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Does our LIS hold? Weekly CL Trade IdeaNYMEX:CL1! Macro Update: There are a lot of market moving events taking shape on the macro landscape. Peace negotiations between warring countries, reciprocal trade tariffs, and a US-Iran nuclear deal. We need not mention that any of these events may potentially turn market sentiment risk on or risk off. It all depends on how these all unfold. On the economic front, we have rate decisions from various central banks. Most central banks reiterate cautious cuts and turn hawkish amidst concerns about the rising inflation outlook. Central banks are also pointing towards rising uncertainty on the outlook itself as we mentioned above. It all depends on how events unfold. WTI Crude Oil Big Picture: Viewing a weekly full session WTI crude oil chart, we can see 3 weeks of one time framing up on the weekly chart starting Dec 30th, 2024. We then saw a rejection of uptrend and prices reverting to 2024 Value area. We can see four bearish weekly candlesticks from the week starting Jan 20th, 2025. Last week, the price action on the weekly timeframe formed an inverted hammer showing bearish pressure increasing on WTI crude oil. Our key LIS and key bull support show the confluence of multiple market generated levels has held up for the past 3 weeks. Traders take note that WTI crude oil futures contract has rolled over to April 2025 contract. Symbol: CLJ2025 In addition, DOE WTI inventory numbers will be released on Thursday 11am CT due to US President’s Day on Monday February 17th, 2025. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. 2025 mcVPOC: 72.82 Feb 2025 mcVAH: 7 2.48 2025 mcVAL: 70.56 Yearly Open/ LIS: 70.52 Key Bull Support/ Confluence Zone: 70.52 - 70.12 Scenario 1: Range bound week ahead In this scenario we expect range bound price action contained within Feb 2025 micro composite Value Area. Scenario 2: Risk-off sentiment shift prices below key LIS In this scenario, we may see a breakdown of our key bull support and Line in Sand. Price moves and stays below yearly open price, providing a possible shift lower towards composite volume point of control (CVPOC). Micro CME contracts allow for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Recap: CL and ES Weekly Plan analysis & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1! CME_MINI:ES1! In this trading trading view blog we will refer to our February 3, 2025, weekly trading plans. Our main idea for ES futures was to get long above yearly open, also our key LIS (Line in Sand). And our main idea for CL futures was to stay short below February monthly open targeting mcVAL and then waiting for an opportunity to get long at our key bullish support zone. Below we explain our thoughts behind these ideas and how we choose our key levels and the process to create our plan. ES Trade Idea: Key Levels and Strategies Amid Macro Uncertainty : From our ES trade plan, scenario 1 played out. The line in sand for long trades was Key LIS/Yearly open. Click on the link above to see how this played out! Our key levels for the trade idea noted in the blog were: (mcVAH) micro composite value area high: 6,134.25 Key LIS/Yearly Open: 5,949.25 (mcVAL) micro composite value area low: 5,914.25 (CVAH) Composite Value Area High: 5,924 mcVAH held as an area of initial resistance. Our neutral zone at 6,068.25 - 6,051.50 acted as a zone for pullback after initial push higher. The remaining week was choppy with some days more volatile and playing out per our scenario 1 in our trading plan. CL Trade Idea: Key Levels & Strategies Amid Volatility: From our CL trade plan, scenario 1 also played out. Why we favored this as scenario 1 was due to rejection confirmed at January 2025 mid range. The provided a good short opportunity below Jan 2025 mid or February monthly open towards our key levels as specified in the trading plan. We mentioned the following key levels in last week’s plan. Micro Composite Value Area High (mCVAH) January 2025: 76.00 January 2025 mid- range: 74.96 February Monthly Open: 74.14 Micro Composite Value Area Low (mCVAL) January 2025: 71.82 Yearly Open: 70.52 2024 Mid- Range: 70.40 mCVAL provided a good target for short trades, while Yearly open and 2024 Mid-range confluence at our key bull support provided a good spot to initiate the long trade idea. Following a consistent process can help traders stick to a trading approach that can help them achieve consistency. Losses are an inherent part of trading, executing the trade plan also involves weighing which scenario will play out on the hard right edge in real- time. However, our market analysis blogs are aimed to educate traders, showing whatever their methodology or approach, consistency in preparation and having a roadmap of important price levels will help them distinguish between getting caught in noise versus important areas to engage with markets.