NQ Power Range Report with FIB Ext - 3/22/2022 SessionCME_MINI:NQM2022
- PR High: 14391.25
- PR Low: 14363.75
Evening Stats (As of 12:10 AM)
- Gap: = N/A
- Session Open ATR: 445.27
- Volume: 22k
- Open Int: 205k
- Trend Grade: Neutral
- From ATH: -14.50% (Rounded)
Key Levels (Rounded - Think of these as ranges)
- Long: 14675
- Mid: 13500
- Short: 12390
Keep in mind this is not speculation or a prediction. Only a report of the Power Range with Fib extensions for target hunting. Do your DD! You determine your risk tolerance. You are fully capable of making your own decisions.
Cloud
Trending with double cloudsThis method of analysis came as an idea after digging into cloud strategies and indicators.
The authors I studied were Nick Engles ECC11strategy, Takahashi Akita Fast cloud strategy and Sanya Vellin double small (fast) and large (slow) cloud strategy.
Engles evaluates from 4 hour and 1 hour time frame looking for trend and momentum and then to 15 minute looking for a change in momentum indicated by a Tenkan and Kijunsen cross over in the 15 minute, utilising structure and institutionals as guides to price potential.
Takahashi uses a faster cloud with less separation and watches for the price and the Tenkan and kijunsen to cross the cloud and be stacked in the correct order to indicate a buy or sell position.
Sanya uses the double cloud without Tenkan, Kijun or Chikousen and waits for price and fast cloud to cross the big cloud in the correct stack to indicate a potential.
The two latter take note of trend in the higher time scales but strong local trends are indicated by clouds in the up or down trend and stacked T over K and both over cloud the opposite for down trend, or in Sanya’s case, fast cloud over slow or fast under slow.
My idea was to utilise all three to indicate continuation or potential strong retracement
Slow cloud and fast cloud but only using Tenkan, Kijun and Chikousen lines on the slow cloud
So like Nick’s strategy we go up 2 time scales from our trading scale to start an overall view of the market trend and momentum. NB When using an iPad in TradingView there a useful tool ‘!’ To click on which shows the price progression and trend in a simple graph for the day or whatever time period you choose to work in.
So as we focus in on the 15 minute scale we may see a strong continuation indicated by fast cloud over slow, T over K and above fast cloud and price over those and Chikousen above all but lagging of course
Or we may see a strong change in direction, indicated by fast cloud crossing slow cloud. If it’s an up trend then blue Tenkan is over Red Kijun and also heading in the direction of fast cloud and above it. Price is above T & K and green Chikousen is above all but lagging. A down trend cross over see the opposite fast diving down thru slow cloud, blue below red and green plunging down and lagging.
Another handy guide is the tool that indicates the platform assessment of current trend for the currency pair of interest in terms of buy or sell, weak or strong.
So if your assessment agrees - well and good.
Attention to trend in terms of Elliot waves - higher highs and lower lows or the reverse indicated what significance one might put even where a direction change is a strong indication. A retracement may be only short lived for instance and it may be wise to wait for the change to the continuation of the long trend and see a strong indication of continuation for instance.
The strong indicates are slow to appear and not too frequent, so when you can’t find a trade indicator then one can switch to the slower cloud and use Engels strategy to find a an opening scalping trade for instance
Or one could chose to use only the fast cloud and switch on its T and K lines and find something in the mid range on an hour timescale and capture 20 or 30 pips perhaps.
Risk management and psychological discipline must remain at the forefront as usual
As a side note I just watched Baurjan Tulegenov (Ch10 and go live educator) present a seminar on the Ignite harmonics scanner 2 - it functions in a similar way to the double cloud. Strong trends are indicated by a layered cloud protocol with price and other indicator lines above and below indicating a buy/sell opportunity. The system integrates volume and has a general overarching principle of ‘swim with the whales’ ie move with the banks and institutions and not against.
We are employing probability to guide our decisions to buy and sell and the market more probably flows with the big fish. Go with and enhance the probability and manage the risk to gain and maximise profit and hold your nerve at all times.
