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CL-OIL

Crude Opportunity Part 1Previously, heads up about BTCUSD and it was pretty spot-on. Oddly enough, CRUDE OIL CL1! is next. For the first part, here we look at the marked time lines, and the effect after these time lines. 5 of the last 6 times, saw a bullish rally. Of these, 4 of the 5 occasions had the Rate of VolDiv (custom indicator) trend changed for an uptick. In essence, the current weekly Crude Oil Futures CL1! show a similar set up ready for a spike and rally for Crude Oil. No fundamental reason (yet) but the technicals are projecting a billish scenario based on the technical set up. Part 2 will look more in-depth and zoom into the recent time frame... Stay tuned if you are keen...
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by Auguraltrader
USOUSD (OIL), key support remains in play Thanks for checking our latest update. Today we are looking at oil on its daily chart. The key questions we are asking today from a technical perspective are: Will we see key support continue to hold, and will the rough looking ending diagonal pattern confirm, setting off a new rally? Or could sellers finally break the discussed key support area, setting off a new leg lower? Key support: $67 - $66.50. As always, traders must remain vigilant and stay abreast of the latest updates from OPEC and geopolitical influences, as these factors can significantly impact the market. Good trading from Eightcap.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSD
by Eightcap
Crude Oil Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 Crude Oil Weekly Forecast 30 Jan - 3 Feb 2023 Based on the data from OVX we can see that currently the IV for this week is at 40.5%, equal to last week. This can be translated in +/- 5.62% weekly movement from the open of the candle, which makes the next top/bot channel TOP: 84.54 BOT: 75.54 If we were to make a more accurate statement, based on the current percentile of the OVX( from 0 to 10) , we can apply a condition in the filter to look for scenarios when the volatility were lower than 50 percentile( bottom half). If we were to take this data we can see, that our numbers would be: 74% according to the last 20 years of data 50% according to the data since 2022( I would recommend the 72% instead) So we can use this data instead for proper calculation of our trading plan From the technical rating analysis point of view we can deduct the next information: Currently there is a : 31.5% to touch the previous weekly high 66% to touch the previous weekly low(already hit) At the same time if we are going to take a look at the moving average rating for different timeframes we can see : 4H Timeframe: -26% Bearish Trend D Timeframe: 0% Bearish Trend W Timeframe: -53% Bearish Trend Lastly on average, based on the current percentile, we can expect that our asset is going to move: 4.65% from the open to the close candle for the bullish scenario 5.6% from the open to the close candle for the bearish scenario
NYMEX:CL1!
by exlux
Crude Oil Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 We cCrude Oil Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 6.51%, up from 6.33% from last week according to OVX data With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 83th percentile, while according to OVX, we are on 77th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: Bullish: 4.62% movement Bearish: 5.6% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 21.3% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 76.33 BOT: 67.24 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 30% probability we are going to touch previous high 76.2 67% probability we are going to touch previous low 70.1 Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Weekly timeframe indicates -66% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index Daily timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index 4H timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
NYMEX:CL1!
by exlux
Crude Oil is BearishNYMEX:CL1! Crude Oil futures marked on the 4h chart After being neutral the past week due to ranging behavior, CL has just possibly shown its hand on where it is headed to in the short term. Confluences Overall bearish order flow since the summer. Liquidity grab at the double top (marked with the X line). Market Structure Shift (MSS) by breaking the short term low at ~87.60. Retraced into 4h imbalance and rejected it, thus showing it is respecting a premium price and now seeking a discount. In premium of September 26 - October 9 dealing range as shown by the fibonacci. Looks like bread-and-butter sell model in the making. Current signs show oil is intending to go lower. I am anticipating at least 81.30 as a target level because there is a liquidity void resting below it.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Sans_Sheriff
3
Elliott Wave View: Oil (CL) Has Started New Leg HigherShort term Elliott Wave view in Oil suggests the rally from 9.26.2022 low is unfolding as a 5 waves diagonal. Up from 9.26.2022 low, wave (1) ended at 93.64 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 82.11. The rally then resumes and Oil has broken above wave (1) peak suggesting the next leg higher has started. It also shows a bullish sequence from 9.26.2022 low, favoring further upside. Wave (3) higher ended at 93.74 with internal subdivision as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave (2), wave 1 ended at 90.36 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 87.60. Wave 3 higher ended at 92.87, and pullback in wave 4 ended at 90.40. Final leg higher wave 5 ended at 93.74 and this also completed wave (3) in higher degree. Wave (4) pullback is now in progress to correct cycle from 10.18.2022 low before the rally resumes. Near term, as far as 10.18.2022 pivot at 82.11 stays intact, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more upside. Potential target higher is 100% – 161.8% Fibonacci extension from 9.26.2022 low which comes at 99.7 – 110.5.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Crude Oil dropping contrary to fundamental expectations?. Crude Oil D1 4-9-22: - Fundamentally there are lots of reasons to expect higher prices - Seasonals and technicals however point to more downside Seasonal: - Seasonally Oil tends to be weak in Q4 - Weakness started earlier this year so might end earlier also (NOV-midterms ?) Pivot Points: - Monthly: Price is below SEP Monthly Pivot, heading for S2 = <80.00 - Quarterly : Q3 predicts a run from QPP to QS1 = Yearly Open = Monthly Range Low = 50% retrace of upswing = 75.00 VWAP: - Yearly VWAP has been broken lower - Quarterly VWAP in now in charge - Need a convincing break above QVWAP in order to turn bullish again Correlation: - CADJPY normally follows Oil closely, now big divergence - Divergence probably due to extreme YEN-weakness - Gives reason for a closer look into CADJPY .
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by xtrader1
This is my plan for Crude Oil.Crude Oil is one of my favorite assets to trade . My trading strategy on the commodity is about waiting for the price to reach key levels, then waiting for clear corrections in those areas, and finally developing setups on the breakouts of those structures towards the next relevant support/resistance level. The timeframes I use on Crude Oil most of the time are Weekly, Daily, and 4hs. What is my view from the current levels? After a huge bullish movement, caused mainly by the Russia-Ukraine crisis. We have observed a consolidation in the current zone for the last 40 days. From here, it's clear to me to define the long-term bullish target(140.00) and the long-term bearish target (80.00). At the moment, I'm not interested in developing setups on the bearish side. However, I see a trading opportunity on the bullish side that I will definitely take if all the conditions go as expected. You can see my setup in the following picture: The strategy here is to wait for a breakout, wait for a retest, and trade the retest on a new local high. Those retests I'm speaking about tend to take between 4 to 10 days. It's really important that you can define the setups you are interested in in advance, so you can study all the different variations or situations you may go through and get ready for them. This will improve your trading results. Also when you define the scenarios you want to trade, you are indirectly saying that you will avoid trading in all the other places. Thanks for reading! I will keep updating this idea. Feel free to share your view in the comments.
NYMEX:CL1!
by ThinkingAntsOk
2