Oil is staring down the barrel of a bearish breakdownA stronger USD, prospects of a deregulated oil market alongside disappointment with China stimulus and weighed on crude prices on Monday. WTI is toying with a bearish breakout of a pattern which projects a downside target around the mid 50s. But how realistic is that? Let's take a look.
MS.
Crude Oil Futures WTI (CL1!)
WTI OIL targeting the 1D MA200 at $76.50WTI Oil (USOIL) managed to close yesterday above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) despite breaking below it intraday. Even if we see a pull-back like September 25-26, Oil is more likely to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as since the August 12 High, the market is practically ranging between the Support and Resistance Zones. Our Target is $76.50.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Strong rebound on the 18 month Support.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.224, MACD = -0.080, ADX = 22.753) as it rebounded again on the S1 Zone and already reached the 1D MA50. Even though another test of the S1 Zone is possible according to the multiple tests of the May-June 2023 pattern, the upside is more likely to happen eventually through a test of the 1D MA200. Our target is limited however below the LH trendline (TP = 77.50) as we don't yet have valid grounds to extend buying above it.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Final Resistance test before $77.50WTI Crude Oil hit today the 7 day Falling Resistance. A break above it will be bullish as that has been the case on 2 similar patterns previously.
We are ahead of a Golden Cross (1h), which on the 2 previous patterns, has confirmed the uptrend.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy if the Falling Resistance breaks.
Targets:
1. 77.50 (Resistance 1).
Tips:
1. The RSI (1h) is printing a pattern similar to the September run.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Strong rebound on the Support. Buy.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL almost hit the Support A level and rebounded today.
This is the exact range where the price made a bullish reversal on October 1st and rose to a new Higher High.
Buy and target 78.00 (just under Resistance A).
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): When the Gap Will Be Filled?
I strongly believe that a huge Monday's gap will be filled.
The confirmation that I am looking for is a breakout of a resistance
line of a horizontal range on a 4H.
4H candle close above the yellow structure will indicate
the strength of the buyers and make the market finally start rising.
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Crude Oil WTI, final leg downWTI in the final leg towards long term support (62$). Around that price level, you can find multiple prior lows, the lower Mogalef volatility band, the YTD VWAP 3 SD band, and very oversold levels
Note that below that support level, there's nothing stopping the price from going down to the 43$ level, as very little volume was traded in the 40$ to 60$ range and there's no strong pivot points.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: 1H Death Cross suggests another Low is coming.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.281, MACD = -0.560, ADX = 26.062) with the bearish bias evident as in the last 3 weeks the price is trading inside a Channel Down. The formation of a 1H Death Cross earlier today, draws comparisons with the October 15th one. Both price actions found a temporary support on the 1.382 Fibonacci level at the time of the Death Cross but the 1H RSI was rebounding on a bullish divergence. We expect the price to extend replicating that bearish wave and approach the 1.618 Fib eventually (TP = 66.00).
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WTI CRUDE OIL Every pull back inside this Channel Up is a buy.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL is trading inside a 1hour Channel Up.
Having crossed above the 1hour MA50, it is now expected to support this new bullish wave.
The 1hour MACD is already on a Bullish Cross, confirming the bullish wave.
Buy and target 73.50 (+5.73% rise).
Previous chart:
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CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bearish Trend Continues
WTI Crude Oil may continue falling after a test of a key daily resistance.
A breakout of a support line of a bearish flag gives us a strong bearish confirmation.
With a high probability, the price will drop to 68.9 level.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Keeps respecting the long term Support Zone.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 48.339, MACD = -0.320, ADX = 27.988) as it is recovering from last week's red candle that almost touched the S1 Zone. As long this holds, WTI will be bullish on the medium term at least, as on the long term the formation of the 1W Death Cross is bearish. The presence of the LH trendline doesn't allow much room for higher targets and since the previous rebound on the S1 Zone (December 11th 2023) came close to the 0.786 Fibonacci level, our target is in the vicinity of those (TP = 78.00).
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WTI CRUDE OIL & BRENT OIL Weekly Outlook: Wait For SELL Setup!This weekly forecast is for Oct 21 - 25th.
US & UK Oil have been up and down throughout this Mid East crises. WIth a strong bearish candle and close last week, the indications are that the market has taken a bearish turn.
I will be watching the market closely for a pullback to the newly formed Daily -FVG for a high
probability short setup.
Take caution, day traders. As there will be buys to take as price retraces up, but I would urge you to remain patient and wait for the HP sells.
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
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