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Cloudflare

CLOUDFLARE ($NET) longNote: - NYSE:NET - Reverse play of the last phase of extreme growth and consolidation - Software companies have been depreciated comparatively strongly in the last consolidation - Hot sector - Chart setting up nicely (support around 127$) - EMAs coming together - Fundamentals are great Disclaimer and Info: - No guarantee for the correctness of information or calculations - No advice or investment advice - All numbers in '000 US dollars (1.234 = 1.23 million USD) Company profile from Wikipedia: Cloudflare, Inc. is an American web infrastructure and website security company that provides content delivery network and DDoS mitigation services. Its services occur between a website's visitor and the Cloudflare customer's hosting provider, acting as a reverse proxy for websites. Its headquarters are in San Francisco. Main sources for data: - Investor Presentation 30. Sep. 2021 - Trading View - Own calculations Customers (new customers): FY2020Q3: 100.968 FY2020Q4: 111.183 (10.215) FY2021Q1: 119.206 (8.023) FY2021Q2: 126.735 (7.529) FY2021Q3: 132.390 (5.655) FY2021Q3: t.b.d. Customers with >100k$ (new customers >100k$): FY2020Q3: 736 FY2020Q4: 828 (92) FY2021Q1: 945 (117) FY2021Q2: 1.088 (143) FY2021Q3: 1.260 (172) FY2021Q3: t.b.d. Non-GAAP Gross Margin (= Gross Profit / Revenue): FY2018: 78% FY2019: 78% FY2020: 78% FY2020Q3: 76,35% FY2020Q4: 76,92% FY2021Q1: 76,76% FY2021Q2: 77,02% FY2021Q3: 78,23% FY2021Q4: t.b.d. DBNER (Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate): DBNER (aka. Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate) is one of the most important KPIs, especially for SaaS and other software companies. The DBNER measures how much more sales (revenue) a certain cohort of customers (usually those from last year) has also spent in the current year. Calculation of the DBNER: As a rule, the DBNER is calculated by dividing the sales of all customers who were still customers on the last day of a period (e.g. December 31, 2021) by the sales of the same customers in the previous period (base period, e.g. the year 2020). Important: The sales of customers who have canceled in the current period (2021) and new customers who were not customers in the base period (2020) are not considered. If you want to measure the ability to retain and increase sales (revenue retention) including terminations, the NRR (aka. Net Revenue Retention) is a better indicator in this case. What is a good DBNER? A DBNER of 112%, for example, would mean that a company's existing customers have spent an average of 12% more this year than in the previous year. Often the DBNER is in the range of 105-130%. Values ​​over 130% indicate a strong growth in spending within customer accounts. The DBNER is important because the simultaneous acquisition of new customers and a growing willingness to pay among existing customers can ideally lead to exponential growth. The so-called "Land and Expand" strategy, which tries to continuously increase sales of new customers, is essential for sustainable growth of software companies. If the DBNER falls below 100%, that means customers spend less and less on the company's services. At best, the decline can be compensated with the acquisition of many new customers. Ways to increase the DBNER are the sale of additional products, services and modules, the expansion of licenses to include new workstations and instances or the enforcement of volume or consumption-based business models. FY2019Q1: 118% FY2019Q2: 122% FY2019Q3: 121% FY2019Q4: 119% FY2020Q1: 117% FY2020Q2: 115% FY2020Q3: 116% FY2020Q4: 119% FY2021Q1: 123% FY2021Q2: 124% FY2021Q3: 124% FY2021Q4: t.b.d. Rule of "40": The "Rule of 40" ( aka . "Rule of Forty") is one of the simplest and most important SaaS and software metrics. This KPI was developed by the US-based software venture capital fund Bessemer Venture Partners. It tries to relate the growth and profitability of a company. The revenue growth and the free cash flow margin (also (non-GAAP) operating margin or adjusted EBITDA margin) are added as a measure of profitability. If the sum of the two values ​​results in a value greater than 40 , empirical data are used to assume that this is a very healthy company. The rule of 40 is particularly meaningful for software or subscription companies with high gross margins. The background to the relationship is that a company that is growing rapidly but is still losing money can be just as attractive or even more attractive than a company that is profitable but only grows more slowly. In addition, companies can often actively decide whether they want to give up profitability in order to grow even faster or save marketing costs and instead accept slow growth but deliver more EBIT . At the same time, a situation in which a company is neither profitable nor grows significantly faster than 20% can quickly become threatening. Often these companies do not achieve sufficient economies of scale and operating leverage to be profitable and sustainable in the long term. Therefore, the following applies quite casually: Either grow quickly or make a profit! If both of these don't