Cl!
Will WTI follow Natty into the basement? Is WTI going to suffer the same fate as Natural Gas ? Endearingly referred to as Natty ? Well the good ship Natty got REKT last week. The long side which was overcrowded, overleveraged caught the "to da moon" bagholders off guard . Stunned whilst spitting out the kool aid they were seen gasping for air when the dead cat bounce rocked the boat ., Natty was batterred and was last seen heading into shallow water dangerously close to the rocks . Choppy water ahead alert the marine units.
The setup on CL very same chart right before the dump so spread out grab your umbrellas !!!
The trade : Let price action have the final say on your entry get the best price you can very important! Patience pays when shorting! Monday may get some purchasing for the week early on so shorts may get pinched a bit before any ride either way. Wednesday the EIA inventory numbers are relesed at 10:30 EST. OPEC meeting also this week I believe so expect volatility. Sell 83.60 & higher use stops longer time frames target 59.50 might be best move of the year if it goes. Record or near record inventory build over the last month so stay tuned! Not a trade recommendation or a reccomendation to buy or sell securites of any kind.
Is CL Preparing For A Big Bounce?Technical Analysis:
- Crude Oil(CL) is still doing a ((W)) ((X)) ((Y)) correction structure in Daily Chart
- We present two possible Paths
- For Path 1 in Black with 65% probability. We expect that the correction will be completed at around HKEX:53 -56 where the smart buyers can appear
- For Path 2 in Blue with 35% probability, We expect that the correction will be completed at around HKEX:40 where the smart buyers must appear
- In short term, It's doing wave ((X)) in black once it's done we can forecast the buy area more precisely
- H1 right side is up
- H4 right side is turning up
- In orange decision area, the Path 1 will increase the odds if H4/Daily RSI divergence are erased
- CL is still not preparing for a big bounce really
Technical Information:
- Don't sell CL in short term
- As a swing trader, you must wait for the correction to be completed in wave II in red in order to buy at around HKEX:53 -56 in Path 1
USOIL longIf I'm right (a big IF) USOIL may rally significantly in the coming weeks. Between 77-76 is the buy area. Under 76 and things could get ugly quickly, but the mid time frame rsi is telling me that is probably not going to happen. I'm looking for support in this area and a move up to 90 in the coming weeks.
Good luck!
Don't Buy CL Now!Technical Analysis:
- Crude Oil(CL) is doing a ((W)) ((X)) ((Y)) correction structure in Daily Chart
- We expect that the correction will be completed at around HKEX:50 -55 where the smart buyers will appear
- In short term, It's doing wave ((X)) in black once it's done we can forecast the entry area more precisely
- H1 & H4 right side are turning up
Technical Information:
- Don't sell CL in short term
- Wait for the correction to be completed in wave II in red in order to buy
CRUDE OIL. INTRADAY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSISCRUDE OIL
HOURLY CHART
Current structure showing that wave 4 is in play. Based on guideline of alternation within impulse wave, we are expecting a shallow/sideway movement for wave 4 and the reasonable target for wave 4 to end is at 38% golden ratio. Invalidation level must hold for this idea.
TRADING IDEA:
Stay away for now and wait for wave 5 trading setup to go long with the market.
-pengiran
WTI - GAP CORRECTIONThe Biden administration said the surprise oil output cuts announced on Sunday by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ countries were not advisable. The west is not excited by the price development and we can expect an answer to keep the black gold in a reasonable range. Mid-70s is working well to reduce inflation and keep the economy running, that's why a logical move is to boost production supply as a corrective measure.
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Don't Buy CL in Short Term - Right Side is DownAs you see in the chart, we expect more downsize in Crud Oil(CL) and we like to buy medium term wave II in red to around $50 where we expect that the smart buyers will arrive. Please be patient for more some days in order to do a good long term buy. Next week we'll update this forecast.
Crude oil 7.03.2023Now the situation that fundamentally pressures the price of oil , it is the sale prices of oil from Russia, and this is a trigger for the market, for a further decline.
Now we are moving in a range of 83-69, breaking through the upper level will mean for me, reaching the liquidity zone, collecting stop losses and continuing the move down
Best regards EXCAVO
WTI In the following weekWith the confirmation of the price above this level of 77.67, we will go up to the level of 80.55, and if this level is broken, we can reach our monthly level again, which is the range of 82.60.
