Crude Oil Futures WTI (CL1!)
WTI rallies form range lows - break of $70 up next?WTI crude posted a strong rally from the $67 support level thanks to another strong drawdown of crude inventories. The fact it rallied over 3% despite the stronger US dollar and hawkish comments from Powell makes us wonder if it could have broken above $70 were the dollar not to dominate FX majors on Wednesday. Still, prices are trading within a range between $67 - $72/73, and whilst prices action remains choppy o the daily chart there are some opportunities to trade the range on lower timeframes.
A triple bottom has formed on the daily along with a 2bar bullish reversal (bullish piercing line). String volumes accompanied the rally from the $67.50 area to show demand around those lows and the OBV (on balance volume) broke above its previous swig high, which hints at a breakout for prices.
Prices are drifting higher at the open, but we’d consider bullish setups above or around the daily pivot point or 10/20 EMAs if prices pullback for a potential swing-trade long to $70.A break above which brings the resistance zones around $71 and $72 into focus.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/29/23For Thursday, the 67.08 level can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 72.77 is attainable by the end of next week, possibly yielding 77.17 by the end of July.
Upside Thursday, 69.95 can contain session strength, while closing above 69.95 signals 72.77 within 2-3 days, where the market can top out into later next week and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 77.17 within 3-5 more days.
Downside Thursday, closing below 67.08 indicates 64.10 within 3-5 days, 62.14 longer-term support within 2-3 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/27/23For Tuesday, the 67.08 level can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 72.92 is attainable within the week, possibly yielding 77.00 within 2-3 weeks.
Upside Tuesday, 70.67 can contain session strength, while closing above 70.67 signals 72.92 within 2-3 days, where the market can top out through the balance of the week and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 77.00 within 3-5 more days.
Downside Tuesday, closing below 67.08 indicates 64.67 within the week, 62.14 longer-term support within 1-2 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity
#WTI Update #OOTT #USOIL #Brent I continue to expect a sharp, short-lived rally in the near term, despite the recent drops in oil prices making me feel uncertain.
The weakest point of my charts is - waves wxy of (b) and [w ] [x ] [y ] of ii are too complex. Nevertheless, it is my best scenario for now.
If the price exceeds $83.4 or wave high I provide a couple of alternatives in my Weekly Newsletter.
I see no bearish scenarios that allow keeping the previous labelling (which I have comfort with). Therefore, I will refrain from further chart manipulation. I will consider immediate bearish scenarios only if price breaks lower and I have to stop loss my trades.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/26/23A two-sided framework continues through summer between 62.14 long-term support, and 82.21 long-term resistance, both regions able to contain seasonal activity.
Downside, a weekly settlement below 62.14 indicates 53.87 within several months, longer term Fibonacci support able to contain selling into later year.
Upside, a weekly settlement above 82.21 indicates 94.67 within several months, able to contain annual highs.
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For Monday, the 67.08 level can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 72.87 attainable within the week, possibly yielding 76.91 within 2 - 3 weeks.
Upside Monday, 70.67 can contain session strength, while closing above 70.67 signals 72.87 within 2 - 3 days, where the market can top out through the balance of the week and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 76.91 within 3 - 5 more days.
Downside Monday, closing below 67.08 indicates 64.67 within the week, 62.14 longer-term support within 1 - 2 weeks, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity.
The Downward Trajectory: Understanding Weak Oil Market DynamicsOil looks weak. It seems extremely weak, mainly because production hasn't come down. Chinese demand is still low and might never reach its ATHs, but this, along with the US refilling its SPR, can potentially send higher oil prices.
However, this is unlikely to happen before the market takes out this quadruple bottom. Until all the lows are swept, and potentially until the market trades at 43-55$, it's unlikely to see oil go up. Only those prices will make OPEC+ cut production and have 80+ as its target. Until many of these member countries feel pain, it's unlikely that oil will trade above 80$ without some other geopolitical shock.
Again, oil can trade higher, but for now, the target is 60.6$, and potentially 54.2$ is next. We can look for potential longs toward 85-100$.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/23/23For Friday, the 67.08 level can contain selling through next week, above which 73.28 attainable within a full week of activity, possibly yielding 76.98 within 2 - 3 weeks.
Upside Friday, 70.80 can contain session strength, while closing above 70.80 signals 73.28 within 2 - 3 days, able to contain buying through the balance of next week and the point to settle above for yielding the more meaningful 76.98 within 3 - 5 more days.
Downside Friday, closing below 67.08 indicates 62.14 longer-term support as a 1 - 2 week target, where the broader market can bottom out through summer activity.
Update #OIL #WTI #OOTTI do not have a good explanation of what has happened in crude and have to fall back to the previously outlined expanding diagonal scenario. This is weak, however, because it is supposed to be rare.
If it proves to be the case the price will take off with acceleration and the move up will be a 3 wave move like illustrated.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/22/23For Thursday, the 67.65 - 67.08 region can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 74.29 remains a weekly target, 76.88 attainable within 2 - 3 weeks.
Upside Thursday, 72.36 can contain intraday strength, while pushing/opening above 72.36 allows 74.29 intraday, able to contain session strength.
Closing today above 74.29 signals 76.88 within several more days, where the market can top out through next week, possibly into later July.
Downside Thursday, breaking/opening below 69.67 allows 67.65 - 67.08 intraday, able to contain selling through next week and the area to settle below for indicating 62.14 longer-term support as a 1 - 2 week target
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, 6/21/23For Wednesday, the 67.55 - 66.71 region can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 74.29 remains a weekly target, 76.78 attainable within 2 - 3 weeks.
Upside Wednesday, 72.36 can contain intraday strength, while pushing/opening above 72.36 allows 74.29 intraday, able to contain buying through the balance of the week.
Closing today above 74.29 signals 76.78 within several more days, able to contain buying through next week, possibly into later July.
Downside Wednesday, breaking/opening below 69.67 allows 67.55 - 66.71 intraday, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the area to settle below for indicating 62.14 longer-term support as a 1 - 2 week target.