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Analyzing Our Crude Oil Trade Plan & Key LevelsNYMEX:CL1! This is our first blog recapping the trade plan from the prior week. In this blog, traders can take a sneak peek into why we choose and plot the levels we do on our charts. However, these are simply our thoughts and ideas on the market—we do not know what will happen. You should carefully consider whether this approach aligns with your own trading strategy and risk tolerance before making any decisions. Do you struggle with analysis paralysis in your trading? Don’t worry—we will help you develop a process that you can customize and apply to your own market approach. Markets by nature have randomness and uncertainty built in. Markets move based on the collective psyche of the participants. These footprints left behind by the collective participants analyzed through volume profiling and multiple time frames is what provides us with our selected support and resistance zones. To help you better understand our chart setup, here’s how we define key zones and indicators: On our charts, we use color-coded zones to highlight key market levels: Green zones indicate bull support areas. Red zones represent bearish support areas. Blue zones act as neutral zones but serve as important inflection points. The Line in the Sand (LIS) is a crucial reference point: A single LIS can be used to validate both long and short trade ideas. Alternatively, there may be separate LIS levels—one confirming long trades above it and another confirming short trades below it. Some other terms that you will commonly find in our blogs are: VPOC (Volume Point of Control): The price level with the highest traded volume within a given volume profile. VAH (Value Area High): The upper boundary of the value area, typically representing the +1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution. VAL (Value Area Low): The lower boundary of the value area, typically representing the -1 standard deviation level in the volume distribution. Value Area: The range where approximately 70% of the total traded volume occurs, falling within one standard deviation of the distribution. Important and significant levels on our charts are marked. You can see on the crude oil chart, that we consider mid ranges of defined year, quarter, month, week as significant areas of interest and reaction by market participants. We also give importance to HVN (High Volume Nodes) and LVN (Low Volume Nodes) and how price usually reacts to these visible distributions of high and low volumes on the volume profile. Our analysis begins with four key questions that guide our market perspective and decision-making process: What has the market done? What is it trying to do? How good of a job is it doing? What is more likely to happen from here? These questions are not intended to decipher the reasons behind market movements or predict outcomes based on personal bias. Instead, they provide a structured framework using Auction Market Theory, Volume Profile, and market-generated significant levels to develop a trade plan—whether for the day or the week. This trade plan does not dictate specific trades to take; rather, it serves as a roadmap, outlining the key areas where we may want to engage with the market. To illustrate the importance of structured market analysis and preparation, let's review how our recent crude oil trade plans have played out: Week of January 27, 2025 – Crude Oil Plan Recap : The initial trade plan played out, but a pullback occurred. Buyers stepped in, pushing prices back toward the Blue zone (also the LIS for longs and shorts). Long positions were only valid after confirming a reclaim of the January 2025 mid-range. Crude oil then moved sharply toward our key bull support zone before rebounding higher. This completed the trade plan scenario outlined in red. Week of January 13, 2025 – Key Takeaways : We identified the start of bullish momentum in crude oil following a long Q4 2024 consolidation. Two short trade scenarios were outlined, with the first playing out as expected. Reviewing past trade plans helps traders develop a structured market preparation process. This analysis was featured in the Editor’s Pick, mapping out key levels and our thought process. As we mentioned earlier, we do not have a crystal ball but we do have insights when planning for the week. If you are incorporating this weekly plan, please also monitor and be ready to adjust with new information that is provided on the hard right edge. If you click the play button on most of our trade plans and just consider that week’s price movement, you may notice that our plans have thoughts and efforts put in them.