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CL-OIL

CL - Crude Oil / Larger Structure and Clarification 1/3 Need to Clarify my position for Crude Oil with respect to the Bullish stance and a retest of the Prior Highs as there appear to be confusion surrounding prior commentary - ​Crude Oil would become a very large Position for the Next run in Oil. Time is nowhere near this Entry - Not remotely Close. We are not encouraged by the current Price Action, not at all. Hopefully, this provides clarity - it is not time to be bullish for reasons we have outlined in prior commentaries from both a Fundamental Energy Complex Analysis and as a Trending Instrument. ___________________________________________________ CL Commentary for today will be provided in 3 separate Posts. Commentary 1 is the Larger Structure. Monthly, Weekly, and Daily Structure is - very poor. As a Trending Instrument, it stays in Trend with few exceptions. Counter-Trends at Measured Move Price Objectives are part and parcel of the Larger Structure. How these behave will be illustrated in the following Commentaries 2 & 3. There are Limits to Counter-Trends, most often the Momentum and Trending Cloud sets the Upper Limit. SMAs, also provide limits, the 21 and 34 SMAs set ceilings as well. ___________________________________________________ The salient takeaway for CL is one of immense Risk as it has measured moves to 61 - 57 - 38 - 23 Crude Oil has been leading the decline, it is a leader. It signifies Overall Economic Activity, which we have shown to be on a very rapid decline for many months, regardless of the Pabulum from the Ministry of Confidence. Confidence has collapsed as Humanity comes to grips with new arrangements to their realities. They are quite dire. This is not my opinion, it is grounded in facts - based on mathematical realities. Opinions vary, in no way does that noise enter the analysis. ___________________________________________________ The Larger Structure for Crude Oil illustrates this unwinding of both Economic Activity and Confidence. There are 2 Primary Sentiment Indicators for Confidence - UMich and CB - samples sizes are 500/3000 respectively. Miniscule by design. Both have collapsed and are not going to recover much as we are in the late stages of the Equity Bull Market. __________________________________________________ Crude Oil VX is measured by the OVX, it is an important metric and one which should be used daily. API, EIA, RIGs - all complete BS and used to guide Confidence, we documented this year ago and it has only become far more insidious as to Mis-Reporting Factual Data. Make no mistake, it is all a large smokescreen. Price tells you everything you need to know, it has confirmed the Failures Crude Oil. ___________________________________________________ As well drill down into Time for Crude Oil, we will see a number of distinct patterns appear in Commentaries 2 and 3 to follow. Price remains in a very Dangerous Area at present, the Risks are immense. Part 2 will follow in several hours.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
CL - Daily / Structure @ 377s Price ObjectiveCrude Oil is attempting to complete the 377 SMA Trend Line touch. On the Dialy STO/RSI we see it is nearing Deeply Oversold conditions. However, this does not suggest it will not trade Lower. It can and likely will with any luck. ______________________________________________________________ Lockdowns remain a concern. - It is a day-to-day evolution. Anti-viral Efficacy is also of concern. - Pfizer will report trial results this week. OPEC is of concern. - Tomorrow they should announce their Intentions. They will clearly not increase Production. a cut by 2-3 million barrels per would shock the Oil Markets. They may well surprise as they are heavily invested with Oil needing to Trade @ $70+ to recoup Investments in Petro-Chem. They will protect their I Capital investments. This does not suggest Oil will immediately head to new highs, but it could provide for a Large Retracement to over $70 and perhaps $72+. Selections - MId Terms needed cheaper Fuel costs and China pursued reductions in Trade with Iran for Oil, reducing their uptake. ________________________________________________________________ An interesting MIX above on the Fundas of Oil. What is troubling is this, Oil - when it sells - does head straight down, it is consolidating in this Range.
C
by HK_L61
3
CL - 1 HourPrice Objective remains 64.40 Operators are able to use Globex for Fills only to return to the SELL. This hourly Draw perfectly illustrates what is being done for Entry into the Trend. We have Lower, Larger TF Objectives down to 57 at present. ______________________________________ We prefer to be Long CRUDE at lower levels, the imbalances are going to end up irreparable in 2022. Lows will be Bought, the issue remains from where. The lower the better clarity and the possibility could see a full retracement. This would be a spectacular offering for those who understand the Energy Complex games being played.