Good talk and intro to a useful strategy,(he’s Russian but with excellent English and not overhyped and frantic like many others) I will keep his stuff in mind when using the double cloud and may integrate volume into the system.
Prosperous pip catching
Dave
BTCUSD Analysis By AVNGL (SECOND TRY)This second analysis test on BTC/USD It is trying to expose in a simplified way thetrend changes in daily candles for the basic understanding of this very funny and volatile wave market.
Remember that the markets have to be studied for their cyclical and undulating nature, in the price/emotion relationship.
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(ANNOUNCMENT) & (REMINDER):
Last Sunday I could not publish the largest analysis that I have saved and the first to expose with greater seriousness, however next Sunday I will be ready with better and more details for any type of market studen
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II hope to be of help.
A huge greeting, and have a good week.
SAP SE (SAP.de) bearish scenario:The technical figure Descending Triangle can be found in the German company SAP SE (SAP.de) at daily chart. SAP SE is a German multinational software corporation, that develops enterprise software to manage business operations and customer relations. The company is especially known for its ERP software. SAP is the largest non-American software company by revenue, the world's third-largest publicly-traded software company by revenue, and the largest German company by market capitalisation. The Descending Triangle has broken through the support line on 28/01/2022, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 26 days towards 100.00 EUR. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 125.32 EUR if you decide to enter this position.
SAP said on Thursday it has agreed to buy a majority stake in privately held U.S. fintech firm Taulia as the German business software group seeks to expand its presence in supply-chain financing and working capital management. SAP, said it was looking at opportunities in the ‘metaverse’ - virtual online worlds where people can work, play and socialize.
Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
SNOWFLAKE ($SNOW) longNote:
- NYSE:SNOW
- High Tight Flag
- Hot sector
- Chart setting up nicely
- EMAs coming together
- Fundamentals are great
Disclaimer and Info:
- No guarantee for the correctness of information or calculations
- No advice or investment advice
- Fiscal Year ends January 31.
- All numbers in '000 US dollars (1.234 = 1.23 million USD)
Company profile from TradingView:
Snowflake, Inc. provides cloud data warehousing software.
It provides SQL data warehouse, zero management, and broad ecosystem products.
It offers data warehouse modernization, accelerating analytics, enabling developers and monitoring and security analysis solutions to federal government, financial services, healthcare, media and entertainment, retail and CPG , gaming, education and technology industries.
The company was founded by Marcin Zukowski, Thierry Cruanes and Benoit Dageville in 2013 and is headquartered in Bozeman, MT.
Main sources for data:
- Investor Presentation 3Q Fiscal 2022
- Trading View
- Own calculations
Customers (customers >$1M):
FY2021Q3: 3,554 (65)
FY2021Q4: 4,139 (77)
FY2022Q1: 4,532 (104)
FY2022Q2: 4,990 (116)
FY2022Q3: 5,416 (148) --> YOY Growth: 52% all customers // 128 % customers >$1M
Net Revenue Retention (NRR):
Net Revenue Retention (NRR) also known as Net Dollar Retention (NDR) is an important SaaS metric. NRR is one of the most important key KPIs from the software and service industry. Ultimately, it measures how much of the previous year's turnover was lost through layoffs and how much Annual Recurring Revenue ( ARR ) was gained through account expansion of existing SaaS-customers. The net effect of lost sales (revenue churn) and additional sales from received customers (account expansion) is the Net Revenue Retention.
In order to calculate the NRR, you need at least two comparison periods for the company. Typically, one compares the ARR of the previous year with the current value of the Annual Recurring Revenue. If the additional expenses of the existing customers can more than compensate for the loss of sales through terminations, one speaks of net-negative revenue churn or positive net revenue retention, which then takes a value of over 100%.
Calculation of the Net Revenue Retention (NRR) or Net Dollar Retention (NDR): Expressed mathematically, the NRR or NDR is the percentage of sales in a previous period or base period that could be realized in the current period. This includes additional sales from existing customers, cost reductions for customers and terminations. The net revenue retention rate can also assume values below 100%, which means that the customer cohort of the previous year spent less on average in the current year.