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Crude oil remains on a bearish pathOil prices have fallen noticeably since Trump’s last minute deal to delay tariffs. Yesterday’s rebound on Trump's "maximum pressure" plan for Iran has proven to be short-lived. The negative effect of a US-China trade war on demand, as well as rising global supplies, is what is holding back prices. Even if Trump hadn’t delayed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, when considering both supply and demand factors, the overall impact on crude oil prices may well have been limited anyway. In any event, oil prices extended their losses after the OPEC+ agreed to stick to its policy and raise output gradually from April. Prices have fallen further today on the back of the latest inventories report from the US. A big 8.7 million barrel build was reported, which surprised the market given only a 2.4m build was expected. Against a backdrop of rising OPEC+ supply and the potential for increased non-OPEC supply growth, mainly in the US, the crude oil forecast remains modestly bearish. From a technical perspective, crude oil remains in a modest downtrend, with WTI consistently forming lower highs since September 2023. A brief breakout above this trend in January met strong resistance just below $80, pushing prices back under the trend line by month-end. With the bearish bias reaffirmed and WTI slipping below the 200-day moving average again, downside risks remain dominant. In terms of support, the area between $70.00 to $70.70 marks a key battle ground. This is where the price of oil last staged a rally from at the back end of last year. If we see a bounce here, I will then look for that bounce to fade as prices come up to test some key resistance levels… Key resistance levels to watch include the recently broken support at $72.50, the 200-day average at $74.30 and the psychologically significant $75.00 mark. The bearish trend line hovers around $76.00. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by FOREXcom
CL Trade Idea: Key Levels & Strategies Amid VolatilityNYMEX:CL1! With Trade War 2.0 unfolding, managing risk in futures trading is more crucial than ever. One way to mitigate risk is by utilizing micro CME contracts , allowing for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money. Crude Oil Futures: It’s the start of a new month. We saw our last week’s idea “scenario 1” partially play out before prices pulled back higher towards our neutral LIS. As mentioned above, it is our opinion that current situations and macro news may result in heightened volatility, so it is important to trade what you see and not what you think. Do not get fixated on your view on the market. Be ready to shift and adapt as the markets evolve on the hard right edge. Instead of recapping and presenting a macro update today, we will shift our focus on the charts. Looking purely at price, time, volume, and key levels to create a plan for the week. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Micro Composite Value Area High (mCVAH) January 2025 : 76.00 January 2025 mid- range: 74.96 February Monthly Open: 74.14 Micro Composite Value Area Low (mCVAL) January 2025 : 71.82 Yearly Open: 70.52 2024 Mid- Range: 70.40 Scenario 1: Rejection confirmation at January 2025 Mid Price has attempted to push above January 2025 mid and was rejected. This was a key level of interest to validate longs in our last week’s trade plan. Rejection of this level and price now below monthly open. There is room for prices to shift lower towards mcVAL Jan 2025 and test of key bull support at yearly open and 2024 mid range. Scenario 2: mcVAL 2025 to act as intermediate support If we see this level hold, in our opinion, Crude oil may be establishing a new range capped within mcVAH and mcVAL Jan 2025 until we see a break of either side. That said, intra day volatility may increase with headline news impacting prices. As always it is paramount to manage your risk as losses are an inherent part of trading. What are you focusing on amid all the headline news? We'd love to hear your thoughts!
