WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 2/16/23For Thursday, 77.04 can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which 83.59 remains a 1 - 2 week target.
Upside Thursday, 81.63 can contain session strength, while closing above 81.63 signals the targeted 83.59 within 2 - 3 days, able to contain weekly buying pressures when test.
The 83.59 formation can be considered the start of a wide zone of longer-term resistance up to 86.22 that may absorb buying through March, once tested the market prone to falling back over that time horizon.
Downside Thursday, closing below 77.04 indicates 75.32 tomorrow, where the market can bottom out into next week.
A daily settlement below 75.32 indicates 69.27 long-term support within a full week of activity.
Crude Oil Futures WTI (CL1!)
Crude Oil Futures ( CL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish RiseTitle: Crude Oil Futures ( CL1! ), H4 Potential for Bullish Rise
Type: Bullish Rise
Resistance: 85.61
Pivot: 80.62
Support: 77.31
Preferred case: Looking at the H4 chart, my overall bias for CL1! is bullish due to the current price being above the Ichimoku cloud, indicating a bullish market. If this bullish momentum continues, expect price to continue heading towards the resistance at 85.61, where the overlap resistance are.
Alternative scenario: Price may head back down to retest the support at 77.31, where the 38.2% Fibonacci line is.
Fundamentals: There are no major news.
The Oil WarOil is strictly tied to dollar price (petrodollar).
World investors/consumers are under tremendous pressure, with absolute oil price exploding, coupled with an explosive dollar. They have to pay the cost for both...
US investors enjoy a very competitive oil price (compared to treasuries). This year an investment in USOIL was very negatively performing compared to treasuries.
Do note that there is a discrepancy between consumer oil (USOIL) and investment oil (USOIL/modified-yields).
Rate hikes are not for inflation, they are for economic war advantage. During a war period, and in a deglobalized world, you need substantial purchasing power to import, and selectively export goods.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 2/14/23For Tuesday, 77.57 can contain selling into later week, above which 83.51 remains a 3 - 5 day target.
Upside Tuesday, 81.63 can contain session strength, while closing above 81.63 signals the targeted 83.51 within 1 - 2 days, able to contain weekly buying pressures.
The 83.51 formation can also be considered the start of a wide zone of longer-term resistance up to 86.33 that can absorb buying through March trade, once tested the market prone to falling back over that time horizon.
Downside Tuesday, closing below 77.57 indicates a good weekly high, 75.12 then likely within several days where the market can bottom out through the balance of the week.
A daily settlement below 75.12 indicates 69.27 long-term support within a full week of activity.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 2/10/23For Friday, 78.11 can contain buying into the next week, below which 73.58 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 days.
Downside Friday, 76.32 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 76.32 signal 74.91, where the market can place a daily low.
A settlement below 74.91 indicate 73.58 on Monday, able to contain selling through next week.
Upside Friday, pushing/opening above 78.11 allows 81.53 intraday, while closing above 78.11 indicates 83.42 by the end of next week, the start of a wide zone of longer-term resistance up to 86.43 able to contain buying into spring trade.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Key Levels to Watch 🛢
Here is my latest structure analysis for WTI Crude Oil.
Support 1: 72.3 - 73.2 area
Support 2: 70.0 - 71.4 area
Resistance 1: 81.7 - 85.2 wide supply area
Consider these structure for pullback / breakout trading.
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WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 2/9/23For Thursday, 78.38 can contain buying through the balance of the week, below which 74.12 is attainable over the next 3 - 5 days.
Downside Thursday, 76.30 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 76.30 allow 74.12 - 74.81 intraday, able to contain selling through next week, and above which 83.37 is attainable over the next 2 - 3 weeks.
Upside Thursday, pushing/opening above 78.38 allows 81.53 intraday, while closing above 78.38 indicates 83.37 by the end of next week, the start of a wide zone of longer-term resistance up to 86.48 able to contain buying into spring trade.
WTI OIL: This uptrend has more fuel.As WTI Oil hit technical neutrality on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 51.471, MACD = -0.510, ADX = 37.488), it reached Pivot1 (P1) and the 4H MA200 to pause and consolidate. As with the previous two rallies, we expect this to have some more fuel left and we are aiming at the 1D MA100 (TP = 80.50) that rejected the last uptrend 3 times.
After that, our sell trigger is a break below P1, and we will aim at the top of S1 (TP = 73.50). We are not waiting for the extension to R1 but rather will wait for the HH to break (bullish trigger) and aim below R2 (TP = 87.00).
