Technicals On Crude Post FOMCWednesday we saw Crude make a nice substantial move downwards as the previous forecasts have shown.
A large range day isnt normally followed by another day with a extremely large range and you can think of it like a runner running 800meters and couples minutes later having to run another race shortly after... energy needs to be recouped.
I am staying bearish and would like to see the Daily FVG and PDL liquidity taken and Daily FVG to be filled/spiked to.
30min fvg CE aligns with Daily ifvg which I believe should hold price lower.
Watch these levels post NY open.
Cl1
FOMC Crude OilDaily Target met post NY open and Crude oil news.
Drop mic.
Just imagine you had the skill or someone to guide you where price is going?
You have the model... you just need direction.. we all struggle at one point on the bias esp intra day which needs a trader to be dynamic in his/her thoughts even when price is going against them intra day.
Daily/Weekly are essential.
Will update later for further bias and forecast for Crude!
Crude Oil WTI - Long Trade IdeaHello hello,
My bias is still long. I will link that analysis to this one. So, I am looking for a continuation to the upside.
At the moment, everything looks good for a continuation to the upside. The Monthly candle closed above the annotated Monthly SIBI, and a new Monthly BISI was created. What i'm looking now is for price to come into any of those areas, but it will likely enter both. I have annotated 2 POIs for a trade on the Daily timeframes. My "R2F" and "Megaphone" setups are ready to go.
The stoplosses illustrated are standard, so the safest thing to do is to wait for confirmation before solidifying a stoploss. The Monthly candle only JUST opened, and as we know the wicks can paint outside of the lines.
Anyway, I'm looking forward to see how this pans out. I don't usually trade Oil, but futures are generally cleaner than some Forex pairs like USDJPY.
- R2F
Oil / Crude Oil Heading into end of WeekSo we are on the Daily Not moving with much drive and lets say... obvious direction when it comes to day to day bias (Overall Bearish)
I am ONLY focusing on PDH and PDL as targets today with any signal to buy or sell into the market being in a discount before I place a trade.
Range day - yes
To consider that Thursday's have seen good movement on Oil recently so keep this in mind.
Consider also that the Daily wick CE is also aligned with the weekly ifvg.
I will be looking to enter positions today as I am a scalper however anything on the 15min or above I would side with caution as prolonged moves may not be on the cards esp going on the last two weeks of PA.
Also like to thank the people who Boost my posts it means a lot.
Crude Oil WednesdayToday On the Daily I am in confliction with bias meaning that it could be changing soon if we repeat another bullish closing day.
For this I have dropped down onto the 4hr TF and the most recent 4hr -ob is what I will be referencing as to Bullish or Bearish intra day PA.
Scalpers Market atm
If you un sure, sit still.
We did close above the Daily v.i as I have mentioned in my previous posts... so my bias for 80.50 is in jeopardy but as a trader your mind must be dynamic.
As I said sit still or scalp but not in the middle.
WTI looks set to bounce above $80Oil prices have retraced just under 8% from the MTD (month-to-date) high. And it looks like the market is trying to stabilise around a support cluster, just above the $80 handle. The cluster includes the 50-day MA, high-volume node and prior consolidation zone.
A small doji also firmed around these levels to suggest a swing high has formed, or very near.
A bounce to $84 could be on the cards as part of a technical retracement against its prior move lower. Bulls could enter live around current levels with a stop beneath $80, or seek dips towards it in anticipation of an eventual move higher to increase the potential reward to risk ratio.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Going to $100 by end of May.WTI Crude Oil is on very healthy bullish levels on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 63.780, MACD = 1.930, ADX = 37.316) as well as on 1W (RSI = 60.882). This supports the notion that until 1W turns overbought, the 1D can continue to sustain the bullish sequence that started on the December 13th 2023 low. Having formed a 1D Golden Cross just this Tuesday, the last time we got that formation was on August 22nd 2023.
You can see that WTI was within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci range then and immediately rallied after the Cross to complete a +49.50% rise from the bottom. We expect a similar trend reaction and we are targeting slightly under the symmetric +49.50% mark (TP = 100.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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WTI remains on the 'buy the dip' statusMarket positioning data from the COT report shows that asset managers and large speculators are piling into longs, yet shorts remain subdued. The price on the 4-hour chart also shows an established uptrend within a bullish channel.
Prices have not yet completed a 3-wave retracement against the trend, hence the bias for a slightly deeper pullback before its trend resume. Also note that RSI (14) has not yet dipped into the oversold zone (which is now 40 given the strong uptrend).
