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FEDFUNDS | Too TightThe point of TradingView (and being a human/trader in general) is to learn from your mistakes. I did make some mistakes. Perhaps this idea by itself is another mistake. But I cannot do any different. I must speak out about what I see. For the past year I tried to understand the pressures that are pushing prices higher, equities lower. It is important in analysis to avoid the mass, the "common truth". We all have expected a future of uncontrollable inflation, extreme prices and The Great Reset. The place where everything is too expensive to buy, and we will have to live with coupons. While some of these may come, it is important to analyze what isn't coming. Oil prices have been paired with the dollar (with the petrodollar). Many expect oil prices to explode even further, while "dollar is losing value" and "hyperinflation is imminent". Some charts however show a different picture... WIth the 2M chart warning of downward swing, and with the 3M chart showing divergence, the future of oil may not be as explosive as we may believe. But that is in relative terms. The strength of money seems fated to increase a lot more. Which in relative terms will constitute oil cost to be viable. In the main chart, it appears that oil is moving into what appears to be a Wyckoff Distribution. And oil is not the only one who will have trouble with the high-yield environment. Until now, the usual equity-bond investment scheme has performed tremendously. This trend is now changing. With a significant trend violation that occurred last year, it seems that we are entering a new period of investment strategies. From bonds as a hedge against equity weakness, investors should seek alternatives. The old way of doing things is broken. Commodities will be playing a significant role in the future of investments. It is in our power to find the new way of doing things. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori P.S. A link to the indicator I am using.
NYMEX:CL2!
by akikostas
The Oil WarOil is strictly tied to dollar price (petrodollar). World investors/consumers are under tremendous pressure, with absolute oil price exploding, coupled with an explosive dollar. They have to pay the cost for both... US investors enjoy a very competitive oil price (compared to treasuries). This year an investment in USOIL was very negatively performing compared to treasuries. Do note that there is a discrepancy between consumer oil (USOIL) and investment oil (USOIL/modified-yields). Rate hikes are not for inflation, they are for economic war advantage. During a war period, and in a deglobalized world, you need substantial purchasing power to import, and selectively export goods. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NYMEX:CL2!
by akikostas
2
What does RSI look like?Don't mind me, I am just messing around... I did an experiment a while ago, which I now repeat as a standalone idea. The method is simple, draw some "meaningful" trendlines on RSI which contain 3 touches with RSI. The 3 points on which RSI touches the trendline, draw a curve on the price chart. You now have a beautiful chart. Some experienced traders/coders out there could make an indicator that creates channels on RSI, which translates them on the price chart. With this comparison, we see what RSI is reading, how it is working. We can better understand what RSI trendlines translate to price. Moral of the chart: Oil price could be bull-flagging. I am reposting this because this is beautiful, harmonic... organic in a way... I added an extra line on this one. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NYMEX:CL2!
by akikostas
2
Crude oil will probably find its long term top soonAfter almost two and a half years, i decided to come back to tradingview again. Right now i am working for one of the largest commodity trading houses and covering our metals trading business in Asia. In the future, i will try to share as much as my personal views at here, also you all welcome to challenge and discuss. In the last few months, we see an incredible inflation increased in Europe and USA due to the Ukraine war. The gap of export push the price of almost all kinds of commodities to the historical high, including agriculture products, energy products, metals, etc. The people in Europe and USA are suffering from this sudden increasing of living cost, which also brings a lot of pressures to their governments. For crude oil, I think those leaders will give up to the inflations and try their best to buy Russian oil and Russian gas to lower down their domestic energy price. ( I believe that they will also buy a lot of corn and wheat from Russia ) In the other hand, the Fed's rate hiking decision will keep bringing pressures to the commodity market. So due to the economic cycle and potential cooling down of global energy crisis, I think Crude oil will find its long term top soon. At the technical side, i marked two resistances and one support line. For sure, the resistance zone will attract many bears to join the fight.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Nee_sh