The goal of most SaaS-companies is therefore a net dollar retention of over 100, which would mean that the additional sales of existing customers could overcompensate for losses due to terminations (account churn) and budget cuts (revenue churn). If the NRR is above 100, i.e. the customer cohorts are spending more and more money and new customers can be won at the same time, software companies can grow particularly dynamically.
FY2022Q1: 168%
FY2022Q2: 170%
FY2022Q3: 173%
Non-GAAP Product Gross Margin:
FY19: 58%
FY20: 63%
FY21: 69%
FY22: 74% (est.)
FY2021Q3: 70%
FY2021Q4: 70%
FY2022Q1: 72%
FY2022Q2: 74%
FY2022Q3: 75%
Rule of "40":
The "Rule of 40" ( aka . "Rule of Forty") is one of the simplest and most important SaaS and software metrics. This KPI was developed by the US-based software venture capital fund Bessemer Venture Partners.
It tries to relate the growth and profitability of a company. The revenue growth and the free cash flow margin (also (non-GAAP) operating margin or adjusted EBITDA margin) are added as a measure of profitability. If the sum of the two values results in a value greater than 40 , empirical data are used to assume that this is a very healthy company. The rule of 40 is particularly meaningful for software or subscription companies with high gross margins.
The background to the relationship is that a company that is growing rapidly but is still losing money can be just as attractive or even more attractive than a company that is profitable but only grows more slowly. In addition, companies can often actively decide whether they want to give up profitability in order to grow even faster or save marketing costs and instead accept slow growth but deliver more EBIT .
At the same time, a situation in which a company is neither profitable nor grows significantly faster than 20% can quickly become threatening. Often these companies do not achieve sufficient economies of scale and operating leverage to be profitable and sustainable in the long term.
Therefore, the following applies quite casually: Either grow quickly or make a profit! If both of these don't work, the company often find itself in a dead end.
FY2021Q3: 88%
FY2021Q4: 93%
FY2022Q1: 95%
FY2022Q2: 96%
FY2022Q3: 112%
Sales Efficiency (aka Magic Number):
The "Magic Number" is a KPI of the sales efficiency of SaaS and subscription companies. It goes back to the venture capital fund Bessemer Venture Partners, which specializes in SaaS companies in the US.
To calculate the Magic Number, the newly acquired Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) is annualized and related to sales and marketing expenses.
Calculation: Specifically, you subtract the sales of the previous quarter from today's sales and multiply the difference by 4. Because the additional quarterly sales will accrue every year from now on, so it becomes ARR or annually recurring sales. This annualized turnover is now calculated from the marketing expenses of the previous period - because these have caused the increase in sales - and the result is a number that is usually between 0.5 and 2.
FY2021Q3: 1,14
FY2021Q4: 0,92
FY2022Q1: 1,00
FY2022Q2: 1,04
FY2022Q3: 1,36
If the magic number is below 0.5, there is probably no product market fit. No invest in marketing is needed.
If the magic number is between 0.5 and 0.75, you are probably spending the right amount in marketing and sales and the amount should rather be optimized operationally.
If the magic number is above 0.75 or even above 1, you should definitely try to spend even more money on acquisition, i.e. via marketing and sales.
CLOUDFLARE ($NET) longNote:
- NYSE:NET
- Reverse play of the last phase of extreme growth and consolidation
- Software companies have been depreciated comparatively strongly in the last consolidation
- Hot sector
- Chart setting up nicely (support around 127$)
- EMAs coming together
- Fundamentals are great
Disclaimer and Info:
- No guarantee for the correctness of information or calculations
- No advice or investment advice
- All numbers in '000 US dollars (1.234 = 1.23 million USD)
Company profile from Wikipedia:
Cloudflare, Inc. is an American web infrastructure and website security company that provides content delivery network and DDoS mitigation services.
Its services occur between a website's visitor and the Cloudflare customer's hosting provider, acting as a reverse proxy for websites.