Any pullbacks towards the internal trendline or $84 will pique our bullish interest for new longs, in anticipation of its next leg higher on route towards $90.
WTI - more upside is likely before a bigger correctionOn the weekly continuation chart a WXY correction ended last week and we got a bullish engulfing candle. There are three wave moves to the downside and upside which means it is now struggling to create a clear five wave moves, but it is still pushed upwards. This can form an ending diagonal pattern, but is not finished yet, at least one abc to the upside is needed.
$CL 4H Analysis - The Uptrend Continues CL is an excellent example of wave analysis while maintaining an upward trend. We sustained a solid upward trend over a period before the scenario became interesting. Here, we saw a structure break to the downside, which turned out to be a two-legged pullback or correction into an untested zone. This attracted more buyers, and the upward trend has now resumed. The current issue is that we are at previous highs. To take a long position, we must wait for a valid pullback to occur, either at the previous higher high (HH) or the average of the HH and the higher low (HL/2).
WTI CRUDE OIL Lower High Sell.WTI Crude Oil has been on Lower Highs even since the rejection on the Rising Resistance of the Megaphone pattern.
As suggested by the previous Bearish Waves, this is a sell signal, with the 4hour RSI following a similar pattern.
Sell and target 79.75 (-3.33%, symmetrical Bearish Wave), which is where the 4hour MA200 is expected to offer support.
Previous chart:
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Crude Oil Trade Idea for Next Week - CL CLK2024 USOIL Crude OilThe weekly candle close this week respected the bearish weekly volume imbalance, respected the bearish weekly orderblock, and failed to close above the previous weeks high.
For this reason, I am targeting the PWL as a DOL.
I will be looking for price to trade up into H4 premium arrays and reject from them. Once I see bearish arrays being respected on the H4, I will look for m15 bearish displacement to confirm entry with the PWL as the target.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Turning bearish with two clear targets.WTI Crude Oil has almost reached on Wednesday our 83.50 long-term TP and it is time for us to turn bearish and consider a long-term selling approach. Technically, the 1D chart already almost turned neutral (RSI = 56.205, MACD = 1.310, ADX = 32.453) and hasn't even approached the 1D MA200. We are targeting a decline near the 1D MA50 (TP = 78.00). If the price closes a 1D candle under it, we will sell again and target the 1W MA200 (TP = 74.50), which as explained in previous analyses and as you can see on this chart, it has been the long-term Support since February 1st 2021.
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EQT projected earnings growth of 95.06%, from $2.43 to $4.74EQT is one of the largest natural gas producers in the US, with a strong market position and recent strategic acquisitions that could contribute to its growth.
There is a projected earnings growth of 95.06%, from $2.43 to $4.74 per share, which could drive the stock price up
WTI crude looks set to bounceMomentum has clearly been in favour of bears over the past week for WTI traders, but given it has fallen over 10% from the January high it could be argued the move is oversold (at least over the near term).
A doji formed on Monday to show bears are losing their grip, and the fact it is forming a base above the 2023 open price and $72 handle adds to the case for a technical bounce. Moreover, bears entered around the January highs but volumes declined as prices fell to suggest the move is running out of steam, and RSI (2) was oversold on Friday.
The bias is for a bounce towards the weekly and monthly pivot points around 74.50 - 74.80 whilst prices remain above Monday's low.
Occidental Petroleum Corp.: Bullish Bias. ContinuationTo be successful on Wall Street, it is important to be flexible and be able to recognize changing market winds - the patterns that tell investors when to get in and out of the market.
Sometimes a breeze is a warm and inviting wind: assets rise in value, and it seems that everyone is making money.
Other times, it turns into a violent storm, leaving in its wake financial destruction, memories of the past, and hope that better times are yet to come.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (often abbreviated as Oxy in reference to the symbol and logo) is an American company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration in the United States and the Middle East, as well as petrochemical production in the United States, Canada and Chile.
The oil company, among other Value Investing Assets, has become one of the main beneficiaries of the weakening and reversal of WFH ("Working From Home") disinflationary trends that quickly shook the entire financial world against the backdrop of the Covid-19 pandemic in Q1 2020. But faded also just as quickly, while since the first quarter of 2021, in two years, many growth assets have been undermined, rocked by scandals, or completely destroyed.
