BTC, Fibs, Market Psychology, and You: A Primer The Setup
I've identified a compelling technical setup that suggests BTC could be heading toward the $9,000-$9,850 range. This isn't just another bearish call - it's based on a rare convergence of multiple technical factors that I've rarely seen align so perfectly in my 18 years of trading markets.
Technical Confluence Zone
What makes this setup particularly compelling is the convergence of multiple independent technical factors around the same price zone:
1. Unfilled CME Gap : The Bitcoin futures chart shows a persistent unfilled gap from 2020 between $9,655 and $9,850. This gap has survived multiple market cycles without being filled, making it increasingly significant.
2. Key Fibonacci Level : The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level sits at $9,024.11, remarkably close to the lower bound of the CME gap when accounting for the typical futures premium over spot.
3. Elliott Wave Structure : The current price action suggests we're in Wave 4 of a larger Elliott Wave pattern. Wave 4 corrections often retrace to previous Wave 1 territory, which aligns with this target zone.
4. Fibonacci Time Cycles : The time component is equally important - Fibonacci time extensions suggest we're approaching a potential inflection point in the current cycle.
Market Context Supports the Technical Picture
The technical setup doesn't exist in a vacuum. Several market conditions increase the probability of this scenario playing out:
1. Market Saturation : The crypto ecosystem has expanded dramatically, with thousands of tokens diluting liquidity that was once concentrated in major cryptocurrencies.
2. Retail Exhaustion : Retail investors who entered during previous hype cycles feel unrewarded despite price recoveries, leading to diminished enthusiasm and buying pressure.
3. Institutional Distribution: Wall Street and institutions have made their presence known, which historically signals they've distributed their high-priced holdings to retail while preparing short positions.
4. Concentrated Leverage Risk : MicroStrategy's position of 499,500 BTC at a $66,000 average purchase price, funded almost entirely by massive debt issuance, creates a significant systemic vulnerability. A move toward our target zone would put extreme pressure on their balance sheet.
Broader Market Context
This analysis also coincides with what looks to be a tired stock market following the 2024 US presidential election. With Donald Trump winning his second term, we have seen significant policy shifts that are actively impacting both traditional and crypto markets. Historically, markets often experience increased volatility during transitions of power, and the confluence of this political shift with our technical setup creates an even more compelling case for caution.
Additionally, price precedes news. The news is created on price. If you're hearing about an event, the trade has already been made. There is too much talk of unprecedented institutional participation. This is another sign that retail is being distributed to for the next meltdown. Bags were already offloaded. It's time to drop the anchor.
Historical Perspective
Having traded through multiple market cycles since 2007 I've seen this pattern before. Large players often target overleveraged positions to acquire assets at distressed prices. Michael Saylor experienced a leveraged meltdown once before during the dot-com crash - history doesn't repeat, but it often rhymes. Saylor is a designated whipping boy. A patsy. He will be rewarded well for his participation in fleecing you, so don't worry about what kind of skin he has in the game.
With that said, I believe an undetermined Black Swan event will be necessary to complete the rug pull. What that is, I cannot know.
Trading Implications
This analysis suggests several potential trading strategies:
1. Risk Management : Reduce exposure to Bitcoin and high-beta altcoins until this technical target is reached or invalidated.
2. Opportunity Preparation : Build dry powder positions to capitalize on what could be an exceptional buying opportunity if BTC reaches the $9,000-$9,850 zone.
3. Watch for Triggers : Monitor for breakdowns below key support levels that could accelerate the move toward our target zone.
4. Time-Based Entries : Use the Fibonacci time cycle extensions to refine entry timing if the price approaches our target zone.
Conclusion
While Bitcoin's long-term prospects remain strong, the confluence of technical factors pointing to the $9,000-$9,850 range suggests a significant correction may occur before the next sustained bull run. The catalysts to reach what should be a $250k range this cycle simply do not exist, and with waning macroeconomic strength, the odds of this cycle being anything other than a massive bulltrap are low. This setup represents one of the strongest technical cases I've seen. I also don't care to share my ideas often, but with everyone expecting a typical crypto market cycle, I feel compelled to offer my take on a public forum--for whatever it may be worth.
I am not shorting this market. I have removed my capital and taken an observant position. While I feel strongly about my idea--Clown World has fully taken hold and I don't dare test its resolve to break me.
Remember that no analysis is guaranteed - always manage risk accordingly and be prepared to adapt as the market evolves.
*Disclaimer: This analysis represents my personal view of the markets based on technical analysis and market observations. It should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and trade responsibly.*
Clownworld
coin short more info$COIN has been stuck in a downward channel since 08/08/22. Thanks to its obvious symbiotic relationship with $BTC it is sitting at the top of this channel. Thank you jim crammer for that pump. Yet with the recent doubled top forming around this resistance of 57.33; then adding the selling pressure from the CEOs recents sales. As well as Surojit's separation, which includes a lumbsum payout as well as shares. Its time for a retest of the middle of this trend before we can see any more of a rally. With $BTC consolidating around 23k its my belief $COIN will take this time to come down for its back test. Call me a clown, but I put money on it.
The start of a long train of woes for housingThis one will be super simple, not much to be stated here.
With big corp and foreign investments going into housing not just in the states but globally, we are seeing some really crazy stuff in housing.
