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Downside target was reached for Crude OilFor those that were in this trade with us, we posted our crude oil forecast over a week ago when a lot of forecasts were getting pretty bullish. We got short crude oil looking for a move lower to the 48.33 level at minimum and our target was the 43.62 level. The focus was a break of the 47.31 level that enabled price action to move more swiftly to the downside.
Our target was reached at the 43.62 level to close our trade. Neutral for now and time to re-evaluate.
US OIL ABCD PatternIt will be interesting to see how price behaves near $44/43. If it holds n tries to bounce back it will confirm ABCD pattern with the beginning of "D" wave. Target should be $50.80/ 53. Look for Doji or Bullish Engulfing candle before entering long or divergence in any Oscillators.
CRUDE OIL Elliott waveGlobal news can say whatever you want . It is not physical oil-2.80% . This are futures . and future's price is constituted by those who trade these futures - banks. There are 3 major traders in the market of oil-2.80% - JPMorgan , Goldman Sachs, Citi, in their turn they are getting money from the Federal Reserve System . And the Federal Reserve System has only two targets - to keep holding dollar as a the world's reserve currency and to make it stronger. That why in the first quarter of 2017 the oil-2.80% price will be 12
Oil More Downside Suggested on Weekly & May Impact MarketsOil may retest 50 week moving avg. (bottom of Kumo) or test the Ichimoku base line. Markets may respond to oil in low 40's.
Many oil experts have been claiming oil should turn around in late '16/early '17. The weekly Ichimoku seems to agree. But it also suggest more downside before end of the year.
Technical Breakdown in Oil pricesWTI Crude Oil has seen a technical break lower, although momentum has not accompanied the later part of the move.
A rising 4-hour channel broke down last Friday, with momentum accelerating to the downside, and a rising trendline from February lows was seen broken during the FOMC Statement on Wednesday.
Retracements in the pair may now be capped by resistance found at the $49.69 price point, reflecting the highest daily close in the fourth quarter of 2015. A secondary level is found at $50.18 representing May highs. The $50.00 price point provides resistance as a psychological level.
The stronger uptrend witnessed from this year's lows dictates a consolidation period may take place prior to a broader decline.
Almost hit my 18% goal. Risk increases into resistanceEarly May we discussed that bulls were attempting to absorb supply and that prices should breakout and test the next level of resistance near $13.00. It has been a great 14% trade; however, cumulative demand is contracting. It does appears to be worth the risk of giving profits back. Anticipate we will start to see some liquidation to protect profits and reduce risk.
Oil Breaks up ChannelI sent out a bullish chart on Oil on Friday, as the instrument went back to retest highs.
As per the chart, it did not confirm the bullish break by taking out the 46.04 level, for the ABC up.
We have however, taken out the lows, and broken the up channel. This is a strong short setup.
It remains to be seen if we retest the upper channel line of the new down channel, currently we are retesting the broken channel. So I will be looking for reversal candles to enter a short position, but allowing the instrument some time (at least into NY) to see if it can retrace further higher to get a better entry.