WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/10/22For Thursday, 88.48 can contain buying through next week, below which 82.49 remains 3-5 day target, the 76.97-78.01 region expected over the next 2-3 weeks.
Downside Thursday, 84.72 can contain intraday weakness, below which 82.49 is attainable intraday and able to contain selling through the balance of the week.
A settlement today below 82.49 signals 78.01 within 1-2 days, the start of a range of targeted long-term support on the 76.97 able to contain selling into December activity.
Upside Thursday, closing back above 88.49 will keep 95.91-96.36 long-term resistance in reach by the end of next week, where the market can top out through December, and a meaningful upside continuation region into later year.
Crude Oil Futures WTI (CL1!)
Oil Falls from the $90's!Oil has fallen from the $90's after the rejection from $94 has taken the $90 handle entirely. We fell back to the high $80's, with $87.21 providing support, exactly as we predicted in these reports. Our floor for oil for now, is $85.55. The Kovach OBV is still surprisingly strong, though it has arched over a bit with the selloff. If we can pivot off current levels, then $90.06 is the next target.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/9/22For Wednesday, 88.62 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 96.05-96.36 is expected within 3-5 days a range of longer-term resistance able to contain buying through the balance of the year, once tested 76.97 attainable over that time horizon.
On the other hand, a settlement today above 96.36 indicates 99.92 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday above 96.36 would signal 110.72 by the end of the year, where the broader market can top out into next spring.
Downside Wednesday, breaking/opening below 88.62 allows 85.53, while closing below 88.62 indicates a good weekly high, 82.42 then likely within several days, 76.97 attainable by the end of November.
Oil Maintains the $90'sOil topped out around $94 after breaking through our target at $92.03. We made a concerted effort for our next target at $95.24, but fell short just below $94. This was a high from the last attempt in early October, and may constitute a double top. We are not seeing a serious retracement, and are still holding the $90's. In order to press higher, we must break through $94 definitively. If support in the $90's does not hold, then $87.21 will likely be a floor price for now.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/8/22For Tuesday, 88.76 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 96.18-96.36 is expected within the week, a range of longer-term resistance able to contain buying through the balance of the year, once tested 76.97 attainable over that time horizon.
A settlement today above 96.36 indicates 99.92 within the week, while a weekly settlement Friday above 96.36 would signal 110.72 by the end of the year, where the broader market can top out into next spring.
Downside Tuesday, closing below 88.76 indicates a good weekly high, 82.35 then likely by Friday’s close, possibly yielding 76.97 by the end of November.
WTI OIL Broke above the 1D MA100 for the first time in 4 months!WTI Oil (USOIL) didn't just break above its long-term Channel Down pattern on Friday, but at the same time broke and closed above its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since July 05. That alone is the second major bullish signal on WTI, after the September 27 rebound on the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). That is something we made clear on our previous analysis:
Right now the price is entering the Resistance Zone of August, which only broke once in August 29/30. This time however the technicals are different as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has become as Support and the MACD on the 1W time-frame has made a Bullish Cross, the first since January 17 2022! At the same time, the 1D RSI remains on Higher Highs and a huge bullish divergence as the actual price is on Lower Highs (since August 29).
As a result, trade within the medium-term (October) Channel Up (dotted lines) for as long as it lasts. A break above, targets the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and above the 0.618 Fib, strong bounce to the 0.786. On the other hand, we will turn bearish on if the price breaks below the 1D MA50, and target the 1W MA100.
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Oil Regains the $90'sAs we have been predicting for a while, oil has broken out into the $90's. There are only so many reserves that Biden can deplete in a frenetic attempt to improve his tarnished image before midterms. We have smashed through $90.06, which provided strong resistance and was a barrier for some time. We are currently testing $92.03 which was the exact target we predicted last week. Red triangles on the KRI are confirming resistance here. If we see a retracement we will find support at $90.06 again, or $88.74. Our next target is $95.24.
MarketBreakdown | WTI OIL, NZDUSD, US100, EURJPY
Here is a brief technical outlook for 4 instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ WTI Crude Oil 🛢️
After a long-lasting bullish accumulation within an ascending triangle, the market broke
its resistance on Friday.
