$ETH / USD -- Mini-Cloud-Bank w/ V Shape RecoveryHello Traders,
Ethereum looks to have formed what I call a mini-cloud-bank patter.
Why, Mini? Because generally speaking Cloud Bank patterns take anywhere from months to years to form, which are followed by a steep 40-60% drop-off with a "V" shape recovery. Clouds usually form during or right before a Bear Market, then take a massive plunge to start a recovery.
Now, my thoughts are, we have mostly seen sideways chop over the last month or so, with some peaks and valleys, before finally dropping 32% from the recent peak. Not speaking too soon, it looks as if the market has found a bottom and has formed a sharp "V" shape recovery, pending no further massive drops.
These types of patterns and market behavior can be ideal for a strong bull run over the next upcoming months for steady and consistent growth to the upside.
Take this with a grain of salt as this is not a true Cloud Bank Pattern but has all of the characteristics of being considered a "Mini" Cloud.
Good luck!
Cloud
Drawn trendline + LR on QuisCharts are an amazing tool. Been an amazing 1.5 years having control of my money to learn about technical analysis. I have been meaning to take a look at quis technically on this uptrend, Linear Regression I find is a great tool to price gain further context on longer time frames.
I started this chart by inputting my own support and resistance trend lines. It follows that as you map out a line acting as resistance and one as support, you are going to find alot of the stocks price action in between. This price action acts as data to be inputted into a Linear Regression model. Utilizing 3 regression lines set from Standard Deviations -3 to +3, we capture 99.7% of data-price, for Quis.
Quis over the past week has again started tightening up. Trading well below its daily average today into last weeks session. I have to admit I was off on the last tighten up around earnings. stock slipped up and went the other way for a week. these weeks candles and volume will be very telling to me on Quis being ready to go.
Catalysts on the near term horizon include Visa end point certification for LedgerPay. LedgerPay is the first payment processing solution that is built on cloud technology, Microsofts Azure Cloud to be specific. You may have seen news out that Amazon is looking to build its own payment platform for retail business. Its to be able to take in all the data on AWS network and make AWS more valuable. Microsoft in a battle forever now on cloud with Amazon got here first by working with Quisitive, a premier partner of microsoft. Microsoft expects to punch back here with Quis as its boxer, this is due to the product offering and funcationality of Ledgerpay and its data intelligence arm and those capabilities.
Further to certification, I think a contract being landed (guidance given on last earnings call Q&A that customers for Ledgerpay would likely be signing contracts before or shortly after LP is fully commercialized with Visa end point cert. It is on news of these contracts I feel the stock can push up to an area in the +2-+3 SD Channel. CEO Mike Reinhart represented Quis on an gateway investor webinar last week and guided that an uplist in Canada to the TSX was foundationally in place, and that US uplist was near as well. $QUISF currently trade on the pinks OTC. Quis also just filed an updated and amended SBP, as i note in my DD pieces, dilution is part of the game here and a risk to upside movement. Given the last two raises made by quis came after moves up, I think it follows that this will will too, but that may not align with acquisition opportunity forcing it to come earlier.
In any case please always do your DD, feel free to check out my substack lebellechart for my own DD, and follow your own trading & investing rules.
Cheers,
Luke
Snowflake, Inc. $SNOW reaches pattern target, partial exitSnowflake is a cloud computing-based data warehousing company based in Montana, named after the founders' love for winter sports. I like winter sports, and the ticker SNOW is aesthetically appealing in my portfolio.
The trade setup was straightforward. The company IPO'd in 2020 at $220, and after one quarter that saw investors take price up above $400 per share, all post-IPO gains were given back by mid-2021, and price got down to as low as $180.
Between March - July 2021, $SNOW formed an inverted Head and Shoulders bottom, reflected by the blue curved drawings - a left shoulder, a "head", and a right shoulder. Once price broke above the pattern boundary, I reached a measured target of $320 by applying the width of the pattern (from $180 to $250, or $70) to the breakout level of $250.
$70 + $250 = $320
This measurement criteria is based on the works of John Magee and Robert D. Edwards in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (5th edition, 1948).
