WTI OIL: Strong bottom formation. 4H MA50 and MA200 eyed.Massive development yesterday as Oil broke even below the 76.20 Support of the September 26th Low and reached as low as 75.30 before a massive rebound back to 80.00 that almost closed the day with no losses. This turned 4H neutral again (RSI = 45.032, MACD = -1.560, ADX = 33.080). Since the price broke above the 1H MA50 (yellow) again, we have a confirmed bullish continuation and the target is the 4H MA50 (blue) and 4H MA200 (orange) in extension.
Watch how this is so far the very same Inverted Head and Shoulders bottom into rebound formation as on the September 26th Low. That rebound hit the 4H MA50 and 4H MA200 and formed a Resistance level at 93.65 that was pushed to 93.75 on the November 7th High. We can't yet call for such a high test this time as there is the 1D MA100 (red) posing as a Resistance first, just above the 4H MA200.
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Crude Oil Futures WTI (CL1!)
Oil Outlook 2022 🛢️With global political tensions on the rise, the expectation for crude oil price seemed to be bullish across the mainstream media. Everyone seems to think that war=high crude oil prices. This is true. However OPEC+ just said they will likely be upping production in Jan 23 so price has been plummeting.
I was actually surprised that price wasn't moving higher yet before this announcement, however algobuddy was telling us on the weekly that it's still in bear mode so I have been weary of long positions on my short term charts. I try to stick with the overall weekly or monthly trend.
I also keep remembering when the US president said he'd like to see price of oil closer to $72 before he stops emptying reserves, and when a US president says something like this I like to think there are enough strings to pull that he can make it happen.
This seems to be working out, as price is almost down to that exact number now, especially after OPEC's announcement.
I do notice a broadening formation happing on the weekly chart right now around this area. This gives me the feeling that a big slingshot move up is coming. I'll keep my head on a swivel, but until we get a weekly algobuddy bull signal I am staying on the bear side for now.
IF the talk of WW3 turns more and more likely into becoming reality, then I will start to think of a move to the upside. IF weekly candle crosses and closes back above the algobuddy thick ribbon line then I'll turn bullish. It's already made a new low and peeked below the previous weeks bar and is now back above its low. This is bullish for me, however if price continues to make new lows and more production ramp announcements I will jump on shorts.
Looking forward to seeing how this week candle closes. If red, then we can see more downside move.
Stay solvent my friends 💪
AlgoBuddy
Oil forks suggest a more sustainable bull trend has bee set. The fork from the 2008 bull run was too steep to hold up. However, the recent run seems a much more sustainable grade, and lines up well with past moves. Perhaps the fork channel widens more here soon, but this looks about right here. The fibs are pretty close. I doubt we see $50/brrl again soon. Should stay above the median for quite some time.
WTI OIL: Can have a huge upswing long term.Crude Oil seems to be virtually repeating since November 2020 the past Cycle that started after the January 2009 recession bottom. All levels are the same and even though this March 2022 top smashed through the symmetric Resistance Zone due to the war in Ukraine, it pulled back below it.
Right now the price is rebounding on the Huge Pivot line as in August 2011 (see the Pivot acted as a Resistance on October 2018) after being rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue line). The RSI is also a copy paste of that period. The model suggests that WTI oil as long as it closes this week above the 1W MA100 (green), it should break above the 1W MA50 again and test the Resistance Zone again. There is also a Rising Support (Higher Lows) below since March 2021, which was also present from July 2009 to August 2014. The strongest technical support is the 1W MA200 (orange). It will be really interesting to see how the market handles this input.
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CRUDE Oil down trending again... Crude weekly points to more downside. Breaking below 76, would be bad news and 67 would be the downside target at the end of the year.
Technical indicator, MACD crossed down in bearish territory, and the VolDiv indicator turned red as it heads to the zeroline. Very dangerous when it does this...
Expect more downside to the last low at 76. Critical support level there.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/17/22For Thursday, 89.25 can contain session strength, below which 82.84 is attainable over the next several days, where the market can bottom out into next week.
A settlement today below 82.84 signals 78.36 within several days, the start of a range of meaningful support down to 76.48 able to contain selling through the balance of the year.
Upside Thursday, closing above 89.25 signals 95.06 - 95.21 within several days, where the market can top out through the balance of the year, once tested the market prone to falling back to 76.48-78.36 within 3-5 weeks.
BLUE LINE - Last Support For Crude OilIs this it? Headed into the end of 2023 - are we going to see Crude Oil fall below $76 ppb as COVID & economic concerns trap the global economy into a contraction phase?
My research suggests Crude Oil will attempt to find support near $63 to $65 before attempting to bottom. From current levels, this suggests a -$30 ppb downward price trend is likely.
Two things are likely driving this trend:
Lack of global demand
Inflation/Price concerns
Has the current Flag/Pennant reached the APEX and is price attempting to break downward?
Time will tell...
Follow my research.
