comparison between PSTG (pure storage) and NIO (nio).on the right we have nio, trying today to break over the MA 50 dynamic resistance, and on the left we have pure storage, trying to bounce off the MA 200.
as you can see, both of them bounced off the MA 200, but while nio did jump high today, pure storage didn't yet.
because of that, I believe we will see a jump within 2 weeks in pure storage too, not a big %, but yet not a trash can.
anyway, rejecting the MA 200 4 times is an amazing thing, and if the price can start to climb again, we may see it reaching a new high in both nio and pstg.
lastly, I would suggest you to check nio and compare it to pstg whenever it is possible, as long as the correlation between the 2 remains.
logarithmic chart
basic chart
Cloud
How to use Chobotaru IndicatorOur indicator can now be used by everyone.
There are a lot of indicators trying to predict what will be the range of the stock in the future.
Some of the indicators, that are well known, are using STD of volatility like Bolinger Bands or using an advanced simulation like Monte-Carlo, and others that are using different methods.
Our approach to this subject is different. There is an official volatility predictor called Implied Volatility. (I explained it in a different post)
This number can be seen in the options chain in your broker platform. You don’t need to trade options to use this indicator.
This indicator shows you a probability cloud, giving you the probability of the stock moving to a certain price.
This can help in several ways like determine if your target price is possible, where to put stop-loss, you can also use other technical analyses, like support and resistance to choose which area is best for your trade. The sky is the limit.
We tested it on 30(+/-10) days of small market cap and higher. In our testing, the price finished inside the range more than 80% of the time (the result are higher but I’m trying to stay conservative).
The user can choose a different option’s time period than 30 days, but the longer the period the higher the chance for a rare event that is not currently priced in.
The indicator is based on the partial differential equations from the mathematical model of options, the Black-Scholes model.
In simple words, the prices of options give you some indication of how the market thinks the stock should perform. If you take the implied volatility and insert it into the indicator, you can see the probability range, transforming this data into a visual representation.
What inputs do you need to enter?
Instrument price –
The current price of the stock or futures contract.
In this example, the close price of the SPY on March 30, 2021, is 394.73
The interest rate –
Searching in google: “U.S. Department of the treasury daily yield curve rates”, Use the 3-month value (of the day of the entry or day before).
On 03/30/2021 the 3-month value was 0.02%
Days to expire (minus trading holidays) –
At the end of 03/30/2021, I searched for the option that is the closest to 30 days on the SPY. The option that ending on April 30, has 31 days, in this period we have a holiday “Good Friday”, so I subtract the original number of days from the holiday, 31-1 = 30
Implied Volatility –
This number in your trading platform will usually be shown in a percentage, you need to enter a positive decimal number.
In this example, the implied volatility of the option was 15.2%, the input is 0.152
The date – The last thing is the date of the entry, in this case, Day – 30, Month – 3, Year – 2021.
This indicator can be used on daily bars and everything smaller than that. We recommend using it on daily bars.
Try it for yourself on your charts and share your result, if you have any questions, tell us in the comments.
Filecoin has been unphased during the correctionFilecoin seems to be looking very strong. In the past I had mentioned FIL in one of my idea and the target got hit, but also left the possibility for more upside open. And I do believe more upside is coming. Especially if there is a reduction in the inflation rate.
ADBE over 475.00Cloud/SaaS were some of the growth leaders pre and post-COVID but have significantly cooled off since the peak in August/September and did not rally to the degree other names did in November - February. ADBE is forming a flag on the weekly viewing shown here on the daily, entry provided at 475.00 over VPOC, price action resistance which also serves as a "round number" psych level.
Will NET Bring Cloud Back To Life?NET NYSE:NET is a riskier play at this moment due to the overall weakness in tech stock and market conditions. But, in comparison to other companies in this sector NET is holding up fairly well and showing some relative strength. NET tried to get over $76 today and failed to hold above. Testing a strong support zone for the third time over the past two months and looks like we may be starting to bounce. Volume has been accumulating with 4 out of the last 6 days trading above NET's daily volume average. POC on the daily chart is right at $82.51 lvl. If SPY/QQQ can start to breakout this week $$ should flow back into the tech stocks and the cloud sector which has taken a solid beating can see some bullish movement. Ideally, we gap up to $78 and form an island reversal. But, a play over $76 with the right market conditions looks primed for a good swing.
EMA's serving as a resistance above in the 78-79 range, tough lvls to get through in the Low Volume Node (LVN)
4/16 $80 calls will be my swing of choice (4.35/4.65). IV is very low 21% IV percentile on NET and if the market starts to move back up these can pay out well!
*I entered a small NET position this week and will add more on break of $76 with volume.
LINK Pitchfork Mid-Line target of $100 by MarchLINK is still massively undervalued and the Pitchfork shows this out. The mid-line alone still has LINK in the $100 range by March.
If you don't think this is possible in LINK then I suggest you take a look at UNI's chart when it moved from $3 to $20 in the span of a couple weeks. Considering the spate of recent news out in LINK from:
1) NASDAQ ETF - www.theblockcrypto.com
2) China's BSN network integrating LINK on Mainnet - medium.com
3) Kraken launching a full LINK node for DeFi price feeds - www.theblockcrypto.com
4) Oracle Corp Executive confirming to me on twitter that they are still collaborating with LINK team on the project "Every Startup in the Blockchain with ChainLink and Oracle Cloud"
twitter.com
The TA and the Fundamentals are strongly aligning for a massive move in LINK coming in the next 2-4 weeks. Stay tuned!
FSLY over 115.21This name moves big every once in a while and price action may be hinting one is on its way this week. While it 'filled the gap' with the wick a few days prior, it could not close and hold over. Subsequent candles show a good degree of buying and selling pressure which can indicate a larger move coming.
SNOW READY FOR A BLIZZARD !1! Snow on the daily is getting squeezed by a bullish pennant . MACD is looking ready to flip along with squeeze momentum finally finishing its sell off. With declining sell volume as well and SNOW consistently holding up its long term support line we could see SNOW gap up to its first price target of $330. Along with the trend analysis as seen we also have to take into account NASDAQ:MSFT earnings report released today stating that they had a 17% revenue increase because of cloud business. The future is SaaS and SNOW is looking ready to snow some cash !