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Cl!

Consumer Sentiment / Without Question - C R A S H Dead AheadThe Greatest Bubble in History is unwinding with fits and starts. Economic Conditions Globally - within the lower 3% Historically. Multiples for Equities - within the Highest 4% Historically in very Real Terms. Monetary & Fiscal Excess - The Greatest in History, bar none. 100% Assured: Reality is brought to bare with the Consumer who is being squeezed like a sponge, wrung out and left to dry up, wither and dustify. During the 1929 Crash, it was the Industrial Centers of our Productive Economy who observed the Level of Commerce, Euphoria and Distended Prices... they Sold everything that was not nailed down. It was not Wall Street - why would they end the Great Game of Wealth Transfer. They would not. The Public merely piled in and joined the Selling. When Confidence fails, it is over for a generation. That was then, from the early 1980s our Economy began to shift to a Tertiary, Consumer-based arrangement. Irrational behavior merely follows suit upon the False signals provided via both Monetary and Fiscal Policies, provided the Drugs to imbue speculations. It has been the exact same throughout recorded History. Human behavior and incentives never actually change. The shift to a Consumer-based Economy was temporary. Great Wealth was accumulated and squandered under the privilege of Dollar Senioarge. Eventually, the dislocations become evident, often decades later. Observe the Financial Environment, the final stage of Crazy is unwinding. There is much further to devolve, there is no outcome that will be tenable to the vast majority of Humankind. All that is required is a loss of confidence in the "Systems" - we see this is taking shape in the very Pillars which support the failing Systems. We no longer have an Industrial Sector of Scope and Scale, but rather a series of Financial Arrangements that are no longer sustainable by any metric. The Can Kick... it's ending - Sooner than later. Wall Street follies at this juncture can and will be even more extreme, count on it as there is nothing left but wild dislocations, absurdities and further Lies, Corruption, and Greed to unravel. __________________________________________________________ TV is missing a large amount of DATA, get it together TV. Recently there have been a number of Prints @ 50. It is far lower than the half-baked UMich Numbers. __________________________________________________________ What has caused every Crash of larger proportions? Sentiment, the Investing Public pulls the trigger and Exits. Insider Sentiment Peaked in March and remains unreported past April 2022. __________________________________________________________ We will see a Crash unparalleled in our lifetimes. It is approaching with absolute certainty.
FRED:UMCSENT
by HK_L61
9
Long Crude! - Trading with the COT ReportThis is a great example of how to trade the COT Index and Net positioning - Commercials for crude oil are almost always net short (Think of all the big oil companies hedging their product) but in this instance, they are less net-long than they have been in quite some time (Not since November 2016). Look on the daily chart for an entry - be patient - remember your stops. I also like that the macro trend is positive. Added bonus - a great way to hedge your prices at the pump. Note: Trading the COT simply tells you when we're in a bullish/bearish environment. An entry still needs to be made based on price behavior. Additional Note: Look how accurate the COT Index has been on Crude (Red and Green highlighting on the lower chart) Notes on My Trading Methodology and What I'm Even Talking About COT Definitions: - COT: Commitments of Traders Reports - A weekly report published by the government (CFTC) that shows long and short positions of the below 3 groups (As well as much more data I don't look at). We look at the NET positions of these 3 groups and compare them to historical levels to signal trade opportunities 1- Commercials: Hedgers - We want to trade with them when they're at extreme levels (Think Tyson, Cargill, General Mills, etc) 2- Large Speculators: Hedge funds and large institutions - We want to fade them when they are at max positions (Think suits in NYC and commodity funds) 3- Small Speculators: People/institutions trading small lot sizes not big enough to report to CFTC - We want to fade their max positions as well since they represent the public (Think dude in his PJs trading and small trading firms) Indicators on Chart: - The first indicator shows the net positions of the 3 groups above plotted over time - The second indicator is an index of the relative buying/selling of commercials over a certain lookback period. Anything above 95 is looking for buy, look to sell when it hits 0 - Note: Just because the Commercial's net position is negative doesn't mean it can't be relatively net long and signal a buy (same in the opposite scenario) Trade Setup - Both Must Happen: - When commercials are at max levels we are alerted to buy or sell (Depending on the criteria above) - On a daily chart, use technical indicators, candlestick patterns, news, etc to enter the trade (not shown here) - Added bonus when the trend is your friend (I use a Multiple Moving Averages indicator to visualize)
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Rudeadam18
2
How to trade OilLooking at CL1! now, a break of Friday's low is a daily-down rotation. Below $100 opens the door back down to the $96.50 area, followed by ~$93 and the 200-day. Oil bulls have not been used to seeing /CL in a downtrend this year. However, that's the case at the moment with the 10-day acting as active resistance, while it's below all of its major short- and intermediate-term moving averages, as well as uptrend support. Longer term, the trend still remains constructive, but /CL is currently vulnerable. On the upside, oil needs to reclaim $105 to $105.50 to unlock $110+ but it will need to do more than that to repair the recent stress on the charts.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by bkenwell
Crude Oil - CL Daily WedgeStructurally, Oil looks to be moving higher in time. We see Early July as the pivot to higher after a potential dip in to lows to chase away the Retail Herd. China imported a record volume of Russian crude in May, with arrivals surging by 55 percent to nearly 2 million BPD. This has made Russia the top oil supplier to the world's leading crude importer—putting it ahead of Saudi Arabia for the first time in a year and a half. A record volume of cheap Russian oil, which sells at steep discounts to crude from other countries, made its way to Chinese refiners last month, according to figures from China's Administration of Customs. Off NYMEX Pricing discounts are quite common and have been for some time. Our Riggers appear bound and determined to spike Oil as high as possible to suit their needs for the Greener Agendas and pastures of the promised BBB. Build back from the rubble... isn't going to work now other than facilitate a move to Robo Transpo.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
2
Daily Futures Volatility Forecast 27 May 22 Gold, Silver, OilGOLD XAU USD 27 May 2022 For today, the current expected volatility is going to be below 1.5% with a chance of probability of 88% This is going to be translated in a movement of +- 27.6 from opening candle Taking into account the close candle price which was around 1850 we can consider our daily channel the next TOP 1878 BOT 1823 For today we have no big fundamental news which can affect the price of the asset. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SILVER XAG USD 27 May 2022 For today, the current expected volatility is going to be below 2.78% with a chance of probability of 88% This is going to be translated in a movement of +- 0.62 from opening candle Taking into account the close candle price which was around 21.98 we can consider our daily channel the next TOP 22.6 BOT 21.37 For today we have no big fundamental news which can affect the price of the asset. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ US OIL 27 May 2022 For today, the current expected volatility is going to be below 4.6% with a chance of probability of 88% This is going to be translated in a movement of +- 5.25 from opening candle Taking into account the close candle price which was around 114 we can consider our daily channel the next TOP 119 BOT 109 For today we have no big fundamental news which can affect the price of the asset. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by exlux