Crude oil: A good short hereCrude oil is running out of steam to the upside. It has closed the gap from the last decline and presents a good RR short here.
Cl_f
Huge Level for Crude$42 have been a major support zone over the years -- this level is huge and will determine where it trades over the coming months. Daily bollinger bands are extremely tight too, so a big move is likely.
Elliott Wave View: Oil (CL_F) Extending HigherLight Crude Oil 45 minutes chart below shows that the commodity has ended cycle from July 6 high as wave 2 at 38.56 low. The pullback unfolded as a flat Elliott Wave Structure. From July 6 high, wave ((a)) ended at 39.90 low. The bounce in wave ((b)) ended at 41.08 high. Afterwards, oil declined lower in wave ((c)), which ended at 38.56 low. This ended 3 waves pullback in larger degree wave 2. From there, the commodity extended higher and broke above previous July 6 high. This confirms that wave 2 is already in place and the next leg higher is already in progress.
Up from wave 2 low, wave ((i)) ended at 40.77 high. The pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 39.07 low. The commodity then continued to resume higher in wave (i) of ((iii)). The subdivision of wave (i) unfolded as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave Structure. Up from wave ((ii)) low, wave i ended at 39.88 high and wave ii dip ended at 39.13 low. Wave iii then ended at 40.86 high and wave iv pullback ended at 40.37 low. The commodity then ended the push higher in wave v at 40.77 high. Afterwards, 3 waves pullback in wave (ii) ended at 40.08 low. While above 38.56 low, expect dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swings. If oil manages to break above June 23 high (41.63), it will show bullish sequence from June 15 low. The upside target would be 100% – 123.6% extension at 44.20-45.90.
Elliott Wave View: Oil Looking To Break HigherLight Crude Oil 45 minutes chart shows that the commodity has ended wave (2) pullback at 37.09 low. From there, the commodity extended higher, with the rally unfolding as a diagonal Elliott Wave structure. Up from that wave (2) low, wave ((i)) ended at 39.35 high and wave ((ii)) dip ended at 37.50 low. Oil then extended higher in wave ((iii)), which ended at 39.89 high. The pullback in wave ((iv)) then ended at 38.85 low.
The commodity then continued to resume higher in wave ((v)), which is unfolding as an ending diagonal Elliott Wave Structure. Up from wave ((iv)) low, wave (i) ended at 40.58 high and wave (ii) dip ended at 39.05 low. Wave (iii) then ended at 41.08 high. Wave (iv) pullback ended at 39.90 low. Currently, wave (v) is in progress and can see another high. This would end 5 waves rally in larger degree wave 1 and also the cycle from June 25 low. Afterwards, a bigger 3 waves pullback in wave 2 should follow before rally resumes higher. As long as pullback stays above 37.09 low, expect wave 2 dips to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swings. If oil manages to break above June 23 high (41.63), it will show bullish sequence from June 15 low. The upside target would be 100% – 123.6% extension at 44.20-45.90.
Elliott Wave View: Oil Ended Cycle from April LowOil (CL_F) has just ended cycle from 4.29.2020 low as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from 4.29.2020 low, wave 1 ended at 23.4 and pullback in wave 2 ended at 20.84. Oil resumes higher again in wave 3 towards 38.18, wave 4 dips ended at 35.88, and wave 5 ended at 40.48. The 5 waves move higher ended wave (A) in higher degree. The instrument is now pulling back in wave (B) to correct cycle from 4.29.2020 low before the rally resumes.
Internal subdivision of wave (B) is unfolding as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. A zigzag is a 3 waves structure with 5-3-5 subdivision. On the 30 minutes chart below, we can see a 5 waves down from Wave (A). Down from 40.48, wave ((i)) ended at 37.07 and wave ((ii)) ended at 39.91. Wave ((iii)) ended at 35.41, wave ((iv)) ended at 36.79, and wave ((v)) ended at 34.48. This 5 waves down ends wave A in higher degree. Wave B bounce is in progress to correct decline from 6.8.2020 high in 3, 7, or 11 swing before Oil turns lower again. As far as pivot at 40.48 high stays intact, expect any rally to fail in 3, 7, or 11 swing for more downside or 3 waves pullback at least.
Crude oil is a screaming BUY here!Crude oil is holding the support of the prior low and has broken out of the wedge. This puppy is ready to run! Long crude here!