Its headquarters are in San Francisco.
Main sources for data:
- Investor Presentation 30. Sep. 2021
- Trading View
- Own calculations
Customers (new customers):
FY2020Q3: 100.968
FY2020Q4: 111.183 (10.215)
FY2021Q1: 119.206 (8.023)
FY2021Q2: 126.735 (7.529)
FY2021Q3: 132.390 (5.655)
FY2021Q3: t.b.d.
Customers with >100k$ (new customers >100k$):
FY2020Q3: 736
FY2020Q4: 828 (92)
FY2021Q1: 945 (117)
FY2021Q2: 1.088 (143)
FY2021Q3: 1.260 (172)
FY2021Q3: t.b.d.
Non-GAAP Gross Margin (= Gross Profit / Revenue):
FY2018: 78%
FY2019: 78%
FY2020: 78%
FY2020Q3: 76,35%
FY2020Q4: 76,92%
FY2021Q1: 76,76%
FY2021Q2: 77,02%
FY2021Q3: 78,23%
FY2021Q4: t.b.d.
DBNER (Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate):
DBNER (aka. Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate) is one of the most important KPIs, especially for SaaS and other software companies.
The DBNER measures how much more sales (revenue) a certain cohort of customers (usually those from last year) has also spent in the current year.
Calculation of the DBNER: As a rule, the DBNER is calculated by dividing the sales of all customers who were still customers on the last day of a period (e.g. December 31, 2021) by the sales of the same customers in the previous period (base period, e.g. the year 2020). Important: The sales of customers who have canceled in the current period (2021) and new customers who were not customers in the base period (2020) are not considered.
If you want to measure the ability to retain and increase sales (revenue retention) including terminations, the NRR (aka. Net Revenue Retention) is a better indicator in this case.
What is a good DBNER? A DBNER of 112%, for example, would mean that a company's existing customers have spent an average of 12% more this year than in the previous year.
Often the DBNER is in the range of 105-130%. Values over 130% indicate a strong growth in spending within customer accounts.
The DBNER is important because the simultaneous acquisition of new customers and a growing willingness to pay among existing customers can ideally lead to exponential growth.
The so-called "Land and Expand" strategy, which tries to continuously increase sales of new customers, is essential for sustainable growth of software companies.
If the DBNER falls below 100%, that means customers spend less and less on the company's services. At best, the decline can be compensated with the acquisition of many new customers.
Ways to increase the DBNER are the sale of additional products, services and modules, the expansion of licenses to include new workstations and instances or the enforcement of volume or consumption-based business models.
FY2019Q1: 118%
FY2019Q2: 122%
FY2019Q3: 121%
FY2019Q4: 119%
FY2020Q1: 117%
FY2020Q2: 115%
FY2020Q3: 116%
FY2020Q4: 119%
FY2021Q1: 123%
FY2021Q2: 124%
FY2021Q3: 124%
FY2021Q4: t.b.d.
Rule of "40":
The "Rule of 40" ( aka . "Rule of Forty") is one of the simplest and most important SaaS and software metrics. This KPI was developed by the US-based software venture capital fund Bessemer Venture Partners.
It tries to relate the growth and profitability of a company. The revenue growth and the free cash flow margin (also (non-GAAP) operating margin or adjusted EBITDA margin) are added as a measure of profitability. If the sum of the two values results in a value greater than 40 , empirical data are used to assume that this is a very healthy company. The rule of 40 is particularly meaningful for software or subscription companies with high gross margins.
The background to the relationship is that a company that is growing rapidly but is still losing money can be just as attractive or even more attractive than a company that is profitable but only grows more slowly. In addition, companies can often actively decide whether they want to give up profitability in order to grow even faster or save marketing costs and instead accept slow growth but deliver more EBIT .
At the same time, a situation in which a company is neither profitable nor grows significantly faster than 20% can quickly become threatening. Often these companies do not achieve sufficient economies of scale and operating leverage to be profitable and sustainable in the long term.
