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Crude Oil Futures WTI (CL1!)

Crude oil wants to make money to read this article!The recent rise and fall of crude oil, as a whole is a big shock, although it is an upward trend, but not so clear, yesterday's daily line is very unexpected unexpectedly closed the negative line, the rise is not coherent, such a market we understand as shock, today's thinking of shock more treatment, today's crude oil attention yesterday back to the low point is the bottom of the upward trend of 1 hour, Strong support is near 73.10, these two positions are the positions of bull sniping, and the positions of pressure are 75.50 and 76.50
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by the_Hand_of_God
2
WTI CRUDE OIL Buy and target the 1day MA50.WTI Crude Oil / USOIL is inside a Channel Down but the bearish strength is fading as a Falling Support has been formed while the 1day RSI Double Bottomed. At the same time the 1day MACD is about to form the 2nd Bullish Cross in less than a month. The very same (Channel Down) pattern was trading back in June - August 2022, with the same bullish divergence and MACD Bullish Cross. The price bottomed on that Cross and rebounded to test the 1day MA50. Buy and target again the 1day MA50 with an early target estimate being 77.00. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:USOILLong
by TheCryptagon
1
US Oil ~ Macro Headwinds > Market Intervention (1H)TVC:USOIL chart mapping/analysis. Crude Oil reversing all gains manufactured by OPEC+ production cuts & Middle-East conflict premiums, while threatening to further capitulate due to growing macro headwinds leading into 2024.. Trading scenarios into EOY: Bullish resurgence = rally above horizontal resistance line (yellow dashed) into 23.6% Fib & upper range of descending parallel channel (white) / re-test ascending trend-lines (green dotted) confluence zone. Bearish continuation = break below previous low (~68.80) towards ~67 horizontal line (yellow dashed) / descending trend-line (light blue / lower range of descending parallel channel (white) confluence zone. Neutral scenario = further sideways chop until next OPEC+ catalyst / key macro economic development.
TVC:USOILShort
by BlueHatInvestor
🔝 US Gas prices become more affordable as key breakdown is hereAmericans could breathe a sigh of relief with gas prices set to be more affordable this year. US gas prices hit their highest 52 Weeks in August and September ahead of Labor Day, with the national average standing at $3.82 a gallon FRED:GASREGW , per AAA Gas Prices . Gasoline prices hit summertime levels in over a decade even as the driving season comes to a halt, as a result of rising crude-oil prices TVC:USOIL driven by production cuts. Brent crude TVC:UKOIL , the international benchmark, jumped to $90 a barrel earlier is September for the first time in 2023 after both Saudi Arabia and Russia extended oil production cuts of 1.3 million barrels a day through December 2023 in a bid to maintain price stability. Higher US gas prices NYMEX:RB1! are a problem for the Federal Reserve, which has been trying to tame historically high inflation. The central bank has already hiked interest rates ECONOMICS:USINTR by more than 500 basis points since March 2022, helping lower the pace of consumer-price increases to 3.2% in July from last year's highs above 9%. But the jump in fuel prices is threatening to derail the progress the Fed has made in taming inflation. As a result, just after September, 2023 FOMC meeting market participants are waiting one or maybe two dovish Fed's Rate price actions in 2024. At the same time before September, 2023 Federal Reserve meeting, market expectations were about three cuts, near to four. (up to 100 b.p.). Meanwhile juts a take a look what technical picture in RBOB Gasoline futures RB1! price says. Near the middle of August, 2023 Gasoline futures prices turned massively down, due to seasonal backwardation in RBOB futures contracts, where autumn RBOB futures contracts are usually to be trade lower vs. summer RBOB futures contracts. Moreover, in the last day of Q3'23 RBOB futures price turned firmly lower, breaking down the major trendline support that was actual all the time from disinflationary Covid-19 era. Moreover weekly SMA(52) is broken down also. In a conclusion, I have to say that retail gasoline prices are usually to follow the major trend, within one or up to two months.