It looks like the market will keep growing.
2️⃣ NZDUSD 🇺🇸🇳🇿
The pair is very bullish since the middle of October.
The price is currently approaching a local high.
If the market breaks and closes above that, a bullish continuation will be expected to 0.6 level.
3️⃣ US100 (NASDAQ) Index 📈
After a three-weeks-long consolidation within a horizontal range,
the market broke its support to the downside and closed below that.
Now the market is retesting that.
I believe that a bearish move will initiate soon.
4️⃣ EURJPY 🇪🇺🇯🇵
The pair is very close to a recently broken major rising trend line.
With a high probability, we will see a bearish reaction from that,
Pay close attention!
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section.
Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/7/22For Monday, 88.90 can contain weekly selling pressures, above which 93.71 remains a 1-2 day target, the 96.32-96.36 region expected by the end of next week. Upside Monday, pushing/opening above 93.71 allows 96.32-96.36 intraday, a range of longer-term resistance able to contain buying through the balance of the year, once tested 76.97 attainable over that time horizon. A weekly settlement above 96.36 would, on the other hand, signal 110.72 by the end of the year, where the broader market can top out into next spring. Downside Monday, closing below 88.90 indicates a good weekly high, 81.61 then likely by Friday’s close, possibly yielding 76.97 by the end of November.
On the horizon, the 76.97 region can contain selling through November, above which 96.36 is attainable over that time horizon, able to contain buying through December and the region to settle above for signaling 1-2 months bullish continuation to 110.72, where the broader market can top out through winter activity. Downside, a weekly settlement below 76.97 indicates 63.29- 68.50 by the end of November or sooner, a narrowing zone of secondary long-term support able to contain selling into next spring.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/4/22For Friday, 89.03 can contain buying through next week, below which 83.15 remains a 3-5 day target, 77.45 longer-term in reach in reach again over the next several weeks. Downside Friday, 87.30 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 87.30 allows 83.15 intraday, where the market can bottom out into later next week. A settlement today below 83.15 signal 77.45 longer-term support within 3-5 more days. Upside Friday, pushing/opening above 89.03 signals 91.35, while closing above 89.03 will keep 96.46 - 97.66 long-term resistance in reach over the next several weeks, where the broader market can top out through the balance of the year.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/3/22For Thursday, 89.17 can contain selling through next week, above which the 96.60-97.66 area is likely over the next 1-2 weeks. Upside Thursday, 92.59 can contain session strength, while closing today above 92.59 indicates 96.60 within several days, the start of a narrow zone of targeted long-term resistance up to 97.66 that can contain buying through December. Downside Thursday, breaking/opening below 89.17 allows 85.73, while closing below 89.17 should yield 83.01 over the next 3-5 days, and will keep 77.45 in reach over the next several weeks.
WTI CRUDE OIL Neutral for now, 1D MA100 is the keyWTI Crude Oil has made a break above the June Channel Down but still this isn't a long-term signal to buy. The key here is the 1D MA100, which has been keeping the price below it since July 05. If it breaks, we will target the 97.65 Resistance. Then the 1D MA200 will decide if we enter the bullish trend on the long-term again, or pull back towards the bottom of a newly formed blue Channel Up.
A break below that Channel would keep the long-term bearish trend intact, targeting the 76.20 Support. Best signal to sell this would be the STOCH RSI making a Sell Cross.
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Crude Oil Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022 Crude Oil Monthly Forecast Movements 1-30 November 2022
We can see that for this month, the implied volatility is around 13.69%, decreasing from 13.8% of last month.
