CL_F tested an interesting support zoneCL_F tested an interested support zone at 54.20 areas. this is a good reference and looking for this test to hold. we will look for a bullish view above the 54.90 areas. Below are the scenarios:
1. hold above 54.90 areas, look to test 55.20 and 55.90 areas.
2. fail to hold 54.40 and break below 54.20 areas for a larger inflection towards 53.20 and 52.90 areas
Cl_f
USOIl Crude at an interesting Confluencein USOIl 56.75-56.60 remains as the trend decider for today, we have marked an interesting low at 56.33 ( previous top references).
theme remains bearish below the trend decider. Break below 56.33 can see an accelerated fall to test 55.80 areas.
Hold above trend decider we have a chance to test 57.30 areas
CL_F Trade plan- Range bound Play?CL_F has seen a lot of volatility, does it cool off now? well we dont know. But here is the plan.
Looking for a range bound rotation and pullback trades within the support and the resistance zones.
Break outside the areas for potential target zones.marked in red and blue ( red - Short term references and Blue Long term references)
CL_F Trade ideas for TodayExpecting a hold of the 58.7-58.50 areas. for a test back to the target areas marked in dashed lines as a primary scenario.
secondary scenario - Break below that expect to test the downside target areas.
blue dashed lines- ( Long term references)
Red Dashed lines ( Short term references)
#CL_F #crude areas to watch outwe have these two references from larger timeframes in crude today.
1. 58.80- get there and hold below we move lower for test of 57.50, 56.25
2. 60.65 - hold above that we go on to test 63, 64.50 areas.
too many players eager to fade the gap up.. so we go to be careful :)
Elliott Wave View Calling for More Downside in OilElliott Wave view on Oil (CL_F) suggests a 5 waves decline from April 22 peak ($66.6) which ended wave (1) at $60.04. In the chart below, we can see wave (2) bounce ended at $63.32 at the blue box. The internal of wave (2) unfolded as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from $60.04, wave W ended at $62.95, wave X ended at $60.66, and wave Y ended at $63.32.
Oil has since turned lower in wave (3). However, it needs to break below wave (1) at $63.32 to confirm the next leg lower and avoid a double correction. The initial decline from $63.32 appears impulsive and ended wave 1 at $60.64. Wave 2 bounce is in progress to correct the cycle from $63.32 peak before the decline resumes. Potential target for wave 2 is 50% – 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of wave 1 at $62 – $62.3. We don’t like buying Oil and expect sellers to appear in 3, 7, or 11 swing as far as pivot at $63.32 stays intact. A break below wave (1) at $63.32 will confirm the next leg lower in CL_F. A 100% extension target from April 22 peak can see Oil reaching $55.3 – $56.8 at least.
My forecast on CL this weekFinally a daily close above 54.75 for the bulls. Looking for a retest of this area to hold and continue the trend up. As long as the lower trendline and 18 day sma hold, we most likely grind higher to the 57.44 target I have then ~60. Losing the 54.75 on a closing basis would put selling pressure on oil and most likely test the 53 area.
As always let price discovery be your guide :-).
Cl thoughts for tomoz Tuesday 13th Nov 2018Chopped up by CL today, v clear now on the daily though.
Check out the hourly from the 14th of Feb this year. Look how precisely the bottom of today drop bounced from the start of the leg. I think it should rally from here, but needs to stay under the 15 min level to keep shorting from this area..... i think! (famous last words)