NYMEX:RB1!
by Pandorra
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Bearish Trend Continues 🛢️ Crude oil is trading in a bearish trend on a daily. After a long-lasting consolidation within a horizontal range, the market violated its support on a daily and set a new lower low. Retesting the broken structure, the market started to coil within an intraday range. Its support breakout gives us a strong intraday confirmation. A bearish movement is now expected at least to 70.7 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:USOILShort
by VasilyTrader
3
WTI CRUDE OIL: Below the 1W MA200. Critical Support to hold.WTI Crude Oil crossed today under the 1W MA200, which is a level that, even though it broke on occassions this year, hasn't closed a 1D candle under it since February 1st 2021. Those occasions are marked by circles on your chart and as you see despite breaking under it, the price rose intraday closing the candles over the 1W MA200 at the end of those sessions, essentially holding it as long term Support. It is now critical therefore for buyers to hold the 1W MA200 and push the candle above it before the closing bell today. The 1D technical outlook is strongly bearish (RSI = 31.049, MACD = -2.590, ADX = 35.758), which is normal considering that the commodity has been trading inside a Channel Down since the September 28th High. However having touched the 30.000 oversold level on the 1D RSI, it makes the case for a rebound stronger, since every time it gold oversold during this (almost) 2 year span, an aggressive rebound followed. Consequently, as long as the 1D candles close over the 1W MA200, we will be buying and aming for the top of the Channel Down (TP = 76.50) and potentially the 1D MA50. If however the candle closes under it, we will aim for the 1.786 Fibonacci extension (TP = 66.50) as the November 8th Lower Low did. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOIL
by InvestingScope
CL1! Crude Oil Day Trade 6-Dec-2023TRADE DIRECTION: SHORT; as indicated by the red EMA cloud and the market structure. KEY LEVEL: 1) Round numbers S&R with 25 ticks range between each level (hidden) 2) Monthly, Weekly and Daily Pivot levels. TRIGGER SIGNAL: Price broke the previous day's low (green circle) and retraced to the bearish EMA cloud. A bearish pin bar (in yellow circle) formed as a sign sellers are ready to push the price down. The Profit target is set to be 3 ticks above the Daily S3 (white circle). RR: 1:1.56 SL: 54 Ticks TP: 84 Ticks (achieved)
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by TheDemonTrader
WTI CRUDE OIL High probability buy above the MA50 (4h).WTI Oil is trading inside a Channel Down since the September 27th High. The price is now forming the Right Shoulder of a minor Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern that bottomed on the Lower Lows trend line of the Channel Down. This is formation technically aims at pricing the new Lower High at the top of the Channel Down. Trading Plan: 1. Buy the moment a (4h) candle gets closed over the MA50 (4h). Targets: 1. 80.50 (which is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension, as the previous Lower High was priced. Also it's the MA200 4h and top of the Channel Down). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is forming the exact same pattern as the previous bottom from October 6th to 12th. Once it re-crossed over its MA line, the spike that priced the top started. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: Past trading plan:
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingBrokersView
Crude oil looks set to bounce ahead of OPECWith oil prices having fallen around -25% from the September high, a correction higher may be due. And as prices failed to hold beneath $70, Wednesday's bullish hammer (which is also a higher low) has caught out eye). The hammer was coupled with above-average volume to suggest demand around $75, and the initial break below $70 was seen on strong negative delta (more sellers than buyers) which means the subsequent move higher likely forced them to cover and reconsider their direction. A move towards $75 could help improve the reward to risk ration for an anticipate move to $80, a break above which brings $82 into focus just beneath the January and April highs.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by CityIndex
WTI CRUDE OIL Buy signal under the 4hour MA50WTI Crude Oil / USOIL is trading inside a Channel Down for almost 2 months. The recent Lower Low on its bottom is so far replicating the previous one on October 6th. Today's sudden decline made a symmetric pull-back as on October 12th. This is the final short term buy opportunity before the price approaches the top of the Channel and the 4hour MA200. A crossing over the 4hour MA50 will confirm the buy. Target 79.50, which is under Resistance A, like the Lower High of October 20th. Previous chart: Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:USOILLong
by TheCryptagon
Crude Oil Futures ~ November TA V2 (4H Intraday)NYMEX:CL1! chart mapping/analysis. Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes. What's on the chart: Converging parallel channels (light blue) aka diamond box pattern, framing price action into a pennant formation on higher timeframe. Descending parallel channel (white) emphasizing current downward trend since late September peak. Fibonnaci levels highlight key support/resistance zones. Short-medium term outlook: Sharp reversal (short-squeeze?) from over-selling after breaking out lower range of parallel channel (white). Bullish reversal = rally back above 50% Fib. Bearish continuation = further selling below previous low towards 78.6% Fib / lower range of parallel channel (light blue) confluence zone. Watch for commodity trading trend/sentiment in either direction - leading into upcoming OPEC+ decision re: 2024 supply cuts, TBC.