It was revealed in March that Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway added more shares to an already large bet on Occidental Petroleum, according to an SEC Form 4 report released on March 7, 2023.
The Buffett conglomerate bought nearly 5.8 million shares of the oil company over multiple trading sessions in March, at prices ranging from $59.85 to $61.90, according to the documents.
Berkshire now owns 200.2 million shares of Occidental, totaling 22.2% of the oil company's shares, up from 21.4% previously.
Occidental shares are currently among the top 10 Berkshire holdings. The energy company outperformed the S&P 500 index last year, more than doubling in price.
In March, Occidental CEO Vicki Hollub said in an interview with CNBC that she met with the 92-year-old investor, noting that they talked about the oil and gas industry and related technologies.
Last August, Berkshire received regulatory approval to buy up to 50% of Occidental, sparking speculation that Berkshire could eventually buy out the entire Occidental company.
Berkshire also owns $10 billion of preferred shares in Occidental and has warrants to buy another 83.9 million shares of common stock for $5 billion, or $59.62 each. The warrants were obtained as part of the company's 2019 deal that helped finance the purchase of Anadarko Occidental.
While many investors even now continue to believe in the crypto-snow that melted without a trace the winter before last, the technical picture indicates the possibility of Growth comtinuation in value investment assets, incl. Occidental Petroleum - after the completion of the 0.618x Fibonacci retrace to the Growth that began later to Russian President "Special Military Operation" announcement in Q1'22.
Also, the support of weekly SMA (200) in CL1! - Crude Oil Futures adds bullish bias to market participants.
☄ Natural Gas Futures: This Is Ground Control To Major TomThis publication was partially created by ChatGPT AI, under request to Highlight Ten Factors That Could Drive Natural Gas Prices Below Zero in 2023.
Good or bad, y'all be the judge. But here's what ChatGPT said...
As an AI, I cannot guarantee the accuracy of such statements, but based on common knowledge, the following factors may be the reasons why natural gas prices drop below zero in 2023:
1. Growth in the use of alternative energy sources such as solar and wind energy.
2. Increasing US shale gas production, which will lead to an increase in global supply.
3. Reduced demand for natural gas due to switching to other types of fuel.
4. Increasing natural gas production in highly competitive countries such as Russia and Qatar.
5. The weakening of economic activity in various countries of the world, including China, the US and Europe.
6. Reducing inflation in various countries, which reduces the cost of natural gas.
7. A record increase in natural gas inventories caused by a reduction in demand and an increase in production.
8. Disputes between countries-suppliers and consumers of natural gas, which may lead to a decrease in exports and imports.
9. Increasing competition in the natural gas market from other producers such as Iran and Iraq.
10. Development of new technologies that make it possible to obtain energy from other sources without the use of natural gas.
Technical picture in Natural Gas Futures indicates the biggest YTD decline over the all history of Natural Gas Futures trading since early 1990x.
The main chart is adjusted for futures change All History Chart.
WTI stalls around resistanceThe core bias remains for a move up to $77, but as price action during the current rally on the 1-hour chart is choppy and has stalled near resistance, we're looking for a dip lower to around $73.
Also note that the weekly and monthly pivot points are hovering above the 10/20-day EMAs, which adds conviction that an interim top may be about to form.
WTI OIL Technical pull-back. Buy on these levels.WTI Oil (USOIL) gave us the most optimal buy entry last time we made a call on it (January 22, see chart below) and almost touched the 79.40 Target before pulling back:
The pattern that has emerged is a Channel Up that started since the December 13 2023 bottom. The recent top at 79.30 is a technical Higher High for the Channel Up and the rejection has started the new Bearish Leg to a Lower Low (bottom of Channel Up). However the price may not pull-back that far this time as the 4H RSI is testing its Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding since the December 06 2023 RSI Low and has already given 3 contact points for buy entries.
As a result this is where we are placing our 1st buy, with which we are targeting 83.00, being the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the Top and right under Resistance 2 (83.60). That will establish a new 'diverging' Channel Up (dotted lines), that will aim for a similar Higher High range (+12.15%) as the January 28 High.
Since however the price already broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we have to consider the possibility of a lower decline, which can indeed be as low as the bottom of the Channel Up, on a -9.00% decline (such as the January 03 Low). We believe though that in order to establish the new medium-term uptrend, the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) has to hold, so most likely this is the potential max downside extension. With that long, we will target the top of the (blue) Channel Up at 81.00, a little lower than the previous +14.40% Bullish Leg.
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