This is currently placing us in the 57th percentile according to ATR and 92th according to OVX
Based on this percentile calculation, on average the monthly movement for the candle(from open of the candle to the close of the candle) is:
BEARISH Candle : 9.577%
BULLISH Candle : 7.46%
With this in mind we can expect with a close to 24.4% probability that our close of the monthly candle is going to close either above or below the next channel:
BOT: 74.5
TOP: 98.3
Lastly, based on the calculations that we had for touching the previous candle high and low values, we can estimate that there is a :
75% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly high of 94.4
27% chance that we are going to touch the previous monthly low of 80.5
Oil Facing Resistance at $90Oil has edged higher towards the $90's. We still haven't quite been able to break that threshold just yet, with a rejection just now at the time of this writing just below our level at $90.06. We are seeing red triangles on the KRI at this level. The Kovach OBV has picked up, so we will see if momentum can break us into the $90's, but so far $90.06 is a barrier. If we can break through, then the next target is $92.03. If we retrace, then we should have support again from $85.55.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/2/22For Wednesday, 89.31 can contain buying through next week, below which the market remains susceptible to falling back to 77.45 over the next 2-3 weeks. Downside Wednesday, 85.07 can contain session weakness, while closing below 85.07 signals 77.45 longer-term support by the end of next week, where the market can bottom out through November, and above which the 96.74-97.66 region is attainable over that time horizon. Upside Wednesday, a settlement above 89.31 indicates the 96.74 - 97.66 area within 1-2 more weeks, able to contain buying through December.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 11/1/22The 77.45 region can contain selling through November, above which 97.66 is attainable over that time horizon, able to contain buying through December and the region to settle above for signaling 2-3 months bullish continuation to 111.95, where the broader market can top out through winter activity. Downside, a weekly settlement below 77.45 indicates 68.50 by the end of November or sooner, able to contain broader market selling through the balance of the year.
USOIL 1st NOVEMBER 2022US President Joe Biden will ask oil and gas companies to invest some of their record profits in lowering the cost of living in the country. Biden will ask Congress to consider requiring oil companies to pay a tax penalty. Biden has previously encouraged oil companies to increase production rather than use profits for share buybacks and dividends. The government is also relying on releasing supplies from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to ease the supply crisis.
WTI Light Sweet Crude Oil, DAILY Market Analysis 10/31/22For Monday, 89.59 can contain buying through next week, below which the market remains susceptible to falling back to 77.45 over the next 2-3 weeks. Downside Monday, 85.18 can contain session weakness, while closing below 85.18 signals 77.45 longer-term support within 3-5 days, where the market can bottom out through November, and above which the 97.02-97.66 region is attainable over that time horizon. Upside Monday, a settlement above 89.59 indicates the 97.02 - 97.66 area within 1-2 more weeks, able to contain buying through December.
WEEKLY ANALYSIS: The 77.45 region can contain selling through November, above which 97.66 is attainable over that time horizon, able to contain buying through December and the region to settle above for signaling 2-3 months bullish continuation to 111.95, where the broader market can top out through winter activity. Downside, a weekly settlement below 77.45 indicates 68.50 by the end of November or sooner, able to contain broader market selling through the balance of the year.
DAY TRADE Market Condition summery 44th weekHi traders,
It was 1st week of posting the Day Trade Market Condition, the levels for the week 44th worked successfully. Hope the traders benefit from the daily posting on tradingview idea.
As I always like Jesse Livemore who trend follower, my method of trading base on my Dynamic Trend Channel which systematically update levels for day trade, for day trade the left column of the table with 3 possible: 1 Rally (break up- cyan); 2 Shop Zone (yellow); 3 Drop (break down- magenta). More on higher time frame, right column of the table display the week levels those divided into 3 possible as weel: 1 BULL (green); 2 Cumulating (yellow); 3 BEAR (red)
For the coming 45th week, traders stay on right side the fence, trade well!
Traders like to know how to enter trades with above levels, please look up my idea on Price Action , Momentum
CL1! - Weekly Market Update, 10/31WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - 10/31/22 (CLZ2022)
The TEAL ascending support region currently @ 77.75 for this week can contain selling near term,
above which the descending ORANGE structure above @ 89.00 can contain buying strength near term.
Upside, for this week, we'll be looking for price action to be contained by the TEAL ascending channel above @ 94.25.
A weekly settlement above 94.75 (buy a 1%+ margin) should signal 110.00 to follow.
Downside, 77.75 can contain weekly selling pressures, while a settlement below 77.00 by 1%+
could trigger an accelerated move towards 66.50 followed by 52.25 which is able to contain selling through the balance of the year.