NYMEX:CL1!
by BlueHatInvestor
WTI bears eye a move down to $80Last week's swing trade to $90 worked out well, yet momentum ha since shifted lower. I noted in the recent COT report that managed funds and large speculators have been trimming long exposure in recent weeks, and that managed funds increased short exposure last week despite the slew of negative headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict. This also coincided with the two small bullish weekly candles, which appeared to be corrective on the weekly chart - and therfore suggests lower prices. A lower high has formed below $90 and momentum turned lower. As support has been found around the Jan/April highs, we suspect a bounce is due. And this could allow bears to fade into favourable prices below $87 - $87.50 on the assumption a breakdown is pending ahead of its move to $80. Should this be part of a larger decline, note that $75 and $70 are near the 100% and 138.2% Fibonacci projection levels on the daily chart.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by CityIndex
WTI CRUDE OIL: At the bottom of the 6 week Channel Down.WTI Crude Oil hit today the bottom LL trendline of the six week Channel Down, turning oversold on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 31.036, MACD = -2.860, ADX = 46.284). That alone is a strong medium term buy signal, aiming at a +10.15% rise (TP = 79.50), which is how much the previous bullish leg of the Channel rose by. That is where the R1 level is also (79.75) and depending on how aggressive the rally will be, it may even extend as high as the 0.618 Fibonacci level (again same as the October 20th LH) and test the 1D MA50. Keep in mind that the 1W MA200 is slightly lower and is the level that supported WTI on many successive tests from March till June, closing all 1D candles over it. Also the last time the 1D RSI broke the 30.00 oversold level was on March 17th and a very aggressive rebound followed. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
1
WTI Crude oil front expirationOverview: with today's fall in price, having reached $73.80 support area, and with a divergence on RSI, we consider close the corrective structure ABC on the daily time frame. Strategy: Moderate bullish position's delta , Our current position's delta: +0.30 Bullish first target: $75.00/$75.30 Bullish second target: $76.00 Mandatory rebalancing level / Stop loss: on breakout of the daily's low Bearish first target: $73.00 Bearish second target: $72.20
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by DeltaZeroProprietaryTrading
Primer on Crude Oil Crack SpreadEver dreamt of being an oil refiner? Fret not. You can operate a virtual refinery using a combination of energy derivatives that replicates oil refiner returns. Crude oil is the world’s most traded commodity. Oil consumption fuels the global economy. Crude is refined into gasoline and distillates. Refining is the process of cracking crude into its usable by-products. Gross Processing Margin (GPM) guides refineries to modulate their output. Crack spread defines GPM in oil refining. This primer provides an overview of factors affecting the crack spread. It delves into the mechanics of harnessing refining spread gains using CME suite of energy products. UNPACKING THE CRACK SPREAD Crack spread is the difference between price of outputs (gasoline & distillate prices) and the inputs (crude oil price). Cracking is an industry term pointing to breaking apart crude oil into its component products. Portfolio managers can use CME energy futures to gain exposure to the GPM for US refiners. CME offers contracts that provide exposure to WTI Crude Oil ( CL ) as well as the most liquid refined product contracts namely NY Harbor ULSD ( HO ) and RBOB Gasoline ( RB ). Crude Prices Crude oil prices play a significant role in determining the crack spread. Refining profitability is directly impacted by crude oil price volatility which is influenced by geopolitics, supply-demand dynamics, and macroeconomic conditions. Higher oil prices lead to a narrowing crack spread. Lower crude prices result in wider margins. Expectedly, one leg of the crack spread comprises of crude oil. Gasoline Prices Gasoline is arguably the most important refined product of crude oil. Gasoline is not a direct byproduct of the distillation process. It is a blend of distilled products that provides the most consistent motor fuel. Gasoline prices at the pump in the US vary by region. Price differs due to differences in state taxes, distance from supply sources, competition among gasoline retailers, operating costs in the region, and state-specific regulations. CME’s RBOB Gasoline contract provides exposure to Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB). It is procured by local retailers, who blend in their own additives and sell the final product at pumps. RBOB is blended with ethanol to create reformulated gasoline. It produces less smog than other blends. Consequently, it is mandated