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BTC State of Everything - HTF Technicals and EconometricsBTC's recent run and sudden drop has most traders uncertain of what might come. In this analysis I'll be evaluating 12 different indicators to see if we can get a feel for BTC's direction over the coming days/weeks. Note - I'll provide links at the bottom of this analysis to articles that describe some of the more exotic indicators. PAGE 1 - Headline Photo (Shown Above): Top left - Golden Ratio Multiplier (info in "resources" section below): The golden ratio multiplier has been one of the strongest indicators for spotting opportune buying/selling opportunities as well as key dynamic support and resistances. During the great 'rona selloff of 2020, we spiked down to the 2x 350SMA multiplier, the exact support that reversed the 2018/2019 selloff and launched us into the bullish paradigm that began early 2019 (and later ruined by the pandemic). We're currently resting on the 350 SMA, the SMA that is at the core of this indicator's functionality. Read alone, this would be a viable but very risky knife-catching move for any longs. I'm not particularly interested in a long here (more on that later). Top right - Guppy: I use the guppy as an additional feel for bias. Green - I am bullish, gray - neutral, red - bearish. We recently had a flip to gray from green, which taken by itself implies neutrality at this time. Note: if interested in exploring this script further, check my scripts. Bottom left - Log channel: BTC has spent almost its entire life between the white log channels. Taking this indicator alone, dipping below that white support and having it as resistance is either bearish, or represents a paradigm shift requiring a more nuanced channel. I don't take bets on paradigm shifts this young, so currently reading this as bearish. Bottom right - Ichimoku Cloud (1d) + significant EMAs + RSI: Earlier this week and late last week we had 7 daily candles where attempts to break outside of the cloud were met with failure. Yesterday's daily candle also solidified a strong bearish cross. Digesting all of it, we have a bearish cross (bearish) and price action within the cloud (neutral/sideways). On top of that, we're struggling to keep above the daily 99 EMA, which is not a great sign for bulls. Summing this up, the daily cloud is fairly bearish. More relevant on higher timeframes is the weekly cloud , whose Tenkan caught this dip and we are resting there now. Regarding RSI, we had a strong divergence that played out with a mild relief rally this past week. I consider that divergence played out and equalized, meaning RSI is neutral at this time. ____________________________________________________________________________ PAGE 2: ____________________________________________________________________________ Top left - S&P500 Correlation: Unfortunately, this indicator says more than most at this time. Ever since the pandemic kicked off economic uncertainty, BTC's correlation with the S&P500 has felt unshakeable. As long as SPX looks bearish, which it does, there's no reason to expect BTC to diverge. Bearish. Top right - Futures premiums: The last few bull runs have been futures-driven rallies where both the quarterly (blue) and weekly (yellow) contracts have been trading at a premium over spot. With the latest run, we've seen some consistent chop where weekly futures have been yo-yoing above and below spot prices, whereas quarterlies are trading consistently above. We're seeing the same here in more recent days. Good news for long term is that quarterly futures are above, however weekly contracts remain below. To me this represents firm indecision, which seems appropriate. technically speaking this reads as bullish for long term (think weeks to months), and bearish for near term (days to weeks). Net, slightly bearish. Bottom left - Puell Mulitple (info in "resources" section): In short, this metric looks at the supply side of Bitcoin's economy - Bitcoin miners and their revenue. Specifically, BTC issuance to miners. When issuance is low, investors during that period historically have outsized returns. At this time issuance is in a slightly low phase, but not outstandingly abnormal. There is a lot of room to run upwards, but still some room downwards as well. Taken for itself, the Puell multiple of 0.6 indicates that hodlers (multi-year), should be quite fine to accumulate here while staying weary that better buying opportunities may present itself. For scale, 0.5 Puell and below is a near instant-buy for me. Net, neutral mid-term. Bottom right - Simple Haikin Ashi: Not much to say with the Heikins. We had a very strong break of the doji printed 2 days ago. If today's candle closes with a similar or longer body, it will set the tone for further bearish continuation for proceeding days. ____________________________________________________________________________ PAGE 3: ____________________________________________________________________________ Note: With exception to Stock to Flow, this page mostly consists of long term indicators used to spot extremes where buying/selling is most profitable. Top left - 2y MA Multiplier: We are about 20% of the distance above the 2y MA support. The current price did just proceed a dip below, which historically has sprung a long term (multi-year) bull run. Long term, bullish. Near term, neutral/irrelevant. Top right - Stock to Flow: This crowd favorite needs no introduction, but info is in the "resources" section if needed. We're currently in the early stage of the orange phase of stock to flow, which has historically been a bullish period with lots of chop along a slow grind up. Yep, that feels about right doesn't it? The read here is that anything can happen on daily or even weekly timeframes. However in years to come we'll have a laugh on our yachts about the olden days quibbling $9k vs $11k like it actually mattered. Long term, bullish. Near/mid term neutral. Bottom left - Pi Cycle (info in "resources" section): Fantastic for sniping tops, we can also glean some info about buy timing. Historically speaking, the Pi Cycle is bullish above the 111 DMA (pink), euphoric above the 2x350 DMA (green), and primed to sell when the 111 DMA crosses above the 2x350 DMA. Additionally, when bullish, buying dips to the 111 DMA support has proved profitable. We are there now - tentatively bullish. Bottom right - BTC Network Momentum (info in "resources" section): Our momentum is quite low. In fact, it hasn't been this low since 2015. That said, BTCNM does have clear supports, and we are teetering on one of the supports now. Neutral for now, but a break of that support would be a clear bearish sign. ____________________________________________________________________________ SUMMARY: ____________________________________________________________________________ Golden ratio multiplier: neutral (with a potential very risky entry for bulls). Guppy: neutral. Log channel: somewhat bearish. Daily cloud: somewhat bearish. Weekly cloud: bullish, testing Tenkan support. S&P500 Correlation: bearish. Futures premiums: long term bullish, mid term bearish. Puell multiple: long term bullish, mid term neutral. Heikin Ashi: somewhat bearish (a long bodied close would confirm and make bearish). 