$65 is our Downside Target in CrudeOn Monday CL sold off hard and we landed perfectly at our high volume area at $68. The next such target is $65 and now that we have turned bearish I'm looking at a sell-off into that level.
CL
Crude Oil - Poised for Short-Term LossesBig move down in Crude, on reports Libya is reopening some ports,
trade war fears, and possibility of the US allowing some country exemptions to Iran’s
oil sanction driving price drop.
Look for 71.00 to hold as resistance for a push towards 70.00 intially.
Possible Long From Support In August WTI Crude (CL)If there has been such a large one week draw on supply, then why are WTI prices heading south? The big reason is news out of Saudi Arabia. Production for June spiked significantly, upwards of 500,000 barrels per day. Traders have latched on to this piece of news, predicting a glut of oil to hit the market in coming months.
As a result, we may get a shot to take a long from support on the daily time frame. Here it is:
1)Entry: Buy $70.91
2)Stop Loss: $70.44
3)Profit Target: $71.38
4)Risk Vs Reward Ratio: 1/1
This trade is a bit of a home run, as the stop loss is considerable. Keep a close eye on your leverage. The time table for this play is extensive, so it will stay on the board until the Friday close.
Crude Oil - Libya keeps the bias intactCrude Oil up on story from Economic Times: Libya declared force majeure on significant amounts of its supply – disruptions to Libyan supplies caused the move up.
We are approaching the first targets for the week, and support should come in around 74.00.
CL_WTI_ The price of crude will rise after the opec summitWe await the summit statement.
Expected a return of the WTI to 68.50
WTI Crude ABCD Bear CL had some nice price action this week to complete required fib level for leg C of an AB=CD pattern.
See the chart for details but its pretty straight forward. We have room to test the 67.70 price point but that just pushed the target price further down.
GLTU!
Crude Oil - First Target Met, Bias remains LongWe continue to hold our long Crude view, as we are pressuring 67.00 this morning again and look poised to break through it.
THe rise has been volatile so also trail stop/scale out here as a precautionary measure.
Crude Oil retracement in bull trendThere is pretty strong bull trend in CL. after short selloff there are perfect opportunity to jump in. But there are strong resistance 70.50 on Monthly chart
Crude Oil - Bias turning bullishIraq's Oil Minister gave Crude a boost yesterday. With a close above 66.00, Crude looks poised
for further gains.
Gold / XAUUSD / GC - Looking to short from bearish pennantGold has formed a bearish pennant pattern just below the resistance level of 1300-1305. I expect a price break out sometime in the next day or two. There are two ways to enter this pattern, once is on a break down of the pattern by entering short, the other is waiting for a false break up and then entering short on a pull back. A false break is a much better setup and would offer a better risk reward trade with higher chance of success, at around a 1 : 3.5 Risk : Reward ratio. Without the false break and price simply falling through the bottom there is always a chance of a throwback, when price breaks down but then immediately pulls back in, essentially faking out the bears. While the latter setup is more risky, it is still tradable with the right trade management techniques. The near term price target would be 1165 and key support at 1135 for a more a more aggressive price target.
CL To Hit ~80$ In SeptemberCrude Oil (CL) futures look well positioned to start a new 4/5 month rally to ~80$.
Crude Oil - Short Bias IntactOur bearish call on Crude Oil is being proven correct as prices push through
yesterday's lows and head towards 64.00.
Immediate resistance is 65.00/20 zone.
Area to go long on crudeIf another wave down occurs, I am eyeing this red box for a high probability reversal. Will look to see volume spiking up near the blue support line on intraday hourly charts.
Might take a week or two to play out, just observing for now.
Long opportunity to next sell zone1. Seller culmination.
2. Sellers become weak.
3. Strong buy support.
Enter 66.98
SL 66.41
TP 68.01
USDWTI - Price has reach critical support areaUSDWTI blew through near term support last Friday and has now fallen to a critical support. Due to the importance of this price level we may see it hold where the near term support levels were not able to hold. If your a contrarian trader and believe that this key support level will give you increased probability of price holding and popping higher in the near future this may be the right time to buy. There are a lot of different strategies to go long oil, a very bullish strategy would be to go long OIL or the futures. A neutral to bullish strategy would be to sell puts in OIL or XLE to collect the high premium that the options are fetching and profit from any move higher.