by about 30% of the US market. RBOB price is thus representative of US gasoline demand. Each CME RBOB Gasoline contract provides exposure to 42,000 gallons. It is quoted in gallons instead of barrels. The contract size is equivalent to one thousand barrels like the crude oil contract. Distillate Prices Distillate or Heating Oil is another important refined product of crude oil. Distillate is used to make jet fuel and diesel. Demand for distillate products is distinct from gasoline demand. A substantial portion of the North-East US lack adequate connection to natural gas. Hence, the region depends on HO for energy during winters making HO sensitive to weather. CME NY Harbor ULSD contract ("ULSD”) provides exposure to 42,000 gallons of Ultra-low sulphur diesel which is a type of HO. ULSD contract is also equivalent to one thousand barrels. Chart: ULSD Price Performance Over the Last Twenty Years. TRADING THE CRACK SPREAD The crack spread can be expressed using the above contracts in three distinct ways: 1) 1:1 SPREAD This spread consists of a single contract of CL on one leg and a single contract of one of the refined products on the other. This spread helps traders to express their view on the relationship between single type of refined product against crude oil. It is useful when price of one of the refined products diverges from crude oil prices. 1:1 spread is also useful when there are distinct conditions affecting each of the refined products. 2) 3:2:1 SPREAD This spread consists of (3 contracts of CL) on one leg and (2 contracts RBOB + 1 contract of ULSD) on the other leg. The entire position thus consists of six contracts. It assumes that three barrels of crude can be used to create two barrels of RBOB and one barrel of HO. This trade is better at capturing the actual refining margin. It is commonly used by refiners to hedge their market exposure to crude and refined products. 3:2:1 spread is used by investors to express views on conditions affecting refineries. 3) 5:3:2 SPREAD Spread consists of (5 contracts of CL) on one leg and (3 contracts of RBOB + 2 contracts of heating oil) on the other leg. This spread captures the actual proportions from the refining process. However, it is much more capital-intensive. FACTORS IMPACTING CRACK SPREAD Seasonality, supply-demand dynamics, and inventory levels collectively impact crack spreads. Seasonality Mint Finance covered seasonal factors affecting crude oil prices in a previous paper . In that paper, we described that crude seasonality is influenced by variation in refined products demand. In summer, gasoline demand is higher, and, in the winter, distillate demand is higher. Seasonal price performance of the three contracts is distinct leading to a unique seasonal variation in various crack spreads. Summary performance of the three spreads is provided below. Chart: Seasonal price performance of Crude, its refined products, and their spread (excluding years 2008, 2009 and 2020 in which extreme price moves were observed) Refiners strategically time their operations based on seasonal trends, ramping up refinery capacity ahead of peak demand in summer and winter. This involves building up inventories to meet anticipated high demand. However, this preparation often results in a narrowed spread just before peak utilization. As the spread reaches its lowest point, refiners take capacity offline for maintenance. Subsequently, crack margins begin to expand as refined product supplies dwindle, aligning with decreased crude oil consumption. This results in a gradually increasing spread through high consumption periods. Supply/Inventories Supply and inventories of crude oil and refined products influence crack spreads. When inventories of refined products remain elevated, their prices decline narrowing the spread. When the production and inventory of crude oil is elevated, its price declines leading to a widening spread. On the contrary, low inventories of refined products can lead to a wider crack spread and low inventories of crude oil leads to a narrower crack spread. Demand Refinery demand has a self-balancing effect as higher refining requires higher consumption of crude which acts to increase crude oil prices. Demand for crude oil and refined products is broadly correlated. However, there are often periods when demand diverges on a short-term scale. Economic activity and available supplies drive demand for refined products. During periods of high economic growth, refined product consumption is robust pushing their price higher. Demand for refined products can precede or lag demand for crude oil from seasonal as well as trend-based factors. This lag can be identified using the crack spread. Sharp moves in crack spread pre-empt moves in the underlying which act to normalize the spread. CURRENT CONDITIONS There are two trends defining the crack spread currently: 1) Divergence in demand & inventories of gasoline and distillates: Low demand for gasoline is evident