P.S. Perfect execution of our last Oil signal:
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WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 2/8/23For Wednesday, 74.70 can contain selling through next week, possibly through February trade, above which 83.33 longer-term resistance is attainable over the next 3 - 5 weeks.
Upside Wednesday, 77.46 can contain intraday strength, beyond which 78.64 is likely intraday and able to contain buying through the balance of the week, once tested the market susceptible to falling back to 74.70 within 3 - 5 days.
On the other hand, a settlement today above 78.64 should yield 83.33 within 1 - 2 weeks, the start of a wide zone of longer-term resistance up to 86.54 able to contain buying into spring trade.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 2/7/23For Tuesday, 74.60 can contain buying through next week, possibly through February trade, below which 68.84 long-term support remains a 1 – 2 week objective, able to contain selling through spring.
Downside Tuesday, 71.43 can contain session weakness, while closing today below 71.43 indicates the targeted 68.84 within several days, where the broader market can bottom out through spring.
Upside Tuesday, pushing/opening above 74.60 signals 75.19, able to contain session strength and an upward pivot point into later week, with a settlement above 75.19 signaling 78.91 within 3 - 5 days, where the market can top out into next week. A daily settlement above 78.91 indicates 83.55 longer-term resistance within 1 - 2 weeks.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 2/3/23For Friday, 74.39 can contain selling through next week, possibly through February trade, once tested the narrowing 84.37 - 86.70 region attainable within 3 - 5 weeks.
Upside Friday, 77.06 can contain session strength, while closing above 77.06 indicate 79.87 within several days, where the market can top out through the balance of next week.
A daily settlement above 79.86 signals 84.37 within 3 - 5 days, the start of a narrowing zone of longer-term resistance up to 86.70 able to contain buying into spring.
Downside Friday, closing below 74.39 indicates 68.42 within 1 - 2 weeks, long-term support able to contain selling through spring.
WTI Supply&Demand Swing Trade SetupWe saw price come up near the supply zone multiple times this week but fail to close above or even inside of it.
Most of my analysis is already on the charts. Do note that there is a minor demand zone around the 76.50 level, not drawn on the charts, where we may see a bounce. This could be a TP1 for some traders and I would likely move my stop near this level if price continues downward after the bounce.
This setup will likely take a week+ to play out; if it does.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 2/2/23For Thursday, both 79.21 and 76.38 can firmly contain intraday activity, beyond which the next notable level is attainable intraday.
Downside Thursday, breaking/opening below 76.38 signals 74.29, able to contain selling through next week, once tested 84.37 attainable within several weeks.
A daily settlement below 74.29 would indicate 68.42 over the next 1 - 2 weeks, long-term support able to contain selling through spring.
Upside Thursday, pushing/opening above 79.21 allows 81.53, able to contain daily buying pressures.
Closing today above 81.53 signals 84.37 within several days, where the market can top out through next week and the beginning of a narrowing zone of longer-term resistance up to 86.75 able to contain buying into spring trade.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 2/1/23For Wednesday, 78.39 can contain selling through the balance of the week, above which 84.24 is attainable by the end of next week.
Upside Wednesday, 80.26 can contain intraday strength, beyond which 81.77 is likely intraday and able to contain session strength.
Closing today above 81.77 signals 84.24 within several days, able to contain buying through next week and the start of a narrowing zone of long-term resistance up to 86.80 that can absorb buying into spring trade.
Downside Wednesday, breaking/opening below 78.39 allows 76.61, while closing today below 78.39 should yield 74.19 by the end of next week, able to contain weekly selling pressures and the point to settle below for indicating 68.42 long-term support within several more weeks.
USOIL 1st FEBRUARY 2023USOIL is expected to be sideways within the ascending triangle area. The price has a possibility to reach the resistance area of the 8th touch. Breakout or rebound scenarios can occur at the touch point of the trendline, but if the price turns out to be a breakout from the support/resistance area. a big trend will likely occur. The existence of horizontal support and resistance is difficult to observe, but it is quite valid with the help of the stochastic 5 3 3 indicator where the area often rebounds.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 1/31/23For Tuesday, 78.40 can contain buying through the balance of the week, below which 74.08 is likely by the end of next week, where the market can bottom out into March expiration, and from there trade higher into that timeframe.
Downside Tuesday, a daily settlement below 74.08 indicates 68.42 within several more weeks, long-term weekly chart support able to contain broader market selling through spring trade.
Upside Tuesday, pushing/opening above 78.40 allows 80.26 intraday, while closing today above 78.40 indicates a good low for the week, 82.25 then attainable within several days, 84.16 perhaps by the end of next week, able to contain weekly buying pressures when tested.