Therefore, the following applies quite casually: Either grow quickly or make a profit! If both of these don't work, the company often find itself in a dead end.
FY2020Q3: 50,41%
FY2020Q4: 45,70%
FY2021Q1: 45,87%
FY2021Q2: 50,21%
FY2021Q3: 52,26%
FY2021Q4: t.b.d.
Sales Efficiency (aka Magic Number):
The "Magic Number" is a KPI of the sales efficiency of SaaS and subscription companies. It goes back to the venture capital fund Bessemer Venture Partners, which specializes in SaaS companies in the US.
To calculate the Magic Number, the newly acquired Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) is annualized and related to sales and marketing expenses.
Calculation: Specifically, you subtract the sales of the previous quarter from today's sales and multiply the difference by 4. Because the additional quarterly sales will accrue every year from now on, so it becomes ARR or annually recurring sales. This annualized turnover is now calculated from the marketing expenses of the previous period - because these have caused the increase in sales - and the result is a number that is usually between 0.5 and 2.
FY2020Q3: 0,84
FY2020Q4: 0,76
FY2021Q1: 0,82
FY2021Q2: 1,05
FY2021Q3: t.b.d.
FY2021Q4: t.b.d.
If the magic number is below 0.5, there is probably no product market fit. No invest in marketing is needed.
If the magic number is between 0.5 and 0.75, you are probably spending the right amount in marketing and sales and the amount should rather be optimized operationally.
If the magic number is above 0.75 or even above 1, you should definitely try to spend even more money on acquisition, i.e. via marketing and sales.
TECH: The Next 10 YearsWeb 3.0 is the emerging paradigm of the Semantic web, where there is no central authority or gatekeeper. Whereas Web 2.0 was propelled by advances in social networking, mobile internet access, and cloud, Web 3.0 will be defined by advances in edge computing, decentralized data networks, blockchain, AR/VR and artificial intelligence. Web 3.0 is only just coming into picture. It will serve as an extension of many elements of Web 2.0, but will also create entirely new experiences and blue ocean opportunities.
For example, developers could combine parts of applications together or entire applications to customize how they experience and benefit from products and services.
Through the use of advanced AI, Web 3.0 search engines will offer personalized results based on individual preferences and needs. For example, if an IPA drinker and a Lager fan type ‘breweries near me’ in the search bar, they will receive different results for nearby breweries based on the type of beer brewed. Of course, this also means algorithms will know more about users.
More than 50 percent of data centers in the world are currently owned by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft. In Web 3.0, decentralized cloud networks and autonomous storage units will gain traction. Individuals will host and secure applications or ‘shards’, earning income that would otherwise go to large incumbents.
In Web 3.0, identity management will devolve back to individuals. People will control their digital assets and data, as well as access to them. Centralized and federated identity providers from Web 2.0 will fade into obscurity.
The ‘Metaverse’ will emerge, enabling people to participate and engage with a variety of 3D environments, including games, marketplaces, work spaces, socializing etc. The Metaverse will combine elements of AR/VR, blockchain/digital assets, semantic web and AI.
Whereas Webs 1.0 and 2.0 were cultivated, mass adopted, and financially exploited principally in a few technology hotspots -- US, Western Europe, and APAC, Web 3.0 will be global. We are entering a ‘New Digital World’ of borderless and frictionless transactions that will touch many aspects of life -- work, commerce, socializing, entertainment, etc. More and more people will have the opportunity to participate in this new world and benefit; geography and market access will no longer be major obstacles to success. The future is bright!
Software at 200sma + HorizontalIGV, a Software based ETF, is currently at the 200sma which has shown support before. It is also at horizontal support from February highs.
Trade setup is drawn in chart. The risk-reward-ratio is above 4.
Top 10 holdings
MSFT (10%)
CRM (9%)
ADBE (9%)
INTU (7%)
ORCL (6%)
NOW (5%)
ADSK (2%)
PANW (2%)
SNPS (2%)
WDAY (2%)
Good luck.
AVCT American Virtual Cloud Price Target !!!AVCtechnologies existing enterprise customers including IBM, AT&T, and Etisalat!