Long CL Swing TradeI'm in NYSE:CL at $62.00.
It counts with everything i look for in a swing trade.
Positive RSI and MACD about to crossover = Bullish.
I plan on taking profits at +- $68.
It somewhat a value play, due to that i believe the stock is very cheap right now.
Share your opinion, comments and questions. Good Luck!
Risk Level: Low - Moderate.
I will keep updating my position.
CL!Sometimes I enjoy zooming out to go pattern hunting. Found an interesting pattern with WTI that 8/10 times May into June was the end of a trend and the beginning of a reversal. With strong Bullish momentum leading into June '18 one does wonder if the leading average will prevail or if momentum will carry itself through the tumult of June?
Chow!
CL - long opportunityWe see that the CL is in strong trend and see the breakout of balance also. And now you can buy CL at border of minicosolidation "Buy1" (69.9) with "Stop1" or wait when the price will retest the border of the balance "Buy2" (69.32) with stop under the middle level of the balance (68.12)
CL - sell opportunityWe saw a false breakout of the balance. For now we can wait for the retest of higher balance level and sell at 65.58 with stop 66.57
The target is the middle level of the balance (62.63 - target1) or the lower balance leve (59.09 - target2)
Trade the Price! Hold Long Until Trend BreakWTI Jun18 CL1! 20 Apr $68.06
May closed Friday with a final OI of 3.7k contracts.
June volume was down 140k on the day and OI reduced 3.1k
Generally volume will trade lower for the remainder of this month then start to pick up early May and increase leading into contract close on May 22.
So I would expect price to fade during this month, in the absence of an event, and then rally during May, but remember everything is relative. So fades and rallies will be around significant support and resistance and what price is doing - Not supposed to do.
Right now, the uptrend is holding. My drawn rectangle is the activity area. Price needs to break and close below the uptrend line to suggest down side. Otherwise it is still up. It is dangerous to pre-empt a change in trend! Don't do it! wait until the upward sloping line breaks with a close.
If it does break, first support is at $66.60 then the swing low at $65.56.
Fibs are at (69.56 - 61.81):= 7.75 * 0.5 := $65.68; $64.77; $66.60 which align with Supports.
Above major resistance is at a stratospheric $73.75, with secondary resistance at $69.70 and a significant $71.30
I favour the downside initially, but for once, I will follow my own advice. I have outlined our trading strategy and plans in an earlier post - trade the channel.
Now you know what I know. Trade using your brains and what you see, not emotion nor opinion.
... just another 2c worth ..
Oil: I'm neutral on it for the year...I've been contemplating wether oil can go higher or not from here but given the sentiment I had made a guess for price action, that would let it reach the monthly target on time, before collapsing. Longer term, It might be an excellent buy once it does retest support below, but for now it's not something I'd reccomend buying. I do like the $CAD long, and it shows a big spread vs oil, so I keep exposure via that trade, but oil is only 4% of Canada's GDP, so it's not such a big drag on it if it doesn't go up.
I'll be watching it from afar, and reccomend doing the same this year.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
WTI Crude - AB=CD Bull with rangesOil "appears" toppy but is strong trading week of 04/15.
After a $3 pullback week of 04/01 WTI saw a significant jump despite inventory numbers proving Bearish week of 04/08. This was accelerated due to obvious fundamental forces. But also, see my prior study below and notice how the technical's were demanding a $67 price point before last weeks Syria drama took front row. I personally snagged 5 contracts long 04/06 @ Friday close.
Aside from obvious API/EIA numbers this week I will be paying attention to anything fundamental related as it seems to be in the drivers seat. Every foot in the mouth or economy related news item should create good opportunity to scalp momentum strengthening/shifts in the order book. I will not be holding anything long without a 100+ tick buffer. and take profit stop. Pay attention to the provided fib levels and think about where the market can move above or below each price point. For newer traders sometimes its good to just sit and watch because things can get unreasonably volatile between 9-11am EST.
GLTU
