Crude Oil Target Equality ConfluenceIN this update we review the recent price action in the Crude Oil futures contract and identify the next high probability trading opportunities and price objectives to target
Cl11
Oil watching for resistance watching for a test of 77.07 for resistance in this area right now to confirm lower prices.
$45 is a long term break even for most producers inflation might have messed with that so possibly could support in the $50 - $55 range as an inflation adjusted target
USA injected as much FUD in the market as they can, my guess is to confuse, and create volatility in the market. No one is making trades based on FUD so this makes sense.
Inflation, inflation inflation is all we hear, and to ease that we get hit with FUD for lower oil prices.
Fud Indicators:
China tensions w/Taiwan - On going all year (note Us warship position right now might be worth a google)
China Tensions w/India - This happened most of the year with border disputes (war makes oil go up)
Russia Tensions w/Usa/Ukraine - Nordstrom supposedly not flowing, Russia ongoing dispute since forever
Omicron - not actually a threat, but they could walk this back at any time, this is the wild card they can spring at any time
Climate change - seems to pop up during seasonal change (EV go boom)
Global disputes happen all the time the media pick and chooses when they want's to dump into for us to read and create panic. Right now its just noise until we have boots on the ground somewhere, I will ignore.
Still bullishUKOIL Brent (Gulf oil) is still to rise.
Monthly ATR is is 107 pips. And this month we did only 39 percent so far.
I believe we will end the year at 54.33.
But there will be BIG reaction at yearly low 52.28 from where price released in March. I would exit there.
Close with daily bearish candle below 8 daily ema on daily chart will be a signal of trend change.
Crude oil rise is one of the factors why euro, aud, nzd, cnh had been going up too.
FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY
oil, cl, day trading for Mar 4th 2020Today not even going to talk direction or targets, we are inside the red zone consolidation until we are not, and when we are not that is very important information. So i will be looking for trades using the sloshing of the market until one end of the tub over flows.
oil, cl, day trading for Feb 26th 2020oil is finding new lows it has not seen in a very long time and for now will not post any lower targets below the ones on the chart, however look out below if the blue lines do not hold.
Will be seeing if the up side can gain any strength today on inventory numbers at 10:30
cl, oil, day trading for Feb 13th 2020 we are in a big range and will widen the red zone to the outside of this consolidation and until we move out of this range will look for small trends inside the big range, and no clear direction until this clears this zone. That said the down side looks the most likely in the big picture.
oil, cl, day trading for Jan 23rd 2020Well we hit my 56 area and things got interesting. I will be stalking a long term long side trade if it set sup, but now that we are under 56 for today the Red zone is very important and looks like lower we will go. So today will be leaning on any short set up, however a move back above 56 dot 25 I will look for day trad longs back into the high 56's to low 57's
cl, oil, day trading for Jan 15thEverything about today in oil was said yesterday. so linking below.
Oil has been very good as of late putting in a few days of balance and one day of break out, so keep an eye for red zone break or rejection!
ridethepig | Energy OverboughtA good time to update the Oil chart after the OPEC desperation leg. Those following the previously posted long-term macro chart will remember the breakout we have been tracking:
On the demand side, manufacturing remains sluggish and we are again outguessing signs of the effects on the demand side. Equities wont be able to hold Oil up for too much longer, this is starting to look clearer by the day with only one direction for Oil in the long-term.
For the flows I continue to sell rallies, this works nicely as a hedge versus the USD devaluation / reflationary theme for 1H20. A major breakdown here will cause for a reassessment of the USDCAD macro map for 2020.
Remember we traded some of the swing highs previously to the tick:
Overall, I see the case for meaningful Oil weakness in 2020, but if we get significant USD devaluation - maintaining longs will require patience and tolerance. Difficult to trade, for sure, but I still feel the bigger Oil risk lies to the downside. Thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments and etc.
Good luck all those selling rallies in Oil.
oil, cl, day trading for Dec 13th (Friday)Oil had that breakout of the range as I expected was coming soon and now the important level is if we hang out above this prior level top or move back down inside the prior range. This is the area we are testing as of this writing and is also the level I will be looking to trade long off of. It is a good level due to the defined risk reward levels.
cl, oil, day trading for Dec 4thoil is currently trading in a transition zone between two recent distributions and will have to make a choice between one or the other. if oil breaks from the red zone today then the first blue support or resistance will be a very likely target for either break.
I will be looking to trade a range day inside the red zone until a firm break of this zone is established.
oil, cl, day trading for Nov 13thoil has moved to the bottom of its bigger range and we get to see if that is support or further weakness steps in. The test off the bottom of the red zone or a break above red top both could be good trades back to the 57.5 area and we will still be in the consolidation.
As of this typing a bigger up move is happening and will give a clue as to further strength or exhaustion, will watch close for clues.
oil, cl, day trading for Nov 8ththe short term trend is short but the bottom of the red zone will either stop that trend or confirm today's direction so that is where my focus is
oil, cl, day trading for Nov 7thNice bounce in oil keeping it inside a big range, creating what i think will be a very sideways day.
A break below red zone low should see a move to 56.65 that is about the only edge I have today in oil.
oil, cl, trading for Nov 5thafter close oil has remained in a balance consolidation and now looking at the Red zone to be very important to the next move for oil.
Will look for a range bound trade inside the red zone and only lean the direction of the break out after it happens.
cl, oil, trading for Oct 20thToday due to oil inventor report at 10:30 and interest rate announcement at 2:00 the red zone will be larger, And this also makes since seeing that after RTH session yesterday we forma big balance zone.
I will be careful today but until we clear this zone will be looking for trades back and forth inside the red zone.
oil, cl, trading for Oct 29thwe are moving in a downward direction and could see this continue to at least 54.25 area. I would like to see a bounce up to short but will see how we act around the red zone. a move back above 55.60 should take us back into the upper distribution and have us enter chop around 56
oil, cl, trading for Oct 28thThe current move is long in a balancing consolidation and will need to move above the red zone for further up move . If we can not get back above I will be looking for oil to consolidate and then test lower prices again, and as a guess only I thin the 56 area could be oils happy area for a while.
cl, oil, trading for Oct 24thOil on a strong move as mentioned one should be coming and now doing a formation of a flag that could provide a further move higher. Inside the red zone are 2 of our prior support and resistance lines(blue) and figured i would leave them on the chart today.
I will be looking for a pull back down that I will be watching to see if it holds so I can get long, this might be a trade that goes past a day trade.
oil, cl, trading for Oct 22ndBig trading range that will break out sometime but until then will be shorting from top and long from bottom, will update if anything changes, other than that not much else to say
oil, cl, day trading for Sep 19thbig 2 point consolidation. I will be trading this range until it breaks. so long and short inside and with direction when it breaks. Very simple plan today
oil, cl, day trading for Aug 29thAfter oils up move it remains balanced in a big flag and I will be looking for bottom of range longs and top of range shorts, and will form no directional opinion until this range of 55.25 to 56.75 breaks.
cl, oil, day trading for Aug 27thThe session so far has been very balanced and is inside yesterday, so I will be looking for a sideways action to trade until we can move outside yesterday's action. the line drawn are containing that action and will give clues to the intraday scalping trades, if we break out will provide targets at that point.
will look for a move down to 54 and then be trying to get long up to 54.75, as my primary plan, and will revise this plan if this idea does not work out.