2y MA Multiplier: long term bullish, short/mid term neutral. Stock to flow: long term bullish, short/mid term neutral. Pi Cycle: bullish, testing support. BTC network momentum: neutral, testing support. ____________________________________________________________________________ CONCLUSION: ____________________________________________________________________________ In the near to midterm future, I am neutral to slightly bearish. Long term, bullish. Reading all the indicators together, they are generally printing a hodgepodge of results from slightly bearish to slightly bullish signs with very few extremes. In a truly bearish or bullish market we'd be seeing far more alignment of either bias across the board. However, and above all, our correlation to the S&P500 is a very strong indication of BTC's tie to the global economy and sets a dark bearish cloud over all investments, with particularly high impact on risky assets like crypto. There are some key supports at play this week that could easily decide my bias with more conviction, and I'll be watching them closely: the weekly Tenkan support, futures premiums, BTC network momentum support, and Pi Cycle support. We're at all of these supports now. A strong bounce, I'd flip bullish. A breakdown, and we're purely bearish. I tend to favor the latter. I hope you guys enjoyed this meta analysis of BTC! I have years of experience trading crypto, but this is my first publication on TradingView. If you appreciated this post and would like to see more, a like or a follow would be greatly appreciated. Thanks, and happy trading! ____________________________________________________________________________ RESOURCES: ____________________________________________________________________________ Super Guppy TradingView Strategy: unable to link, but check my scripts for source. Includes backtesting, multiples settings, and different risk profiles. Golden Ratio Multiplier: medium.com Puell Multiple: medium.com Stock to Flow: medium.com Pi Cycle: There's a good section on this near the bottom of the Golden Ratio Multiplier article. BTC Network Momentum: blog.goodaudience.com
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by StanleyBostich
7
HPE sentiment is changingLast week I put up a post titled "HPE sentiment may change for the better," but the post got blocked because I had a link in there that the mods felt constituted advertising. Well, HPE sentiment has begun to change for the better, as I predicted, so I think this is worth an update and repost with the offending link removed. I track metrics of both value and sentiment, and I usually only buy a stock if measures of both value and sentiment are aligned. I've noticed, though, that there's more money to be made if you can pick a stock with good value and poor sentiment that's about to improve. HPE may be a candidate for just such a positive change in sentiment. Value I've struggled with how to calculate PEG ratios post-Covid. I generally take my earnings growth rate from an approximately five-year linear regression line (three years past actuals, two years future estimates). But when you've got a black swan event right in the middle of your time series, what do you do with that? Do you use a continuous function that makes the growth rate look negative? Or do you use a piecewise function that makes it look positive? I've settled on taking the average of the two. So, keep that in mind when I tell you that I've calculated HPE's PEG ratio at 3.39 and PSG ratio at 0.36. I typically multiply the two values together to get a composite PEG*PSG ratio, in this case 1.23. Of the stocks I track, the only one with a better PEG*PSG than this is $HPQ. HPE is also trading near the bottom of its 3-year valuation range in terms of forward P/E and forward P/S. It has generally traded at about .75 forward P/S. Right now it's about .47. Implicitly, there's about 59% upside from here. Do the same calculation with forward P/E, and the numbers imply about 40% upside from here. Another thing I really like about HPE is how innovative it is. Over the last three years, HPE has averaged 50 patents granted per billion dollars of current market cap, making it more innovative for its size than any other company I watch save IBM. Throw in the fact that HPE is expected to pay 4.8% in dividends over the next 12 months, and you've got a stock that combines both shareholder returns and growth potential. That's rare. Sentiment HPE's Equity Starmine Summary Score improved from 1.6/10 to 3.7/10 in the last 24 hours, meaning that analysts are growing more positive on the stock. The upgrade caused a nice spike in the stock price today. The sentiment change comes after HPE reported 3Q results and not only beat analyst expectations on earnings and revenue, but also beat analyst expectations on 4Q guidance. Analysts sharply increased earnings estimates for the next couple years after the earnings report. Perhaps even more importantly, HPE dramatically improved its financial health from the year-ago quarter. From the conference call: "Our Q3 free cash flow of $924 million was up $276 million year over year, driven by a record cash flow from operations as a result of our improved execution this quarter. . . . We generated cash flow from operations of approximately $1.5 billion. This is the highest level for the past 11 quarters, as we improved our operational execution." The company does expect cash flow to be sequentially lower next quarter due to restructuring, but the company is still in stellar shape financially, with an $8.5 billion cash reserve. Given HPE's strong results, I expect continued analyst upgrades. And I'm not alone in thinking so; HPE now has a bullish put/call ratio of 0.51. Technicals HPE's technicals are neutral at the moment, with the stock in a triangle. A couple ways to play it would be to buy near the bottom of the triangle or wait for an upside breakout. I do think there's a good chance HPE will make an upside breakout in the coming weeks, overall market conditions permitting.
