked with engineering liquidity for high net worth clients and funds, told social and establishment media. Equity bulls need to give their head a shake, though. And so do energy bulls. With the U.S. being net short hundreds of millions of barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the Fed reiterating that interest rates simply are not going to be cut until there's an international economic crash, the "long" trade only exists insofar as riding the wave that is intended to kill long term funds who are net short. If the scheme really is to rally like it's a new paradigm into Q4 and create a Bump and Run and then blow the world economy away in 2024 ahead of the next U.S. election, which Joe Biden will win because Donald Trump will die in prison, then there are significant risks. It's just like Burning Man where they decided to do a ritual sacrifice to the Azov cult in Ukraine and were met with a flood and rainbows and now are trapped in 6 inches of their own urine and feces and alkaline mud. What I mean by the above is that the best laid plans of mice and men always go awry, and this should be obvious to anyone who understands the situation in China with even a modicum of sobriety. Unfortunately, the people who understand China with a modicum of sobriety are almost nobody. Xi Jinping is an idiot who is still holding onto the Chinese Communist Party, the most murderous and worthless regime in all of human history. While Xi has never participated in the persecution of Falun Dafa's 100 million practitioners, which was started July 20, 1999 by former Chairman Jiang Zemin, and has even been killing the Jiang Faction as his real target in the Anti-Corruption Campaign, Xi is still the head of the CCP. When the CCP falls, Xi will fall with it and be impugned as responsible for all of the Party's sins in all of history. And this means that in the process of the CCP falling, Xi may show a glint of intelligence and wisdom and overthrow the Party himself, Gorbachev style, using the persecution as a weapon to protect the real China from being taken over by the International Rules Based Order that uses Taiwan as a proxy. What all of this means for energy and equities and really everything else is significant gap downs are ahead in the markets, and are likely to come at prices that are high but not that high. This is because if significant problems in China emerge and go viral on social media that Party West's propaganda machine are unable to suppress, it will disrupt the plan, and all of those long positions that are set to sell at high prices will turn around and start market dumping. This means you'll wake up one morning and see that SPY and QQQ are down 12% on market open, and this time, unlike COVID, you aren't seeing daily reversals for mitigation. Everyone will just be open selling to get into USD cash to run for their lives. Nobody will be around to maintain the bots, and every market will look like a cryptocurrency memecoin. So here's the trade on oil. We may see an immediate reversal at $85, where we are now. But I think the real target is $95, which will take out that effective daily bar double top printed in November of last year. That will draw in all the $100 call moonboys, since energy bulls are even more irrational than goldbugs. And they'll expire worthless as we head into the $40s to end the year while Apple prints $220 and Tesla prints $420 and NVDIA prints $480 (lolAIbulls). So if you want a trade heading into September, maybe we get a retrace to $82 on oil. Consider going long with a stop under the $77.60~ low. Sell at $95. Look for big dumps and go short on the retrace and hold into February for a $30 candle. Then get long for January '25 printing $150+.
NYMEX:CL1!
by LordWrymouth