CL on a larger TF / Start of crucial two months for USOILThis shows what, in my opinion, CL might do in the next couple of months. CL will reveal its hand on the day of the OPEC meeting (whatever people think, OPEC WILL create a strong reaction). After that meeting, the candle we get is going to show many things. However, I believe movement after the meeting, into summer, will be much more interesting and violent. It will be very strong, giving us a new HOY or a new LOY. During these months, I will provide maps daily / weekly showing what I think will be happening on smaller TF's using primarily Andrews, Indis and PA.
A: If we manage to get above the 1y TL, in my opinion it will drift around it until the OPEC meeting. Then we might see a surge to the TL5, quite possibly will try to take it out. If price manage to get above it, I believe new HOY will appear. If the OPEC candle will be anything like November, it is more than likely.
B: If we don't retake the 1y TL2, might retest the low (and TL3) around 44.60, which would on a bigger TF make a double bottom of sort. Then surge into OPEC meeting and the decision in the blue cluster.
Looking a bit further ahead, at July, that cluster (blue circle) might be very interesting, and a likely target for consolidation before the most important move in 2017 (after all the geopolitical nonsense and OPEC). If that TL5 isn't taken out with the OPEC candle, it might provide the roof for price and a consolidation zone.
CL
CL daily candle with higher highsCL Tagged the midline of the fork early in the AM today. It appears to still be bullish. Thinking it will test the midline again and zoom through it.
Tomorrow, may come back and retest the midline of the fork @ $48.2 and head up for a test of the $50.2 area.
CCI is still heading toward the zero line for a cross.
Thinking this whole drop this morning to was to get SPX down to $2384 and then to have continued strength to push it up to new highs.
CL on solid support, waiting for instructionsCL tested the 25% area of the fork and should now be headed up to the midline (50%) area for a test. CCI is currently at -46 and should start to cross the zero line to continue heading over 100. Should see more bullish continuity during the E I A report tomorrow on 5/10/17 and also on Thursday when the OPEC monthly report is released.
CL - Crude with three potential targetsThis is a wild ride, but we are not unhappy don't we ;-)
The prior LT chart gave us a great indication about the fall.
A closer looks reveal that the drop from above is the logical swing that markets do.
Targets?
Well, we have a couple of them as you see on the chart.
See the circles? One at the A/R-Shift, and two other ones at the different centerlnes.
First I even expect a pullback, since markets swing.
The yellow, thin down sloping mini Forks centerline is key!
If price jumps above it, we can expect a bigger pullback.
If price just test/retest it, then another entry is praying to be taken.
So, let's be patient, ride the grumpy bear and see if we can load up some.
P!
CL - Crude on a very longterm view.The blue centerline was respected very good.
The white U-MLH is not bad too.
There is a high chance that price will meet the centerline...hoooly...how about below 25, or even 20?
Looks totally crazy, yes, to me too ;-)
But hey, we follow the path of price & forks.
We act upon what we see, not what we wish to see...veeery hard sometimes hehe...
Put context around it - it makes charts & price action more clear.
P!
long CL at lower parallelCl is at its extreme within this upsloping median set and has made a higher low after reaching the pendulum median line. This offers a very nice long opportunity with a relatively cheap stop.
Target 1: Coil (red box)
Target 2: Expansion topside as projected by expansion downside from the coil.
Target 3: Upper MLH
CL - Crude on a test/retest bevor the breakdown?Here we have it picture perfect!
On the left side, you can see the big sine-wave-swing.
These sine-wave swings often get broken fist, before
a further movement in the original direction.
And so it happened.
Price was not able to move further north.
Oil organisations did all to keep price up - even manipulating in the news...
As I wrote in the previous post: The market makes the price, not a organisation and not even a talking head. We must understand that the value of everything is determined by the trust and distrust of us, the people, the consumer, the markets!
In my last posts you could (and thanks to TradingView you still can) follow my analysis and see how it evolved. It's not about my analysis - it's about the framework I use to be able to make such projections and forecasts. Everyone can do this by learning it...
Back to the chart:
So, we broke the big white centerline.
As the framework dictates, price comes back to where it broke out and test/retest the centerline again.
If price fails to jump back above the centerline, then we have a very high chance to go down to the next line, the L-MLH.
If you are interested in more information about the Fork Trading Framework and how to apply it to the markets, just drop me a private message. I keep you informed about my new course material, coaching and services.
Peace!