My stop-loss, the "Last Day Rule", and my limit order placement is based on teachings from my friend and active trading legend Peter L. Brandt (Diary of A Professional Commodity Trader, @PeterLBrandt).
I've now covered 3/4 of this position for a gain of 28% (70/250).
My maximum risk, assuming my stop loss order filled peacefully at its activation price was only 4% (10/250).
The risk to reward setup at the time of entry was then (4%) to 28%, or 1 to 7.
Snowflake is probably in line for further price gains, but I have no reason to believe I have an edge at these levels.
FIL OutlookI missed a huge run a few months ago and have learned from my mistakes. Long term down pressure seemingly snapped, expecting some more selling pressure before the bullish buying takes over breaking into a large cup & handle that should bring us back to ATH in fall/winter 2021. COINBASE:FILUSD
ICHIMOKU-DMI-RSI-setupWhen DMI is above 20
and top of Histogram sticks on DMI = Green --- go Long
and top of Histogram sticks on DMI = RED --- Short
NOTE: If candles are far away from cloud, try to wait for a better entry, as candles move toward the cloud and thru moving averages for support/resistance entries.
If DMI is below 20 , no entry
Above the cloud is long, Below the cloud is Short
As candles move thru the cloud, long or short, enter as it exits the cloud, then use the cloud edge as stop loss.
Use the RSI as it nears top or bottom for possible long/short exits.
BUY and SELL triangles to help with possible entry / exit points.
120 day MA added for reference point to
I mostly use this on 1 min, 3 min and 5 min for daytrading futures, stocks. Can be used on anything. Higher time frames are more for swing trading.
Key Takeaways from the Cloud 100For the past six years Bessemer Venture Partners, along with Forbes and Salesforce Ventures, have released the Cloud 100 List, the definitive ranking of the top 100 private cloud companies. This provides participants deep insights into the growth and innovation in the private side of the cloud computing market.
Below we detail some of the key takeaways from this year’s event, but we highly recommend watching or reading through the entire event on Bessemer’s site here:
2021 Cloud 100 - A List of Unicorns
In 2021 every company on the Cloud 100 list has at least a $1bn valuation, companies meeting this threshold are referred to affectionately as “unicorns”. For reference, 87% of last year’s list consisted of unicorns. This is evidence that the appetite for strong cloud computing businesses continues to grow.
The cumulative value of Cloud 100 is $518bn, increasing 94% year-over-year from $267bn. For reference, that aggregate valuation is greater than the individual gross domestic product of 87% of countries on the planet! The average company on the list is valued at $5.2bn, which is more than double the 2020 average of $2.5bn.
Since the first Cloud 100 list in 2016 the value of the list has increased 5x over. The average Cloud 100 valuation has grown by $4.1 billion at a +38% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) since 2016, from $1.1 billion in 2016 to $5.2 billion today.
The Cloud Industry’s Accelerating Growth
The average revenue growth rate on the list was 90% year-over-year, which compares to 80% in 2020. The top quartile of companies on the list grew 110% year-over-year, which is faster than ever before according to Bessemer.
The Public Cloud Market and IPOs since the 2020 Cloud 100
19 of last year’s Cloud 100 list are now, or in the process of becoming, publicly traded companies.
Evaluating Bessemer’s 2020 Predictions
At last year’s event Bessemer predicted that 1) public cloud markets would surpass $2tn in cumulative market capitalization 2) the entire Cloud 100 would consist of companies with at least a $1bn valuation
Prediction 1: As of July 2021, the public cloud market reached $2.3tn, not only achieving but well surpassing Bessemer’s prediction.
Prediction 2: As mentioned above, the entire Cloud 100 list consists of unicorns with at least $1bn in valuation
Cloud Globalization
International representation on the list continue to expand to nearly 30%. Ireland, Germany, Israel, and Australia are a few of the regions on this year’s list. Bessemer also continues to see cloud leaders rising out of the Asia Pacific, India, and other international markets.
In Bessemer’s view, the cloud industry will have a sizeable impact on global GDP over the coming years.