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Crude Oil Trade Idea: Bounce from Support or Rally to $80?Macro Update Index futures sold off during overnight trading as market sentiment turned risk-off. Newswires reported that, after Colombia denied entry to two U.S. deportation aircraft, President Trump announced emergency tariffs of 25% on all Colombian imports, with plans to increase them to 50% next week. Additionally, The Wall Street Journal noted growing support among President Trump's advisors to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday to initiate negotiations. Meanwhile, Chinese startup DeepSeek is challenging U.S. dominance in the AI sector by introducing a low-cost model rivaling OpenAI's o1. This development may intensify geopolitical and economic tensions. Adding to the unease, Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs missed expectations. Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, below the forecast of 50.1. Markets in China and most of Asia will remain closed starting Tuesday for the Lunar New Year holiday, which could lead to lower regional liquidity. Looking ahead, the week features several high-impact events: Wednesday, January 29: Federal Reserve interest rate decision and the first FOMC press conference of 2025. Bank of Canada interest rate decision. Thursday, January 30th: ECB interest rate decision Preliminary Q4 GDP data (QoQ). Friday, January 31st: Core PCE Price Index (Dec). Crude Oil Futures Update Our prior trade idea from January 13 played out well, with Scenario 1 materializing. While prices briefly approached $80, crude oil futures have since retreated to trade near the $74 handle. As we close out January, here’s an updated map of key levels to watch: Key Observations: On the chart, we can see a downtrend channel after the recent push higher in crude oil. Our blue zone is our LIS (73.65 - 74 zone). We see the market pulling back towards the confluence of 2024 VAH, 2024 mid range and 2025 yearly open. This is our key support for bulls to take long trade. Scenario 1: Down and Back Up Watch for a pullback toward the key confluence zone from our LIS. A bounce from this confluence zone could offer a strong opportunity for bulls to take long trades, targeting higher levels. Scenario 2: Rally Toward $80 If prices reclaim the January 2025 mid-range and confirm bullish setups, long trades targeting a move back toward monthly highs in the $80 range may develop. For risk management during volatile conditions, traders can consider Micro Crude Oil Futures . Managing risk is paramount, as losses are an inherent part of trading. This week’s data releases, geopolitical developments, and tariff announcements are likely to shape market sentiment. Stay cautious and adapt to new information as it unfolds. Risk management remains the cornerstone of success in volatile markets. Not confident to incorporate these into your trading plan? Why not incorporate our trade ideas to your trade plan in TradingView and CME’s paper trading competition; “The Leap”.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
1
WTI set for breakdown amid supply, demand concernsAlthough oil prices were trading higher at the time of this writing, it is becoming increasingly difficult to foresee a big rally at this stage, without any supply-side shocks. WTI's price action has been quite heavy as it continues to make lower lows and lower highs. While it has held its own around the December 2023 levels of around $67.00 to $68.00 area, this could prove to be a temporary respite before we potentially see a bigger breakdown. Not only has oil broken the key $69.30 to $70.00 support range, which is now holding as resistance, sentiment towards oil is increasingly turning bearish amid growing signs of excess surplus from non-OPEC. Indeed, the oil market is heading for a surplus next year, according to the IEA. The agency is forecasting an excess of over a million barrels per day, mainly due to faltering demand from China. Once the driver of global oil consumption, China has seen demand shrink for six consecutive months, largely as its economy pivots to electric vehicles and high-speed rail. Growing supplies from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana keep the market well-supplied, says IEA. Demand growth this year and next will stay subdued due to slower economic growth and clean energy transitions. OPEC+ plans to cautiously restart production, with a 180,000-barrel-per-day increase set for January, though they’ll reassess in December. With supply growth outpacing demand, the market is likely to stay comfortably stocked well into 2025. Against this backdrop, crude oil looks set for a sharp drop after drifting lower in recent weeks. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by FOREXcom
COT Strategy - Crude Oil LongsDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL again this week. To clarify, this was setup last week also, and triggered me long this week via a CCI divergence long trigger. Based on this weeks COT strategy analysis, I think this is a nice market for further upside and will look to enter again via 18MA & 10H8C MAC entry methods. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal. Net Positioning: Max long of last 3 years - bullish. Small Spec Index: Buy Signal. Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries. Front Month Premium Market. True Seasonal up to Mid October. Supplementary Indicators: Stochastic. Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a Daily long trigger. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Crude Oil - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal OI Analysis: Generally last few weeks OI has drifted lower while CM's adding to longs - bullish. CM's approaching extreme long positioning, but not quite there yet. True Seasonal: True seasonal to go up until mid October - bullish. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Front Month Premium - Bullish Supplementary Indicators: %R & Stochastic Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLZ2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Upside Ahead for Crude Oil - COT Strategy LongDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence. COT Strategy LONG Crude Oil (CL) My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in CL if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe. COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal OI Analysis: Down move since July and recent consolidation has seen CM's getting more long. Valuation: Undervalued VS GOld True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency for oil to go up to mid October. Front Month Premium: Front month delivery contracts selling at premium to further out contracts. This is bullish, and is a sign that we could see a commercially driven bull move. COT Small Spec Index: Buy Signal Supplementary Indicators: Acc/Dist Buy Signal Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside. Good luck & good trading.