work, the company often find itself in a dead end. FY2020Q3: 50,41% FY2020Q4: 45,70% FY2021Q1: 45,87% FY2021Q2: 50,21% FY2021Q3: 52,26% FY2021Q4: t.b.d. Sales Efficiency (aka Magic Number): The "Magic Number" is a KPI of the sales efficiency of SaaS and subscription companies. It goes back to the venture capital fund Bessemer Venture Partners, which specializes in SaaS companies in the US. To calculate the Magic Number, the newly acquired Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) is annualized and related to sales and marketing expenses. Calculation: Specifically, you subtract the sales of the previous quarter from today's sales and multiply the difference by 4. Because the additional quarterly sales will accrue every year from now on, so it becomes ARR or annually recurring sales. This annualized turnover is now calculated from the marketing expenses of the previous period - because these have caused the increase in sales - and the result is a number that is usually between 0.5 and 2. FY2020Q3: 0,84 FY2020Q4: 0,76 FY2021Q1: 0,82 FY2021Q2: 1,05 FY2021Q3: t.b.d. FY2021Q4: t.b.d. If the magic number is below 0.5, there is probably no product market fit. No invest in marketing is needed. If the magic number is between 0.5 and 0.75, you are probably spending the right amount in marketing and sales and the amount should rather be optimized operationally. If the magic number is above 0.75 or even above 1, you should definitely try to spend even more money on acquisition, i.e. via marketing and sales.
NYSE:NETLong
by trustindata
2
Cloudflare teaching moment. Meteoric rise = catastrophic dump.Hi everyone, Today I would like to share a piece of knowledge on parabolic growth and poor market structures. Let us take a look at NYSE:NET Cloudflare stock. This was an attractive buy back in 2020. As always, nobody saw that until everyone started screaming about this stock on Twitter. I saw an opportunity in investing into Cloudflare later in 2021 for a long-term. I did not know what's coming. At the beginning of October, after a decent sell-off something strange began happening. Stock rose TWELVE days in a row. And not just stayed barely positive, it gained insane 68% in price during this short period. Right there I knew this was not sustainable and price won't last up there for long. Yes, I sold at 175 . Yes, I missed a run up to 220 . But, really, did I? Noone can predict the top. But you can predict the inevitable downfall. The Lesson. Look at the chart. You see the price in the first box going parabolicly up. The price took off to the moon and was hovering up in the air. Thus, poor structure has been created. There is no single support level from 137 to 182 . The Market hates poor weak structures and it tends to repair them sooner or later. That is exactly what happened with Cloudflare stock. Price has been flushed from 204 down to 123 as fast as it flew up there back in October. You can see that in the second box. The structure has been repaired. A lot of data points were created in the process, which will help with the analysis in the future. This might be a rebirth of Cloudflare stock constituting healthy future movement. Trade wisely and good luck! ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer!!! This is not financial advise
NYSE:NETEducation
by AyBe_Invest
2
NET, Daily, Deep Crab NYSE:NET $NET CloudFlare, Daily, Deep Crab ------------------------------------------------------- Buying between 130.54 - 145.49 Sell @ Target I : 165.58 , Target 2 187.23 DISCLAIMER: I am not a financial /investment advisor. All information i am sharing here is for entertainment purposes only and should not be considered personal investment advice. While the information provided is accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. Please, do your diligence when it comes to investing or trading in the market. You are responsible on your choice. Thank you
NYSE:NETLong
by adhamdallou
Will NET Bring Cloud Back To Life?NET NYSE:NET is a riskier play at this moment due to the overall weakness in tech stock and market conditions. But, in comparison to other companies in this sector NET is holding up fairly well and showing some relative strength. NET tried to get over $76 today and failed to hold above. Testing a strong support zone for the third time over the past two months and looks like we may be starting to bounce. Volume has been accumulating with 4 out of the last 6 days trading above NET's daily volume average. POC on the daily chart is right at $82.51 lvl. If SPY/QQQ can start to breakout this week $$ should flow back into the tech stocks and the cloud sector which has taken a solid beating can see some bullish movement. Ideally, we gap up to $78 and form an island reversal. But, a play over $76 with the right market conditions looks primed for a good swing. EMA's serving as a resistance above in the 78-79 range, tough lvls to get through in the Low Volume Node (LVN) 4/16 $80 calls will be my swing of choice (4.35/4.65). IV is very low 21% IV percentile on NET and if the market starts to move back up these can pay out well! *I entered a small NET position this week and will add more on break of $76 with volume.