due to expectations of an economic slowdown while gasoline inventories remain elevated. Though, distillate consumption remains high as inventories are declining and lower than the 5-year average range. Chart: Divergence in inventories of distillate and gasoline (Source – EIA 1 , 2 ). Moreover, inventories of gasoline and distillates are higher than usual. Both factors together have led to a gloomy outlook for refined product demand. Gasoline stocks have started to increase while distillate stocks are still declining. When refined product inventories are elevated investors can position short on the crack spread in anticipation of ample supply. Conversely, if refined product inventories are low, investors can position long on the crack spread. Chart: Divergence in refined product inventories in US (gasoline rising and distillate declining). 2) Declining crude price and tight supplies: In September, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced supply cuts extending into January. Globally, this led to a supply deficit of crude oil. Supplies of crude in the US was particularly stressed as refiners increased utilization to build up inventories while margins were high and exacerbated by a pipeline outage. Chart: Crude Oil inventories in US have stabilized in September and October. Following increase in oil prices, refining activity has slowed, and supplies have become more stable. When inventories of crude are stable or elevated, it indicates less demand from refiners. Investors can opt to position long on the crack spread anticipating ample crude supply. Chart: US Refinery Utilization and Crude Inputs have slowed in October. Although, crude oil supply cuts from Saudi are going to continue until January 2024, there is no longer a deficit as consumption has slowed down. Together, both trends have caused a sharp collapse in the crack spread. Value of the 3:2:1 crack spread has declined by 50% over the past month. Prices of refined products have been affected more negatively by low demand than crude oil. Inventories and supply situation for refined products is more secure than crude oil. Still, seasonal trends suggest an expansion in crack spread once refined product inventories start to be depleted. HARNESSING GAINS FROM CHANGES IN CRACK SPREAD Two hypothetical trade setups are described below which can be used to take positions on the crack spread based on assessment of current conditions. LONG 3:2:1 SPREAD Based on (a) sharp decline in crack spread which is likely to revert, and (b) seasonal trend pointing to increase in the crack spread, investors can take a long position in the crack spread. This consists of: • Long position in 2 x RBF2024 and 1 x HOF2024 • Short position in 3 x CLF2024 The position profits when: 1) Price of RBOB and ULSD rise faster than Crude. 2) Price of Crude declines faster than RBOB and ULSD. The position looses when: 1) Price of Crude rises faster than RBOB and ULSD. 2) Price of RBOB and ULSD declines faster than Crude. • Entry: 63.81 • Target: 79.12 • Stop Loss: 55.73 • Profit at Target: USD 45,930 ((Target-Entry) x 1000 x 3) • Loss at Stop: USD 24,240 ((Stop-Entry) x 1000 x 3) • Reward/Risk: 1.89x LONG 1:1 HEATING OIL SPREAD Based on relative bullishness in distillate inventories plus stronger seasonal demand for distillates during winter, margins for refining heating oil will likely rise faster than gasoline refining margins. Focusing the expanding crack margin on a 1:1 heating oil margin spread can lead to a stronger payoff. This position consists of Long 1 x HOF2024 and Short 1 x CLF2024 . The position profits when: 1) Price of ULSD rises faster than Crude. 2) Price of Crude declines faster than ULSD. The position will endure losses when: 1) Price of Crude rises faster than ULSD. 2) Price of ULSD declines faster than Crude. • Entry: 36.15 • Target: 42.79 • Stop Loss: 32.3 • Profit at Target: USD 6,640 ((Target-Entry) x 1000) • Loss at Stop: USD 3,850 ((Stop-Entry) x 1000) • Reward/Risk: 1.72x KEY TAKEAWAYS Crack spread refers to the gross processing margin of refining (“cracking”) crude oil into its by-products. Refined products RBOB and ULSD can be traded on the CME as separate commodities. Both are representative of demand for crude oil from distinct sources. There are three types of crack spread: 1:1, 3:2:1, and 5:3:2. a. 1:1 can be used to express views on the relationship between one of the refined products and crude. b. 3:2:1 can be used to express views on the refining margin of refineries. c. 5:4:3 can give a more granular view of proportions of refined products produced at refineries but is far more capital-intensive. Crack spreads are affected by seasonality, supply, and inventory levels of crude and refined products, as well as demand for each refined product. A low-demand outlook for refined products of crude is prevalent due to expectations of an economic slowdown. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
NYMEX:RB1!Long
by mintdotfinance
12