NYMEX:CL1!
by HK_L61
2
CL > opportunity for large gain over a short time periodOil is showing a classic rectangle bottom. This is a pattern at the end of a down trend. The criteria are. That one of the horizontal lines needs to be touched 3 times and the other 2 times. This fulfills the criteria. Rectangle bottoms can break out in either direction. Be prepared to take a short or long position on candle close (in this case a 4h candle.) Rectangle bottoms do even better when the volume goes down as the rectangle moves to the right. This seems to be the case here. You can also trade this by going short when price touches the upper line and buy when it touches the lower line. You can see the potential targets and they are substantial. Though I would decrease my position as it approaches the target and pocket some profits along the way. Please like and follow if this has been helpful. Ms Bunny
NYMEX:CL1!
by UnknownUnicorn11430563
17
CL> example of head and shoulders pattern with neckline triggerHere is a head and shoulders pattern and how the neckline can be used as a trigger for either a short or long position. Wait for neckline to declare itself as support or resistance. 2 possible scenarios: 1. Price breaks neckline (resistance currently) wait for retest of what would then be support to enter long position. 2. If price bounces down off neckline then enter a short position on candle close. No need to wait for confirmation because it has already been confirmed as resistance Down wedge tells me we have more room to go up. But what happens at neckline is unknown. Follow the rules above, use proper risk management and you will be okay. Please like and follow me to stay up to date on my trade setups. Ms. Bunny
NYMEX:CL1!
by UnknownUnicorn11430563
2
CL> triggers for either a short or long position.Hello fellow traders! I hope you are enjoying my charts and analysis. As you can see from my past analyses and now this CL analysis, I am strictly a trade by patterns kind of person. Wedges, ascending/descending triangles, pennants, flags, diamonds, double/triple tops, head and shoulders carry GREAT POWER especially when combined with support/resistance and supply/demand, (support/resistance is not the same as supply/demand despite debate to the contrary- though they are interlinked). I remember a quote from a ancient Greek philosopher (I think ;)- though I can't recall his name that states "with great power comes great responsibility". What is our responsibility? Always manage risk and reward to near perfection AND always use a stop loss. Some traders may not use a stop loss but I think this is a recipe for disaster. Disaster may not come today or tomorrow or next year or the year after that; but rest assured it will come. All the traders I know who did not use a stop loss did so after striking disaster. Avoid impending disaster by always using a stop loss. If you enjoy my charts and analysis please support with a follow and a thumbs up. It will make my day- believe me :) ANALYSIS OF CURRENT CL CHART: (follow the numbers below with the numbers on the chart) (please see my previous analysis of CL and how closely price has followed my idea, including the big crash the other day) 1. The basic premise of this chart is- Are we in the initial stages of forming a new downward parallel (purple) channel? This would make sense with oil and the upcoming summer. 2. We have been following the yellow parallel channel since October 2020 (Autumn- not a surprise). Now we are possibly forming a new down channel shown here in purple. We are at a critical point here with the bottom line of the yellow channel forming resistance. Price ended Friday right at this resistance. You can mentally form a symmetrical triangle around the current price action. This supports a crossroads because symmetrical triangles can break out in either direction. When 2 factors come together at once it supports your position. 3. You can see the big black wedge that is formed and you can see that price broke out of the inner wedge bounded by the red line and the black line of the black wedge. A wedge within a wedge is another crossroads sign, so now we have another signal that we are at a critical area. Price temporarily broke out of the black wedge but this was a false breakout. 4. A trigger for a long entry will happen if price breaks the black trendline of the black wedge. You may enter on the breakout (aggressive entry) or on a retest of wedge (conservative entry and you could miss the entry). 5. A trigger for a short entry will happen if price breaks below blue support line and becomes resistance. Again you may take a position on the breakdown of support or a retest of what will then be resistance (this is called confirmation). You can see that if price breaks down we still need to get through the demand zone which is weak (this could appropriately be called support at this point). If price breaks below the blue support line and especially if price breaks below the next demand zone, then I would say we have confirmation of a new downtrend within the purple parallel channel. Those are the 2 scenario's for this week. I do not know which way price will go so I always like to set a short and long trigger. If I had to say, I would say price will go back up because wedges usually take priority. But not always! If you would like me to do some tutorials on trading with shapes and patterns I would be happy to do so- let me know in the comments. I have a lot of information to dispense about patterns if desired. One last thing- the only indicator I use is RSI. This is primarily to look for bullish and bearish divergence (regular or hidden). I do pay attention to overbought and oversold but this is secondary as price can remain in these areas for a long time. But if there is bullish or bearish divergence in one of these zones it is a very powerful tool. Thank you all for listening. I always want everyone to win their trades. I never root for someone to lose money. Even if someone takes the other side from me. The market will decide who wins; not me. Again you would make my day with a follow and a thumbs up :) Ms. Bunny
NYMEX:CL1!
by UnknownUnicorn11430563
8
CL bullish bias as a wedge gets a wedgie.You can see the formation here of a down wedge within a down wedge (wedge gets a wedgie).this is the yellow wedge and the black wedge. This points to a bullish bias longer term. Though you can see I am a seller right now from 65.10 with target price of about 63.70. This is where the yellow and black wedge intersect. I love this kind of confluence. You can see an example of how price may become bullish (red arrow) by bouncing off the demand zone. However what if the demand zone doesn’t hold and price breaks through this. We could see a drop to about 59.60 as price takes the path represented by the black arrow. So watch what price does at the demand zone. If the demand zone doesn’t hold wait for confirmation of it becoming resistance and take a short position. There really isn’t great support in this area so it could be a lucrative trade. Thoughts and comments always welcome. Please give thumbs up if you like this idea.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by UnknownUnicorn11430563
6