$74 could be pivotal for WTI over the near termCommodities were broadly lower yesterday with the CRB index falling to a 4-day low. Geopolitical tensions are rising following Russia’s decision to back out of a key grain deal which allowed Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea. Weak data from China and news that Libya will restart oil production also saw WTI fall for a second day.
What has caught our eye is that WTI played very nicely with its round numbers yesterday, printing the high of the day at $76, a lower high at $75 and lows around $74. It is also considering the break of a trendline, although unless volatility picks up it runs the risk of moving sideways through it (which is not in the spirit of a trendline break).
Still, $74 appears to be a pivotal level over the near-term. And if prices print a minor bounce, we’d still consider shorts below $75 with a view for it to trade to $73. Take note that it is contract expiration today so we may see spills of undesirable volatility, but overall we want to see which way momentum takes this market next.
