Bombed out Natural Gas Play1. Compare the chart to the Wall Street Cheat Sheet and looks like we're in the Depression phase. Quiet on Twitter and bitter sentiment on LSE/ADVFN, nice contrarian signals and not a crowded trade.
2. POC at 1.4p. Sharp capitulation from January to Mid-March where RSI hit 18 and has recovered slightly.
3. Upcoming catalysts: OGA 32nd Offshore Licensing results expected by end of June 2020. Look at JOG SP reaction from last July. Selene drilling decision and Pensacola well investment decision could drop this year or early next year (both partnered with Shell). Dewar farm-out pending but likely to be delayed for the foreseeable given COVID.
4. ATOW valued at £10.2m, Allenby estimate £12m net cash by end of 2020. Fundraise completed last year, expected to see them through to end of 2021.
5. Broker targets: always take with a pinch of salt, but ultimately these get bandied about by rampers --Allenby re-confirmed in January 2020 a target of 8.3p and 16.7p (based on success for Selene, Pensacola and Dewar (assuming a 50% farm-out of Dewar).
6. "Read-across": ECO investors will know that the SP does react to success in neighbouring acreages (e.g. Guyana) and this could happen re Pensacola given the Darach Central-1 discovery in late 2019.