CL Daily up TrendThe CL daily time frame broke the short term
down trend line and has entered into the buy
zone. The market has an up Fibonacci with an
extension price point 104.39 about +1,909 ticks
above the market. As long as the market stays
in the buy zone above the short term down trend
line. It will be a good idea to turn to the one
hour time frame and to look for low prices in the
buy zone.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/16/22For Wednesday, 89.46 can contain session strength, below which 82.77 is attainable over the next several days, where the market can bottom out into next week.
A settlement today below 82.77 signals 78.29 within several days, the start of a range of meaningful support down to 76.48 able to contain selling through the balance of the year.
Upside Wednesday, closing above 89.46 signals 95.06 - 95.35 within several days, where the market can top out through the balance of the year, once tested the market prone to falling back to 76.48-78.29 within 3-5 weeks.
On the other hand, a settlement above 95.35 indicates 103.38 within several weeks, the broader market in reach of 110.10 over the next several months.
WTI OIL: Trapped between the 1W MA50 and MA100The WTI Crude Oil has been giving the best set-up to swing traders as it has been ranging within the 1W MA50 (blue) and 1W MA100 (green) since August 31st. Great low risk high return opportunities exist within for as long as it lasts.
On the longer term, the September 26th bounce on the 1W MA100 was on the rising Support (Higher Lows) that has been in effect since March 2021. In fact even the 1W RSIhit and rebounded on its declining (Lower Lows) Support, with the previous two times (December 6th 2021 and August 23rd 2021) matching Oil's last two bottoms. The MACD needs to complete its bullish cross to confirm a new sustainable rise though, which will most likely be if Oil breaks above the 1W MA50. That would target the dashed rising Resistance (Higher Highs) that was the technical Resistance before the Ukraine/ Russia war distorted the price action.
On a different occasion, if the price breaks below the March 2021 rising Support, Oil could target the 1W MA200 (orange) for the first time since February 01 2021.
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WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/15/22For Tuesday, 90.29 can contain session strength, below which 82.70 is attainable within the week, where the market can bottom out through Friday.
A settlement today below 82.70 signals 78.22 within several days, the start of a range of meaningful support down to 76.48 able to contain selling through the balance of the year.
Upside Tuesday, closing above 90.29 signals 95.06 - 95.49 within several days, able to contain buying through the balance of the year, and if settled above a bullish continuation region into January activity.
OIL Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022OIL Weekly Forecast 14-18 November 2022
Currently the implied volatility for this asset is around 6.59%, up from 6.36% of last week.
From volatility percentile, point of view, we are currently on 66th from ATR and 66th from OVX index.
With this volatility percentile values into account we can expected on average that the weekly candle is going to be:
4.56% for bullish
5.01% for bearish
With the current IV, we can expect with a 71.0% probability that the market is not going to close either above or below the next channel:
TOP: 94.68
BOT: 83.35
Lastly, based on previous calculations, we have:
31% to hit the previous weekly high of 93.8
65% to hit the previous weekly low of 84.65
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/14/22For Monday, 88.20 can contain selling into later week, above which the 95.06-95.63 region is attainable over the next 3-5 days.
Upside Monday, 90.80 can contain intraday strength, beyond which 93.24 is attainable intraday and likely to contain session strength.
A settlement above 93.24 indicates 95.06-95.63 tomorrow, able to contain buying out through December, once tested 76.48-78.15 longer-term support attainable over the same time horizon.
Downside Monday, breaking/opening below 88.20 allows 85.83 intraday, while closing today below 88.20 will keep 82.63 in reach over the next several days, able to contain selling through the balance of the week and the point to settle below for signaling 76.48-78.15 within 2-3 days.
Crude Oil (WTI) Bearish Outlook For Next Week 🛢️
Hey traders,
WTI Crude Oil broke and closed below a support line of a bearish flag pattern this week.
The price is retesting its lower boundary now.
I believe that the market will most likely drop next week.
Goal for sellers - 85.75 structure.
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Oil Makes Another Attempt at the $90'sOil has pivoted from lows and made another run for the $90's. We have broken through $88.74, and fallen just short of $90.06, the barrier to the $90 handle. A strong rally in risk-on assets has benefited oil. If we are able to continue the rally, we could hit $94 again. If we retrace, expect support at $87.21 or $85.55.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/11/22For Friday, 88.34 can contain buying through next week, below which 82.56 remains a 3-5 day target, the 76.97-78.08 region expected over the next 2-3 weeks.
Downside Friday, 84.72 can contain intraday weakness, below which 82.56 is attainable intraday and able to contain selling into next week.
A daily settlement below 82.56 signals 78.08 within 2-3 days, the start of a range of targeted long-term support on the 76.97 able to contain selling into December activity.
Upside Friday, closing back above 88.49 will keep 95.77-96.36 long-term resistance in reach by the end of next week, where the market can top out through December, and a meaningful upside continuation region through the balance of the year.