Cloud Job Growth
According to Bessemer, Cloud 100 companies increased their number of employees by an average of 26% since January 2021, equating to a total of more than 17,000 new hires. The Fintech industry created the greatest number of new jobs year-to-date.
Top Cloud 100 Sub Sectors
Fintech companies on the list experienced the strongest growth, increasing 461% in value since the 2019 list. This subsector totals a cumulative $146bn valuation, which is more than a quarter of the list’s total value.
According to Bessemer, cloud companies within the Fintech subsectors are helping modernize the infrastructure that the financial services industry relies on. Many of today’s cloud companies embed financial services and payments within their software solutions. For example, Cloud 100 constituent Toast offers an all-in-one point-of-sale and restaurant management platform for restaurants. In Bessemer’s view, cloud companies like Toast are often able to process payments and payroll more efficiently than many traditional banks.
Data and Infrastructure businesses also had more representation, increasing 70% in value from the 2019 list. Today this subsector makes up $63bn of the list’s value.
There is certainly some valuation concentration at the top of the list. The top 10 companies on the list amounts to approximately $200bn, or 38% of the list’s cumulative value
New Market Leaders – MT SAAS vs. FAANG
Last year Bessemer introduced a competitor for the well-known FAANG basket (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google) with the cloud giants encompassed by their MT SAAS basket (Microsoft, Twilio, Salesforce, Amazon, Adobe, Shopify).
According to Bessemer, MT SAAS performance represents the power of the cloud and how it will continue to drive technology and innovation in the future. In 2020, MT SAAS outperformed FAANG by over 100%.
Our Final Thoughts
Bessemer Venture Partners has one of the largest cloud portfolios in venture capital and we believe the unique insights they provide in the Cloud 100 and other published research is an excellent resource to gauge the status of the broader cloud economy.
We exit the Cloud 100 event with reinforced confidence in the potential growth trajectory of the cloud industry based on three key takeaways: 1) cloud technology is a necessity for businesses to survive and compete in today’s economy 2) the cloud industry is a meaningful contributor to global GDP and employment growth 3) revenue growth rates in the private cloud market continue to accelerate and provide evidence that we remain firmly in a historic period for cloud technology adoption.
All figures referenced are sourced from Bessemer Venture Partners as of 10 August 2021
Quisitive Technology Solutions TA and thoughts $QUIS.VQuisitive $QUIS.V / $QUISF will report Q2 earnings on Aug 30th after the bell. This will be a company changing quarterly report IMO. For a detailed breakdown on what to expect for earnings you can follow my substack, I will be publishing an updated Q2 projection this weekend.
Price has failed to break lower on the last two selloffs. the 200 dma held and the stock bounced up Friday on light volume. Take in that volume contraction over August. Besides a few large buys that show up its been quiet on the Quis front. I believe Quis will run into earnings now this week. Its not going to take a whole lot to get us up to that overhead resistance I have lined out (1.68-1.70 range). This move up implies just over a 20% gain in 6 trading days.
Where the fun/risk comes into play is the market reaction to the numbers Quis puts up. IMO there is a chance Quis can push upwards of $24 million in revenue, which would be near 100% yoy growth. Again, my stack will breakdown this down in more detail. Furthermore what will drive sentiment is comments from CEO Mike Reinhart on LedgerPay commercialization being on schedule (no reason to believe it wont be) + any pilot projects that have been undertaken during Q3. Full Commercialization for LedgerPay is due after Visa Certification has been awarded, expected at end of Sept.
All in all, I believe there is a trade to be had here, as well as a good buy range at the start of the week for a long position. I also have quis's chart on stockcharts set up on weekly with rsi, macd and OBV - the stock is technically oversold and has a reasonably long runway if it moves up with purpose. I believe it will. Earnings could be the set up for a stronger push up near end of Sept when LP reaches full commercialization. Again, Mike Reinhart's comments will be key here to giving the market guidance.
I have a large position relative to my book in $QUIS.V, As always please do your own DD and follow your own trading rules.