The next prediction is that if we reach the range of 80.55, we will have the possibility of returning the price to the level of 77.67
Elliott Wave View: Sideways Price Action in Oil (CL) May Result Cycle from 12.9.2022 low is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 12.9.2022 low, wave 1 ended at 82.64 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 72.31. Internal subdivision of wave 2 unfolded as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave 1, wave (i) ended at 79.45 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 82.48. Oil then extends lower in wave (iii) towards 79.04 and wave (iv) ended at 80.49. Wave (v) ended at 76.55 which completed wave ((a)) in higher degree. Rally in wave ((b)) ended at 79.73.
Oil then extended lower in wave ((c)). Down from wave ((b)), wave (i) ended at 74.97 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 78. It then extends lower in wave (iii) towards 73.1, wave (iv) ended at 74.41, and final leg wave (v) ended at 72.31. This completed wave ((c)) and 2 in higher degree. Oil has turned higher in wave 3 with internal subdivision as another impulse. Up from wave 2, wave ((i)) ended at 78.84. Pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 73.80 with internal subdivision as an expanded flat. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 76.52, wave (b) ended at 80.62, and wave (c) ended at 73.80. Oil has turned higher in wave ((iii)). Near term, as far as pivot at 72.31 low stays intact, expect pullback to find support in 3, 7, 11 swing for further upside.
usoil long 4h When trading crude oil using technical analysis, it is important to consider the following key factors:
Chart patterns: Understanding common chart patterns, such as head and shoulders, triangles, and trend lines, can help traders identify potential buying or selling opportunities in the market.
Technical indicators: Technical indicators, such as moving averages, Bollinger Bands, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI), can provide valuable information about market trends and help traders determine the strength of a trend.
Supply and demand: Traders should also consider supply and demand dynamics, such as changes in production levels, global economic conditions, and geopolitical events, which can greatly impact the price of crude oil.
Volatility: The crude oil market is known for its high volatility, and traders should be prepared for significant price movements. It is important to have a risk management strategy in place to limit potential losses.
Diversification: As with any investment, it is important to diversify one's portfolio to minimize risk. Crude oil should be just one component of a well-diversified investment portfolio.
Keep updated: Staying informed about market news and developments, such as changes in production levels, geopolitical events, and economic indicators, can help traders make informed investment decisions.
Patience and discipline: Successful trading in the crude oil market requires patience and discipline. Traders should not make hasty decisions based on emotions, and instead follow a well-thought-out trading plan.
In conclusion, technical analysis can provide valuable insights into the crude oil market, but it should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and a well-diversified investment portfolio. As with any investment, there are risks involved and traders should always approach the market with caution.
Crude Oil Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 Crude Oil Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023
Based on the data from OVX we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 40.5%, equal to last week.
This can be translated in +/- 5.62% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel
TOP: 84.54
BOT: 75.54
If we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the OVX( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter
to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be:
74% according to the last 20 years of data
50% according to the data since 2022( I would recommend the 72% instead)
So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan
From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information:
Currently there is a :
31.5% to touch the previous weekly high
66% to touch the previous weekly low(already hit)
At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see :
4H Timeframe: -26% Bearish Trend
D Timeframe: 0% Bearish Trend
W Timeframe: -53% Bearish Trend
Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move:
4.65% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario
5.6% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
Elliott Wave Outlook Suggests Oil (CL) Should Continue HigherOil shows a bullish sequence from 12.10.2022 low favoring further upside. Rally from there is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 12.10.2022 low, wave 1 ended at 81.50 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 72.46. Internal subdivision of wave 2 took the form of a zigzag structure as the chart below shows. Down from wave 1, wave ((a)) ended at 76.6, wave ((b)) ended at 77.42, and wave ((c)) ended at 72.46. This completed wave 2 in higher degree. Wave 3 higher is in progress with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree.
Up from wave 2, wave (i) ended at 74.91 and dips in wave (ii) ended at 73.25. Oil then extends higher in wave (iii) towards 81.23, and dips in wave (iv) ended at 79.25. Final leg higher wave (v) ended at 82.38 which completed wave ((i)). Wave ((ii)) pullback is in progress with internal subdivision as a zigzag structure. Down from wave ((i)), wave (a) ended at 78.13. Expect a wave (b) rally followed by another turn lower in wave (c) to complete wave ((ii)) before the rally in Oil resumes.
USOIL sell opportunityOil news was bearish in particular (11.01.2023) with a very large supply increase at the EIA. However market rallied and took out many short positioned traders. We anticipated this and remained neutral. For now, we see a possible rise into the impending CPI news to take out more liquidity before the continuation of downtrend for USOIL.