AVCtechnologies delivers a full suite of cloud-based Unified Communications as a Service (UCaaS) capabilities to its cloud customers through its carrier-grade Kandy Business Solutions including Cloud PBX, Smart Office UC Clients, Collaboration, Contact Center, and SIP Trunks.
Loop Capital Initiated Coverage on American Virtual Cloud Technologies, Inc. (AVCT) with a Buy rating and a price target of $17.00 !!!
52 Week Range 0.8400 - 9.6200
The price is now $1.46
Market Cap 99.221Mil
Don't Give Up On BTTUSDUsing again the Cloud indicator,
extreme support can be seen building in the orange zone, with many touches at the bottom of this zone
this was a support even before the massive breakout, expect another breakout if it continues to hodl
$MIME: Email Security While Trust In Big Tech Wanes?As distrust in big tech continues with FB making new lows and cyber security stocks continue to reach out for new highs, the tech hangover from COVID looms large. Mimecast I believe will ultimately find themselves on the right side of technology trends in the future while the rest of the world figures out how invasive they want their online communications to be and how comfortable they are with companies hanging onto their data.
$MU sniper edition #4*This is not financial advice, so trade at your own risks*
*My team digs deep and finds stocks that are expected to perform well based off multiple confluences*
*Experienced traders understand the uphill battle in timing the market, so instead my team focuses mainly on risk management*
Recap: My team entered $MU at $72.92 per share. Our first take profit is $92.
My team averaged up on our position today at $82.5 per share bringing our share average up to $77.71.
OUR FIRST ENTRY: $72.92
OUR 2ND ENTRY: $82.50
FIRST TAKE PROFIT: $92
2ND TAKE PROFIT: $103
If you want to see more, please like and follow us @SimplyShowMeTheMoney
MDB MongoDB revenue increased 50% YoYMongoDB's fiscal third-quarter revenue increased 50% year over year.
Revenue growth rate increasing from 39% growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2022 to 44% in fiscal Q2 and now 50% in fiscal Q3.
MongoDB's 50% revenue growth put total revenue for fiscal Q3 at $227 million.
This was far beyond analysts' average forecast for revenue of $205 million during the period. (fool.com)
With this growth rate and cloud-based database needed for the upcoming metaverses, i think MDB MongoDB can reach all time high by the end of the year.
VMW showing some super bullish signsVMW recently split off from DELL and went out on it's own, which is great news as anything AI and cloud right now is super bullish and besides it's the only one i feel that can actually compete with AMZN Cloud AWS, tbh i'm planning on doing a break down video for this play maybe try to get it out before it reports earnings so i can help show people it has some great fundamentals and coming from one of the TECH giants DELL shows nothing but upside potential in my book as you can see it is on this down trend and has had some false breaks through but being that alot of tech plays are starting to pick up steam it will be one that i will be watching for to get a nice break out to the top side.
Long $OKTA - Ready for next leg upSince IPO Okta has maintained it's growth and it has done that in phases. Looking at weekly chart it looks promising and consistent in 4 year long uptrend.
In 2021 it has mostly consolidated and absorbed last years growth and gearing up for next phase of growth.
Okta has earnings on Dec 1, be careful about position sizing. Try to avoid earnings volatility.
FRSHThis is a very pre-mature chart here I'm doing for you @ALYWLAM
I can expect Frshworks to stay bullish in long run. Although we may be witnessing the start of a shakeout on the stock since it's fairly new into the market.
We've seen an instance like AFRM where it dropped in half from open price all the way down to the 40's before forming a cup and handle and exploding to the upside, which I hope happens with FRSH.
Continue to buy up the stock at any given lvl in the 20's or even low 30's iMO.
I'm bullish on the long term existance of this stock.
ESports - Value Investing - DraftKings Competitor - Metaverse Gaming stocks are great. Gaming #stonks like $DKNG not so much. Valuation matters most in *rising rates environment. #valueinvesting wins next decade.
#cannabisreform is #thefuture
$KERN #thegem
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