This chart looks at new one family houses sold vs new housing permits and privately owned housing units total. In my honest opinion housing is, like everything, in a bubble and worse off it's reflecting the fomo that was in the markets prior to the downturn. Sadly I dont see an end to this housing insanity, not until a new economy rears it's head. This is only adding to the bond issues.
Bonds dont like the clown showThe selling in bonds continues as inflation continues on. Wings in my area are almost $10/lb, highest i have seen this in my life (only 28 tho). Most of the time I check to see if there is any short term bond buying, this time however, short term bonds are selling too. It would seem that investors are spooked, Investors really have no where to run at this point. Crypto winter is here, Stocks did great today but those gains are no longer viable with a hawkish fed, homes are skyrocketing but people are already warning of a top, businesses have a labor shortage and with inflation it's obvious investors do not see US debt as a safe haven anymore. At least for now. I will keep you all updated. Hope you all have your popcorn at the ready.
Doge play it smart!- i am so tired to see Elon Musk playing with Doge retailers, what you have to know is Elon not Hodl BTC at all, he just hold 0.1 BTC offered by one of his friend, he doesn't want BTC simply because he cannot control it.
- So he turned his business on Doge because he just wants to control 51% of the market, like a company, if u have 51%, you are the boss.
- Elon's "calls" on Twitter have a name in Wall Street, it called : "insider Trading" and it's normally heavily punished by the law.
- Don't think because this guy is the richest on the planet means he's a good person, that would blind your eyes, he just wants more and more, like Romans and Napoleon did.
- Just look how Doge acted in this Bullmarket and you will understand everything, People's are loosing faith in Musk, he's now considered as a "Clown".
- So Play Doge as a TRADER ! and you won't Rekt!, Wait for "The Clown" Calls on Twitter and buy. Make your profits and Sell, then wait again.
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Trading Plan
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- Buy : 0.15 ish ( DONT BUY NOW )
- Buy : 0.25 ish ( BUY ONLY IF DOGE PASS 0.25 )
- TP : 0.35-0.37 ( BIG ICHIMOKU RESISTANCE )
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Happy Tr4Ding !
GME and the day the brokers said f*** youI am not a legal financial advisor or consultant, everything shown here is strictly for learning purposes and is of my own opinion. Please do your own research and due diligence and never take any one persons words as 100% truth. GME, GME, GME. man oh man what a year GME had. this failing business had the perfect idea to get back on it's feet and what did the hedgies do? Shot the living crap out of it, would have fail if not for WSB. (LOOKING AT YOU SEC LOSERS) Now this stock has become a meme stock and brokers around the world hat it so much some platforms are still restricting the buy and sell of it. I think in this regard, GME is doomed. And so is this legal and financial system to boot. Profitism is a cancer that caused half of 2020 and 2021 problems (the other half by it shall not be named) If anything GME has lost a bit of money and we will see this trend continue as a financial tug of war happens between short hedgies and WSB yolo trades. It's such a clown show people.
SPX: Just don'tIt's worth noting that, just like in February and the market was full risk-on and people were bullish, all-while the pandemic was hitting our shores, here we are again. The pattern is striking. The pandemic is fading, but we're on the cusp of a much bigger problem. You invest your money the way you want to, if you were bullish in February, just don't.
DXY ready to reverse
RSI losing strength
UVXY back down where were were last time
SPX forming ascending wedge with no support below
We facing shutdowns again
Trump is......not going anywhere LOL.
SPX: Almost thereI don't think this is THE crash. We need someone to blame it on. Currently there is no "culprit" just a random sell day. The Siege on the W.H. is going to be perfect for this task, they'll be able to mask the corrupt monetary policy while vilifying America's left wing an yet another response to the CCP.
I'm convinced that the establishment wants Trump in office because his base is better fit to take on China, who is currently the biggest threat to their order. The protests are a honey pot to attract the most radical in the country. These are people you need to weed out before heading into war.
MCD to 200 (still out of the flag) MCD is next. Ronal fucking mcdonald dude. Perfect breakout and catch. Right out of a bull flag BUT now it’s back in it’s triangle. PT is still 200. Calls we have are for August so will see what the rest of the week brings. Contract down a bit but we’ve got some time. For those who missed out we could be seeing better buying opportunity. Looking at the chart again it is still out of the flag so bullish run til earnings maybe. Will monitor.
LONG TERM XRP/USDHere is my macro view. I think the dollar is going to be very strong over the next couple years. I also believe that crypto currency will bottom and reverse before equities do. You see it correctly. I'm calling for a 2 cent zerp. Yes, occasionally I do hear voices.
Oh, leave your crazed fantasies of Lambos and what-not below.
S&P 500 Long term. Down but for how long?We're heading toward the .65 - .618 of the overall trend, where very powerful MAs and a macro trend line converge, along with the .618 of my proposed 1 wave of the macro 5th. The question is, will the FED be able/willing to keep the market above this trend line or will they let deflation take the market to the very edge of the trend? This would still be an internal retracement to the .887 level of said 1 wave.
I want to say there is no way we're going that low, but my theory that we're in the beginning phases of the destruction of the CCP tells me there is going to be a massive trade war at the very least. An all out trade war, mixed with the CaRony Viruth, and an oil price war is plenty to mask the fundamental flaws of the monetary system, long enough to kick the can down the road another couple decades.