Elliott Wave View: Crude Oil (CL_F) Sellers Remain In ControlDecline from April 23, 2019 high in Oil (CL_F) remains in progress as a 5 waves impulse. Down from April 23, 2019 high, wave (1) ended at 50.6 and wave (2) bounce ended at 65.65. Oil then resumed lower in wave (3) to 19.46, and wave (4) bounce ended at 29.21. Short term chart below shows wave (4) at 29.21 which ended on April 4. Oil has broken below March 30 low (19.27), suggesting wave (5) has resumed. The internal subdivision of wave (5) is unfolding as a 5 waves impulse structure. Down from April 4 high, wave 1 ended at 25.28. Bounce in wave 2 unfolded as an expanded Flat where wave ((a)) ended at 28.24, wave ((b)) ended at 23.54, and wave ((c)) of 2 ended at 28.36.
Wave 3 is in progress and unfolding as another 5 waves of lesser degree. Down from 28.36, wave ((i)) ended at 22.03 and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at 24.57. Oil then resumed lower in wave ((iii)) as an impulse and ended at 19.20 while bounce in wave ((iv)) ended at 20.60. Near term, expect Oil to extend lower in wave ((v)) before ending wave 3. Afterwards, it should bounce in wave 4 then resume lower 1 more leg. As far as pivot at 29.21 high on April 4 remains intact, expect Oil to see further downside.
CRUDE Futures CL_FTarget remains at 20. In hindsight, this could have been foreseen as far back as October 2018.
$CL_F heavily oversoldOil heavily oversold, and price action very similar to previous approaches to the $50 line in the sand.
Suggest a buy at 50.80, SL 49.90, target 60. Or even start now (52.63)
USOIL Short Scenario Planning for the week ahead
Would look for shorts if Last weeks range low is broken
Short Trigger on a retest back above "support"
WTI crude holding key support for now, could squeeze shortsWTI crude oil has been testing the key psychologically-important $50 handle and long-term support for a few days now after a sharp drop on macro concerns (coronavirus hurting demand). Clearly prices are oversold in the short-term, but a more profound recovery will not come as surprise. Bulls need to see a daily close above short-term resistance at $51. This would also push oil prices above the bearish trend line seen on hourly and other intra-day charts, potentially triggered a short-squeeze rally.
𝗖𝗿𝘂𝗱𝗲 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲: $CL_F Daily. Recession WarningLoses 50.51-51.00 support area and recession closer than many think
USOIl at an Inflection againBit of a short term swing play here. USOIL is at a nice inflection area. 57.45 is the Line in sand.
1. We manage to get above it and hold we have a shot at 58.80s ( 57.90, 58.30 being intermediate destinations )
2. we fail to clear that , we look to trade the rotation back to 56.90s
USOIL TradingviewCrude is balancing in the region of 2 days of balance. Bias remains bullish for now because of higher value area and the wick and hold of the 56.65 areas.hypos for today
1. need a hold above 57.20 areas for a test of 57.60, 57.90
2. bearish below the hold of 56.65 regions for a test of 56.35 , 56.20 and lower to 55.80
USOIL - Hitting getting into a short term confluenceUSOIL is getting into the short term confluence area, (marked in red zone) , hold into that can lead to a rotation on the downside to test back the areas of 54.15 and lower. Hold above that the trend changes to positive for a test back to 55.30 areas
CL_F tested an interesting support zoneCL_F tested an interested support zone at 54.20 areas. this is a good reference and looking for this test to hold. we will look for a bullish view above the 54.90 areas. Below are the scenarios:
1. hold above 54.90 areas, look to test 55.20 and 55.90 areas.
2. fail to hold 54.40 and break below 54.20 areas for a larger inflection towards 53.20 and 52.90 areas
CL_F testing a good support baseCrude is testing a good long term support reference at 55.80 areas, if we break through we are in for a swift test of 55.2 and 54.90.
thesis invalidated on hold above 56.20 areas
USOIl Crude at an interesting Confluencein USOIl 56.75-56.60 remains as the trend decider for today, we have marked an interesting low at 56.33 ( previous top references).
theme remains bearish below the trend decider. Break below 56.33 can see an accelerated fall to test 55.80 areas.
Hold above trend decider we have a chance to test 57.30 areas
CL_F breaking outside the micro compositeCL_F poked the areas of 58.70-90 for long , now for a hold above should go on to test 59.4 59.70 areas. failure to hold that alternate scenarios for a test failure and a test of a larger swing down to test 57 areas.
CL_F Trade plan- Range bound Play?CL_F has seen a lot of volatility, does it cool off now? well we dont know. But here is the plan.
Looking for a range bound rotation and pullback trades within the support and the resistance zones.
Break outside the areas for potential target zones.marked in red and blue ( red - Short term references and Blue Long term references)
Crude to Fill the GapSimple gap-fill play on CL_F/US oil - sell it down to 54.7s and then take a long.
