Cl1!short
Crude Oil Trade Idea for Next Week - CL CLK2024 USOIL Crude OilThe weekly candle close this week respected the bearish weekly volume imbalance, respected the bearish weekly orderblock, and failed to close above the previous weeks high.
For this reason, I am targeting the PWL as a DOL.
I will be looking for price to trade up into H4 premium arrays and reject from them. Once I see bearish arrays being respected on the H4, I will look for m15 bearish displacement to confirm entry with the PWL as the target.
WTI bears eye a move down to $80Last week's swing trade to $90 worked out well, yet momentum ha since shifted lower.
I noted in the recent COT report that managed funds and large speculators have been trimming long exposure in recent weeks, and that managed funds increased short exposure last week despite the slew of negative headlines surrounding the Middle East conflict. This also coincided with the two small bullish weekly candles, which appeared to be corrective on the weekly chart - and therfore suggests lower prices.
A lower high has formed below $90 and momentum turned lower. As support has been found around the Jan/April highs, we suspect a bounce is due. And this could allow bears to fade into favourable prices below $87 - $87.50 on the assumption a breakdown is pending ahead of its move to $80.
Should this be part of a larger decline, note that $75 and $70 are near the 100% and 138.2% Fibonacci projection levels on the daily chart.
WTI prints key reversal day ahead of FOMCWhilst we retain our view that oil prices could be headed for $100 further out, the trend seems to have hit a speed bump over the near-term.
WTI broke above $90 with ease yet faltered around $95 with a shooting car candle with high volume (which makes it a potential key reversal day). A bearish divergence has also formed with the RSI (2) after it reached overbought.
With the potential for the Fed to be more hawkish than expected, it could provide the catalyst for a pullback on WTI. A break below $90 confirms the near-term reversal is underway, with $87 making an initial target around the volume node from its preceding leg higher. $85 could also provide support around the August highs, which might tempt dip buyers more focussed on the fundamentals currently supporting higher oil prices.
$74 could be pivotal for WTI over the near termCommodities were broadly lower yesterday with the CRB index falling to a 4-day low. Geopolitical tensions are rising following Russia’s decision to back out of a key grain deal which allowed Ukraine to export grain through the Black Sea. Weak data from China and news that Libya will restart oil production also saw WTI fall for a second day.
What has caught our eye is that WTI played very nicely with its round numbers yesterday, printing the high of the day at $76, a lower high at $75 and lows around $74. It is also considering the break of a trendline, although unless volatility picks up it runs the risk of moving sideways through it (which is not in the spirit of a trendline break).
Still, $74 appears to be a pivotal level over the near-term. And if prices print a minor bounce, we’d still consider shorts below $75 with a view for it to trade to $73. Take note that it is contract expiration today so we may see spills of undesirable volatility, but overall we want to see which way momentum takes this market next.
CL1! Will Go Lower From Resistance! Sell!
Please, check our technical outlook for CL1!.
Time Frame: 12h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 73.13.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 69.52 level soon.
P.S
Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback.
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CL1! Will Fall! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for CL1!.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is testing a major horizontal structure 79.46.
Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 73.95 level soon.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Oversold refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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WTI falters around $70Oil prices fell to a 15-month low as investors fretted over the potential for a financial meltdown. Whilst that is yet to fully materialise (or if it does at all), investors remain a little on edge - with news of the latest Hindenburg report accusing Block (SQ) of fraudulent activity not likely to quell fears.
WTI has manged to lift itself from its 15-month lows, yet volumes declined over this period to suggest the move was corrective. A bearish Pinbar also formed, which not only failed to test the $72.46 breakout level but also closed back below $70 and the December low. Also note that a bullish hammer has formed on the US dollar index (DXY).
- We're now waiting for a break of Wednesday's low to assume bearish continuation, with target zones made up of Fibonacci expansions and round numbers residing around $65 and $60 in focus.
- The bias remains bearish below $72.46, although yesterday's high can also be used if a tighter approach to risk management is preferred.
CL1!: Short Trade Explained
CL1!
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects pullback
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell CL1!
Entry Level - 95.26
Stop Loss - 101.39
Take Profit - 86.05
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from higher levels.
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WTI: Flying SquirrelFlying squirrels are not, in fact, able to fly but rather glide from tree to tree, using their extended skin that stretches from their arms to their legs. Just like one of those flying squirrels, WTI has jumped off the retracement at $115.78, where it has finished wave b in orange, and is currently gliding downwards in the direction of the support at $80.98. After it has completed wave (A) in white in this region, WTI should temporarily gain some new momentum, spreading its parachute-like skin again for a countermovement in wave (B) in white. Then, it should continue to float into the green treetop between $70.12 and $35.77 to conclude wave (C) in white, wave c in orange and wave 2 in green.
WTI: Fast and Furious 🏎🏎🏎After its racy rush upwards into the red zone between $111.46 and $131.21, WTI has slammed on the brakes at the resistance line at $130.50 and turned around with screeching tires to race down into the orange zone between $96.40 and $88.38. There, WTI should finish wave a in orange and then ride a short loop upwards to complete wave b in orange. After this daring feat, the drive should go on downwards below the support at $80.98 and into the green zone between $70.12 and $35.77.