NYSE:NETLong
by DOpeTrades
1
Long idea on $NET Cloudflare with ema as support + bullish trendIdea: 4hour chart: 200ema support, daily chart: 50ema currently us as support and 0.236 fib level as buy range in bullish trend with higher lows. 1). Limit Buy: 38$ 2). Limit Buy: 38.20$ 3). Limit Buy: 38.44$ Average price: 38.269$ 1). Take Profit: 41.75$ (+8.95%) 2). Take Profit: 42.29$ (+10.73%) 3). Take Profit: 49.90$ (+30.52%) Stop Loss: 37.20$(-2.69%) 4 Hour-Chart(Longer timeframe): Daily-Chart: What do you think? Share your idea and enjoy our opinion. REMOVE YOUR BIAS! Thanks, Disziplinierter_Trader
NYSE:NETLong
by UnknownUnicorn2089696
Cloudflare buy zone and target after earningsCloudflare earnings 1. Revenue growth: +48% yoy Margins: 75,8% EPS: -0.3 vs estsimates -0.6, 100% surprise 2. Annual Client Net Retention: 115% 3. Cash on balance sheet: 2,74 years 4. Spending efficiency (growth to cash spend): 0,87x Source: cloudflare.net 2/3 $NET. Trend continues w CAGR of 50% and high margins. Company delivering on both soft and hard fronts. Cloudflare Workers up 440%. CEO M. Prince describes how savvy Amazon Web Services customers move to Cloudflares services. Short term target: 50 USD GRIT Score anlyses for Q2: 5,24 to 7,77* . (Growth + Retention + In the bank + Targeted Spend ). Where 3-4 is good, 4-6 is better and >6 is best. *I usually use total cost here vs cost of revenue. The latter of course gives a higher Grit score.
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NYSE:NETLong
by kulturdesken
14
FSLY- When the momentum stock loses its momentumTrend line is temporarily broken and there was no strong bounce back after the price crashed to the confluence zone of POC, 50 SMA and fib 38.2 level, indicating a weak demand at this lvl. There is little sign of decreasing selling pressure at this moment. If FSLY doesn't get back above the resistance and supply zone of 90 convincingly in the next days, party may indeed be over. Generally speaking, when you see the momentum stock decline significantly after the positive earning, this should be your first warning sign that investors are disappointed that the stock fails to live up to their lofty expectation. This is especially true for momentum stocks with lofty valuation. Market tops are often made when stocks react negatively to positive earning or when stocks stop going up on positive news. It is possible though that the short-term negative sentiment is caused by the TikTok news, but it is undeniable that the growth of enterprise clients for FSLY has slowed down recently. The overall macro is still good for Fastly though as E-commerce is still thriving. I am also bullish on the cybersecurity industry as whole and another market-leading CDN in the edge computing space you can capitalize on is NET. Thank you for reading through my analysis! Don't forget to click the like and follow me :)
NYSE:FSLY
by Libratus