NYMEX:CLV2024Long
by Tradius_Trades
Oil (CL) Should Continue Lower to Build an Impulsive StructureShort Term Elliott Wave View in Oil (CL) suggests that cycle from 4.12.2024 high is in progress as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Down from 4.12.2024 high, wave (1) ended at 72.48 and rally in wave (2) ended at 84.55. The commodity has turned lower in wave (3) with internal subdivision as another impulse in lesser degree. Down from wave (2), wave (i) ended at 83.07 and rally in wave (ii) ended at 83.45. Oil then extended lower in wave (iii) towards 81.25 and wave (iv) ended at 82.16. Final leg wave (v) ended at 80.81 which completed wave ((i)) in higher degree. Wave ((ii)) unfolded in an expanded flat structure where wave (a) ended at 83.74. Wave (b) lower ended at 80.22, and rally in wave (c) ended at 83.82 which completed wave ((ii)). Oil has turned lower in wave ((iii)) ended at 76.40 low. The market built an expanded flat correction as wave ((iv)) finishing at 78.60 high and turned lower again. CL broke below wave ((iii)) to end wave ((v)) of 1 at 74.59 low and also we ended wave 1 of (3). Up from wave 1, the market bounce in a zig zag correction ending wave 2 at 78.88 high and starting wave 3 of (3) to the downside. After 5 swings lower, wave ((i)) of 3 completed at 71.67 low and currently we are calling 3 swings higher to end wave ((ii)) pullback before resuming lower. Therefore, we expect further downside to complete wave ((iii)) of 3. Near term, as far as pivot at 78.88 high stays intact, expect rallies to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further downside.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
Crude Oil Trade Idea for Next Week - CL CLK2024 USOIL Crude OilThe weekly candle close this week respected the bearish weekly volume imbalance, respected the bearish weekly orderblock, and failed to close above the previous weeks high. For this reason, I am targeting the PWL as a DOL. I will be looking for price to trade up into H4 premium arrays and reject from them. Once I see bearish arrays being respected on the H4, I will look for m15 bearish displacement to confirm entry with the PWL as the target.
NYMEX:CLK2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
CL WTI Crude Oil ShortMy weekly bias is for price to trade up to previous weeks highs, but Mondays price action has me leaning towards a pullback before we trade up mid/late week. Today's candle was quite bearish, so I am looking for price to trade down to Monday's lows, and possibly trade into the untapped lows from several daily candles formed last week. I want to see price trade into and respect a bearish premium array to trigger me to look for short entry on m5/m15.
NYMEX:CLJ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
Crude oil back about $96 a barrel With the slowing of oil production and conflict at the Nile, I think that oil prices are going to increase, if the fed decides to cut or leave interest rates unchanged this may weaken the USD and strengthen other currencies creating more demand for oil and if inventory continues to lessen you will see a further surge in oil prices. otherwise, if the fed raises interest rates next week and productions issues come to resolve oil prices will begin to drop and I will update this post with a bearish Analysis.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by jewlstagara