Cheers,
Luke
MU saw some people on Bezinga Stream floundering on this..This shows MACD Bullish Divergence and thats to $92. My path shows to $120-128. Chart looks really. Good. I used the Cloud this time to find the same move in the past. As i think its more reliable when you can find price action dip into the cloud the same way and with the same kind of candles that have been painted. I customized this Cloud way out of wack from the standard I dont know what possessed me to use the settings I have but It has been very reliable.
by iCantw84it
07.30.2021
FASTLY Ready For Lift-Off [LONG]The chart here of FSLY might be one of my favorite looking charts of recent memory.. however, if you are a close follower of the company, you may be a little fearful at the moment as this stock has gotten hammered for 10 months now. Not to mention the miss they had on earnings recently PLUS a bug in the company's infrastructure that apparently caused the web traffic of a major customer to vanish for almost an hour.
This has resulted in shareholders dumping the stock and leaving it for savvy traders to now scoop it up for pennies on the dollar as the stock has fallen 75% in value back down to fair value areas according to what we have outlined here in what appears to be the completion of a classic 5 Count Elliot Wave correction.
And now this young stock has found itself back above the $41 price level.. a very important level as there is nothing to catch the price below this level as far as the eye can see according to the common Fibonacci retracement of this asset's all time high to its all time low.
This makes the levels shown on this chart very credible and one who owns this asset would be wise to not fall asleep on what is happening to the stock's current price.
Furthermore, we have possible classic bullish divergence on the weekly.. although it is much more discernable on the daily.
Either way, FSLY looks all systems go in the fact that it is sitting snug above our .236 fib level, a technically great area for price to run to higher prices if support is maintained here.
It is currently a 6% drop to reach our desired entry at $41. So one might find a better, yet slightly riskier entry just above our heads at the next fib level which would be $45.40. Much higher above that we have more buy zones but the spot we are at now will be where the most gains are made.
Lastly on Fastly, anything below $40 is bearish and a daily/weekly candle close below this level would be enough to refrain from looking for any further longs in the immediate future.
If you own this stock and you are fed up with it, you may want to stick it out just a little longer as FSLY could be looking at a DOUBLE in price in the not so distant future.
AMZN the no-brainer stock.In today’s post, I will be covering Amazon($AMZN). I am sure you all have heard of the company due to do its reign in e-commerce. However, that is just a drop in the bin. I believe that cloud computing, AWS, is the main driver of its net income. I will not get into specifics but they are powering big-name players like; Netflix, Twitch, Facebook, LinkedIn, Twitter, etc. Along with their e-commerce and cloud computing, they offer one of the best streaming services that will soon be broadcasting global events such as NFL, Premier League, and more. Additionally, they own a large market share in gaming and audiobooks through Twitch and Audible. Did I forget to mention they own Whole Foods, an outlet for retail distribution?
They are revolutionizing everything they do while providing low prices to consumers, one of the main reasons I think they will not be broken up. However, today’s headline, “Biden Weighs New Executive Order Restraining Big Business” (WSJ), brings some skepticism. Regulation in various facets is their biggest headwind. Nonetheless, even if they are broken up, you would still want to own the previously mentioned businesses in isolation.
As seen in the image, the company has been trading in a range from 2900-3500 (Red/Blue horizontals) for about a year now, while the rest of Mega-Cap Tech (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook) has steadily made all near all-time highs. I think it is on the verge of a technical breakout (breaking out of the previous trading range) as they continue firing on all cylinders and growing the business vertically and horizontally.
In the world of finance, I often do not like to make decisions in isolation. That being said the conjugation of all previous factors provides a decent investment thesis. It is currently around $1. 74T. I think it will, sooner than later, cross the $2 trillion market cap, (+12%) that competitors Microsoft and Apple smashed. Could you imagine a world without Amazon? It wouldn’t be better in my opinion and I do not see that changing in the near future. In the long run, the companies growth will slow and the company will transition away from reinvestment to shareholder distribution (dividend).
Con: Regulation + Tech Drawdown + Treasury Rate Increases
Pro: Businesses + Technical + Smart Money
internet ComputerBig Project here :
What is the Internet Computer (ICP)?