NYSE:HPELong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
4
Topping up #AR9. Seems to be finding a base here.Topping up here TA, - Trend line support - 20EMA daily - Ascending triangle - RSI relatively oversold - Short term resistance at 0.6 show by high volume. Good place to take some profits if you intend to. Concerns, - Recent earnings and 50% loss in operating revenue. However, the earnings reaction was neutral which shows strong hands holding this. - If negative momentum continues, could see 0.35 in the short term. Should bounce there(first touch rejection 90% of the time) FA, Fundamentally, I am betting on the the team and the trust they've developed over the last 1.5 decades It's quite obvious that the next decade will be dominated by data,cloud and IoT. Cyber security is the back bone for this next paradigm and it is highly unlikely governments will outsource data security to a non-Australian company. AR9 has built this trust over the last 1.5 decades. Trust is hard to replicate on balance sheets.
ASX:AR9Long
by ashainp
1
Long term trend reversal thanks to CovidMost tech stocks have fared exceptionally well during the crash. Some of them were trending sideways for years or in a long term downtrend for many quarters. Covid was the catalyst that reversed their downtrend and proved their existence to the broader market. The uptrend is almost confirmed. Need to wick past the $100 level for full confirmation. I'll be looking to enter at a test of 120 EMA again. Ideal entry : Wick past 100 and retest that level + 120ema touch Seems unlikely when the optimism over tech stocks is high, but it will come.
NYSE:ESTCLong
by ashainp
IBM Mega TriangleIBM has been making this triangle chart pattern since 1997 and will forced to a decision point one way or the other by 2026. For some investment strategies, you have to perceive time like a tree. :) IBM's earnings and sales have been shrinking for many years-- EPS at a rate around 2.5% per year, and SPS at a rate around 0.25% per year. That makes this essentially a depreciating asset in terms of earnings and sales. The dividend over 5% offsets that somewhat, but IBM would need a growth strategy to break out to the upside. Despite technology leadership, the company has struggled to turn its technology into growth. IBM is still worth trading within the triangle, however. It's certainly worth a buy in the event it should drop to the bottom of the triangle range. I kind of like the idea of owning a piece of IBM's AI, because I think this technology eventually will drive a turnaround story for IBM and a return to earnings and sales growth. Among other things, IBM is partnering with Verizon to use its AI in Verizon's 5g. IBM will be a sell at triangle top until and unless the slopes of the earnings and sales trendlines begin to turn positive long-term.
NYSE:IBMLong
by ChristopherCarrollSmith
MIME entry: Fundamental and Technical analysisFundamental metrics - Gross margin > 70% - Just entered profitability with a net margin of 0.04% - Revenue growth 25.4% - Rule of 40 = 0.04+0.04 = 25.4 - Free cash flow growing slowly - The net revenue retention rate of 111%. Existing customer base alone has added 11% of revenue for the year ended 2019. 1100 new customers which is about a 30% increase - Financial health is a concern with a current ratio of only 1.04, interest coverage of 1.04 and a Debt/equity of 0.82 - Structural tailwinds due to growing adaption of cloud services and network hacking. - An organization would spend more funds on ensuring cybersecurity, detecting threats and protecting data. Remember, data is the new oil. TA, - Lower Bollinger band accumulation -4H/Daily RSI buy - 5EMA trending up - 0.5 Fib support - Daily level support - Ascending wedge?
MLong
by ashainp