CL - 77s were the HWBCrude Oil Curve remains in Backwardation out to May 2022 @ 66.71.
A clear warning sign.
We will be selling to open CL SEP as Front Month (August) approaches 73.50,
An inverse Ladder will be used off the -.382 up the -.618
The Curve supports our higher sells on the 77 Daily HWB of highs to lows,
CL traded 76.98 - Sells to open were closed @ 71.57 although the low printed
80 ticks lower, the opposing trades have been profitable on retracements.
It is growing increasingly technical with wider ranges on each successive
retracement.
Overtrading in Crude is evident as sentiment has been solidly bullish for some
time. It appears there are a number of chasers at highs - there always are.
Crude Oil leads and along with Copper, Lumber and Precious Metals - we see
early signs of weakness.
We are looking for 70.56 and then 67.61 in the next few weeks to a month.
The CL Curve supports this thesis and Trade Plan.
CL
Oil to 90$It is as simple as that. Not much more to be said than that, the chart says it all. Too many touches on the resistance and we had the most insane capitulation in 2020. The production of oil has taken a big hit and the price will keep rising as demand comes back. That's bad for growth, but we are here to make money. Hedge your fuel expenses and go long Oil!
"Be fearful when others are greedy..."Hold the line and brace for impact!
We are retesting strong supply at all time highs.
Don't be suprised of a fakeout and drop on major news.
We previously called the 4% drop on the colonial pipeline. I am predicting a 7-8% drop on the sp500 very very soon.
Oil bearish.
Crypto Bearish.
SPX Bearish.
Let's go Ninjas!
Are we in V Reversal?
All week oil after returning the mid $60's WTI has done nothing - much like the Nasdaq I wrote about. There is overhead resistance.
Today we have a little pop but are we in the midst of a V Reversal - with a lot of people thinking we are breaking out to $70 for WTI.
Right now shorts are being squeezed (if there are any).
There is a VPOC at $63.59 which is exactly at 61.8% retracement.
Monthly VWAP is at the 38% retracement.
We'll know soon if we're on way to $70 or back to $63
Time will tell but the RSI is looking weak.
SP500 Crash will ContinueMy historical analogue is predicting a small move higher to 4250 before crashing all the way down to 3920.
This drop is a 7/8% move so something significant is going to happen. The previous drop I predicted turned out to be a "cyber attack" and price dropped 5% so who knows what it could be this time.
I will be shorting the reversal and the subsequent bounces all the way down to tp.
WTI Crude - Where to next?WTI Crude - Where to next?
What a great week it has been! Time has flown by this yr - Next month we will be half way through the yr... Really great moves in G10 space and commodities as well. The FX 2021 Yr Ahead Outlook video produced those levels are coming into play! Want access? Message us privately
(An updated video will be produced soon).
Technical view:
Short term: lower 60's - 56's areas could come into play any lower price of 54-53- IF we were to decline further. However, we go above 64's areas bulls could gain back into control.
Longer term:70's areas (Depending on Commodities & DXY Performance)
Pattern wise, coming out of triangle formation.
Fundamental factors for now:
- Investors have been concerned about a upshift in market-based measurement of inflation expectations pushing upward.
- Minutes from April’s FOMC meeting, mentioning of tapering - However, remember these are just words not the execution I feel may take place at the end of the yr. (Data dependent)
Conclusion:
Overall, the developments of commodities have escalated vastly due to the dollar depreciation and various other aspects allowing indices, commodities and majors to increase. However, WTI looks a little heavy, I feel bearish momentum short term may come into play. I'd like to scale in further positions at a better price and this really depends on your strategy on the way you trade.
Key tip: When trading any product, I approach it like a coffee business you want get your produce at the best price you can by looking at the longer term picture. Don't panic, don't let your emotions get the better of you or let other peoples influence your trade ideas and guess what if it does go wrong - JOURNAL, Why did that trade not work? but never give up, because losses are part of the game.
Have a great week end.
Trade Journal
(Just trade ideas, not recommendations)
Crude oil. Wait for price to come to you.Whenever price for an instrument is accumulating we make to setups, long and short. Because let’s be real, no one know which direction it going to break. We can have a bias as I do,but really just never know. When a trend is happening this is different. You can be more successful picking direction and say trend is your friend in ick a reversal. But consolidation is more or last a crap shoot.
So here crude is accumulating. So I set up dondition where I enter long or where I enter short these levels are 65.60 and 65.14 respectfully. Also shown is tp 1 for both sides. My bias is short ( yea, I know) because condition overbought and price needs to get past strong Hull MA. But either way I am ready for a front entry (long) or rear entry (short) as they are called for contingent setups.
Safe and happy trading!
💜 Ms Bunny.
Exctrene bullish on oil. Trading USOIL to 100 usd!Good day everyone,
I'm very bullish on oil. I'm day-trading oil futures contracts upcoming months till it reached around 100 usd.
- The reason why I'm so bullish on it:
From TA perspective: We did break and hold above a huge wedge. And we're looking for new highs now.
From fundamental perspective:
- OPEC agreed to not raise oil production upcoming months;
- Saudi Arabic is not increasing their oil production as they did in the past against OPEC agreements;
- Current oil production is far lower than oil production before the corona crisis;
- Oil demand in China, US and especially India is rising quickly;
- Corona vaccins starting to pay-off with boosts traveling, economics and production.
Conclusion: My expectation is that the oil demand will be way higher than the oil production. The agreement of the OPEC for not increasing oil production will create a shortage in oil. This with will push the OIL price to new highs.
First an second target hit for Crude oil.See prior link below
I found that that making a setup with a trigger for both long and short makes me to not have a bias. I do what my set up says. In this trade my long trigger was hit so I took the trade and it worked out great. It is hard to go wrong with doing a short and long setup. Then you don’t worry about direction.
Let me know how you decide when your trigger is pulled.
❤️ Puckbunny
Two triggers for oilYou can see a symmetrical triangle has formed indicating a break out may happen in either direction.
Go long with the targets sas shown if it breaks above red resistance
Go short with targets as shown if it breaks below red support.
This is my plan. Just waiting like a snake hunting prey.
Puckbunny ♥️