The Internet Computer is the world’s first blockchain that runs at web speed with unbounded capacity. It also represents the third major blockchain innovation, alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum — a blockchain computer that scales smart contract computation and data, runs them at web speed, processes and stores data efficiently, and provides powerful software frameworks to developers. By making this possible, the Internet Computer enables the complete reimagination of software — providing a revolutionary new way to build tokenized internet services, pan-industry platforms, decentralized financial systems, and even traditional enterprise systems and websites. The project was founded in October 2016 by Dominic Williams, and attracted notable interest from the crypto community. DFINITY raised a total of $121 million from contributors such as Andreessen Horowitz, Polychain Capital, SV Angel, Aspect Ventures, Electric Capital, ZeroEx, Scalar Capital, and Multicoin Capital, and several notable early Ethereum supporters.
To make it simple this project is a Decentralised concurent of Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud but in decentralised Version.
Market cap is 6.5 Billions so it's already a big project, can buy it on Binance or Coinbase.
This coin dropped a lot as it seems early investors took some profits.
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Trading Parts :
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Buy Zone 52$ ish ( a bit ) ( wait for break EMA50)
Rebuy Zone 27$ ( Full Buy )
TP1 : 79.5$
TP2 : 129.5$
TP3 : 198$
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Happy Tr4Ding !
Options Prices Prediction - GMEHello everyone, to anyone who is not already familiar with the Chobotaru Indicator V1, it takes the implied volatility currently priced in GME options and gives a probability location cloud.
As you can see, for the next 44 days, this is what the market thinks that this stock should do (move within the probability cloud).
Options Sellers give a 20% probability that the price will touch $320 before JUN 18.
You can use the indicator yourself and see if they update their prediction...
MEANING ---> if you see the stock starts to move and they raise prices (and hence implied volatility increase), the market believes that price could go further.
IBM breaking 8 year downtrendIBM is beginning to break out on the weekly chart from a trend line that was acting as strong resistance for over 8 years.
Recently the company has unveiled the world's first 2nm chip and announced previously that it will begin focusing on Cloud and AI which will serve the company well as those are two large secular growth stories. Go Long IBM. Trades at 9.79 EV/EBITDA ratio, well run company financially with a long growth path ahead of it.
I expect IBM and INTC to be some of the main beneficiaries of the bill that just passed in the senate today that okayed $54 billion dollars for the Semiconductor Industry to focus production on American soil and improve research efforts. INTC and IBM have long been the American blue-chip players in the space and are currently collaborating in advanced semiconductor research. This is a timely partnership as INTC is building two new fabs in Arizona and IBM just released its 2nm chip but does not manufacture its own chips (ahem ahem INTC).
Long-term Price Target: $250
Daily Chart w/ Golden Cross:
Quisitive Technologies, $QUIS.V Bottom In? Utilizing Linear Regression at Standard Deviations at 3,2,1,-1,-2,-3 You should see these data lines captures the trading range of Quis. The Time of the plot was adjusted to 175 to best capture what I think is the relevant data lines capturing the tops and *perhaps* now the bottom.
I have personally added here to a long position. Last week and today. The Link below is to my notes on the most recent earnings call. It can provide more colour as to how we got to where we are today. There is further work on my substack to add even more of a background.
Please do your own DD and follow your trading rules before entering.
All the best,
Luke
Bearish tilt on this triangle...but wait there's more$BTC has to break one way or the other with this side chop getting way too tight. The tilt is bearish since the trend for many days has been downward. However!, a candle just opened in the cloud and I'll take anything as a bull sign. Targets are sized to ~match the target price and fit with 1.68 fib levels.
Will Bitcoin Continue To Drop?Looking at the 6D chart with Ichimoku cloud, it definitely seems possible that bitcoin may continue to drop. The way the current candle is hanging from the Kijun does not look very good. There are more support levels that could be tested such as 26k, 18k, 15k.
We should play close attention to the bitcoin price action today along with watching the 4D and 5D charts which have a candle that completes today.